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The real estate market is undoubtedly one of the most dynamic markets in the global scenario, and Al Mazaya Holding Company ensures that you remain updated about the latest developments and trends in the property market. We invite you to browse through our exhaustive media library to know more about global and regional markets so that you are in a position to make informed decisions when it comes to your property investments.
World economy faces real challenge under interest rate fluctuations, fund and real estate sectors and growth trends
Government resolutions are no longer the sole or leading influence on the actual and non-actual growth rates that world economies experience with development plans and strategies under execution, also contributing to economic boom or recession.
It is now becoming evident that more significant resolutions directly and indirectly influence the economies of countries, provoked by large players taking critical decisions related to: guiding their own economies, controlling growth trends, and eliminating inflation and recession.
Further, a large number of countries are not able to stop the aforementioned influences, positively or negatively, given that decisions are being taken that seemingly neglect the local economic trends, particular to each country.
Also evident is the fact that countries have different capacities for handling developments and directly estimating their positive or negative consequences. A major example, in this regard, is the decision taken in the last week by the US Federal Reserve[AC1] , to increase interest rates. On the face of it, this decision will allow flexibility and investment preferences that motivate capital movement towards the US economy. However, this will cause a wider, more negative impact on the world economy as a whole.
As such, Al-Mazaya Holdings Weekly Real-Estate Report stresses on the current requirement for quality and influential decisions since the world economy needs to face a real and direct challenge to define its real strength and actual growth rates, materialising since 2008.
Development plans and strategies, in the coming years, need to be amended in direct relation to the results of the actual challenge, with consideration for the fact that each country should adopt financial and economic decisions that aim to maximise the benefit of increased interest rates on the US financial system and eliminating the negative consequences on their economies.
The US increasing its interest rates does not necessitate that each country with a currency pegged to the USD should increase its own domestic interest rates, in parallel with any US decision. This is true, especially, when you consider that many countries do not enjoy the near zero-interest rate prevailing in the US system.
Taking the decision to amend interest rates from previous levels may burden the economies of a large number of countries with financial liabilities and new deficits, without yielding any positive results on any other area. Therefore, preventive measures and piecemeal decisions should be planned related to the amount of impact on financial and economic sectors, as well as the interrelatedness between the US economy and the rest of world’s financial systems.
As to the effect of the recent interest rate rise on real estate and financial sectors within the US on other world economies, this Al-Mazaya Report concludes that it will not cause changes to all kinds of interests as the effect will be centered around short-term interest as financial market funds return. While the effect is not largely seen on long-term real estate mortgage rates and interest on consumable loans, such effects are thought to be centred on the interest rates of credit cards.
It should be equally noted here that tangible changes on interest rates offered to clients, based on the credit status of the loan applicant, are still awaited, with less reliable applicants set to bear higher interest rates – due to the associated higher risks on repayments. The same will apply on companies and governments seeking finance by issuing or selling treasury bonds. On the other hand, these implications will be positive to depositors, in the short-term, as returns on deposits, financial exchange markets and treasury bills will increase, after what has been a relatively long-term overall decrease.
The Bond markets will experience a variety of negative implications affected by higher interest rates and anticipations of increasing inflation. For stocks, it is slightly different: higher interest rates means economic growth, causing extra profits and returns for companies. In such conditions, this usually leads to a general increase on stock prices.
The Al-Mazaya Report refers to multiple pros and cons of raising interest rates in the US on other countries’ economies. The decision requires further study and evaluation on growth and regression of employment rates since higher interest rates correspond to higher employment and flexible wages, adapting to the surrounding business environment.
Inflation plays a significant role in this regard as well, where central bank estimates revolve around consumer indexes, personal consumption, goods and services indexes. Therefore, when the Consumer Price Index is higher than the target level, increasing the interest rate will negatively impact other economic indices.
Speaking of the correlation between world markets and signs of instability reflected in the world economy, taking as a starting point the recent global financial crises and the increasing elasticity of world financial markets, the increase on interest rates to the current levels will impose new burdens on many countries.
As for the USD rate, increased interest will negatively impact the USD exchange rate and, therefore, negatively impact on NET exports. The increase of USD rate will reduce the demand on US goods because of their higher costs. As such, higher interest rates will impact the exchange rates of the currencies of many other developing countries, reducing their rates – the Chinese Yuan for example.
The USD will also create a strong barrier limiting the growth of developing countries in this regard urging capital to migrate to the US via investments in stock and real estate markets. Ultimately, this will impose additional pressure on these countries while they seek to provide stability and growth within the international economy as a whole.
The Al-Mazaya Report also refers to the parallel increase of interest rates in Saudi Arabia, provoked by the US Federal Reserve[AC2] interest rate increase. As the Kingdom mostly depends on oil revenues, which have seen an almost halving of the cost per barrel in recent years, Saudi Arabia has maintained its expansionist monetary policy during 2014 and 2015. This is a trend that is now under revision, in light of deceasing oil prices and the US Federal Bank increasing interest rates causing economic draw back.
A tighter monetary policy under higher interest rates with the SR linked to USD is, therefore, not feasible in the long-term. In the same context, the tighter financial resolutions will directly affect long-term finance costs and real estate purchase rates, since interest constitutes a major portion of real estate loans. This fact will simultaneously affect citizens’ solvency and trends to purchase convenient real estate. This will ultimately have a negative affect on the Kingdom’s real-estate market.
The Al-Mazaya Report would also point to the fact that the same implications may take place at other markets where local currencies are pegged to the USD.
Based on the most recent updates, the Al-Mazaya Report stresses that developing countries will face additional pressures which will lead to more fluctuations in world markets. The upturns in their economies creates fear against investors turning to purchase USD. The negative effects will multiply in young markets, based on World Bank’s statements, if cash flows are being redirected towards US assets, which will most probably cause economic instability if capitals rapidly migrate.
Four GCC banks have raised their interest rates in response to the US Federal Bank’s decision to raise US interest rates. These include Saudi Arabian, Kuwaiti, Bahraini and UAE banks.
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