Periodic Real Estate Reports

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The real estate market is undoubtedly one of the most dynamic markets in the global scenario, and Al Mazaya Holding Company ensures that you remain updated about the latest developments and trends in the property market. We invite you to browse through our exhaustive media library to know more about global and regional markets so that you are in a position to make informed decisions when it comes to your property investments.

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Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Real Estate Report

Amid High Demand and Diversity of Investment Opportunities

Al Mazaya’s Report: Health Care Projects are facing competitiveness and high cost risks as they pursue growth

The success or failure of vital projects depends mainly on the nature of the targeted area and forecasts of future demands. At the same time, the individual ability of each project to generate cash flow and contribute to the GDP of any economy depends on specifying the volume and type of these projects and the appropriate timing to invest in them. Remarkably, the investment and expansion plans of countries in the region are developed based on specific economic sectors, through which the pace of economic activity can be raised to the levels of developed countries. This can also help diversify economic activities and income.

When discussing health care projects with regards to domestic demand and providing the community with key services, they are classified under the appropriate development sectors. Meanwhile, if we are talking about expanding health care services at the regional and global level, their importance vastly increases and we can begin discussing them in terms of successful or unsuccessful investments. It is noteworthy here that several of the region’s countries have plans in place for the development of health care services, given their remarkable role in increasing the pace of financial and economic activity. Their positive impact on the establishment of work for many other sectors is also a factor, in addition to developing the level of competition at the global level and raising the countries’ capabilities to develop their financial resources in the long run.

In this regard, we cannot address health care projects in the countries of the region over the past ten years without mentioning the evolution in real estate and tourism sectors.  Commenting on this aspect, Al Mazaya Holding’s weekly real estate report points out that the nature and objectives of real estate projects that targeted foreign investments have been developed, taking into account ways to increase their ability to compete in the global tourism market. This development has seen an increase in healthcare projects, which have become attractive investments from both the public and the private sectors.

It is worth mentioning that the accelerating development of infrastructure projects in many countries that has been reported is a key factor in their relative success or failure in general terms, as well as with regards to the projects related to tourism and health care in particular. It is important to note here that health care projects in the countries of the region have enjoyed significant successes, but there are still a great deal of obstacles and challenges facing them – some of these projects have succeeded in providing services at the local level, while others have succeeded in developing their capabilities to offer competitive services on a global scale, and have also successfully attracted investments.Other countries are still seeking to meet the domestic demand within the framework of development plans, which are often influenced by local and global financial and economic developments.

Al Mazaya’s report stressed the importance of health care projects that have been completed and those which are under construction in the countries – these fall into the category of creating investment and job opportunities for many of the economic sectors, as the health services sector is overlapping and intertwining with other sectors.These investments can be classified under the plans and projects of the region’s countries, which focus on investments that attract foreign investments, as well as scientific and technical efficiencies. Here it is relevant to stress the importance of developing services provided at the local and regional level, which in providing a suitable alternative in the countries of the region will reduce the cost of treatment abroad.

Al Mazaya’s report asserts that the projects and investments in this sector are still vital and viable at the financial and economic level.  In addition, they offer many positive aspects for the support of the rest of the sectors activities, as well as maintaining a minimum of economic activity needed by the countries of the region in light of the reported decline of spending and of the offered projects both quantitatively and qualitatively. Consequently, we can say that the successes achieved so far can contribute to creating more qualitative projects that ensure the sector’s continuity, growth, contribution to the development of the sources of income and granting of the economies of countries in the region more resistance to financial and economic pressures.

Al Mazaya’s report states that the health care projects are a priority at the moment, which supports the significance of introducing more projects that provide greater specialization and quality of services. This comes at a time when the world is going through a trend towards a healthier lifestyle. Thus, the viability of health projects of all kinds is improving – a fact which serves to motivate investment in these kinds of projects. The increase in demand has contributed to the expansion of services and investment opportunities. Activities like jogging are considered a serious opportunity to invest in the development of specific projects, for example: the preparation of athletes participating in races, increasing the number of gyms, and investment in sports equipment. In addition, according Al Mazaya’s report, the prevalence of large sporting events and their associated advertising opportunities and related economic projects offer assurances that the health care sector will be constantly developing. It also discusses how the coming years will see more demand for health services, with a trend towards increased fitness and sporting activities to ward off diseases and obesity.

Al Mazaya’s report states that the UAE’s experience in this field is advanced and capable of application in various countries in the region, where the successes achieved depended on the overall development of key economic sectors, as well as the application of laws and regulations which attract and encourage investment. In addition, the economic diversity of the state contributed to the development of the health care sector. At present, all economic sectors are able to support the growth and sustainability of the sector, coming as it does at a time when the growth expectations by 2020 are likely to exceed the healthcare market volume in the country by more than 71 billion dirhams – right now, the UAE accounts for 26% of the total expenditure of GCC governments on health care. The UAE is one of the first countries in the region to encourage investment in medical tourism and facilitating the entry of patients to the state.

It is noteworthy that by the year 2021, the health sector in the state will have fulfilled all international standards and will be able to attract large numbers of tourists to be cured. 40 billion dirhams were spent on the health sector in the state in 2015 and the therapeutic tourism sector growth rates hit 15%. Following on from that, we can surmise that the UAE will be the capital of medical tourism in the next few years, accounting for the largest share of the coming therapeutic tourism to the Middle East. This continuous development of the sector services will solve a lot of problems, foremost of which is the reduction of the cost of treatment abroad on the one hand and raising the number of foreign tourists coming for treatment on the other hand.

Al Mazaya’s report stresses the importance of maintaining the progress and development of the services provided by the health sector in the region’s countries. This is due to the high demand for health services, as well at the importance of maintaining the competitiveness and ability to attract investment and beneficiaries of the advanced medical services. The report also states that the sector’s stakeholders should reduce the costs of treatment and health services by launching more projects and expanding and diversifying their range of services. In addition, the report states that the private sector must be given more freedom to carry out projects in order to prevent them being affected by the recorded decrease in the budgets of Gulf governments due to lower oil revenues – this will ensure the continued establishment of health centers and construction of hospitals and clinics, as well as the development of the current infrastructure of the sector.

Al Mazaya’s report asserts that all of the indicators displayed by the health care sector point to an increase in spending on health care, high costs, and that the countries of the region’s health services still needs to overcome a number of challenges to raise the level of health services provided, which is still lower than the levels specified by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. In addition, there is a lot of work needed to increase health care efficiency in the region and overcome the challenges of financing that prevent a takeover of the private sector on advanced shares. The report also guarantees that the health care sector is still enjoying a lot of good investment opportunities, which hardly exist in other major economic sectors.

Al Mazaya Holding showcases special promotion at Cityscape Exhibition

Own an apartment in Queue Point -Dubai Land from just AED 520,000

Al Mazaya, one of the Middle East’s leading real estate development companies, is taking part in the Cityscape Exhibition by showcasing its new promotion: the opportunity to own an apartment in Queue Point – Dubai Land from just AED 520,000.

Al Mazaya’s Chairman, CEO and entire team are currently present at the exhibition, which takes place from 21st to 23rd September. As well as the remarkable price for a modern apartment in a prime location – part of the Queue Point Project – the promotion involves the offer of a free furnished kitchen during the duration of the exhibition, relaxed payments, generous financing of up to 75% from a reputable financing firm, a 20% discount on furniture from Options Furniture Center, and a chance to win an investment with a yield of up to 8%.

Al Mazaya Chairman, Rashid Yacob Al Nafisi said “Dubai’s property market has sustained its momentum, based on a strong and sustainable foundation of resurgent growth in the UAE. Appetite for apartments is very high, especially in areas in prime locations like Dubai Land. With the imminent arrival of globally renowned events such as the World Expo 2020, we expect the market to continue to grow apace”.

Al Mazaya CEO, Eng.Ibrahim Al Saqabi, said “Building on the success of the Queue Point Project and other initiatives, Al Mazaya is excited to continue to grow and expand, to reinforce our reputation for thinking big and creating value. We are in the process of working on several new ambitious projects, both in the region and in Turkey”.

Al Saqabi continued saying the total basket of sales in the exhibition is around 182 apartments comprising total sales value of AED 150 millions and the remaining percentage after achieving a total sales of 70% of projects and the percentage of completion of 75%

After 5 years of not participating but visiting Cityscape Al Mazaya felt that now is the time that after witnessing UAE’s recovery and especially Dubai, we have seen the size of participants increase more than 5 times compared to last year’s figures that reflects a serious movement towards more developments in the region and this is translated by the enormous number of projects that were launched in the exhibition and the quality of showcasing that was noticed.

In addition Al Saqabi elaborated on the increase of number of Turkish companies participating in the exhibition, bringing attention to Al Mazaya’s latest joint venture agreement with one of the biggest Turkish real estate companies in Istanbul named Dumankaya who are participating as well and showcasing many projects in Istanbul.

The response to the promotion on the first day of the exhibition was outstanding, as expected. Many visitors expressed interest which is anticipated to be built upon significantly till the end of the exhibition.

Al Mazaya took the chance of showcasing the rest of its projects in the region like Al Mazaya Logistics in Bahrain which is anticipated to be completed and set for lease by the first quarter of the coming year.

Appreciate publishing the report on Tuesday 23 September 2014 Deep appreciation for your cooperation. Walid Al Qadoumi

Infrastructure Projects Provide Robust Investment Momentum

GCC States Forging Ahead with Infrastructure Investments Despite Economic Challenges

Large-scale infrastructure projects play a major role in a country’s drive for development. They are inseparably associated with urban growth and development, as manifested through the economies of the Gulf region. Such enterprises are conducive to opening up fresh vistas of investment, ultimately resulting in strengthening the economy.

In its weekly report, Al Mazaya Holding summarised the benefits of infrastructure projects as follows: developing economy-strengthening plans and strategies; providing an investment momentum; enabling economies to survive challenges; coping with economic changes, developments and variables; providing investors with sufficient business opportunities; and creating an investment-friendly environment.

The report added that despite the financial and economic pressures, the region’s countries are forging ahead with their developmental and expansion infrastructure plans, and are set to launch new projects over the coming period to enhance their competitive edge and bolster their investment-friendly environment.

The report mentioned that infrastructure-strengthening efforts are a primary step for any development to materialise in a way that should reflect positively on all services available in a country. The efforts are also paving the way to develop investment-enticing legislations and policies conducive to creating job opportunities and grooming local cadres as well as fostering a culture of innovation.

According to the report, the infrastructure projects in the UAE have set a remarkable example for the community. They provide growing incentives and momentum to the country’s endeavours to overcome the multi-faceted challenges it is facing, thus strengthening its position as a premier investment destination at the regional and global levels. The report cited recent statistics purporting that the UAE comes on top of MENA countries with regards to the number of infrastructure projects up to the year 2020, with Abu Dhabi launching infrastructure projects worth AED 4.3 billion out of AED 17.5 billon allocated to capital-intensive projects in the emirate. Dubai’s infrastructure developments are valued at more than AED 22 billion for the current year.

On Qatar, the report stated that the infrastructure investment momentum is almost on par with that of Dubai, as the latter is gearing up to EXPO 2020, while the former is getting ready for the 2022 FIFA World Cup. These are premier world events that are considered main catalysts for urban development, driving up demand for infrastructure projects at present and over the coming period.

By 2020, Qatar is planning to spend around QAR 30 billion on highways, bridges, subways and power generation station projects in addition to FIFA World Cup-related infrastructure projects worth $ 200 billion. Qatar’s new budget indicated an increase to around QAR 100 billion in government spending on major projects in areas of education, health and so on.

On Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure projects, the report mentioned that they are closely linked to the government’s economic diversification plans and strategies as part of the Saudi Vision 2030. In this regard, the report said that the resilience and buoyancy of the Saudi economy and the Kingdom’s massive financial reserves coupled with the considerable future credit flows are all significant factors to ensure that KSA makes great economic strides, provided feasible investment plans are developed.

The report referred to recent statistics indicating that KSA is planning to spend around SAR 630 billion on infrastructure projects over the coming few years – this is out of SAR 3.75 trillion worth of projects allocated to primary economic sectors, including railway, road and airport enterprises. In the meantime, the Saudi government is reappraising a number of projects in-line with its economic diversification strategy. Therefore, it has stopped funding major projects valued at around $ 267 billion, including infrastructure projects whose returns are not aligned with the new strategy.

In the meantime, the Bahraini government is planning to continue spending on large-scale infrastructure projects in order to further strengthen its investment-friendly environment and boost urban development.

The growth recorded by non-oil economic platforms in Bahrain has resulted in increasing job opportunities. Infrastructure investments are valued at more than $ 6 billion, in addition to the newly introduced investments that are valued at around $ 5 billion. These investments have reflected positively on the construction, real estate and tourism sectors in the kingdom.

The report also underlined the necessity of linking infrastructure investments in the Gulf countries with tangible projects conducive to providing full support to the region’s economy in the future, calling for a reconsideration of the potential investments in accordance with the allocated budgets. The report noted that integrated strategies capable of drawing foreign investments are a must to maximise financial revenues.

Conclusion

The report concluded by highlighting that the region’s countries should show full commitment to overcoming financial challenges faced by infrastructure investments as their potential returns are conducive to achieving future economic objectives set by the GCC states.

Falling Property Prices Delay Investment and Urban Projects

Not every rise will lead to demand-pull inflation

The Gulf region’s property markets could be affected by myriad challenges in the current and upcoming periods, including a potential state of recession that is likely to trigger a price fall.

In its weekly real estate report, Al Mazya Holding predicted that the ongoing and upcoming pressures might reflect negatively on realty investments as many of the real estate development companies and individuals in the region would wait for further declines in land plot prices before pumping money into the markets and launch new construction projects.

Starting with the Dubai realty market, the report mentioned that 2015’s price plunges continued in 2016 as well, reaching an average of 10% as a result of the financial and business pressures the Gulf markets have gone through. The continued property demand from individuals and developers led to a price plunge as growing investment opportunities increased demand and pushed up the number of property projects targeting the limited-income segments of society. Furthermore, the plot prices in Dubai recorded a remarkable rise of approximately 15% in commercial and residential plots sales made for the purpose of investment. The report also cited the 50% hike in the prices of land plots adjacent to Dubai Water Canal. In the meantime, commercial plot prices in Abu Dhabi dropped by around 10% since the beginning of the year until the end of the 3rd quarter as a result of slowing demand.

Likewise, the Saudi property market registered a remarkable fall in the prices of lands for sale – for example, villas, buildings and flats – in the wake of the government’s policies that aimed to rationalise market prices and bring them back to normal. In addition, supply outpaced demand for all property products after a large segment of contractors, including companies and individuals, sold off their property to secure the liquidity needed to pay off their debt obligations and meet operating expenses. The report noted that land prices in the Saudi market plunged by more than 30% during the current year, with prices of residential plots of lands having fallen by 19% by the end of the 3rd quarter. A further rise in land and property sales is expected during 2017.

The Qatari property market went through several positive and negative developments during the current year following the considerable rise in the supply of plots and property, which, in turn, caused a delay in launching many further projects. Statistics indicated a 35% fall in land prices, indicating that the decline trend is likely to continue during the 1st quarter of 2017 to around 10%, owing to the decisions taken with the objective of pumping more liquidity into the market to finance new projects, according to the report.

The realty landscape in Bahrain is a bit different, revealed the report. This is attributed to the limited volume of land available and the increased population density along with the positive investment laws adopted by the Bahraini government to provide momentum to freehold and other types of real estate projects. The end result is a rise in prices of all residential, commercial and investment plots of lands.

In the Omani real estate market, real estate transactions by Gulf investors fell by more than 25% due to a state of saturation in the market. The report highlighted the Omani government’s intervention to boost investments and limit the negative impact of the unjustifiable rise in land prices owing to the growing influence of real estate brokers’ practices. Such unstable conditions in the Omani market caused a large number of investors and buyers to shy away from the market. Rather, they seek to purchase ready-made flats and villas, a tendency which typically led property prices to soar by 20%-40% in different parts of the Sultanate, following the growing urban expansion trend witnessed nationwide. Furthermore, the report also referred to the factors that have negatively affected the supply-demand mechanism in the country.

On the whole, Gulf realty markets face neither market nor funding illiquidity, but rather, is still affected by the implications of the post-global financial crisis era when the property sector has witnessed a boom since early 2012. Realty markets recorded variable rises in price that was justifiable only at times, driven by cycles of high demand and low supply.

Conclusion

The report stated that falling oil returns and the decline in spending have significantly contributed to the fluctuations witnessed by Gulf property markets, noting that the price slides recorded in some real estate sectors by the end of the year are not to be viewed as negative forecasts of the coming period. The report stressed that it is just as true that not every rise would necessarily lead to demand-pull inflation, as the situation differs from one location to another and from one country to another.

Freehold Projects Draw Foreign Capital and Accelerate Urban Development in GCC Markets

Enactment of resilient foreign ownership laws is a must to augment investment returns

The ability to introduce unique innovations and ideas into real estate projects to meet the growing needs of end-users plays a major role in enhancing demand for freehold projects, according to recent market data and statistics.

In its weekly real estate report, Al Mazaya Holding pointed out that there are different factors and criteria that have their own bearing on the level of demand for freehold property. Responsiveness to these criteria and factors – including market developments and foreign supply and demand indicators – is one of the key factors to ensure the success of real estate companies and, consequently, customer satisfaction.

The report noted that the freehold sector has witnessed impressive growth in the region over the past years, incentivising countries to develop and expand their freehold laws and regulations, which, in turn, helped promote foreign investments and diversify income sources. In this context, the report highlighted that the increase in freehold shares in new real estate projects has implications that beef up a company’s status in the market, maintain a competitive edge for its projects and ensure its sustained activity. This will ultimately be in the interest of wider economic and financial activities in the countries where investments are taking place.

The report cited Turkey as an example of the countries that have, over the past few years, sought to bolster its real estate market by enacting foreign ownership laws that have proved to be an effective catalyst for accelerating real estate investments by drawing more foreign capital into its markets.

Turkey’s laws and legislations that allow foreigners to purchase property have attracted capital, tourist and investment flows to the country, reviving the real estate market in a remarkable way. Thanks to these laws, and other factors, including a distinguished strategic geographic location between Asia and Europe and a resilient economy ranked 17th among the world’s major powers and 6th on the list of Europe’s top economies, Turkey has proved to be a very competitive market. Recent real estate statistics showed that an excess of 13,000 properties have been owned by foreigners at the end of 2013; 19,000 by end of 2014; 20,500 by 2015.

Dubai is another remarkable example where the development of foreign ownership laws has played a major role in earning the Dubai market a prestigious and competitive position in the international market. This is mainly due to the resilience of these laws and their ability to cater to all needs and meet all demands, which has consequently reflected positively on the economic performance of the emirate.

In the UAE market, the report noted that enactment of laws encouraging foreign ownership of property has boosted economic growth rates and significantly contributed to diversifying real estate products and solidifying demand rates in times of recession, ultimately drawing more direct foreign investments into the construction industry. Thus, this has resulted experienced exceptionally impressive growth rates.

The report highlighted that recent data and statistics estimate the total value of foreign investments in the Dubai realty market to exceed AED 60 billion. The businesses established by foreign investors in Dubai are valued at more than AED 57 billion during the first half of 2016, with the volume of property purchased by foreigners estimated at AED 28 billion – indications that prove in no uncertain terms that the impact foreign ownership laws have on the investment landscape in the country is positive.

In the meantime, the report stated that the freehold laws in Qatar require the expansion of investment rules and procedures so as to facilitate freehold ownership of property by Arab and foreign investors. That is because the freehold law, currently in force, only allows full ownership to GCC citizens, but not others. The law does, however, provide special incentives and privileges for long-term leasing for a period of up to 99-years with a renewable option for a similar period.

Non-Qataris are allowed to invest in and own land, buildings, and development in three specific projects only: the Pearl, Western Gulf Lake and Al Khor Resort Project. The report noted that 90% of direct foreign investments in Qatar are focused on the Oil and Gas industry and its subsectors, which account for 52% of the total value of direct foreign investment in the country. They are followed by mining investments that account for 38% of the total value of direct foreign investment and then the financial investments at 4%.

With regards to Bahrain, the report mentioned that the kingdom has enacted resilient freehold legislations that reflect positively on its economic growth. This has largely been a result of the Bahraini government’s clear vision and ambitious plans to strengthen economic development efforts and create job opportunities for Bahraini citizens, providing foreigners with 100 % ownership options in investment havens like Amwaj Island, Abraj Al Lulu, and Bahrain Pearl.

In conclusion, the report underlined the significant role played by freehold real estate in attracting foreign investments to the local and international realty markets, noting that world countries are sparing no effort to augment the value of foreign investments, owing to their high returns and due to the fact that they are realizable assets that are readily convertible to cash without sustaining any losses whatsoever. The report also called for developing resilient laws to streamline the foreign ownership of property in most of the countries in the region in order to boost economic diversification plans, output and competitiveness.

Hotel Industry Boom Provides Robust Momentum to Realty Market

The Gulf hospitality sector has been growing by leaps and bounds over the past years, displaying tremendous potential to draw foreign investments and expertise to the Gulf economy.

In a weekly report that focused on the hotel sector in the Gulf region and the factors responsible for growth in the hotel and realty sectors, Al Mazaya Holding stated the considerable achievements made by the hospitality industry in the Gulf over the past few years. The growth has tapped an innovative set of products responsive to the geography and climatic conditions of the region.

The hotel sector is an integral part of the real estate industry and both of them have many factors in common responsible for growth – in other words, real estate and hotel investments as inseparable. In essence, hotel projects are real estate investments that differ from conventional building and construction investments only in terms of quality, facades and decorative finishes.

The report added that the hotel sector gives an immense momentum to local and foreign investments in the Gulf States. Thus, this encourages GCC countries to develop integrated real estate strategies and feasibility studies to leverage their economic sectors and performance, thanks to the impressive successes achieved by both the completed and ongoing real estate projects.

The report noted that the hotel sector is resilient and buoyant enough to survive the current economic pressures and challenges due to its ability to create innovative products that increase the sector’s overall attractiveness and help push up hotel occupancy rates all year round. The promotional plans and activities developed by the Gulf nations in their major economic platforms, primarily the hospitality, energy and health sectors, play a major role in sustaining the occupancy rates and strengthening the efficiency of the sector.

In addition, the long-term developmental strategies being devised by the region’s countries all over the past decades contribute greatly to boosting competitiveness at the hotel sector, especially because all the GCC States have common objectives in this regard, only varying in the way and mechanism these strategies are being implemented to attract capital, investments and international interest in the hotel sector.

High Occupancy Rates

The report highlighted the marked growth in the hotel sector in the UAE in terms of the volume of projects and investments. Recent statistics underlined the UAE realty sector’s ability to draw large volumes of customers and foreign investments. This is due to the integrated promotional plans and activities organised all year round that have had a strong impact on maximising investments and revenues.

The hotel occupancy rates in Dubai during 2016 ranged around 80% – 85 %, thanks to the increasing number of business and leisure travelers arriving in the emirate as well as the constant promotional activities organised all year round. In Qatar, the hotel occupancy rates reached 85% during the current year. In Bahrain, during holiday seasons, the occupancy rates hit a record of 90%, which is the same rate achieved by Oman. In Saudi Arabia, the occupancy rate is around 70%.

New Hotel Investments

The perceived attractiveness enjoyed by the hotel industry in the region has led to tangible growth in direct investments channeled to this sector. As a result, this has proved to be a major economic catalyst for diversification plans and increasing GDP growth in GCC States. On this score, statistics revealed that the number of hotel projects currently under construction in Dubai exceeds 67 and are valued at approximately AED 65 billion. These projects are due to be completed by 2020.

The number of hotels under construction in Qatar is more than 105 – upon completion, these constructions are expected to add over 21000 rooms. In Bahrain, five hotels are now being constructed by foreign companies at an estimated value of more than $1 billion. In Saudi Arabia, there are around 79 hotel projects under construction that are expected to add 35,000 hotel rooms upon completion. In Oman, the hospitality industry investments are valued at $3.3 billion.

High Dividends

The report also highlighted the positive impact of the hotel industry’s growth on the economic diversification plans adopted by the region’s countries, despite the besetting economic challenges. In this regard, the report noted that Saudi Arabia received 19 million tourist flights during 2016, with the total tourist expenditure reaching a record of SR 90 billion, which is equivalent to 3.5% of the KSA’s GDP.

The report added that the hotel sector in Dubai will bring in financial returns as high as AED 25 billion by the end of the current year, compared to AED 23.9 billion last year, which will help keep the sector’s annual growth rate at 5% until 2020. In Bahrain, the hotel sector is bringing in increasing returns and its contribution to the GDP is expected to exceed $1 billion by 2020. Oman is planning to attract around five million visitors by launching investments valued at OMR 19 billion, therefore increasing the hotel sector’s contribution to 11% of the GDP over the next few years.

Promotion Plans

The report indicated that continued growth in the hotel sector requires constant promotional plans and diverse investments to strengthen the economic sector and decrease the budget deficit suffered by the region’s countries as a result of the faltering oil returns. The report made it clear that the conference, business, religious and recuperative types of tourism should play a major role in consolidating the hotel sector and consequently, the economy at large.

The report concluded by underlining the necessity of expanding hotel investments in the region in order to draw more world-standard local, regional and international investments capable of meeting and catering to diverse tastes. In this regard, the report highlighted the fact that the hotel sector in the region still suffers the least pain in terms of debt problems. This is in comparison with other projects that are under construction and those funded by banks and other funding institutions, a fact that positively outlines the future of the sector’s ability to attract more local and foreign capital.

US Elections, BREXIT and Fluctuating Exchange Rates Reshape World Realty Investment Map

Regional real estate markets face unanticipated risks due to unstable world landscape

The global real estate market has witnessed myriad challenges at different levels over the past period. As a result, the region’s countries are seeking to solidify their realty sectors by launching more feasible investments.

In its real estate weekly report, Al Mazaya Holding said a large number of these challenges are inevitable as they are associated with the waves of recession and regressions typically witnessed by countries from time to time and which have their own bearing on property prices and transactions.

The report noted that each realty market has its own respective peculiarities and advantages that provide it with a certain competitive edge. Accordingly, each country devises its own way of shielding foreign and local investments against direct and indirect risks so as to ensure an investment-friendly and secure environment. However, the fast-paced and multi-faceted developments taking place worldwide at present have created an unprecedented wave of risks that are difficult to control in the Gulf real estate markets.

The report noted that the fluctuating exchange rates worldwide play a major role in increasing the level of unanticipated risks that real estate and other types of investments face. The fall and rise in exchange rates have their own pros and cons, with Gulf investments in Turkey, for example, having decreased by 8% following the drop in the Turkish Lira since the failed coup attempt. The currency devaluation of the Lira is attributed to a number of reasons, including the results of the US presidential elections and Moody’s downgrade of Turkey’s long-term issuer and senior unsecured bond ratings.

The currency rates in emerging markets are likewise witnessing further slides, fluctuations and losses due to the growing speculations about a potential interest rate rise on the US markets, with quantitative easing likely to be abandoned. Egypt’s decision to float its currency has had its own direct impact on real estate markets as well.

The report highlighted some of the negative practices that have had their own bearing on world and Gulf real estate markets, explaining that they have resulted in considerable losses and fluctuations, adversely affecting the value of supply and demand and increasing the number of speculators who seek only short-term investments with high returns. On this issue, the report warned against unlicensed real estate brokers, underlining the importance of combating unlicensed brokerage activities due to the negative impact on the market. The necessity of auditing new real estate projects has also been underscored by the report to ensure they get the required licenses from the official authorities in order to avoid fraudulent real estate transactions.

On bogus and fake transactions, the report said the discrepancy in legislations and restrictions from one country to another adversely impacts real estate markets. Investors – for example, during real estate exhibitions – may fall victim to crimes associated with fake off-plan sales of property and plots of lands, paying big down payments to own a property that is basically non-existent. The report attributed this to the investors’ failure to verify the existence of such property ahead of the purchase process.

The report highlighted the recent rise in investment risk levels regionally and internationally following Moody’s rating downgrade, and said the downgrade should necessitate the launch of feasible investments in the market. The global economy growth rate is expected to stabilise at around 3%, with no leaps in oil prices. No positive signs have been noted, either in credit markets or major economic platforms and sectors – a state that, according to the report, would expose the region to growing risks and regressions.

The report shed light on the recent US Presidential Elections and the obstacles to be faced by US real estate and other types of investments over the coming period as a result of the election of Donald Trump. Britain’s exit from the EU has not affected the value of British real estate assets and investments. The report added that these two major developments in the US and the UK raise questions about the level of potential consequent losses expected in the future and how to find suitable investment alternatives to the US and UK markets.

Among the investment opportunities available in the region’s markets, Gulf investments are almost confined to real estate and equity sectors, as all the region’s countries are currently suffering from unstable demand and liquidity rates, a situation which would attract more foreign investments over the coming period and bring new domestic investments to a halt.

Conclusion

Such economic and financial pressures have their own bearing on the region’s realty markets, exacerbating a decline in property rental prices as supply outstrips demand in a typical response to the fall in real estate returns. Thus, the report underlined the importance of developing sound financial and economic approaches, and taking positive decisions to sidestep the risks the economic sectors – especially the real estate platforms – could be exposed to in the future.

Gulf Investments Needed by All World Markets
The US election results have no bearing on US investment incentives

   Recent studies affirmed that Gulf countries have adequate expertise and financial resources that enable them to develop sound foreign investment plans and diversify their economies. Arab and Gulf nations are in a good position to leverage their real estate and financial sectors, which have proved over the recent years to be a mainstay for growth and investments.

In its weekly report, Al Mazaya Holding said the results of the US elections would not have any bearing on the foreign and Gulf investments in the US market. According to the report, the US financial sector now suffers from massive and cumulative deficits worth $600 billion for the current year, which equals 3.3% of the US GDP, a situation that would prompt the new US Administration to launch new channels of investments with world countries – including Gulf states – in order to weather the economic challenges it is facing.

The report added that Gulf investments play a major role in leveraging the US markets due to their considerable volume, long-term presence and impact, which advantages necessary for any economy to ensure positive results. The report estimated that the total foreign investments in the US economy was at $3.1 trillion at the end of 2015, which demonstrates, in no uncertain terms, the momentum provided by the US administration to maximise the volume of investments that are projected to increase in the future.

The report shed light on the direct and indirect Saudi US-bound investments, being the largest all over the region. Statistics reveal that Saudi treasury bills and investment bonds as well other assets rose in comparison with the last year to $750 billion, with treasure bonds alone accounting for $118 billion by the end of the first quarter this year. Furthermore, Saudi financial security investments overseas exceeded a total of $388 billion due to the improved value of the assets invested abroad, which exceeded SR3.7 trillion by the end of 2015.

The report added that the Saudi foreign investments generated considerable returns, hitting SR89 billion by virtue of their diversity and improved performance, advantages that reflect positively on the markets and contribute to reducing the budget deficit triggered by the declining oil prices back home.

The report termed the Qatari investment plans as the most efficient all over the region in terms of geographic distribution, diversity and target markets – advantages that ensure resilience and buoyancy in a way that keeps risks and losses to a minimum and results in tangible achievements. The report noted that Qatari investments target major world cities and are centered on the financial, banking and real estate sectors. Moreover, they have expanded to include the agricultural sector, coal mining, oil and gas, automotive companies and major world sports clubs. The US market is still attracting Qatari investments, with the Qatari Investment Authority and a number of Qatari companies recently striking big deals worth $15 billion in the US. The report added that Qatar is planning to invest up to $35 billion over the coming five years and to increase its investment volume in a way that goes in-line with US investment planning.

The report termed the UAE investment and wealth management plans as a model that should be copied regionally and internationally, thanks to their diversification and attractiveness, which made the country a favourable investment destination hub. The report mentioned that the volume of UAE investments in the US is not big enough, which consequently safeguards its economy from any potential risks.

The type and nature of investments in foreign and Arab countries are governed by a set of agreements and legislations that all parties concerned have to abide by and any exposure to any types of risks would lead to an investment exodus from the US economy – disastrous sequels which the new administration certainly wants to avoid by steering clear away from any uncalculated measures that could pose serious harm to the economy. In this regard, the report cited the consequences of Britain’s leaving the European Union and its positive impact on other markets that provide considerable investment incentives.

According to the report, the development plans adopted by the region’s countries are conducive to providing investment momentum and an attractive edge by creating multiple investment opportunities that would enable Gulf businessmen to have access to European markets such as Turkey and other developed economies like China, Japan and Singapore, instead of confining their investments to US markets.

The report expected that the Gulf markets would not be impacted by the policies of the new US administration which, the report stressed, would not take any risks that might get its economy mired with any financial crises that could have a negative impact on its local and global economy.

The report concluded by underlining the importance of separating politics from economics in dealing with the US market, stressing that the US economy is in need of Gulf and other foreign investments that would ensure sustained and high economic returns.

A Pillar in the World Economy: The Lion’s Share of Gulf Investments Are Channeled to the Logistics Sector

The logistics sector has become a pillar in the world economy, providing the economies of some countries with a main source of revenue in the wake of the sharp decline in global oil prices. Thus, some countries and major companies are now launching considerable investments in the logistics industry, consistently seeking to solidify this sector on account of its positive impact on the local economy in the long run.

In a weekly report dedicated to the logistics and transport sector in the GCC and other regional states, Al Mazaya Holding stated that sound planning is a prerequisite for successful logistics projects. The report noted that ensuring diversity and engaging small and big investors alike in all planning and execution phases are requirements for success.

The report added that any developments in the logistics sector should come through the launch of more investment enterprises and the encouragement of the private sector to play more significant roles in expanding the sector. In addition, developing a robust mechanism to draw local and foreign investments to the logistics industry is essential to develop the sector.

In Saudi Arabia, the logistics market is now gaining considerable momentum with the government closely setting up the logistics sector to cater to the country’s mega-development projects and revenue-diversifying plans. Consistent efforts are exerted to merge the logistics industry with the industrial sector in alignment with the Saudi Vision 2030. The logistics sector is a significant platform that is capable of creating job opportunities, with logistics projects now considered to be an important driver for reducing the costs of non-oil imports and exports, which reached 160 million tons last year. This, in turn, will ultimately boost investment potential and draw foreign investment more seamlessly.

In the meantime, the logistics sector in Saudi Arabia is now regarded as an indicator for monitoring the government’s expenditure on infrastructure projects and enhancing competitiveness over those strategic locations that are expected to solidify all economic sectors and increase their contributions to the country’s Gross Domestic Product. KSA now has nine industrial and trading ports over the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf that all can solidify this sector. In addition, KSA is seeking to encourage the private sector to pump more direct investments to develop the industrial sector, reduce transportation costs and maximise economic efficiency.

In the UAE, the report said the logistics industry is witnessing an expansion, with the country coming first among GCC and regional states in terms of the volume of logistics investments. Consolidated with a resilient infrastructure, including 12 airports and seaports, roads, 310 quays and unloading docks and sophisticated means of transportation, the logistics industry in the UAE puts the country on top of the global scale in terms of the application of best practices in areas of border and customs management.

Furthermore, the UAE logistics market is expected to grow to $27 billion with an annual growth rate of 4%, said the report, adding that the country boasts all potential conducive factors to attract logistics services providers, customs clearance agencies and shipping companies. The report also highlighted the advanced ranking of the UAE in terms of business incentives that ensure a foreign investment edge and better access to world markets.

In Oman, the report said that current expansion plans are part of an ambitious strategy aimed at diversifying the economy in-line with the 2040 Vision. According to the report, the government is planning to entrust the logistics sector with a major role in boosting GDP, enhancing the private sector’s involvement in investment projects and increasing job opportunities in all fields.

The report noted that the lion’s share of the Omani government’s expenditure goes to logistics projects, including transportation and port construction enterprises, with the ultimate goal of developing the country’s infrastructure in-line with the best international criteria. It added that Oman is relentlessly seeking to utilise all available investment opportunities and expand logistics and tourist services in order to survive any oil sector challenges in the future.

In Bahrain, the report stated that the Kingdom has initiated a package of mega projects aimed at creating convenient investment opportunities for businessmen from all over the world. Highlighting the current financial and investment momentum in the Kingdom, the report noted that Bahrain already boasts a resilient investment environment and economic freedom that bolsters the logistics sector. The report expects the Bahraini logistics sector’s contribution to the GDP to exceed 7% over the coming few years, thanks to the incentives offered to entrepreneurs, including business-attracting laws, measures and legislations.

In Qatar, the report noted that developing the logistics sector is part of the comprehensive plans now being implemented by the Qatari Government to diversify the economy and increase its business competitiveness regionally and internationally. Qatar, according to the report, is forging solid channels of partnership and cooperation between the private and public sectors in order to implement projects of high economic yields in the long run.

The ongoing developmental efforts in the Qatari logistics sector, including the expansion of storage areas and activities, will provide momentum to the sector. This will help build a competitive and sustainable economy. These developmental efforts include providing effective logistics services for small and medium-scale companies at competitive prices in order to improve investment conditions and reduce operating costs, which will ultimately have long-term positive impacts on the economy.

The report concluded that the logistics sector in the region is being impacted by the prevailing financial and economic conditions and the legislations enforced by the region’s countries. Its success, according to the report, depends on the adoption of robust developmental plans, governments’ expenditure and the ability of the private sector to contribute effectively. In addition, the logistics sector itself has to be buoyant enough to survive any fluctuations experienced by the world economy as a result of the unsteady oil prices and the concomitant impact on the oil-exporting countries’ revenues.

As a result, the need has now arisen for robust strategic plans to be adopted by the private and public sectors in order to strengthen the capabilities of small investors and ensure the sustainable development of the logistics sector.

Supply-Demand Imbalance Triggers Crisis in theEgyptian Realty Market

Demand is outpacing supply in the Egyptian realty market, which is considered one of the major economic sectors in the country. This is occurring at a time when the private sector is more incentivised than before to launch real estate projects that bridge the gap between supply and demand. Furthermore, the government is increasing efforts to launch projects that meet the needs of the low-income segments of society. Despite the financial crises besetting the Egyptian economy, big foreign and local investments have recently been drawn to the economy, solidifying the real estate sector’s attractiveness.

However, Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Report predicted that increasing property prices would trigger a crisis in the realty market, now considered the only investment platform where cash flows can be directed. This is in anticipation of the probable devaluation of the Egyptian pound, which will have its own bearing on bank deposits and financial markets credits, ultimately leading to price bubbles that are difficult to control in the short run.

The report summarised the crisis the Egyptian realty market is going through due to the lack of balance between demand and supply. This is a result of the rapid population growth, the low-income demographic’s inability to pay for housing, and the discrepancy in property prices from one area to another, in addition to the decreasing purchasing power.

The report noted that property prices represent a real challenge, with real estate development companies finding growing difficulties in selling housing units at the current high prices. The report also urged all parties concerned to collaborate before the situation worsens and escalates into a significant crisis that would certainly impinge on the Egyptian economy, leading ultimately to a situation where the banks would not hold sufficient funds to fund real estate companies.

Furthermore, the report added that real estate companies and investors are required to launch more projects addressing the low-income demographic that accounts for the largest share of the Egyptian population. Real estate companies were also advised to stay clear of luxury projects in order to avoid a potential collapse in prices and demand for real estate units and enhance economic growth rates in order to preempt any more crises.

The report mentioned that the building and construction sector posted fair growth rates reaching up to 12% during the first 9 months of 2016, which makes government estimations of scoring a growth rate of 4.5% a valid possibility. The current and expected growth rates continued to rise during August, reaching up to 16.4% on an annual basis.

The non-availability of hard currency in the banks that fund foreign trade will cause investors and traders in the Egyptian real estate sector to sustain heavy losses, pushing them to get their financial needs at much higher prices from the black market – a situation that will lead to increasingly high inflation rates. The report attributed the current financial crisis to an imbalanced management of foreign credit and the lack of a proper mechanism to generate sustained flows of foreign currency.

The current crisis is considerably attributed as well to the deteriorating conditions in the tourism sector, which is one of the largest hard currency earners in the country. The ailing economic conditions have not been mitigated by the floating exchange rate regime, which has proved to be an insufficient solution to survive the current crisis, despite previous predictions that exchange rate flexibility would draw foreign investments and re-channel expats’ remittances back to the local economy.

The report added that it has now become necessary to launch a package of economic reforms in parallel with the floating exchange rate mechanism. These reforms, according to the report, should include guarantees to provide foreign currency for purposes of importation for a minimum of six months. The report highlighted the grave impact the current economic developments would have on the realty market, which has for 10 years been witnessing increasing prices and high demand due to the continued devaluation of the local currency by the Egyptian Central Bank.

The report highlighted the effect of increasing inflation rates on the current property prices, with available data attributing the all-time high 20% increase in prices over the past year to the 70% hike in land prices in Grater Cairo. Theaverage price per square meter for houses and villas reached around LE 18,000, with property prices varying according to location, space and level of finishing and decoration.

The report predicted that the crisis will continue and the average Egyptian citizen’s purchasing power will be curbed if no sufficient measures are taken. A continued rise in real estate prices will probably make the recession manifest itself due to the locals’ unwillingness to buy at overstated prices. Mortgages would go for longer payment periods to ensure lower monthly instalments.

The report concluded that it has become more necessary now than ever before to survive the crisis by launching medium and small-scale housing units. Furthermore, the government can also enhance its efficiency to overcome challenges in a market that already boasts multiple investment opportunities for Egyptian businessmen, due to the restrictions imposed on foreign currency and external money transfer transactions.

Despite Mounting Economic Pressures, Saudi Realty Market Remains on Track

The Gulf realty sector has been experiencing a wave of fluctuations over the past economic period. Unsteady prices of housing units and projects, low cash flows and mounting pressures exercised by state departments on real estate companies and investors are cited by Al Mazaya Holding to be the main reason behind new challenges. A report released recently by the company said that Gulf countries and investors now need to adopt structured measures robust enough to bolster the Gulf property sector. They need to steer clear from being selective in their long and mid-term investment plans – rather, they should focus on monetisation policies to avoid losses and mitigate potential risks.

The report, which was mainly focused on the Saudi realty sector, said the Saudi government’s plans and investments adopted hitherto have not yet fructified, nor have they managed to bridge the yawning gap between supply and demand due to the vast extent and magnitude of the Saudi market where demand for housing units and villas is on a spiraling rise, significantly outstripping supply.

The report said the change in Saudi government’s expenditure priorities in light of the Saudi Vision 2030 is likely to trigger a state of uncertainty that would lead investors to shy away from the real estate business due to the challenges they encounter, particularly falling land prices and reducing liquidity at a sector that used to boast 45% of the total liquidity available for all investment platforms in the Kingdom.

Al Mazaya Holding’s report indicated that the Saudi real estate market showed signs of weakness due to the sharp drop in the value of real estate transactions over the past period of the current year. The total value of real estate transactions plummeted by 23% over the past 10 months to as low as SR 246 billion compared to SR 319 billion at the same period last year. Residential property transactions fell by 20% while commercial property rose by 6% at the same period, with land transactions leading the sector with 83% of the total value of all real estate sector transactions.

Though land sales accounted for the lion’s share of real estate transactions, residential land prices fell by 19% against 2015’s and by 32% against 2014’s. The report added that the market would witness more developments and cycles in terms of liquidity, sales and prices over the coming period, should supply, demand and sales of lands and real estate property continue to grow.

The report referred to the discrepancy in liquidity levels in the Saudi realty market, where land sales are on the rise, while villas’ prices fell by 30%, attributing this decline to the fact that property services differ from one location to another. This decline triggered pressures on real estate activities, leading property purchases to fall to an all-time low as buyers could get lower prices with higher advantages and, at the same time, owners tend to sell to avoid potential losses.

Laws relevant to levying charges on land sales have not changed radically until now, said the report, adding that more control is needed to curb unjustifiable price rises that are at an all time high as a natural result of owners taking advantage of the high demand on the types of lands set for residential and investment purposes.

The Saudi market is anticipating major decisions that lead to a fundamental change in the trend of buying lands only for the purpose of keeping them until their prices rise rather than buying for construction and development purposes, according to the report. The report also indicates that determining the type of contractors, including their areas of expertise, so that investors can choose the best that meets their needs, is a crucial step.

Nevertheless, the Saudi realty market is considered one of the region’s largest, generating high demand and recovery levels, including a sustained launch of governmental enterprises. The sector is of vital importance to the Saudi national economy, due to its impact on growth and prosperity levels as well as on local and overseas investments. Furthermore, the sector creates growing job opportunities and has its ultimate impact on other economic platforms.

The report highlighted the myriad challenges besetting the Saudi real estate market, including the growing gap between supply and demand with regards to property in general and residential units in particular. The ongoing projects as well as those executed in the past failed to overcome the commercial property shortage, noted the report, highlighting that the sector needs a momentum to draw different types of investments in the building and construction industry, whose regional value is estimated at more than $300 billion. Thus, the sector can turn to a think tank to adopt and produce state-of-the-art technology.

The report added that the government’s support will play a major role in helping the Saudi real sector gain the right momentum and survive the challenges of the past and present so that it can regain its attractiveness and favoured status in drawing real estate projects. This support is needed to reduce burden on individuals and encourage investors through stimulus packages and official incentives.

In conclusion, the report underscored the importance of the real estate market in adopting the Saudi Vision 2030 that aims to increase returns to $160 billion by 2020. The report called for maintaining the construction sector’s fundamentals, and augmenting the construction sector’s yields to the maximum level. In this regard, it referenced the positive impact that the Saudi Vision 2030 will have on the buoyancy of the sector, the local economy and the gross domestic product in general by attracting more investments while restructuring other sectors. Furthermore, the report indicates that expected government expenditure allocated to Saudi Vision 2030 will reach more than SR 60 billion by the next year.

The US Realty Market remains a favourable destination for Gulf Investments

US Presidential Elections could have a great bearing on GCC Property Investments

Successful real estate investments need expertise and sufficient cash flows to cover obligations. More importantly, buoyancy is necessary to survive investment risks, according to Al Mazaya Holding’s weekly report.

The report noted that modern market indicators term the dynamic US property as a favourable investment destination for Arab and GCC states by virtue of its lucrative yields and high growth rates.

The report notes that the growing competition among key world realty markets has reflected positively on GCC states’ outbound investments and helped boost these countries’ business relationships with world economic powers. Furthermore, the US presidential elections will havea great bearing on the direction of the Arab and GCC realty investments in US over the coming period.

US realty market boasts fiscal stimulus packages that ensure high yields for GCC businesses, including individual and corporate investments. On top of these advantages comes the high demand for property as flexible legislations ensure its sustained attractiveness under all economic circumstances. Moreover, the open economic policy adopted there plays a pivotal role in drawing different kinds of investments from all over the world.

According to the report, the US has several big cities that enjoy a competitive edge, thanks to their diverse and huge natural resources, principally New York and Miami, which are considered among the world’s largest cities that attract foreign investments, including those coming from the Gulf region. Annual real estate investment yields as high as 8 per cent have been posted there, jumping up to 12 per cent in some years, according to the report.

The report attributed the buoyance of the US realty market to its resilient set of rules and regulations. It indicated that office sales and rentals account for a greater share in both local and foreign investments. Industrial property are increasingly attracting foreign investments, pushing their prices by 6 per cent, which resulted in the need to develop more projects to meet the current and expected high rate of demand.

The report also noted that growing employment rates during 2016, investment resilience, high business yields, economic security and political stability are all positive factors that play a major role in increasing demand on commercial and office spaces, noting that demand vastly outstrips supply in many major locations.

The report expected that the future Arab and Gulf real estate investments will be negatively impacted by candidate Donald Trump winning the US presidential elections, with the existing investments to be less affected thanks to their growing returns.

The Arab and GCC states are major trade partners of the US, with the trade exchange between the US and the UAE reaching $25 billion by the end of 2015 and US-Saudi trade exchange posting good growth rates in the same year, rising up to SR170 billion. In the meantime, Qatar is planning to pump more than $35 billion in direct and indirect investments into the US. In addition, Gulf investments in the US are estimated at $612 billion.

The grave implications of the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA), in case of its enactment into a law, would outweigh those of the presidential elections on Saudi-US relations at all levels. The act, if enforced, would have a drastic impact on eminent Saudi figures, credit institutions and charity organisations that will be required to pay billions of dollars in damages. This will create a gloomy scenario that could cause a large portion of foreign investments to flee back to local Gulf markets.

The report underlined the importance of Gulf investments finding out other investment opportunities in the region’s markets, even in developed countries, including China, Turkey and Indonesia, where realty markets are posting high yields without any indirect or direct economic or political repercussions.

The report highlighted that some of the risks that private and public Gulf businesses could be exposed to in the US should Saudi Arabia decide to withdraw from the US market – this includes cash and asset investments. A new major world financial crisis could be triggered if the Gulf countries scaled down their new investments in the US, resulting in drastic pricing deviations in all economic platforms.

In conclusion, the report called upon all Gulf companies and organisations to invest their growing revenues from the oil industry in other fields like finance, real estate and industrial markets that are likely to generate more investment momentum and improve the business environment.

Real Estate Markets in the UK and GCC Maintain Robust Appeal Despite Considerable Challenges

Fast-paced economic changes render overseas investment difficult

The global real estate market and the Gulf region are currently experiencing fast-paced economic changes that have rendered overseas investment quite difficult. This business landscape rather paved the way for cross-continental investments on a number of world markets that yield relatively riskless reasonable returns. New markets that boast security, socio-economic and political stability are high in demand. On this score, UK and the Gulf Region, in general, and the UAE, in particular, emerge as foremost investment destinations by virtue of the economic and investment incentives they offer.

Al Mazaya’s Weekly Report summarises the key factors behind the change in investment priorities experienced by world real estate markets. The main factors, according to the report, are the changes introduced by world economic and financial regimes into their lists of investment destinations and priorities. Changes in terms of competitiveness and ability to lure foreign investments and protect local ones are also highlighted by the report.

Recent indications revealed that the UK realty market – despite the recent official decision to walk away from the European Union before 2017 and the resultant fall in GBP – still maintains a robust investment appeal.

This is explained by the unprecedented investment edge enjoyed by the UK realty market, with London still being the favorite business destination for foreigners, especially those from the Gulf Region. This investment excellence is attributed to so many aspects of the investment climate, including a secure and economically and politically stable environment that abounds in several future investment opportunities, especially in light of the current changes witnessed by UK.

The report noted that the UK economy will continue to influence the world’s financial and investment landscape at least over the next two years by virtue of a robust real estate market that is still at its best, maintaining high potential to help lure more foreign investors.

The Dubai realty market, according to the report, boasts a potential investment attraction tantamount to that of London, due to its stability and luring environment. This is despite the corrective trend that is sometimes experienced by some economic sectors, particularly the real estate one, along with the fall in world oil prices, which has not yet triggered a fundamental long-term impact on the realty market. Instead, a continuous real estate activity is going on, bolstered by a regular launch of real estate projects by the government and private sector to meet real demand on commercial and residential units, particularly the mid-income bracket property in both the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

The report predicted that the oil prices – should they exceed the current $49 level reached by Brent Crude by end of September – will reflect positively on different economic sectors, increasing liquidity and regaining market attractiveness.

Such positive predictions are contingent on an oil price increase scenario, the report indicated. Before developing long-term strategies, it is preferable to ensure oil price stability, in order to control investment risks on all sectors. The report also recommends that separate and selective assessments of investment opportunities should be conducted per market in terms of liquidity, mortgage rates and investment opportunities to ensure success.

With regards to the real estate market in Turkey, the report noted that all indications show it will continue to remain in the forefront, thanks to its robust investment plans and considerable potential and incentives, including tax exemption for up to 5 years starting in 2017. This is coupled with a strong supply-demand mechanism and highly attractive property investment environment, according to the report.

Competitiveness levels will remain at an all-time-high among GCC States and Turkey, according to the report. The UK realty market will keep its robust appeal, speeding up competitiveness among all these countries.

The report pointed out that real estate markets in the region still remain at the required positive levels, rising between 1.53 per cent and 3.8 per cent in GCC States. This, in turn, reflected positively on the inflation rates resulting from the fall in oil prices and decline in investment liquidity, helping real estate markets lure more foreign investments.

The current inflation rates give the region’s markets a fair long-term investment advantage. Any additional fall in oil prices, however, would drive inflation rates up to a danger zone that would necessitate additional austerity measures over the coming year and the years to come, the report pointed out.

The availability of investment options and opportunities on world real estate markets has strengthened quality and enhanced competitiveness, said the report, adding that integrated promotion and marketing campaigns are needed to lure investors into the Gulf region, consequently stepping up competiveness levels.

The region’s markets enjoy real estate diversity that is robust enough to ensure a highly competitive environment. Low mortgage interest rates play a fundamental role in enhancing local property market attractiveness, thus wooing individual investors to go for more mortgages.

The report concludes by underlining the ability of Gulf markets to accommodate diverse real estate investments at the residential, commercial or tourism levels.

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Real Estate Prices Reflect Global Supply-Demand Equilibrium

Market conditions have helped mitigate a potential negative impact on property prices

The real estate market in the region witnessed unsteady, hovering rates that have brought landlords tangible yields over the past two years. A state of unsteadiness resulted in surging real estate prices and a remarkable fall in sales due to multifaceted real estate demand, varying impact of financial and economic challenges across all business sectors, and a yawning gap between property prices in top localities.

According to Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Report, market conditions helped mitigate a potential negative impact on property prices. In the meantime, the real estate markets in the region did not witness a collapse in rental prices, with the recorded price plummet remaining within rational levels for investors and end-users alike. The report highlighted the criteria adopted on the Saudi Real Estate Market where state-run authorities are heading for design-driven luxury hotels that are subject neither to the demand – supply mechanism nor to the conventional price growth rates. In excess of a 2 per cent fall was posted in the KSA Real Estate Market, with a 20 per cent increase in Jeddah. An annual hike of 3 per cent was recorded on average in rental prices that have been increasing in different proportions for the second year running.  Such a trend has caused landlords to curb the increasing prices of existing real estate investments.

On the Bahraini Market, the Al Mazaya Holding Report indicated that the prices have not been affected by the sharp plummeting of oil prices though the country is largely dependent on oil revenues. The real estate values exhibited tangible growth in the first half of this year, with office rentals remaining stable during the same period. In the meantime, a rental price growth was posted in many locations, thanks to the robust supply-demand mechanism, which is a direct result of the Bahraini Government’s plans to provide Bahraini nationals with decent accommodation. These plans fructified into infrastructure developments aimed at strengthening growth rates across different economic platforms, primarily tourism, trade and industry.

In Qatar, a 25 per cent fall in prices was recorded since the beginning of the year due to real estate oversupply, the report indicated.

Expatriates have multiple and competitive apartment rental options in surrounding areas within the capital’s proximity, with an increasing number of residential units being pumped into the market to meet stable demand levels. The considerable amount of liquidity and the value of ongoing government enterprises worth more than QR 260 billion play a significant role in keeping the market equilibrium in times of recovery and low economic growth alike.

The report termed the current real estate price fall in Qatar as a self-correcting tendency, following the continuous price hikes witnessed all over the past years. Such a decline, according to the report, is likely to beef up demand across all real estate categories, including those currently in supply as well as those to be marketed over the coming period.

In Dubai, the report said that price indications are more realistic and rather reflect, to a large extent, a natural supply-demand mechanism, fair rates and competitiveness. This is attributed, according to the report, to the rich variety in demand sources and to the number of real estate units available. The report added that the rules and regulations governing the official real estate sectors play a fundamental role in maximising real estate yields, ensuring more stability and growth, thanks to the government’s constant follow-up and update of these rules and regulations.

Recorded dates showed Dubai apartment sales prices edging down to 12 per cent on average, with luxurious units seeing a considerable price plummet. Average priced apartments exhibited more flexibility with the market variables, according to the report, with apartment rentals recording a 2 per cent decrease and office rentals maintaining the current balanced prevailing rates.

In Abu Dhabi, the market is witnessing oversupply, while almost all the rental prices remain unchanged. Some units located outside the capital have recorded a fall in rental prices.

The report highlighted the positive social impact of the housing projects being increasingly implemented by the region’s governments for their citizens. However, according to the report, the inclusion of these residential units within the lists of supplied property and defining demand rates and prices accordingly would lead to incorrect indicators and data that might impinge on future plans and consequently might create negative results in terms of investment returns and market overall stability.

Therefore, multiple market-oriented measurement parameters have to be developed in order to define real rental and sale prices, said the report. Maximising real estate sale incentives has become largely dependent on returns indicators, owing to the availability of various investment options at the local, regional and global levels, which makes real estate investments available for all nationalities worldwide.

The report concluded that providing residential units is no longer the only investment incentive, as stable annual returns are becoming a clear favourite with investors. In addition, the decline in rental prices region-wide is still merely self-correcting, as the prices have not yet edged down toward their real levels.

A Convenient Investment Environment and Transparency Drive Optimism in Gulf Construction Sectors

The Business Climate Index indicates that foreign investors will seek new technology standards, despite large start-up capitals

The coming year will witness accelerated construction activities in the Arab Gulf Region to meet the growing demand for residential units and investment enterprises, according to the Business Climate Index (BCI), a survey-based indicator that measures the pulse of the business community.

The index, which is a closely monitored leading indicator for economic activity, predicted a quantum change in the type of construction and realty sectors targeted by foreign investors who, according to the index, will seek new technologies and standards despite the huge start-up capital required by the industry. The index attributed this positive trend to the transparency and the rule of law that solidifies the investment environment in the region.

According to the BCI, these predictions are aligned with the recorded improved levels in consumer positive sentiment with respect to the current and future economic conditions in the construction sectors of GCC states. The predictions show remarkable consistency in the data revealed by the development indices in all Arab countries.

Al Mazaya Holding’s weekly report expects that the construction sector will be favorably affected by a set of positive factors that create optimism about the business outlook in this sector, including the inflation rates, which are considered one of the key indicators that determine industry prospects, overall attractiveness and the ability to survive pressures and generate ultimate profit potential.

The construction sector in the Gulf region will show remarkable progress on different platforms, which will reflect positively on the GDPs of GCC States this year and the next few years, during which good growth rates up of up to 3.4% will be achieved, according to the report. This is attributed to the growing interest displayed by the government and private sectors in the construction industry, with the governments of these countries vying with each other to improve their business environment by providing further impetus to reforms that improve their economic development efforts.

Most of the Gulf countries are suffering high inflation rates that reached up to 1.8 per cent in the first quarter of this year, the report indicated. The inflation caused by unsubsidised water, electricity and gas services is not included in this percentage. In this respect, the report highlighted that the GCC states’ decisions to lift the direct subsidy provided a large number of commodities, the top of which are energy by-products.

The report noted that Gulf countries are surging ahead with strategic future plans and visions aimed at ensuring top rankings at different business platforms. These plans are premised on increasing productivity and dependence on non-oil resources to boost their GDPs. Recent statistics show that the forecast growth of non-oil sectors in the region will reach up to 3.5 per cent during this year, with the construction sector spearheading efforts to improve confidence in different business platforms. Other production platforms, atop of which come processing industries, will play an eminent role in the drive of economic growth over the coming period.

The positive business outlook in the UAE creates more optimism and confidence as shown by the progress recorded by the business indicators during the second quarter of this year, according to the report. Up to 65 per cent of the companies operating in the UAE are planning to expand their investments over the coming period, with the industrial and construction sectors leading the optimistic outlook.

UAE’s first place ranking among Arab countries on the Global Innovation Index for 2016 provides considerable impetus for further improvement on different business platforms, not to mention to the set of rules and regulations and sophisticated infrastructure developed to cope with the new business developments – all these incentives have helped mitigate the impact of inflation and enabled the country to secure advanced positions on the foreign investment and market competency map.

The Saudi economy posted a 1.5 per cent growth rate during the first quarter of this year compared to the same period of last year, as per the Saudi Balance of Payments statistics, added the report. The KSA economy is expected to continue growing up to 1.3 per cent by the end of the year as a direct result of the recorded 5 per cent rise in oil prices.

Business indicators in Bahrain and Oman showed remarkable leaps, with Bahrain recording an advanced position on the Human Capital Index and Oman leading the Transparency Index.

This progress is coupled with persistent endeavors made by the GCC states to ensure accountability and transparency, despite the mounting pressures faced by the production sectors as a result of rising costs, reducing subsidy and the concomitant decrease in related activities and projects.

Al Mazaya Holding’s Report underlined the necessity of conducting close reviews of economic and investment plans and implementing cost optimization policies aimed at reducing inflation rates in order to ensure a positive business outlook over the coming period.

This positive business outlook will not be possible unless the property sector experiences further recovery and lures more projects. In addition, banking and credit sectors have to provide full support to fund these projects and investment plans in order to ensure the aspired business optimism levels. Strengthening private-public sector partnership is another requirement for these projects to see the light of the day.

Weathering recurrent crises are the responsibility of the Government & Private Sector

Cityscape 2016 creates feasible solutions for the issues in the Property Development Industry

A diverse and balanced real estate market that meets the demands and requirements of all parties concerned needs a well-integrated and resilient construction sector that can survive the existing property development challenges. The existence of such a buoyant market depends on the level of liquidity and funding mechanisms available and the prospects for growth possessed by operating real estate developers and contractors.

A reliable outlook of the real estate market entails an insightful review of the lessons learned from this sector across the region. This review, in turn, necessitates a consolidated strategy to find best possible solutions to any potential failures in the future. Within this context, the GCC’s construction sector has proved to be heading for a more efficient structuring, streamlining and re-organization of its businesses, including those already executed as well as those still in the pipeline. Developers in the construction sector now have the expertise that enables them to cope with market economics and cycles, which are always the main factors behind the challenges faced by the sector. However, risks of failure where companies might be forced to close their doors are still looming in the foreseeable future, as market integrity and efficiency are still subject to some factors, including competitiveness and the ability to control the market.

Al Mazaya Holding’s weekly report states that a decline in real estate enterprises has a negative impact on the level of competitiveness, producing a general tightening of liquidity that impacts investment in real estate development. This, according to the report, results in the increasing risk of failures. These are attributed to several factors, some of which are associated with real estate developers, while others are related to GDP and infrastructure development plans. The ultimate result is higher demand and soaring real estate prices.

The report shed extensive light on the UAE’s Construction Sector, being one of the fastest growing across the entire region, where it is likely to remain resilient and experience growth despite the pressing financial and economic challenges, thanks to its genuine level of demand in times of low economic growth and its high demand levels during an economic boom.

Moreover, external demand from different sources ensures sustained demand levels. However, it has transpired that the UAE’s Construction Sector has started to be negatively affected, as is the case in other regional markets, by tightening liquidity levels, which, in turn, impacts investment into real estate development, and consequently results in ebbing funding sources.

The report indicated that the UAE’s Real Estate Market continues to lead the region’s markets, with Dubai getting over 44% of the total construction contracting awards during the first half of 2016, bringing the total value of construction contracting awards to $13.6 billion. Statistics show that the UAE absorbs more than 58% of the total construction enterprises in GCC States, especially during the first half of 2016, a fact that proves the resilience of this market and reflects a positive outlook of its current and future state.

The report stated that the construction sector across the region suffers from many challenges and complications, with state governments failing to provide clear-cut and direct support to help the sector survive rising pressures. This lack of support leaves the construction companies in limbo, suffering from mounting financial burdens, and ultimately forcing them to withdraw from the markets due to their inability to make up for the accumulating financial losses, resulting from their failure to collect back funds spent on executed projects. The report indicates that more than 60% of Arab construction developers face liquidity-related challenges and that the decline in real estate activity and in government expenditures on infrastructure projects is likely to aggravate market conditions. Such a situation requires more deliberations and cooperation between all real estate development companies from all over the region in order to make use of the business activity registered on one market or another from time to time. Furthermore, such cooperation is likely to enhance these companies’ competitive edge overseas. It is noteworthy that revealed data indicates an increase of $2.5 billion in the due financial amounts of the construction sector, a fact that reflects the tightening liquidity levels, and consequently the burdens real estate developers are suffering at present.

The report revealed that there are many reasons behind the current fall among construction companies and that they differ from one market to another and from one country to another. The Saudi Market faces myriad domestic challenges, atop of which come the funding pressures, manpower and the state measures that are developed to limit foreign worker numbers as part of the Saudization Programme. Furthermore, the declining government expenditure on development projects as part of the Economic Transformation Vision 2030 has triggered tough restructuring measures in several large and medium-scale companies and augured the exodus of large numbers of small developers.

The report adds that the continuing pressures are likely to have a negative impact on other sectors, atop of which come the petrochemicals, telecommunications, insurance and industrial sector companies – the latter boast the largest share of government funding. It is noteworthy that a large number of the construction companies operating in KSA receive and rely on the government’s financial support, and therefore, the recent funding constraints are likely to aggravate the liquidity crunch, augmenting to over 40% of the percentage of financially ailing enterprises.

The challenges that major powers and oil-exporting countries are going through, and the failure to secure full recovery from the recent financial crunch have their own negative impact on all other sectors and activities, including the service sector in its entirety, according to the report. This negative impact, said the report, will reach out to the financial sector and hit the expansion plans of the industrial sector, which has boasted a large portion of the government funding over the past 10 years.

Cityscape 2016, according to the report, has provided clear indications of the construction sector performance in all the countries participating in this major real estate exhibition. The real estate units showcased during the event, the demand indicators, and the rates of the transactions clinched during the exhibition have provided clear indications of the present and future of this sector, creating solutions that real estate developers will rely on over the coming period in their quest for more efficient strategies in face of the current challenges, primarily the lack of liquidity. Such strategies include a change in direction toward more projects with more specialized and sophisticated themes that hold high chances of success in terms of execution, timed-fixed schedules and high-returns. This will not materialize except through exercising more focus on developments of high economic value and feasibility that enjoy increasing demand from different segments of the society, including both local and foreign investors and end-users.

Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Real Estate Report

Recession of real estate activities gives local companies a competitive advantage over foreign companies

In spite of several impediments and challenges, many countries in the region have been able to maintain their investment attractiveness at both foreign and domestic levels. Competition among countries did not limit the movement of investment to all economic sectors; however, foreign companies’ entry into the region’s economies has had considerable impact on economic development. They also have had a role in transferring various modern technology and techniques that have made the development of various sectors feasible.

Moreover, the efforts of the region’s countries have been focused on developing their tax exemption laws in order to attract foreign investments, in addition to offering more investment incentives to foreign companies. They moved towards developing human capital as well as corporate governance. This would encourage foreign companies to continue their work, entry and investment, especially in the real estate sector, which has undergone unprecedented growth over the past ten years. Foreign companies and investments have had a considerable and direct role in this growth over the last decade.

 

Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Real Estate Report points out that the regional economies possess ideal investment attractiveness to foreign companies – this attractiveness is attributed to type, volume and number of the projects as well as the timeframe required for completion. This has encouraged companies to continue investing for a long period of time on the one hand, while on the other hand, the profit level has led these companies to expand their activities. Moreover, the development of legislative framework – which has been kept apace of reported development – has played an important role in achieving the successes targeted by both governments and the private sector.

Furthermore, the big challenge in this respect lies in the economic capacity of the region’s countries to attract foreign companies in order to benefit from them through techniques, experiences, and capital investments. It is no longer feasible to attract foreign companies to acquire transactions, contracts and investment opportunities alone. This is the case for the power sector, real estate sector or even the services sector, unless these investments are medium to long-term. It is worth mentioning that the volume of financial and economic pressures impedes the entry of further direct investment companies at present due to the accelerated pace of events and amendments introduced to investment plans over a short span of time.

With regards to the UAE model, Al Mazaya’s Report states that the open door policy adopted by the UAE for attracting foreign companies and investment has contributed to improving its rating among the region’s countries in terms of its ability to attract diverse investments, thanks to its economic resilience in the face of global economy developments. This is in addition to low taxes on imports, and even zero taxes on imports for companies registered in free trade zones. Other factors include the low level of credit risks and constant improvement in the elements of competition. It is worth mentioning that the number of branches of foreign companies in the UAE is increasing daily, reaching 1,941 branches at the end of first quarter of the current year.

Professional and trading licenses accounted for the largest portion of companies coming to invest, while the industrial companies acquired the lowest portion. It’s worth noting here that the strength of the UAE’s economy – which mainly depends on oil and gas sector – has declined and affected foreign investments as well as the number of the companies entering the market. This is because, as an entry plan, foreign companies were relying on major industrial projects and huge investments, which were being prepared during the period before the drop in oil revenues. Thus, the decline in the total investment capitals at the domestic level will have a negative impact on the desire of foreign companies to enter and invest.

 

Al Mazaya’s Report also touched upon the state of investment growth reported in the investment markets in the KSA, in light of the new movement to open the way for foreign companies, particularly in the wholesale and retail sector. The Kingdom considered new amendments to the current foreign ownership percentage, as set forth by the World Trade Organization (WTO), potentially reaching 100% foreign ownership. The report also pointed out that the foreign and mixed companies, which have been granted business licenses by the Saudi market were 10 companies in total. While the capital of these companies exceeds 66 million USD, these were mainly concentrated in the sectors of pharmaceutical, medical and aircrafts parts industries, in addition to the business licenses granted in the commercial and construction sectors, which are heading towards more mixed companies.

It is noteworthy that according to previous statistics, the number of foreign companies in Saudi Arabia has reached 13,000 buildings. Meanwhile, the value of construction projects has reached 1.2 trillion dollars, representing one of the largest markets for the construction sector. Al Mazaya’s Report indicates that the contracting companies showed further indicators of weakness and insolvency during the first half of the current year, which may lead to high rates of unemployment and interruption in the development projects, particularly after the rise in default projects reached a 40% of the total number of development projects. The developments of the Saudi economy may lead to the postponement of the entry of foreign investment companies until the macroeconomic indicators stabilize.

Furthermore, Al Mazaya’s Report pointed out that a big number of foreign companies, particularly the construction companies, have headed towards the Qatari market several years ago, owing to the high number of mega and development projects, as well as the short period set for completion. This gives the priority to foreign companies, due to their superior capabilities and more qualified staff, as compared to the local companies that are striving to improve their capabilities to maintain their position in the market against the competition imposed by foreign companies. The report also states that the Qatari market is attractive for investment and business in different fields as it is a growing market that is developing rapidly. As a result, foreign companies are interested in entering the Qatari market to benefit from the reported growth and achieve huge gains of profits, reputation and expansion.

Data released by the Ministry of Economy and Commerce pointed out that the value of contracts with foreign companies reached QAR12 million at the end of the first quarter of the current year. Single person companies ranked in first place, while the limited liability companies came second followed by general partnership companies. On the other hand, construction companies headed the new records followed by the building materials trading companies. It is noteworthy that the construction sector in Qatar is almost wholly controlled by foreign companies, a matter which would reduce the positive impact of investment volumes on domestic companies and the local economy in the long-term.

Al Mazaya’s Report asserts that the events and activities, first of which are the real estate exhibitions, would reveal the volume of challenges and investment opportunities generated by different economic sectors in the region. These events are able to reflect the ability of the region’s economies to attract foreign companies with capitals and not companies that provide services and get mega projects which deprive the countries in the region from economic benefits. This includes the pace of activity and the investment momentum under all circumstances. Thus, it has become necessary to move towards mixed companies as they provide further flexibility and continuity for domestic companies, ensure their survival in changing market conditions, and a minimum positive return for the local economies. These real estate exhibitions will have a role in testing market results during the coming period and till the end of the year. This is contingent on the total indicators and overall results showed by the region’s markets.

Al Mazaya’s Report stressed that the challenges faced by the majority of economic sectors in the present will slow down the entry of foreign companies, whether at the level of investment or the level of service provision, thus benefiting from the varying activities provided by the local economy. These will also impact the domestic companies and the real estate companies will be at the heart of these developments, as many of these companies will exit the market as a result of the decline in their market shares, resulting from the cutback in the pace of investment and real estate and development projects.

Moreover, investment plans and investment attractiveness will be affected by the challenges faced by the region’s economy. It is also noteworthy that incentives packages are still encouraging foreign investment in all circumstances, taking into consideration that the need for investment and experiences of foreign companies vary in the region. Meanwhile, we are currently witnessing the ability of domestic companies to manage local projects and acquire large and diverse foreign investments.

Unstable Market Conditions Represent the Best Investment Period for Reduced Prices, High Investment Values and Returns  Affordable Real Estate Products for Youth Will Help Activate Demand

 

High-net-worth individuals have led the shift in the real estate sector due to the strong demand in any community. It is the influence of HNWI that has made a change in the laws and legislations relevant to freehold or foreigners’ ownership at several international real estate markets. However, it would be an exaggeration to say that HNWI are those who led the investment and finance movement for the real estate sector in the region’s markets over the past years or contributed to accelerating construction pace, introducing major amendments to the supply and demand forces or to medium and long-term investment tools.

Goals and trends of HNWI depend on profit and loss laws and calculation of risks in any investment. Hence, we can say that the disorders in the real estate markets and finance channels are mainly attributed to the different decisions made by wealthy people. Moreover, this segment bears the largest share of responsibility for the collapses experienced by real estate and capital markets in the global economy. It has become remarkable that laws and legislation have become more cautious against the moves of capitalists and more efficient in monitoring them, with the purpose of minimizing the impact of capital movement and benefiting from the existence of such capitals in all circumstances. This depends on the availability of feasible investment opportunities as well as the examination of the potential risk levels at the target investment markets.

In this regard, Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Real Estate Report points out that in spite of the series of changes observed in major economic sectors, investment in real estate would remain the best type of investment for the HNWI population in the region and around the world. Luxury real estate products are at the top of their preference list, as they are adequately flexible in terms of liquidity factor.

Liquidity challenges and the decline in the volume of capital available for investment affect the HNWI’s plans for spending and investment, as the prices of the targeted real estate products have become within the limit of the targeted prices over the present period. On the other hand, it is not possible to ignore the fact that the HNWI, and clients in general, have become more conscious about the value and fair prices of real estate products today. Thus, they attempt to look for better investment opportunities.

Al Mazaya’s report asserts that the property markets of Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha represent the most targeted markets by GCC investors in general, and, in particular, Saudi as well as Kuwaiti investors. Challenges create opportunities for both capitalists and HNWI. Hence, unstable market conditions are considered among the best times to enter into real estate investment and enjoy the reduced prices, high investment values and returns on both the medium and long run.

On the other hand, Al Mazaya’s report reveals that real estate investment represents a core part of the long-term investment plans by young individuals who are planning for future retirement. They have current plans to benefit from the moves and firmness of real estate values as one of the available options to get the best returns upon retirement. The Report further states that early planning means allowing time to procure and save funds, besides acquiring a high level of professionalism and experience which enable them to make accurate investments with the least level of risks.

For young individuals, the real estate investment options are varied and cover several markets over the present period, including houses, villas and residential apartments, besides investment in offices and retail outlets, which secure fixed monthly rental income. This is one of the easiest types of real estate investment. In this regard, we should stress the importance of encouraging this type of investment among young people, which, in turn, would help protect the real estate market from fluctuations and secure the highest level of activity and balanced demand.

Investment in this market is of a long-term nature and does not aim at benefiting from market fluctuations for finalizing prompt sale and purchase transactions based on current price indicator. Rather, it aims to secure a net income for the investor in the long run, and optimizing of the values of basic investment with every rise in real estate value over time.

In this respect, Al Mazaya’s report points out that the capital required for investment would not be large or involve high risks. On the contrary, they would have plans for repayment on both short and medium runs. The total investment values to be provided would not be large, given the volume of liquidity available at the markets for financing purchase deals of small and medium-sized real property. That’s to say that securing about 70% of the value of target real property would be an easy task through obtaining loans and facilities from all finance channels. Repayment should be processed in monthly installments. Most often, this type of investment is a low risk one. The major risk here is the low rental value due to changes or shifts observed in the markets from time to time, noting that investment in real estate is considered an optimum choice under all circumstances for young individuals who are looking for methods which enable them to generate long-term stable returns – a source of income for the future. Providing finance to this segment of investors would involve low risk, as they are able to generate and maximize income over time.

It is probably the right time to call real estate companies all over the region to offer real estate products which target the ambitious and driven people in the community, who have both the skill and ability to maximize real estate investment values under all circumstances, away from the government plans which aim to provide decent housing for citizens. These plans would support the balance in markets, bridge the gap between the supply and demand and adjust prevailing prices. However, this constitutes a burden on national budgets, which reduce the ability of community members to save money and provide adequate capital for buying. It should be taken into consideration that if this approach is to continue, the productivity of a community as well as its ability to develop, will decline. The focus here will be on the individuals who are seeking to maximize investment values through their ability to select the best investment tools, based on the right interpretation and study of the real estate market indicators as well as growth indicators of the economic sectors and future forecasts. This focus would promote real estate investment values, stability and growth indicators at the level of market and economy, and would also increase the value of investment assets at the individual level.

It is important to provide real estate products which are convenient for particular segments in the community, due to the easy management of such projects by all parties: real estate developers, financers and local economy. Launching real estate projects and units that are convenient for young investors would increase demand indicators in the real estate market, restore the high level of liquidity and bring back investment to the right track, in addition to having a positive impact on real estate activity. On the other hand, various finance channels would be ready to seize investment opportunities generated by this activity through providing appropriate medium and long-term finance with the limit of well-studied and foreseen risk levels. It is worth mentioning that the availability of appropriate real estate products will increase the inflow of foreign investors, thus injecting more real estate liquidity that the market will be in need of more than ever.

Al Mazaya’s report stresses the importance of providing high levels of harmony among all stakeholders in the real estate market at the present time: individual, corporate and government. It is important to note that a large portion of real estate products offered at present is convenient for HNWI in the region and abroad – a matter which caused a wide gap between supply and demand, along with considerable challenges which make a large number of community members unable to invest at prevailing price rates. These properties are only affordable for high-income individuals and are not appropriate for individual investment, as this latter should include high level of returns, but they are unavailable due to high investment values as compared to its annual returns. In this regard, we should bear in mind that real estate markets are facing further risks due to the focus of investment on a particular target segment. All the challenges and crises experienced by real estate markets currently fail to address this trend.

Banking Sector’s Plans and Trends are the Most Influential Factors on the Real Estate Sector’s Liquidity Volume

Real Estate Markets of the Region are in need of innovative marketing plans and strategies to improve liquidity indicators

Liquidity volume affects real estate market indicators, expansion plans of the banking sector as well as trends of both individual and corporate investors under all circumstances. The positive and negative impacts of the amount of investment liquidity available extend to all sectors, first of which is the real estate sector. Regardless of the pace of activity and supply and demand status, real estate is in need of specific liquidity rates to maintain the pace of its activity and the continuation of projects. Liquidity is also important when it comes to maintaining balanced price levels without going back to limits that cause many companies to exit the market.

 

High liquidity values would support the speculation trend, and, consequently, raise real estate product values. This is obvious when the speculation trend coincides with a cutback in supply level. Also, the drop in liquidity values would lead to soaring prices of real estate products, thus making it difficult to provide real estate units for the end user. It is without doubt that the plans and trends of the banking sector are considered one of the most important influential factors in the liquidity level of the real estate sector, and other sectors as well. Therefore, the liquidity levels and finance strategies help determine the volume and number of projects as well as the costs and final price of the product.

In this context, Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Real Estate Report points out that there are indicators for decline in liquidity values in the British real estate sector, which is a direct result of the Brexit decision. Therefore, investment in real estate has been slowing down.

The first adverse impact resulting from the Brexit decision was that several real estate funds have suspended their investment activities in London. Meanwhile, the majority of real estate funds are experiencing an increasing demand from investors to withdraw their funds, a matter which maximises the possibility of these funds and their investment being exposed to considerable losses. Moreover, these developments would directly and indirectly impact the British real estate market, while the adverse impacts will increase in case the impact extends to the banking sector through re-evaluation of real estate finance plans at the individual and organisational levels. The unclear image dominating the markets following the announcement of results of the referendum is driving the trend towards further pressures on the liquidity of the real estate sector as a whole, particularly if the relevant authorities will not take the appropriate measures to minimise the severe impact of Brexit on the British economy as a whole.

Al Mazaya’s Report points out that the Saudi real estate market isn’t much better nowadays, as the available data reflects a 20% decline in the values and numbers of real estate transactions during the first half of the current year. The residential sector declined by 25% while, on the other hand, the real estate market is also facing up to 1% decline in mortgage loans offered by commercial banks.

This decline comes as a result of cutback in corporate loans, which went down by 4%, while retail real estate loans marked an inconsiderable rise at the end of the second quarter to reach to SAR 108 billion. It is worth mentioning here that the share of retail real estate loans has surpassed corporate loans. The aggregate retail and corporate real estate loans during the first half of the current year marked an increase of up to 12% as compared to the corresponding period of the past year. On the other hand, real estate investment ratios have also marked a decrease of up to 15%, due to recent inflation factors in the Saudi real estate market. This is in addition to investors’ abstention from developing the housing sector due to financial difficulties and the impact of imposing fees on vacant lands and on investment moves. It is noteworthy that the latest market developments push investors towards attractive sectors outside real estate development, with the aim of maximising cash flows.

Al Mazaya’s report reveals that the Qatari real estate market is affected by the developments in the local, regional and global markets. Qatari real estate market is currently ranked among the world’s most dynamic markets, with a huge number of real estate and development projects underway. It has become clear that the available liquidity is affected by the marked increase of real estate products, and, thus, the returns expected from these investments are much less than the returns expected in similar investments abroad, especially when compared to the investment values that went up during the first half of current year to over QAR 34 billion. Investments were divided to a number of global cities and metropolises, as well as major sectors, first of which is the British market, followed by the USA market, while the French market came third in rank and focused mainly on the real estate sector, in addition to investment in fashion, transport, tourism resorts, and energy.

The rise in the value of Qatari investments abroad affects the value of investment available in the local market. The activity pace as well as values of deals in the Qatari real estate market declined by 56% in the first quarter, as compared to the same period of 2015. It is worth mentioning here that real estate prices marked declines of up to 7.8%, according on the statistics issued by the Central Bank of Qatar. This could represent good indicators for rising values of deals and liquidity.

We cannot look into real estate market liquidity at the level of sale and purchase deals and the values of finance provided to real estate development companies without considering the plans and strategies of the banking sector and levels of liquidity available in it for investment. Most remarkably, the aggregate liquidity of local economies at the regional level is facing further decline, a matter which could impact the values of deposits and available liquidity that might have an adverse impact on the aggregate economic activity pace, thus affecting the real estate market. Moreover, market indicators reveal that several banks are turning towards maximising their liquidity ratios through resorting to the lending market in order to avoid any declines in the values of cash flows, mainly due to the drop in oil revenues and oil deposits. It is worth mentioning here that sources of cheap liquidity coming from government deposits are experiencing continuing decline, a matter which could affect lending prices and costs at the individual and organisational. Besides, this would affect the lending of real estate projects, which take the form of intermediate to long-term finance, due to the nature of these projects and payment schedules.

Al Mazaya’s report also addressed the importance of the availability of investment and finance liquidity at the real estate market of the region’s countries on a permanent basis. This can be achieved by creating promotional and marketing programs by real estate developers, and advanced and innovative financing tools offered by financers from time to time. These programs and tools should keep apace with the current developments and changes in both the real estate market and the banking sector. It is worth mentioning here that the decline in liquidity levels in the real estate sector would bring about considerable, comprehensive and adverse impacts and consequences, which surpass the impact resulting from the decline in liquidity values in stock markets from one trading session to another. This is because the investment in the real estate market is considered a direct investment that serves all economic sectors, while investment in the stock market is considered an individual decision because the positive and negative impacts only affect the investor.

In this context, Al Mazaya’s report addressed the plans and strategies related to raising the values of foreign investment in major sectors, a part of which has failed thus far. This is due to the fact that the investment attractiveness and return stability of several sectors are going down at rates exceeding the risk rates of investments in other destinations and sectors around the globe. Thus, there is a considerable responsibility on all stakeholders to reevaluate the investment climate and look for investment tools that can attract investment liquidity needed by the economies of the region’s countries. It is worth mentioning here that these economies are in need of direct investments far more than indirect investments, which proved a failure in the first financial challenge their economies faced.

Al Mazaya Reviews 2012-2015 Files

Cityscape event to address market fluctuations and regulatory tools

Real estate exhibitions attract a lot of attention to regional property markets and often have a positive impact on the current status and future of the real estate sector. Thanks to their role in stimulating the pace of financial, commercial and service activity within the market, real estate exhibition activities create a state of healthy competition between international cities, with each looking to win the honour of hosting such events.

One of the key international events, Cityscape Global, will be hosted by Dubai next month, with developments and changes in the real estate and other sectors set to be at the forefront of discussions. The changing levels of investment priorities for the governments of the region – and the world – is notable in relation to their positive impacts and learning from experiences gained from an understanding of errors and difficulties faced by former events. By offering projects that are suitable for all society segments, these events have learned that they need to adapt to all new circumstances in order to stay relevant.

Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Real Estate Report considers real estate exhibitions and their accompanying activities among the most important drivers for business, at regional and international levels. The most renowned drivers have the largest impact on real estate and non-real estate development areas and investment fields. The wider impact of these events extends to the role they play in highlighting viewpoints of different investor categories: visitors, real estate developers, organisers and official bodies. They also showcase available investment opportunities, new projects and develop job opportunities and investments at the local level.

It is noteworthy that real estate exhibitions and events of a global nature have proved feasible at the level of providing communication mechanisms and channels between investors and developers as well as end user at the market at the region’s level, and contributed, as a whole, to encouraging individual and corporate investment. Al-Mazaya’s report states that the importance of exhibitions extends to remedying and discussing critical real estate issues and others’ experiences in facing the challenges and impediments facing the real estate market. This is in addition to promoting knowledge, gaining experiences related to the real estate sector, transparency indicator improvement mechanisms for supporting investment as well as current and potential investors. It has become evident that many entities are awaiting these real estate events and activities. Meanwhile, Cityscape exhibition is considered the largest platform for showcasing the developments, projects and latest updates related to real estate world.

Al Mazaya’s report addresses the journey and experiences of Cityscape events during the recovery period in 2012 – this is generally considered the starting year of real estate market recovery at the regional level from the aftermath of global financial crisis, as it was able to attract international exhibitors, marking growth rates exceeding 50%. Cityscape 2012 was considered a round of refreshment; testing real estate indicators and real demand indicators synchronously with the offering by local real estate companies of new projects helped increase the number of visitors and attracted further investors.

The exhibition carried new titles in 2012, aimed at securing investments, promoting levels of confidence and improving the investment environment. In this regard, it is worth mentioning that the successes attained by Cityscape Global that year had a considerable effect on investment decisions of both individuals and companies. It also motivated many investors to liquidate their investments and allocate them towards real estate sector, which marked a rise in return rates as compared to other opportunities, risk levels, and time periods required for achieving these returns.

In 2013, the real estate market in the region in general, and in Dubai in particular, resumed its revival journey. The market was tested by the events and activities of projects offered during the days of Cityscape Exhibition 2013, which was considered by then a platform for consolidating the global culture in the local real estate market. Moreover, the exhibition witnessed remarkable attendance of buyers, end users, and the participation of largest local and international real estate development companies. It was remarkable, too – by that time, several varying new real estate projects had been launched – housing, commercial, hotel or even entertainment properties – in addition to the comeback of a number of developers unveiling their future plans utilising the exhibition platform.

The exhibition events of 2013 reflected recessions at the pace of rapid speculations that did not exceed normal ratios, as the pace of activity and number of executed deals as a direct result of positive developments witnessed by the real estate market in Dubai increased. The system of legislation safeguarded the rights of all and also showed the distinguished investment atmosphere provided by the emirate for holding such events and providing several opportunities and options for those seriously seeking work and development. The exhibition is considered the largest and biggest following the global crisis, as it witnessed the offering of further projects, promoting confidence in the local investment environment and durability of the investment environment of the real estate market at the level of the emirate, state and region.

The Al Mazaya report also indicated the exhibition’s impacts during its cycle in 2014 on the real estate market, as well as its positive indicators. First of which was the absence of speculators from the real estate arena and executed deals, while the exhibition witnessed considerable attendance of national real estate companies operating in the local market, which unveiled a package of new development projects that target the investor and end user segment, so that the total value of offered projects reaches about AED 50 billion. Furthermore, the exhibition marked an increase in intensity of competition among the development companies, as a part of their attempts to attract investors and buyers seeking safe investment and real prices in the absence of speculators. The report further states that the remarkable turnout of individual investors had an impact in the success of the exhibition’s events, which resulted in closing tens of purchase deals of both turnkey and off-plan projects. The market pace of activities backed the intent of most real estate companies to attend and permanently participate in launching their projects during the exhibition’s events, given its momentum year after year.

In 2015, the exhibition’s events pursued the success and growth tracks, as the exhibition’s events marked the offering of more ambitious projects, facilitated by the need for housing for middle-income consumers. It is worth mentioning that the Turkish real estate companies were the largest participants in the 2015 exhibition, and the aggregate value of projects offered during the exhibition’s events amounted to AED 3.6 trillion. The exhibition’s pavilions witnessed the participation of the best real estate developers in Dubai, with a remarkable attendance of a group of government real estate and commercial development organisations.

Al Mazaya’s report asserts that all real estate stakeholders have been awaiting the exhibition’s events to offer new and distinguished projects despite the financial, economic and political pressures. Meanwhile, Cityscape Global has become the best means to test recession and boom indicators of the real estate market at the region’s level as a whole. This is in addition to testing the impact of crises that blow away the global and regional real estate, financial, and oil markets. Finally, real estate developers are relying on the level of success of the events of the forthcoming exhibition to continue to maximise the demand and activity pace and encourage finance channels to pump further liquidity and investments. Meanwhile, investors are looking for good investment opportunities to offer further projects that fulfill their needs and coincide with their different objectives at the level of value, prices and feasibility.

Strength and continuation of Gulf Real Estate Investments in Turkey will depend on demand intensity, attractiveness, strength of the Turkish economy and governmental actions

Al Mazaya’s Report: Values of long-term investment in the Turkish economy will be separate from current local crises

 

It is almost unlikely that real estate sector will be negatively affected by the accelerating present-day developments in Turkey. Investments in the real estate sector are considered long-term investments, and this is a time when the real estate sector mainly brings positive impacts to many other sectors and the national economy in general. It is well known that real estate investments mainly take the form of long-term investments, whether individual or corporate, and, as such, their positive impacts outweigh the negative, according to this measure.

Market experiences have proven that real estate sector is mainly affected by general financial and economic events and developments rather than immediate and current local events. Hence, investors look for low-risk real estate assets in order to avoid economic pressures and mitigate the impact on both assets and investments, while liquid capitals resort to investing in gold markets, as short-term dissociation is possible. At the current evaluation level, real estate investments are considered safe investments under all circumstances, and prices of real estate assets mainly mark tangible rises amidst wars and unstable circumstances, a matter which ensures the continuation of real estate investments at the local and global levels. This is based on the premise that the real estate market has become global and all individuals can own and invest in it wherever they are based.

 

Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Real Estate Report points out that foreign real estate investments in Turkey began individually, and then expended to become corporate at the regional and global level. Real estate investment in the Turkish market began to take the form of long-term corporate investment, at a time of increasing demand by individuals to own villas and residential villas for investment or residential purpose, a matter which has motivated many international real estate companies to look towards the Turkish real estate market.

Moreover, the developments of real estate investment laws and facilities related to entry and exit of capitals of both individuals and organizations have direct impact in raising the pace of activity, and it has become likely that these laws and legislations will not be impacted by political developments within the Country and government bodies. Rather, these developments may play a positive role in focusing on foreign investments and attracting more of them to mitigate the negative impact of the coup on the investment move as well as capital flow in the long run. This takes into consideration the fact that individual investment’s attractiveness is still at normal levels and price indicators reflect the difficulty of occurrence of recessions in prevailing prices, given market solidity and continued investment attractiveness.

Furthermore, during the first half of the current year, data from the Turkish real estate market reflected a rise in demand indicators by nationals from the Arab States, while Istanbul retained its position as the region friendliest to foreign investment, followed by Antalya and Burse. Moreover, the demand for purchase of real estate in Ankara and Trabzon marked a remarkable activity, noting here that the ratio of foreigners’ purchase of real estate during the first half decreased by 9% as compared to the market level during the same period of the past year. In this context, it is worth mentioning that the reported pace of activity is parallel to the growth rates achieved by the Turkish economy in 2014, which reached 4%, while the GDP revealed a growth in the Turkish economy in the last quarter of the past year at a rate of 5.7%. Furthermore, the demand for the real estate market went up by 4.7%, and the reported rise rates of sales in real estate in the past year reached 10%. Moreover, investments from Arab nationals account for considerable economic wealth in the Turkish real estate sector and the economy in general.

Al-Mazaya’s report points out that the Turkish economic sector has been negatively impacted by the challenges it has faced and is still facing since the past year. The intensity of the challenges has become stronger and its impacts have maximized in conjunction with the rise in crises in the region and renewal of military operations and the series of explosions that broke out in major cities – especially in Ankara and Istanbul. Market indicators point out that the Turkish market will be affected by the latest events, but will remain solid due to government actions. Internal struggles will not affect the investment attractiveness in the long run, while all indicators reveal that the Turkish economy is still good and has not marked any shakes or recessions due to the unsuccessful coup attempt over the past month, thanks to awareness and perception shown by the Turkish people in protecting the banking sector since the very beginning of coup up to the present moment. Al-Mazaya’s report further points out that the rapid actions taken by the Turkish government to mitigate financial and economic consequences had positive impacts in reassuring investors, particularly Gulf investors, that the government wants to ensure the stability of foreign investments.

Moreover, Al-Mazaya’s report asserted that real estate investment and asset value would be stable, while the tourism sector would be the largest loser as a result of recent developments in the political arena in Turkey that have not yet ended. Market indicators suggest that the tourism sector would face further pressures and challenges after it has undergone successive conflict, starting from the attack on airports and ending with the coup attempt. It is necessary to emphasize here that the tourism sector is considered an important pillar for the Turkish economy, and one of the most importance sources of major foreign currency flow. Hence, the decline in the number of tourists will have negative impact on several economic sectors that are directly and indirectly related to tourism sector, since the tourists in general, and Arab tourists in particular, often turn into investors and buyers of real estate following their first visit. It has become certain that the number of tourists coming to Turkey will go down at a rate that may exceed 2% during the current year, as political developments have occurred amidst summer season, which often marks the peak season for Arab and Gulf tourists to spend their holidays. Accordingly, efforts to attract tourists over the remaining period of the season may probably prove ineffective and unsuccessful.

Al-Mazaya’s report also maintains that gulf real estate investments in Turkey will depend on their strength, continuation and stable prices, on demand strength, attractiveness, strength of the Turkish economy and governmental actions. This indicates that further solidity is needed to minimize any consequences that may arise, since the priorities of the Turkish government include, among others, is undertaking all actions which help maintain the pace of gulf and global investment. It is worth mentioning here that gulf investments vary between real estate investment of individuals and companies as well as investments in the banking sector, tourism and health sectors, which are safe sectors and show solidity indicators. Thus, there is no risk to existing investments, while the responsibility of the Turkish government will include maintaining the pace of trade exchange with the GCC States. The Turkish economy will also try to mitigate the severity of internal turmoil through further partnerships and business deals with foreign entities.

Al-Mazaya’s report asserts that the major challenge facing the Turkish State is its ability to keep offering further investment opportunities at the individual and company level. This will help attract foreign investments over the upcoming period with the current level of instability and the difficult evaluation of the situation over the short upcoming period.

Al-Mazaya’s report emphasizes that the growth and continuation of investments require the presence of a stable economy as well as stable political circumstances, which currently falls on the shoulders of the Turkish economy and those in charge of it. In this context, Al-Mazaya’s report addressed the potentiality of Turkish economy to avail itself of the Brexit decision, as the British metropolis holds the first rank worldwide in absorbing global capitals, thus the potential of maintaining such ranks has become uneasy following the Brexit decision. Thus, many metropolises will seek to attain that advanced position, and, as such, Istanbul’s change is enhanced in this respect, depending on the developed infrastructure it owns as well as financial and economic legislation which go in line with the requirements of occupying such position – these should also be compatible with international standards.

Al-Mazaya’s report also emphasized that risks surrounding long-term investments in the Turkish economy are low, and that liquid as well as short-term investments would be affected by the developments taking place at the political and economic arena in the present time, until their negative impacts come to an end. Al-Mazaya’s report further stresses the importance of the existence of an all-inclusive, solid financial sector over the coming period, given the associated indicators it brings to stability and growth for the remaining sectors and the improvement of investment opportunities.

Dubai Expo  2020  projects  will make the real estate market a safe haven, both regionally and globally

These projects are inspired by an ambitious strategy implemented by the Emirate of Dubai

Recent projects have been able to stimulate sustainability elements and diversity objectives – besides raising the degree of overlap between other projects and key sectors – down to the safe haven levels of the more important and influential sectors in the economic life cycle. Hence, it can be said that the scarcity of safe and profitable projects has come to represent a challenge in itself.

Al Mazaya Holding’s weekly real estate report points out that the ability to move forward in the implementation of all projects and plans, which have been approved and committed to by any of the economies of the countries in the region, represents both investment opportunities and a challenge at the same time. This is because the provision of resources in adequate quantity and quality has become more difficult. Therefore, the economies that can provide those resources will have a top rank on the map of investments and projects in the region and the world. It has also become clear that Dubai Expo’s projects – those that are underway and off plan – represent a major recovery factor to the economic sectors in the UAE at the moment.

Al Mazaya’s report further points out that according to the key indicators showed by the UAE economy over the past couple of years, the local economy will be able to overcome the pressures and keep up with the reported cutback in government spending. This will be through entering into more ambitious projects and providing more investment opportunities that would contribute to maintaining good and safe economic activity for current and future investments. It is worth mentioning that the value of projects surrounding the location of the Expo will reach about AED 80 billion. Meanwhile, real estate developers are speeding up their expansion in Jebel Ali and neighbouring areas. Infrastructure projects are progressing as planned.

Moreover, market prices are also experiencing a remarkable growth. Recently, rents at nearby places have seen a marked increase, in-line with the reported development of the projects in progress. It should be highlighted here that Expo 2020 tenders are being awarded to an elite group of local, regional and international companies, including several SMEs – a matter which reflects the significance of Expo projects for the operating companies and their economic sectors. Besides, efforts are focused on the cooperation with leading innovators and thought leaders from around the world in order to launch and develop creative and distinct ideas which would also expand the economic stimulus at the international level.

Al Mazaya’s report adds that the projects in progress have brought about a rise in the prices of the surrounding plots of land, noting that the current price level is still logical and has not yet reached critical levels, due to the inability to determine the volume and number of projects altogether. This is in addition to the difficulties of estimating the volume and nature of demand and the nature of the use of the projects for the post-event period.

Recent data has indicated that the exhibition will be able to raise the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Emirate of Dubai by at least 2%, which is high when compared to the period of the event, and satisfactory as compared to the volume of investments, while the risks of those investments will increase whenever they are linked to the event itself without continuing to generate revenues during the post-event period. What is clear is that the real estate sector will benefit most from the projects and activities being carried out. In this context, it is noteworthy that developments in global markets and continuing financial pressures have had a role in re-prioritising the projects, with a focus on evaluating the long-term economic feasibility of these projects. Thus, the projects in progress and those on the waiting list are classified among the most feasible and efficient projects over the phases of execution, hosting and beyond.

Al Mazaya’s report also added that the projects already underway are gaining more importance, despite the decline in both the financial and economic activity and the foreign investment seeking investments abroad. Nevertheless, we can say that the direct and indirect Expo projects are protecting the UAE real estate market from recession and substantial losses, thus granting other sectors an acceptable pace of activity that help them survive and persist until the financial and economic pressures are over. It would be no exaggeration to say that the Expo projects have contributed to maintaining the old investments by maintaining their values ​​and keeping the expectations of investors positive for the future.

On the other hand, we cannot conceive the UAE market conditions without Expo projects, which would be subject to several changes, and acute corrections that will have long-term impact. There is no doubt that all the economic sectors will avail themselves of hosting the event, not only the real estate and construction sector. The real estate sector is gearing up to host more than 25 million visitors over six months. Thanks to the strong influence of Expo projects, the real estate market has remained resilient and succeeded in overcoming the sharp declines of prices. The real estate market has been given the option of continuation by launching mega real estate projects.

Al Mazaya’s report emphasises that the success of Expo projects and other projects is part of an ambitious strategy carried out by the Emirate of Dubai for a long time as the Emirate has not suspended its real estate projects and maintained a high pace of construction. Stimulus policies have also continued to attract regional and global investments. Despite the slump in demand for various real estate products, particularly by foreign buyers, the pace of launching real estate projects of all volumes and for all targeted segments has remained unchanged until now. The resilient real estate market in the Emirate has been able to survive despite the decline in both the government spending and the foreign investments, particularly Russian investment. On the contrary, investments from GCC countries remained at high levels and reported a steady growth.

It is worth mentioning that the pace of project activity at the moment indicates a good success rate in overcoming the oil price crisis and the ability of the market to recover, backed by the constant governmental support for the sector. This is in addition to the investments in infrastructure and the launch of more mega real estate projects, in addition to the continuing development of the laws and legislations, which are related to the real estate and non-real estate investments. The updated legal framework is meant to respond to all the changes and requirements of the market and protect the rights of shareholders, developers, buyers and owners. These efforts have contributed and will contribute to maintaining the pace of activity at acceptable limits, under all scenarios in local and international markets.

Al Mazaya’s report further indicates that projects – directly and indirectly related to the event – along with government projects, are all comprehensive as they include several positive aspects. It has become clear that those projects are able to protect the market from several pressures. This fact comes along with the emergence of the first signs of completion of several large and medium sized projects – foremost of which are the Mall of the World project, Mohammed Bin Rashid City Project, Dubai Water Canal, Dubai Amusement Parks Project and Dubai South Project which will host the event. This pace has a positive impact on developers and boosts investor confidence in the Dubai real estate market. In this regard, it is important to emphasise the fact that the cumulative experiences acquired by the real estate market in the emirate over the past period have had substantial influences on the success of all projects, while the supply of projects is in harmony with the pace of demand for housing units. The housing sector has continued to maintain its investment attractiveness, which has supported the buoyancy of the market.

The report also asserts that the pace of projects in progress has contributed to mitigating the decline in real estate prices, as the real estate prices in Dubai over the past two years were marked with slow and gradual declines not exceeding 12% in average, a ratio considered satisfactory relative to the volume of pressures faced by the markets of real estate and non-real estate investment at the global level as a whole.

On the other hand, market data indicates that the prevailing prices so far this year are considered firm, which boosts the attractiveness of the Emirate as one of the top safe havens in global markets. Maintaining the pace of activity and demand along with continued offering of new projects would give the UAE real estate sector an additional competitive edge at a time where many markets face big challenges that are hard to overcome in the short run.

Amid High Demand and Diversity of Investment Opportunities

Al Mazaya’s Report: Health Care Projects are facing competitiveness and high cost risks as they pursue growth

The success or failure of vital projects depends mainly on the nature of the targeted area and forecasts of future demands. At the same time, the individual ability of each project to generate cash flow and contribute to the GDP of any economy depends on specifying the volume and type of these projects and the appropriate timing to invest in them. Remarkably, the investment and expansion plans of countries in the region are developed based on specific economic sectors, through which the pace of economic activity can be raised to the levels of developed countries. This can also help diversify economic activities and income.

When discussing health care projects with regards to domestic demand and providing the community with key services, they are classified under the appropriate development sectors. Meanwhile, if we are talking about expanding health care services at the regional and global level, their importance vastly increases and we can begin discussing them in terms of successful or unsuccessful investments. It is noteworthy here that several of the region’s countries have plans in place for the development of health care services, given their remarkable role in increasing the pace of financial and economic activity. Their positive impact on the establishment of work for many other sectors is also a factor, in addition to developing the level of competition at the global level and raising the countries’ capabilities to develop their financial resources in the long run.

In this regard, we cannot address health care projects in the countries of the region over the past ten years without mentioning the evolution in real estate and tourism sectors.  Commenting on this aspect, Al Mazaya Holding’s weekly real estate report points out that the nature and objectives of real estate projects that targeted foreign investments have been developed, taking into account ways to increase their ability to compete in the global tourism market. This development has seen an increase in healthcare projects, which have become attractive investments from both the public and the private sectors.

It is worth mentioning that the accelerating development of infrastructure projects in many countries that has been reported is a key factor in their relative success or failure in general terms, as well as with regards to the projects related to tourism and health care in particular. It is important to note here that health care projects in the countries of the region have enjoyed significant successes, but there are still a great deal of obstacles and challenges facing them – some of these projects have succeeded in providing services at the local level, while others have succeeded in developing their capabilities to offer competitive services on a global scale, and have also successfully attracted investments.Other countries are still seeking to meet the domestic demand within the framework of development plans, which are often influenced by local and global financial and economic developments.

Al Mazaya’s report stressed the importance of health care projects that have been completed and those which are under construction in the countries – these fall into the category of creating investment and job opportunities for many of the economic sectors, as the health services sector is overlapping and intertwining with other sectors.These investments can be classified under the plans and projects of the region’s countries, which focus on investments that attract foreign investments, as well as scientific and technical efficiencies. Here it is relevant to stress the importance of developing services provided at the local and regional level, which in providing a suitable alternative in the countries of the region will reduce the cost of treatment abroad.

Al Mazaya’s report asserts that the projects and investments in this sector are still vital and viable at the financial and economic level.  In addition, they offer many positive aspects for the support of the rest of the sectors activities, as well as maintaining a minimum of economic activity needed by the countries of the region in light of the reported decline of spending and of the offered projects both quantitatively and qualitatively. Consequently, we can say that the successes achieved so far can contribute to creating more qualitative projects that ensure the sector’s continuity, growth, contribution to the development of the sources of income and granting of the economies of countries in the region more resistance to financial and economic pressures.

Al Mazaya’s report states that the health care projects are a priority at the moment, which supports the significance of introducing more projects that provide greater specialization and quality of services. This comes at a time when the world is going through a trend towards a healthier lifestyle. Thus, the viability of health projects of all kinds is improving – a fact which serves to motivate investment in these kinds of projects. The increase in demand has contributed to the expansion of services and investment opportunities. Activities like jogging are considered a serious opportunity to invest in the development of specific projects, for example: the preparation of athletes participating in races, increasing the number of gyms, and investment in sports equipment. In addition, according Al Mazaya’s report, the prevalence of large sporting events and their associated advertising opportunities and related economic projects offer assurances that the health care sector will be constantly developing. It also discusses how the coming years will see more demand for health services, with a trend towards increased fitness and sporting activities to ward off diseases and obesity.

Al Mazaya’s report states that the UAE’s experience in this field is advanced and capable of application in various countries in the region, where the successes achieved depended on the overall development of key economic sectors, as well as the application of laws and regulations which attract and encourage investment. In addition, the economic diversity of the state contributed to the development of the health care sector. At present, all economic sectors are able to support the growth and sustainability of the sector, coming as it does at a time when the growth expectations by 2020 are likely to exceed the healthcare market volume in the country by more than 71 billion dirhams – right now, the UAE accounts for 26% of the total expenditure of GCC governments on health care. The UAE is one of the first countries in the region to encourage investment in medical tourism and facilitating the entry of patients to the state.

It is noteworthy that by the year 2021, the health sector in the state will have fulfilled all international standards and will be able to attract large numbers of tourists to be cured. 40 billion dirhams were spent on the health sector in the state in 2015 and the therapeutic tourism sector growth rates hit 15%. Following on from that, we can surmise that the UAE will be the capital of medical tourism in the next few years, accounting for the largest share of the coming therapeutic tourism to the Middle East. This continuous development of the sector services will solve a lot of problems, foremost of which is the reduction of the cost of treatment abroad on the one hand and raising the number of foreign tourists coming for treatment on the other hand.

Al Mazaya’s report stresses the importance of maintaining the progress and development of the services provided by the health sector in the region’s countries. This is due to the high demand for health services, as well at the importance of maintaining the competitiveness and ability to attract investment and beneficiaries of the advanced medical services. The report also states that the sector’s stakeholders should reduce the costs of treatment and health services by launching more projects and expanding and diversifying their range of services. In addition, the report states that the private sector must be given more freedom to carry out projects in order to prevent them being affected by the recorded decrease in the budgets of Gulf governments due to lower oil revenues – this will ensure the continued establishment of health centers and construction of hospitals and clinics, as well as the development of the current infrastructure of the sector.

Al Mazaya’s report asserts that all of the indicators displayed by the health care sector point to an increase in spending on health care, high costs, and that the countries of the region’s health services still needs to overcome a number of challenges to raise the level of health services provided, which is still lower than the levels specified by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. In addition, there is a lot of work needed to increase health care efficiency in the region and overcome the challenges of financing that prevent a takeover of the private sector on advanced shares. The report also guarantees that the health care sector is still enjoying a lot of good investment opportunities, which hardly exist in other major economic sectors.

Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Real Estate Report

Amidst International and Regional Cooperation

Real Estate Markets’ Resistance to Money Laundering Operations Depends on Foreign Investment Laws

Real estate markets at times undergo a state of continued or sustained high prices, even in cases of recession and decline in the value and volume of real estate sales. It also becomes commonplace for the value of real estate transactions to rise to unprecedented levels, while the funding of channels and developers faces further challenges and difficulties. Moreover, the exceptional attractiveness of real estate projects and products and safe havens may have a role in continued demand for both turnkey and under-construction products, thus raising the liquidity values.

Furthermore, money laundering operations also have a considerable role in raising the sector’s liquidity. The growing number of projects and the continuous rise in prices helps raise liquidity values in the real estate market—a matter which mostly carries erroneous performance indicators that create real estate bubbles detrimental to the real estate market when these funds begin to leave the invested places. Therefore, money laundering operations are considered amongst the most serious matters facing the real estate market in the world, given the degree to which the market differs from other sectors in terms of its importance.

Al Mazaya Holding’s weekly real estate report points out that only crises are able to reveal the truth of what is occurring in real estate markets. In this context, money laundering operations often target the real estate sector in most countries all over the world, and focuses particularly on the luxury market and a distinct category of real estate characterised by high investment values as well as liquidation, with an emphasis on sales and purchase transactions that are carried out by foreign companies—a matter which grants them further legitimacy.

Al Mazaya’s report points out that the British real estate market is considered one of the most active real estate markets in terms of closing deals that stem from unknown sources, which are most likely a result of money laundering. This comes at time when real estate prices are at an all-time high and there is a noticeable rise in the prevailing liquidity values, as well as a high number of foreign companies that own luxury real estate in London in particular. Governing laws and legislation play a role in the control of these operations as well as the reduction of their destructive impact on the real estate market and domestic economy in all applicable countries.

Uncovering these transactions and operations in all markets around the world is quite simple, as is pursuing them and determining where they are most prevalent, should laws and legislation governing foreign investments become available. This in turn leads us to believe that the markets which adopt investment laws open to foreign investment will be more vulnerable to the trends and goals of the owners of these funds, in spite of all the negative aspects and risks surrounding real estate markets targeted by this liquidity. Furthermore, these operations are seeking to form real estate markets and also contribute to raising prices several times over, reaching an unparalleled level that makes it no longer possible for the middle class to afford decent housing. Additionally, the flow of these funds into the housing market will have unlimited consequences, and the unjustified continued growing prices of real estate will be one of the most direct and negative impacts. Al Mazaya’s report affirms that money laundering operations mainly target the economies of developed countries which enjoy internationally influential financial positions and have advanced accounting and legal services; however this attractiveness collides with the possibility that a successful economy can be turned into a home of corruption and crime.

Al Mazaya’s report points out that real estate markets in the region are still safe from the direct impact of money laundering operations, and maintains that some of the region’s markets have been adversely influenced by such operations during the pre-global financial crisis period. Moreover, the demand trends adopted by the end user and reported diversification on sales and real estate transactions in the majority of the region’s markets, besides the gradual cutback reported by the prices of real estate units for nearly two years and the discipline reflected by real estate exhibitions, are indicators which substantiate that real estate markets in the region have a high transparency level and are free from the effects of money laundering. On the other hand, the continued rise in the price of land and turnkey real estate products in a number of the region’s markets is attributable to internal factors, the foremost of which is the low number of real estate products in high-demand locations, the lack of suitable land for the establishment of real estate projects, and the reported large-scale speculation over the past period, which came as a result of high domestic liquidity in the possession of individuals and companies seeking rapid investments and large returns.

This report looks forward to more transparency, laws and regulations that govern the real estate market’s performance in the region, particularly during the current and upcoming periods, amidst an increase in the indicators of liquidity scarcity and forecasts; this indicates a decline in the banking sector’s desire to pump more liquidity at the level of projects and direct retail financing according to the level of risks that is reported and expected from time to time. It is relevant here to point out that the continued cutback in capital markets and the decline in investment opportunities both quantitatively and qualitatively would encourage money laundering transactions to spread through and penetrate the pillars of local economies and their major sectors, especially the real estate sector and capital markets.

Al Mazaya’s report is looking forward to further coordination and cooperation among all relevant official parties for raising the efficiency of tracking suspicious transactions entering the economy and its influential sectors. Meanwhile, investment in the majority of the region’s countries depends mainly on real investments aiming to achieve intermediate and long-term development plans and objectives, the success and failure of which are based on the level of governmental support and continuation in development projects; the region’s markets therefore can’t bear new crises and unforeseen sharp price cutbacks. In this context, Al Mazaya’s report points out that any delay in regulating the profession of real estate brokers, offices, agencies and real estate companies is expected to keep the door wide open for closing transactions based on suspicious sources of funds, and these issues are not separate from applicable measures that help maintain the real estate market’s discipline and eliminate deviations wherever they may be. Al Mazaya’s report adds that imposing more oversight and control over transactions produced by  real estate exhibitions also falls within the procedures of the market discipline and raising efficiency and transparency, which would lead to raising the investment attractiveness of the market for capital and real investments, and would protect the assets and interests of individuals and companies, be they, in the long run, end users or investors.

The report further asserts that precautionary measures at the local level may be beneficial and play a key role, yet they are not adequate and can’t be depended on if not accompanied by an international consensus to take strict measures to prevent the flow of suspicious funds into all major sectors, including real estate. It seems that many of the region’s countries have become more prepared to address this phenomenon through further relevant laws and through adopting more market-controlled laws and regulations. In conclusion, minimising the impact of money laundering on the real estate sector and other major sectors primarily requires further cooperation among the region’s markets, and secondarily among the world’s markets in general.

Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Real Estate Report:

The Real Estate Sector Successfully Overcomes Pressures and Drawbacks From the First Half of 2016

Estimates on economic performance of the majority of region’s countries for the current year have ranged from continuation of recession to difficult recovery, supported by expectations of further cutbacks in oil prices and the downward trend of government spending on development projects. These factors are in addition to the expectations of continued political tensions at the regional level, impacts related to finance activities, and supply and demand indicators.

Remarkably, major economic sectors – particularly within the real estate sector – revealed adaptability to market conditions and also showed further indicators of resistance to recession. Hence, we can say that the overall performance of economic sectors is good when compared to the size of surrounding pressures and risks, irrespective of their regional or global sources.

Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Real Estate Report points out that the overall performance of the real estate market during the first half of current year was good and occasionally reflected several strength indicators, flexibility and solidity. Moreover, there was a marked dissimilarity in real estate markets’ ability to deal with the reported economic and financial circumstances. In this context, it’s worth mentioning that real estate development markets, at the project level, have proceeded uninterruptedly at a good pace, in spite of the reported slowdown and late payment. The dues of real estate developers are accruing as a result of a reported state of confusion and chaos of governmental cash flow movement on a regional level, indicating cutbacks in liquidity available for investment in major sectors.

On the other hand, trends of interest rates have not had a negative impact on the real estate sector or supply and demand forces during the first half of the current year. Their impact has remained somewhat neutral, as bank interest rates have not witnessed considerable rises in finance prices. Moreover, the banking sector has maintained its number of grants to finance real estate products, a matter which has helped mitigate the severity of expected recession and decline.

Al Mazaya’s Report tackled the performance of the UAE’s real estate market during the first half of current year, which witnessed further activity, flexibility and correction of prices that prevailed this past year. The report asserted that, in this regard, the ultimate goal of real estate markets in the UAE and neighboring markets is to maintain their gains, avoid sharp price cutbacks, and maintain their investment attractiveness at the internal and external level. It is relevant here to point out that real estate activity pace has witnessed relative declines in growth rates of commercial real estate market, in addition to a decline in the number of commercial projects under construction. This comes amidst fluctuations and fierce competition witnessed by the logistic and industrial services sectors, while the hotel sector has been able to maintain its pace of activities due to its diversity, attractiveness and infrastructure development projects.

The housing sector absorbs a considerable share of real estate movement – it has kept its stability during the first half of 2016 and has not reported any sharp declines, with the possibility for the sector to have more attractiveness during the second half of current year, particularly in foreign investments. It is noteworthy that the Emirate of Dubai is looking forward to increasing its global financial and economic shares.

The government of Dubai has also launched Dubai Wholesale City. Moreover, real estate companies are focusing on luxury and middle-class housing projects as well as hotel and retail projects. The first half of current year witnessed the launching of 39 new projects at an investment cost exceeding AED 57 billion. This extended for a period of up to 7 projects, with the private sector absorbing the largest share.

Al Mazaya’s Report states that indicators of the Qatari real estate sector revealed, during the first half of current year, growth at the level of construction and building, in addition to a higher demand for vacant lands given an improvement of local and foreign demand indicators over the coming period, and, on the other hand, prices of villas and apartments kept improving.

It is worth mentioning that the major investments in Qatar have been increasing. Besides the continued completion of infrastructure and large-scale real estate projects – marking further activity and momentum – taking into consideration the importance of the government role in activating productive economic sectors falling within the development plans being currently implemented. Furthermore, the Qatari real estate sector maintained its leading position as the foremost sector, which brings the largest returns to investors, thus representing the most competitive sector to oil and gas. Furthermore, the activity pace in the real estate market during the same period has constituted a basis for classifying investment in the real estate sector among the safe investments at the level of domestic and foreign investment, backed also by high returns, liquidity, and stability at the intermediate and long-term. Given the varying investment opportunities provided by the sector, which enable high return rates, real estate activities are considered most profitable and represents one of the most liquid markets.

 

Al Mazaya’s Report adds that the Saudi real estate sector’s performance was beyond expectation during the first half of current year, with decline indicators dominating the prevailing prices, while sale and purchase transactions witnessing a state of recession. This is a direct result of the tax imposition on white lands, a matter which had a negative impact on the supply and demand forces and which are still in favor of the supply, with a predominant state of awaiting and caution in the real estate market in respect of all decisions for purchase of ready real estate by buyers who abstain from buying any property over this period until the situation becomes clearer. In addition, prevailing land prices during the first half will be positively affected by the government trends for preventing the encroachments and recovering the lands located on the outskirts of major cities, a mater which means an increase in the land supply to be redistributed to beneficiaries. It should be noted that prices of housing lands located on the outskirts of cities marked a decline up to 40% at some locations, while the decline within cities marked up to 20%.

It is worth mentioning that the Saudi real estate sector was not negatively affected by the fall in oil prices up to the end of the first half of 2016, while the prevailing political tensions have not brought about any pressure on the sector’s activity, given the nature of the demand for real estate in the Kingdom, the source of which are predominantly Saudi nationals.

Regarding real estate market liquidity for the region’s countries during the first half of 2016, Al Mazaya’s report points out that the market has kept good liquidity, but is still beyond expectations and below the corresponding levels reported during the same period of past years. This is in addition to marking increases in fluctuations from time to time. Remarkably, values of investment liquidity in general are affected by government trends as well as investment decisions of the private sector, the banking sector’s plans and trends.

It is noteworthy that the value of transactions made in Dubai during the first five months of current year marked AED 24 billion, while total value of mortgage marked more than AED 27 billion. The Saudi real estate market recorded an increase in the value of transactions up to the end of the first half, amounting to SAR 229 billion, of which the housing sector accounted for SAR 137 billion, and the commercial sector accounted for over SAR 91 billion. On the other hand, the reported values of real estate transactions in the Qatari real estate market reported a decline by 56% during the first quarter of 2016, as compared to the same period of the past year, which focused on villa compounds and vacant lands.

Al Mazaya’s report implied that the pace of financial and economic activities faces further pressures and challenges with cash flow, liquidity values, and the level of waiting and caution which push towards further fluctuation in performance indicators of the major economic indicators. On the other hand, real estate has revealed good performance indicators during the first half of 2016, which reflects that the sector was able to maintain a good pace despite the pessimistic expectations that were prevailing at the end of 2015.

The report reiterates that the real estate sector is still negatively affected by the decline in oil prices as well as political tensions, while the strong signs from the banking sector, continued lending transactions and price retracement levels from the real estate sector have helped maintain the attractiveness and stability of the UAE in the first half of 2016.

Al Mazaya: Steadfastness and tenacity of the British real estate sector to be tested

 

British Investments abroad should remain unaffected from any negative impacts that may occur due to “Brexit”

The nature and circumstances of real estate markets differ from country to country and are a result of positive or negative impacts on the real estate sector, which are typically defined by supply and demand activities during times of boom and recession. At this time, it is fair to say that major economic sectors of all world countries are still suffering from financial and economic pressures, with no country yet able to note anything resembling a full recovery, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Its impact and effects have remained constant up to the present day and governments of all countries are currently only providing temporary solutions to long-term challenges. All of which points to a need for a restructuring of the international economic system as a whole.

It is worth mentioning that, in 2016, as well as in the coming few years, we will witness further financial and economic alliances and divisions; merger and acquisitions will be an increasingly common activity of companies and organisations worldwide, while breakups and divisions may well be experienced by various countries. With local economic sectors and the health of the global economy at stake, tests of a different type will emerge and the real estate sector is expected to be at the forefront of industries affected by such developments. This is because development and expansion phases, including investments that transcend borders, are affected by recession across all fields and sectors in the global economy.

 

Al Mazaya Holding’s weekly report emphasises the importance of foreign investment for the British economy with energy, real estate and infrastructure projects currently contributing to over 65,000 jobs. The volume of foreign investment into the UK market, at the end of 2015, is estimated to be more than GBP975 billion; European countries saw a share of around GBP566 billion, for the same period.

Al Mazaya’s report points out that the UK economy provides several investment opportunities that are attractive to foreign investors, especially in regard to high-quality infrastructure developments. These include: roads, railways, and power projects. Each are considered highly attractive investments that will push up the growth and development indicators for the British economy, as well as help improve the income of both individuals and the larger communities these projects serve. In this respect, it is noteworthy that foreign investment in the British economy has accelerated over the past few years, given the economy’s attractiveness and investment reputation abroad, both of which are considered a motive for growth and the provision of jobs. It is worth mentioning here that the British real estate sector, over the last few years, was able to attract Gulf investments to the tune of billions of dollars – given its stability, growth and rewarding return rates.

Al Mazaya’s Weekly Report has highlighted the fact that British investments abroad will be unaffected by any negative impacts of Britain’s referendum result calling for a withdrawal from the European Union (EU). These investments, in particular, form safe shelters during the impending transition period, while owners of these investments will look to the positive side of the investment equation, as their investments will maintain their values and maximise returns in relation to the supply and demand forces at work in investment markets abroad.

British investment in the real estate sector, in Dubai, currently amounts to AED62 billion, per year, ranking them the fourth biggest investor, by nationality, in Dubai’s real estate market. UK investments have largely focused on land, buildings and housing units. On the other hand, the UAE’s share in total real estate allocated to lease in the British market is worth more than 20 per cent, at the end of 2015, and reached these levels given the high return rates and strong economic growth rates of the market. Infrastructure development and the reported growth in the value of invested assets reached seven per cent, in the major cities.

Al Mazaya’s report further reveals that Saudi Arabian investments in the British economy are considerable and are divided into several sectors and investment opportunities, including: shares, bonds, and property. Total investments, per year, are estimated to be worth about USD18 billion. These investments are likely to be affected as a result of the Brexit decision, especially as all indicators imply that the UK’s exit from the EU will result in the British economy incurring losses and a decline in its investment attraction, amidst expectations for its entry into a state of recession in the short and intermediate term.

The Brexit decision is expected to affect investor trust in the UK market and increase fluctuations in capital markets whilst also putting pressure on banking activity, in the UK. Real estate sectors and the activity of foreign companies are also expected to bear the impact of the expected fluctuations and potentially negative impacts.

Saudi Arabian investments in shares, treasury bonds and real estate could be at the core of the crisis and are among those investments that will be highly affected by the Brexit decision. Primarily, this would deprive them of subsidies currently provided by the EU, a matter that would push the UK economy into further recession – at a time when the UK is a major commercial partner with Saudi Arabia. Exports to the latter, at the end of 2015, were around USD7.8 billion in value, while Saudi exports to the UK exceeded USD2.6 billion.

Al Mazaya’s report further adds that the Brexit decision could affect Gulf and global investments into Britain, as well as investments in many European countries which have direct, large-scale financial and economic relationships with the British economy – particularly the Netherlands, Belgium, France and Italy. Moreover, all the IMF expectations are negative in respect of a Brexit. With expectations for the British economy to enter a state of slowdown, the UK is expected to suffer an immediate downturn in the coming year, thereby having a negative impact on Britain’s economic partners.

It is worth mentioning that the real estate sector has held the most negative expectations to this new political reality, with observers expecting that the real estate market in Britain will not be able to avoid a fall in its prices up to the end of this year. Increasingly, estimates suggest that the real estate market will undergo a process of tangible price corrections, which had increased over the last quarter as a result of low supply.

In this context, it is worth mentioning that the financial and tax restrictions on the purchase of “houses-to-let” will force several investors out of the real estate market, thus inducing more adjustments on the prevailing prices. Expected increases in interest rates will also mean higher costs on mortgage loans, thereby creating falling demand.

Al Mazaya’s report has also assessed Qatari investments in the British economy, which are distributed over several sectors. Foremost of which is the real estate sector, in particular: hotels, residential and commercial towers, the Olympic villages, bank and stock exchange shares, as well as investments in the energy sector. These investments are estimated at USD44 billion, although the value of Qatari investments is likely to still increase given the absence of comprehensive data.

Qatar is considered among the largest investors in the British economy, particularly in luxury real estate, which is a distinguishing factor of Qatari investments in Britain. These substantial investments were mainly motivated by the characteristics of the British economy as a safe investment haven with the ability to withstand financial crises faced by the global economy. That said: Anglo-Qatari relations are stable in almost all area and contracts between the two sides in relation to oil and gas sectors are long-term. Therefore, a Brexit decision will not have considerable effect on bi-lateral and economic relations between the two countries, on the whole.

Al Mazaya’s report also emphasised the fact that British investments abroad, whether in the fields of real estate, industry or hotels, would be safe and their growth and value will continue to increase, as they are closely associated with the developments of the economies of the host countries. A possible positive impact of the Brexit decision is the expectation of an increase in out-bound tourism by British nationals, over the coming short period. On the other hand, British investments in Britain, regardless of their nature and concentration, will go through a trial in terms of value, attractiveness, return rates and the possibility of investor withdrawals looking to cut ties with the least losses.

Al Mazaya’s report has ruled out the possibility that foreign real estate investments may undergo liquidation over the coming period, as a direct reaction to the Brexit decision, and expectations are that the appetite for investment will remain strong. The core factor in this equation is that the volume of investments pumped into the British economy will go through a state of confusion over the coming period, until the UK enters into new deals with the EU countries and a clear vision for a post-EU status is identified. The real estate sector, just like other industry verticals, will go through a state of stagnancy due to an unwillingness of stakeholders to be vulnerable to risks through sales or purchases. It is worth mentioning, however, that prices of real estate prior to the Brexit decision were considered high and the inclination to adjustment was expected – regardless of the decision taken by the UK electorate.

The drop in oil revenues has restructured and reclassified real estate sectors and their proportionate Real Estate Sector promotes its competitiveness and maximizes its contribution to region countries’ GDP

 

Outside of the oil and gas sectors, real estate activity makes up the strongest component of the economic system for the region’s countries. It also constitutes one of the most influential and overlapping sectors among more than one hundred economic sectors and activities. Moreover, the developments in activity for the real estate sector over the past few years (up to the end of 2014) have played an important role in revitalizing many development and promotion plans for both market and sector. Through this, many economies were able to maintain their economic growth and development – including infrastructure development – as well as being able to compete for large real estate and non-real estate projects.

In addition, the financial pressures caused by the drop in oil revenues for the region’s countries have lead to restructuring and reclassification of the economic sectors with regards to their ability to contribute to the GDP, as well as their ability to make up for the decline in revenues generated from major productive and service sectors. This has been done to ensure the drop in revenue from oil doesn’t adversely affect the pace of financial and economic activity and the activities of retail sectors and other service sectors, etc. The importance of developing the productive and then the financial abilities of real estate activities have become clear, as an elevated real estate activity pace is required to increase the contribution of major sectors to the GDP.

Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Real Estate Report pointed to that reliance on the real estate sector and its associated activities to maximize the sectors’ contribution to GDP in the region’s countries. It is important to note at this point that there have already been successes at this level and, in spite of challenges and constraints that may impede some economies from achieving tangible successes as expected and planned, further successes are expected. It is worth mentioning that the existing economic sectors’ infrastructures are important for the success in developing operational capabilities and revenues, and thus underlie the variations in success rates. Economies with a developed infrastructure as well as a diversified, developed real estate sector with continuous and increasing demand rates will need to overcome the pressures of varying and distinguished supply rates to achieve target growth rates at the level of both the sectors and the local economy. Countries with less developed infrastructures will have to work hard to keep pace with the recent financial and economic aspirations – there will need to be a process of restructuring and redirecting of the productive sectors to reach target levels.

It is noteworthy here that there is an increasing reliance on vibrant economic sectors to maintain economic capabilities and bridge deficits. Al Mazaya’s report also reveals that the activation plans of the industrial, tourist and real estate sectors will have great significance over the coming years. This comes at a time when the real estate sector is ranked second in the list of top dynamic and active sectors, contributing 20% to the UAE’s GDP. The construction and building sector came in third place, followed by the manufacturing industries sector in fourth. It is worth mentioning here that the economic and financial sectors have contributed to the growth of the state’s GDP by 44% over the past five years.

The economic plan to achieve the UAE’s vision 2030 depends heavily on developing private sector capabilities. The financial sector came on top of the highest growth rates achieved by sectors led by private sector. The telecommunication sector came second and real estate activities came third. On the level of added values reflected by private sectors’ activities, the construction sector topped contribution’s level of total production and added values for private sectors. It is noteworthy that the UAE’s private sector activities, led by the real estate sector, contribute with progressive rates to the added value of many sectors.

In addition, Al Mazaya’s report touched on the growth rate of the Bahrain real estate market, which reflected its capacity to achieve additional growth rates of 3.9% by the end of 2015. The construction sector reached an economic growth rate of 6.4% and the hotels and restaurants sector a 7.3% growth rate, while the private sector played a leading role in Bahrain’s 3% economic growth rate in the same period of time. The productive sectors were able to raise their contribution to the GDP, with the construction sector accounting for 7%, while the real estate and commercial activities accounted for 6% overall, which brought many positive indicators. Investment in infrastructure projects is still strong, bringing the total values of projects in the first quarter of this year to USD3.8-billion. These projects are focused mainly on residential development and public services, with the industrial sector witnessing an increase in the number of factories being constructed. Moreover, the liquidity indicators of the kingdom’s financial system are very important to the growth of credit injected into the Bahrain’s economy. This constituted an additional incentive for further activity in both commercial and real estate sectors.

Al Mazaya’s report also highlighted the focus of Saudi Arabia’s National Transformation Plan  to raise the real estate contribution to 10% of GDP – this is a positive outcome for real estate development companies, real estate market, and the end user for the sector’s outputs. It is worthwhile noting here that the challenges faced by the real estate sector, especially the housing sector, are at the heart of the focus of the National Transformation Plan (NTP). The private sector will play a pivotal role in the NTP, as the plan aims to raise the ownership ratio of national citizens to 52% by 2020, compared to its current of 47%. This will be done by overcoming the challenges facing the appropriate housing finance for national citizens, creating appropriate solutions for the use of unused lands, and involving major landlords in the housing development.

The NTP aims to encourage the work of the housing cooperative societies, which will build houses at lower costs compared to market prices, motivate the work of real estate developers and provide finance with the aim of developing housing projects at affordable prices for all groups of the Saudi society. This will be motivated by the fact that the Ministry of Housing’s foremost strategic objective at present is to enable national citizens to get a decent house and create an investor-friendly environment to attract local and foreign investment. Al Mazaya’s report points out that the reported and planned move would maximize the real estate sector’s contribution to the GDP over the coming few years.

It is worth mentioning that the region’s countries have spent substantial amounts of capital developing the real estate sector as well as its outputs and products. The tourism sector has emerged as being one of the most important outputs of the real estate sector, relied upon by the region’s countries for diversifying the income sources and maximizing the contribution rates of real estate, tourism, housing and commercial sectors to the GDP. The rising importance of housing activities are attributed to a fact that their positive effects are long-term, with widespread effects  All indicators confirm that an increase of investments in infrastructure development, establishment of hotels and entertainment facilities for the tourism sector have had a positive outcome, with the industry emerging as one of the most important sources of national income. According to current data, the tourist sector comprises 5 -15% of the GDP, and that total gulf investments allocated to developing the sector would exceed USD 380-billion by 2018.

Al Mazaya’s report reveals that the UAE is planning to become one of the world’s major tourist centers, supported by continued infrastructure development and the launch of more large-scale tourist projects – Saudi Arabia is currently carrying out projects at a cost of up to USD 11.6-billion, in addition to focusing on the development of the railway. It is of relevance here to point out that tourist investment in the Kingdom rose by more than 300% over the past few years.

The Qatari real estate market is following in the same direction – Qatar is planning to spend USD 45-billion developing tourist products and services, while the State of Kuwait is aspiring to develop the business tourism over the coming ten years. This development is dependent on the high rates of internal tourist expenditure, which would contribute to maximizing the sector’s contribution to GDP by more than 6% by 2025.

Al Mazaya’s report asserts that the region’s countries have the fundamentals in place to ensure success, with many opportunities available to maximize the contribution of the private sector’s activities to the GDP. In addition, relying on the real estate sector’s activities, which target investors as well as local, regional and external investments, would have positive effects with regards to improving their rates of contribution to the GDP.

Real estate appraisals offer effective role in maintaining the sector’s integrity

 

Efficiencyof real estate appraisal tools promote investment and raises value of finance

Real estate appraisals have long been one of the most important aspects for identifying the pulse of the region’s market, its long-term stability and for reducing the effect of real estate bubbles and sharp impacts on the sector. This is particularly relevant when assessing existing or in-progress projects.

As the sector continues to grow, the importance of developing the real estate appraisal profession is also increasing, owing to its direct association with the growth of the real estate finance sector. The more accurate and sophisticated the appraisal mechanisms and tools are, the more positively the real estate finance market develops.

It’s worth mentioning that the tendency towards developing real estate market control laws, as well as reducing fluctuations and imposing more related laws, without being accompanied by any developments in the appraisal sector, will bring only more risks, fluctuation and instability. Given that real estate prices resulting from supply and demand forces are a key factor for setting the level of price transparency and fairness, the region’s ability to stand firm amidst boom and recession conditions is resolute; thereby, protecting the interests of stakeholders such as developers, finance channels and the end purchaser.

Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Real Estate Report points out that there is currently an evolution going on in the real estate sector in relation to construction, building techniques and the optimal use of global practices. These are also being accompanied by the application of environmentally friendly building standards in the designs.

The current issue is that real estate appraisal standards and tools have not been developing at the same pace in many real estate markets. Further development of the tools used and references relied upon are still required, taking into consideration the complexities of real estate development, market fluctuations, as well as the cyclical economic pressures experienced by regional and global markets.

The availability of flexible and scalable tools for real estate appraisal purposes would mean the sector could take into account all major and minor indicators in the appraisal process. Al Mazaya’s report asserts that the continuous rise in real estate unit prices, without any real economic justification, is deemed one of the most influential factors on the appraisal process and real asset values. This makes it very difficult to find out the real value of real estate assets.

Relying on former prices to determine the sale value of future transactions is no longer applicable. This is because of continuous price increases being experienced in the short term. As such, real estate appraisal processes must be based on clearer and more specific assessments – made by specialists and professionals in this field.

Al Mazaya’s report also tackles the negative side caused by real estate owners exaggerating the value of their properties, particularly amidst high demand rates. That said, many markets are now witnessing the selling of real estate units through public auctions, with the aim of achieving transparency, clarity, and reasonable market-rate valuations.

Al Mazaya’s Weekly Report is keen to stress that appraisal tools alone will not achieve stability for the real estate market, neither will they be able to reflect supply and demand forces; however, they will contribute to the aborting of many sale transactions, due to an absence of any real reference for stated values or being based on the prevailing economic climate.

Al Mazaya’s report further asserts that leaving the appraisal of real estate values in the hands of property owners is considered to be a controversially random form of appraisal and is not commensuratewith the healthy evolution of the real estate sector as a whole. This could contribute to a sharp decline in real estate prices in markets that go through a state of slowing demand and purchasers’ reluctance and abstention from buying at exaggerated prices.

It is worth mentioning here that sales transactions must be made between a seller, purchaser and financer at most times, thus the process of achieving the highest price required by the seller, the lowest price sought by the purchaser or the fair price targeted by the financier will be among the many tasks of the real estate appraiser.

 

KSA

With regard to the current status of real estate appraisal in the Saudi Arabian real estate market, Al Mazaya’s report says that tendencies towards imposing taxes on undeveloped land, in addition to elements of the economic transformation plan – intended to encourage investment and reinvigorate the real estate market – require the availability of developed real estate sector tools that are capable of keeping up with the market’s developments.

Given the absence of efficient appraisal methods and tools, further challenges in attracting foreign investment remain. This is especially concerning when the availability of a well-developed real estate appraisal sector will be of high importance for the Saudi Arabian market, in order to keep pace with the development in real estate finance regulations.

The importance and role of real estate appraisers are increasing in KSA because of the development in real estate finance and mortgage laws. Real estate finance and housing depend mainly on proper appraisal of available units and, therefore, any manipulation in prices of sellable units would lead to a financial drawback – for all parties. Given the high scope of price fluctuation on land and real estate units in the market, a fair and balanced appraisal system is considered one of the most important factors facing Saudi’s real estate industry.

The positive impact of fair appraisals will reflect well on the pillars of the national economy, the construction and reconstruction movement being witnessed in the Kingdom, along with the associated job creation.

Qatar

Al Mazaya’s report touches upon the follow-up and attention being paid by official entities in Qatar to keep up with developments in the real estate market, while the laws and regulations related to the development of work tools for real estate appraisal are to be given special focus from government agencies and the private sector. This comes as part of the overall process of developing and modernising laws related to the real estate sector, in a manner that safeguards the rights of all stakeholders. The focus, in the Qatari market, tends towards applying the highest standards and global best practices in this field – alongside compliance, quality and sustainability standards.

It is noteworthy that Qatar’s Ministry of Justice is striving to develop real estate appraisal mechanisms and modernising the valuation and appraisal processes currently in use. Most regional markets have experts who are fully familiarised with real estate and its developments, but what the real estate market and the appraisal process are lacking is the scientific knowledge that would compel the market to take the right path away from personal judgments, which bring many risks for the future of real estate and the banking sector.

 

Conclusion

Al Mazaya’s report strongly emphasises the necessity of separating the real estate valuation or appraisal process from the duties of the real estate broker. The real estate appraiser is responsible for determining fair prices of real estate transactions of different types, by following state-of-the-art techniques and relying upon the bestscientific andpractical references. The real estate broker’s role is limited to providing the best conditions to bring together the buyer and seller, in order to close a deal for a pre-agreed commission.

Al Mazaya’s report reaffirms that effective real estate appraisals will provide independent opinion on the market value of real estate assets, depending on accumulated market experiences and reported changes in prices at various locations. It has, therefore, become necessary to adopt technical standards for such measurements. These relate to recognising the classifications of real estate and building laws that are applicable in a given market. Al Mazaya points out that real estate appraisal processes are the basis for determining the estimated value of property prices in cases of mortgage,expropriation or direct purchase deals.

Villa housing projects considered a key driver of real estate activities and demand indicators for UAE real estate

 

Attractive investment opportunities, high returns and growing demand credited with increased activity

 

In this week’s Al Mazaya Weekly Real Estate Report, the focus of discussion will be on how the housing sector, for villas, currently accounts for the lion’s share of the total real estate activity currently being implemented in GGC markets. The reported acceleration of these developments has, therefore, become of considerable importance in raising the overall pace of real estate activity, in the region.

The development of cultural and investment values carried out by housing (villa) projects has also had a direct role in determining the volume of domestic and foreign investment into the region.  These developments have another role in determining the welfare of the regions’ societies, as the region’s markets have taken a lead in terms of attracting wealthy investors and luxury homebuyers. This is largely credited to these types of development projects being much more rare than in other global markets, at this time.

The evidence referenced above leads Al Mazaya to conclude that the housing (villa) sector is an increasingly important factor for keeping prices of all real estate products firm, while also maintaining the pace of real estate activity, the continuing growth of projects, and the flow of foreign investment, which tends to target luxury real estate products – in spite of the current economic pressures and pricing fluctuations of domestic, regional and global markets.

Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Real Estate Report points out that the variety of uses of villas in UAE real estate sector plays an important role in maintaining real estate activity and contributing to increasing rental rises. This is due to the fact that sharing accommodation (and rental costs) within villa units allows the rental demands of landlords to be met, but correspondingly keeps prices too high for individuals to afford the costs associated with renting alone.

Given the distinguished real estate products that the housing sector (for villas) contains, including exceptional sites and unique designs that attract all categories of the target audience, Al Mazaya can confidently say that markets that have a well-developed sector for investment in villas are able to withstand domestic market fluctuations. That is to say, the market can make the most out of exploiting a booming economy and be robust during a recession.

In addition to the above factors, the design flexibility of real estate products, such as villas, plays a considerable role in maintaining the demand indicators in all economic conditions, as the completed villas offer accommodation for both private and commercial investment – with several companies now using ready-made villas as their permanent headquarters.

Al Mazaya’s Weekly Report further suggests that, in the past few years, the UAE market has undergone a state of high demand for real estate products, with villas being the first choice for UAE families, as well as the high-income demographic residing in the country. This has been another factor in sustaining demand for villas – irrespective of the fear that increasing prices are creating a bubble that will eventually burst. Furthermore, the sector’s indicators show a state of high demand for projects currently underway; therefore, the short-term future of maintaining pricing and rental levels in this sector will only be slowed if a shortage in the lands dedicated to villa projects is realised. This has meant that an additional demand for ready-made products available in the market are also being seized due to accelerated competition among investors keen to acquire them for resale, investment or lease. If a scarcity of land for developing such projects is declared then, of course, prices will continue to rise yet further.

It is worth mentioning here that the completion of villa projects is more complicated than their counterpart residential towers projects. In addition to the advanced infrastructure and vast areas of land befitting the nature of these projects, land acquisition, allocation and time is needed to develop them. This means demand can be managed via delays – whether they are market-driven or staggered for release, by the developer.

Al Mazaya’s report also points out that the unique concepts adopted for the development of real estate in the UAE have given the sector further attractiveness and strength over regional competitors. For example, the recently announced floating villas concept – on “The World” artificial island grouping – just off the Dubai coast, constitute a form of development that challenges other developers to keep innovating and maintain a high level of concept creativity.

In Abu Dhabi, the Masdar City project offers a new concept of eco-villas – meeting the growing demand for sustainable housing units, as well as the pressing need for adopting highly innovative and quality designs that use fewer natural resources, as compared to traditional designs. Masdar City symbolises an advanced model for the development of environmentally friendly, waste-free cities, with zero CO2 emissions – around the world. In this context, Saadiyat Beach villas are a shelter for those looking for the dream home, as this project is classified under one of the sustainable urban development projects adopted by the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. Saadiyat Beach villas will also enjoy innovative designs and be available in varying sizes, meeting the needs of homeowners seeking luxurious, contemporary lifestyles.

Al Mazaya’s report states that it is a natural outcome of supply and demand factors that various real estate products will be affected by market conditions. This includes the villa sector where prices are adversely influenced during a recession, low demand and low liquidity.

That said, trends in the UAE market have proven to be otherwise in recent times; therefore, rents remain flexible and adjustable to market forces while sale prices remain above expectations because the demand for villas is high. It has, however, been noted that freehold zones will be more vulnerable to rent fluctuations versus other property developments across the country, given that the decline comes as a result of a state of slowing activity, at the beginning of 2016. In addition to these factors, the cutbacks in villa rents has not exceeded two per cent since the beginning of the current calendar year, while the supply of new modern villa complexes may further pressurize prevailing prices, if demand indicators remain stable.

In conclusion, Al Mazaya’s report asserts that the villa sector has capitalised on the rise of market activity in real estate products, with commercial and tourist efforts in the region’s countries making significant contributions. These developments have created an investment space for real estate developers to expand their investment activities in developing villa projects, with UAE nationals preferring villa projects that fulfill luxury requirements, spaces, gardens, parking lots and guarantee privacy. At this level of demand, real estate developers are increasing the share of villas being developed, whether at the level of freehold projects or other projects dedicated to UAE nationals.

Al Mazaya suggests that the demand for villas in Abu Dhabi is undergoing a continued increase at both external and internal levels, given the advantages provided by villas over apartments. This comes amidst the availability of funding channels at high ratios: a matter that gives the sector further attractiveness, demand, and solidity of villa prices. As a consequence, their investment attractiveness is improving in terms of sales and leasing, whenever prices increase and demand is high.

Al Mazaya’s report further emphasises the importance of diversifying real estate projects in order to minimise severity rates brought on by financial and economic developments in the region’s real estate market. A potential crisis can be identified and brought on by trends that focus on a particular product – if the self-interest of investors and developers is left unguided.

It is worth mentioning that each investment option has its own features and characteristics that distinguish it from others. In a boom economy, economic growth, stability, growing demand, high returns and asset values factors are among the most important criteria on which project preferences are made. Such circumstances place villa projects in the lead as one of the most important options in the real estate investment criteria for quality, ROI and long-term stability of an investment’s asset value.

High margin of investment competition in region’s housing and hotel real estate projects

 

Increasing importance of real estate investment noted – compared to other sectors

Real estate projects of all types and sizes are continuing to be developed in both regional and world markets, with real estate developers and retail project owners revealing that decisions involving investment in housing are driven by demand estimates, population, and return on investment (ROI). Investments in tourism-related projects, however, are dependent on an expected rate of return and recovery periods, taking into consideration local government expenditure plans on infrastructure and overall economic forecasts.

In the main, housing markets are being positively affected by a boom in both indigenous population growth and economic migrants continuing to head into the region. Housing projects are, therefore, proving to be the region’s most stable investment vehicle – in terms of the long-term demand indicators. Overall, fluctuating ROI indicators are generally equal between housing and investment real estate (at the level of ratio and value difference), although there is currently a slightly more favourable leaning towards investment real estate.

In this respect, Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Real Estate Report emphasises the importance of activity in hotel and investment real estate – across all world regions. The report suggests that investment real estate is considered favourable for global investors. This mostly takes the form of cross-border investments from investors seeking long-term opportunities, with hotels considered among the sectors most attractive, especially in the UAE and Qatar. The hotel real estate sector in Dubai and Abu Dhabi is among the most efficient and attractive, with the UAE’s two largest emirates currently accounting for the largest portion of total tourists coming to the region.

Premium projects within the hotel and investment sectors play an important part in achieving the best international ratings, which have a knock-on impact for attracting investors and, thus, maximising investment returns. It is worth mentioning at this point that markets that have the most premium hotel projects tend to attract the best investments and investors, due to consistently providing the highest long-term returns. Taxation and exemption ratios also have an influencing role in guaranteeing the continuation of investment flows and ensuring that investors reap large returns.

Al Mazaya’s report also notes that investment movement and the endeavours of stakeholders in the region’s hotel real estate market are contributing to the development of further real estate products and promotional programmes. The aim being: to attract further foreign investments, and thus enhancing the attraction of other investments. This, in turn, maximises investment values and maintains the value of real estate assets, in the long run. As is commonly known, the hotel real estate sector in the region’s countries is considered one of the best economic sectors and often produces further investment opportunities for Gulf-based and international investors to capitalise on.

Investment competition is increasing among housing and hotel real estate projects, specifically at the regional level. Currently, the market data indicates that investing in the hotel sector is a better option than investing in housing real estate. The average ROI for housing real estate ranges between 10 and 12 per cent, per annum, while ROI in the hospitality sector ranges between 15 and 25 per cent, over a 12-month period. Furthermore, circumstances of an economic boom and recovery will contribute to the maximisation of returns, due to the nature of world-class events coming to the region. These include Expo 2020, Dubai, and the 2022 FIFA World Cup, in Qatar. This is in addition to ongoing tourism projects being carried out by the governments of all GCC countries.

Al Mazaya’s report affirms that housing real estate in the region has brought substantial revenues for its owners over the last quarter and has proved to offer better returns than other investments. Since there has been high demand from the end user, in the years following the aftermath of the global financial crisis, there has also been a direct impact on retaining asset as well as sale values – irrespective of market conditions. On the other hand, the reported increase in the number of foreign visitors to the region’s countries, in addition to the increase in the number of tourists from the region to foreign countries, has already contributed – and will continue to contribute – to the evolution of the hotel, tourism and housing real estate sectors around the globe.

Available data indicates that the rise in the number of tourists coming to the region over the past few years is reflected in the volume of investment seen in the hospitality sector. The figures also bear witness to the level of feasibility and attraction for investors. Ultimately, the housing sector, as well as projects relating to commercial activities, will also benefit.

Al Mazaya’s report also maintains that the attractiveness of housing real estate has expanded – moving from the local to regional level, and more recently to global markets. It is now ranked first among the objectives of individual and corporate investors from the region’s countries, following on from trends in the British and Turkish real estate markets. It is, therefore, clearly evident that investors will also turn their attention towards other promising markets, with the Polish market constituting one of the best real estate markets for regional investors. This is due to the North-Eastern European country’s booming economy, easy businesses practices, a real estate market boom, and the execution of supporting infrastructure projects, across its major cities.

Foreign investor ownership and the purchase of real estate, in Poland, are also being welcomed and there is also a market for luxury housing units. A luxury real estate investment constitutes a rewarding opportunity, promising high returns and short-term rather than long-term gains. It is also worth mentioning that the attractiveness of housing in the Polish real estate market is on the increase, in comparison to the established luxury markets in major cities like London, Berlin and Paris.

One of the most enduring facts, during a period of development and change, is that the region’s countries are among those continuing to invest abroad. They spend substantial amounts on the execution and development of infrastructure projects, which helps maximise the contribution of non-oil sectors to their annual GDP. As a consequence, it also raises their countries’ competitiveness at the global level.

Projects which are expected to contribute to promoting investment in the region’s financial, real estate and commercial sectors include: the Riyadh Metro project, at a cost of up to USD 40 billion, is considered to be one of the world’s largest projects currently underway; the Doha Metro project, at a total cost of QAR 130 billion; and Dubai’s Mall of the World, which is expected to be the world’s largest mall, at a total cost of USD 6.8 billion.

Al Mazaya’s report asserts that the success of the housing real estate sector is largely dependent upon the success of the investment, tourism and commercial sectors; however, at this time there appears to be no particular sector leading the movement of real estate activity. On the flip side, any decline in the pace of activity will equally affect all real estate products – without exception; so, if other sectors lose, there will be no winner. On the other hand, the success of the tourism and hotel sectors will rely on the movement of the housing sector and its sales, leasing and investment activity. They are also dependent on the pace of financial and economic activity in each GCC country. Therefore, it is seen as a must to attract more money into furthering housing and investment real estate projects of high economic feasibility. The success of which will depend on performance indicators of other sectors and economic activities at the local, regional and global level.

Integration of environmental, social benefits and aesthetic values into real estate projects is driving demand and supports stable pricing structures

With trends in the GCC region’s population set to continue upwards in the foreseeable future, demand for the construction of new housing and new cities remains strong, in the short to medium-term. As a result, supporting services relating to infrastructure, commercial and industrial projects continue to offer positive indicators for growth. Despite an overall economic recession being felt in most of the region’s markets, GCC countries have maintained an ability to promote and attract foreign investment, based on these demand factors.

The rapid pace of construction and the building of new cities, in the region, do raise questions about the level of impact this will have on the environment. Of course, a balance has to be struck between sustainable environmental requirements, and providing adequate housing to compensate for population growth.

In this respect, Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Real Estate Report points out that maintaining natural habitats, in the face of urban growth to match population trends, is a major challenge. This is also a problem for countries that have an abundance of natural greenery and rainfall; however, these challenges are doubled when we talk about cities constructed in arid, desert climates.

While the GCC region remains a popular destination for high volumes of real estate investment, conforming to global standards on the environmentally sustainable construction of new urban developments continues to present challenges.

Al Mazaya’s Report can reveal that urban design and planning are among the key factors that attract investors to a real estate market and its domestic infrastructural developments. Planning, research and study are the fundamental building blocks for any large-scale development; however, governments, end-users and investors are increasingly demanding that projects offer long-term sustainability solutions, energy efficiency, and environmentally friendly architecture and landscaping.

Such demands have, historically, meant higher costs to the developer; however, increasingly, it has become possible to capitalise on the advances in the development of both sustainable and recyclable substances used for construction. Materials and designs more suited to hot weather, energy efficiency, and offer reduced impact on the immediate environment are now just as important to homeowners as aesthetically attractive living spaces.

Al Mazaya’s Report further points out that while urban areas are expected to grow in number – worldwide – over the next twenty years, the drive to construct “green cities” is now very much on the agenda of many governments. Allocating areas for gardens and urban landscaping can make cities less contaminated by pollution and help protect local habitats and wildlife. Such measures are of significant importance in the likes of China and India, where cities are expected to grow at a rapid rate throughout the 21st century.

The report also indicated that pressures and challenges facing environmentally sustainable developments are set against the forecast that 4.9 billion people will be living in cities and urban areas, by 2030. This means that urban areas will expand by no less than 150 per cent, over the same period. This presents a major challenge to maintaining the natural environment, particularly in the extremely large cities, which continue to attract migrating populations. Moderately sized, smaller cities do have better opportunities to manage this trend.

To this end, Al Mazaya’s Report states that while problems exist in certain large cities, developing new and sustainable cities of the future is a concept that is being embraced by GCC countries. This can be seen and recognised in a variety of new projects and cities being developed in the region.

 

Health & Wealth benefits

In addition to preserving the natural habitat, “green spacing” within and outside cities helps to prevent dust, reduce contamination from pollution and absorb CO2 emissions – all of which offer positive contributions to residents as well as the planet’s health. Of course, green spaces naturally give a city a more aesthetic value, but sustainable and smart cities are not just “nice ideas to have”. By offering significant environmental, energy, social and health benefits, it will make them some of the most sought after places to live.

According to Al Mazaya’s Report, green spaces have a direct relationship on the attractiveness of real estate projects. Health and environmental considerations have become key features and priorities for consumers of many types of housing units. Expanding the green space around buildings has become an environmental and social requirement that helps reduce water and air contamination as well as having some cooling effects on high temperatures.

Real estate market indicators, around the world, point out that pricing is directly related to green spaces; real estate prices go up whenever nearby landscaping and parks undergo expansion and development. It is worth mentioning that studies show that residents of cities with a higher ratio of green spaces enjoy a better quality of life.

Today, over 50 per cent of the world’s population lives in urban areas, a matter which reflects positively on efforts to augment the use of landscaping in the planning and execution of cities. It has also been noted that end users increasingly realise the long-term importance of sustainable real estate and environmentally friendly construction practices. This, in turn, is affecting purchasing and re-sale priorities.

 

UAE

Al Mazaya’s Report has also identified that considerable development on the concept and content of the expansion of green spaces, in the UAE, has coincided with the rapid urban expansion witnessed across the country, since the turn of the century.

Recent data shows that green spaces, in the Emirate of Dubai, expanded by more than 35 per cent, in 2015. While aesthetic factors are a consideration, expanding the green areas are part of the city’s strategic concept and series of objectives, in respect to environmental considerations. These recent additions have increased the share of green spaces to over 13 square metres, per capita.

In the emirate of Abu Dhabi, around 6,600 hectares of greenery was added over the last 12 months. Official bodies are now adhering to global standards and practices, with modern technologies also being deployed to assist in areas such as climate conditioning and the rationing of water. Around 64 future projects, including entertainment parks and gardens, will be developed over the next few years.

 

Qatar

Al Mazaya’s Report also points to the efforts in Qatar, where integration of green spaces within its urban development is currently being implemented. These efforts are supported by a planned agricultural strategy being rolled out across the country. One of the key stated aims is to combat the high summer temperatures experienced in Qatar, in addition to providing more attractive real estate projects, offering adjoining public parks and gardens, which can add tangible value to property prices, compared to other locations.

 

Conclusion

In spite of the current challenges facing regional economies, the provision, allocation and recycling of water is considered to be the backbone for the success of green space expansion strategies – both within and outside the cities.

In addition to capitalising on foreign expertise and technologies, GCC countries are in need of more forestation. While the environmental advantages are clear, these types of initiatives will also help enhance the psychological and physical health of society. In relation to climate conditioning and moderating the effects of the weather – especially in summer – forestation will contribute to lowering the region’s extremely high temperatures.

Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha Markets are most flexible in the face of market fluctuations

 

Al Mazaya Report: Gradual correction of real estate prices reflects market flexibility and fair pricing

Real estate market trends in the region’s countries have revealed that not every price rise is a positive indicator and not every reduction is negative. The economic cycles of the region’s economies are directly linked to what is going on within the global economic system and, therefore, they do not present any unique challenges. While the fiscal and economic cycle has undoubtedly become shorter and often does not exceed six years, the situation must become part of an accepted series of regular trends – between growth and recession.

Rental and purchase prices are considered among the most important measurements for fiscal and economic cycles in the region’s real estate market. This is particularly the case in economies of countries that are open to foreign investment and, therefore, they must increasingly anticipate these cycles within the core part of their middle to long-term plans.

 

UAE

By tracking the region’s markets, it has become noticeable that the UAE real estate market now enjoys high flexibility towards the supply and demand cycles. The Emirati market has become capable of reflecting the demand indicators on the offered real estate products in a more efficient way than neighbouring countries, in spite of some challenges still being in place. The key challenges are the price reduction indicators, which are often associated with economic and financial pressures that affect the pace of economic activity as a whole. Therefore, a decline in demand rates in terms of sales and leasings means more risks and fluctuations for both direct and indirect investment.

In this context, Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Real Estate Report points out that the UAE real estate market has succeeded in evading predicted real estate bubbles ever since the global financial crisis. From 2012 up to the end of 2014, the UAE has also succeeded in avoiding a collapse in prices, despite the recession of the past couple of years. Due to steady demand indicators from the end user, in addition to an improvement in the attractiveness of real estate products and prices – across all categories – the UAE has witnessed a consistent level of demand, at healthy supply rates.

The state of correction reported in the UAE real estate market has evidently proven the authenticity of the reports and indicators, which expected the market to undergo a state of gradual decline in pricing. This carries several positive aspects for investors, the real estate market and the local economy, given that investments have increased in terms of quality and feasibility.

An improvement in the investor’s ability to determine the best investment opportunities at the right levels of risk, return and market resilience, means the UAE market remains an attraction proposition – both locally and externally. These factors have been collectively reflected in the country’s economic performance and continuation of development projects, in spite of the prevailing financial and economic pressures at the regional and global level.

Ostensibly, the prevailing prices are still appropriate for both real estate developers and owners, with the rises reported in the recovery period being high – reaching pre-2008 levels. Therefore, any market corrections will not render these real estate units unfeasible and, importantly, will not cause owners and developers to sustain losses.

Al Mazaya’s Report further points out that real estate investment is a long-term game and so market exposure to fluctuations and price disparities is expected. The fact that the market’s stakeholders are accustomed to market price fluctuations means they often set out a range of positive and negative outcomes – before initiating a real estate investment.

Irrespective of the severity of fluctuations and their length of time; active markets like Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha, will be able to overcome economic fluctuations and return to their previous levels following each recession. This makes them an attractive investment in the long run. Real estate markets in the region are starting to strike a balance between supply and demand – a situation that presents buyers with fairer prices and contributes to further investment.

It is worth mentioning that real estate prices in Dubai marked a recession ratio of 12 per cent, over the past year, while market indicators showed that rental prices will undergo a decline of 10 per cent, with real estate prices set to decline by five per cent, during the current year.

 

Qatar

Al Mazaya’s Report considers it highly probable that luxury real estate in Qatar and neighbouring real estate markets will see a further decline in price levels. This is based on the assumption that luxury real estate products, particularly villas, are largely affected by the developments in oil markets as well as the package of amendments currently being introduced to spending tools and mechanisms, at both the government and private sector level.

Real estate indicators point out that rentals of offices and housing apartments are undergoing a state of anticipation, which is reflected in indicators showing a high supply of villas and a decline in demand. This is not unexpected, in the face of government and private sector expenditure cuts, due to falling oil and gas prices, a recession in economic activity, and job cuts.

Al Mazaya’s Report adds that real estate owners are holding fast to the prevailing rental rates – rejecting prices being dictated by supply and demand forces – which has had a direct impact in increasing the fallback rates in rentals, which ranged between five and 10 per cent, over last year’s figures.

It is noteworthy that sales in Qatar’s residential real estate market are heading for a decline. This is a consequence of the reluctance of investors to offer new projects while prices of undeveloped lands have seen a marked decrease of 15 per cent, in several locations in Doha. In this regard, real estate prices and rentals have marked record rises over the past few years and the current correction will be principally be more beneficial to the market and end user.

 

KSA

Al Mazaya’s Report points out that trends in the KSA real estate market are not independent from internal and external developments or supply and demand forces. The data in circulation shows a decline in real estate prices by 20–40 per cent, at the end of the first quarter of this year. The government’s application of taxes on land that has been left undeveloped has also led to a decrease in site plans on the outskirts of major cities. Adding to that, registered real estate sales marked a decrease of 20 per cent, compared to the same period last year.

Real estate transactions in April marked a decrease of 52 per cent, on a year-on-year basis, according to statistics released by the Saudi Arabian Ministry of Justice. Housing and commercial building transactions also declined by 52 per cent, while deals in the commercial sector noted a 54 per cent decrease, for the same month in 2015. These reported recessions reveal a state of hesitation in the market’s overall performance. That said, further declines in pricing will be beneficial to the real estate market, following extremely high and unjustified rises in prices over the past few years.     

 

Jordan

Al Mazaya’s Reporthas also confirmed that while Jordan’s real estate market is following a similar path to KSA, the underlying reasons are very different. The official data indicates a decline in real estate sales by four per cent, during the first quarter of this year, compared to Q1 2015. Market indicators imply that the reported recession is mainly attributable to a state of instability in the region, domestic issues related to a decline in investment liquidity, and a lack of balance between supply and demand forces. There is currently an over-supply in the Kingdom.

It is worth mentioning that liquidity in Jordan’s real estate sector is one of the most important factors determining the country’s pace of economic activity. Market indicators currently indicate a decline in market liquidity, which has led to a high rate of defaults on installment payments – a matter that is influencing financiers to put a hold on financing real estate projects. Al Mazaya’s Reportalso adds that forecasts for a further decline in real estate prices are still in place; however, rental prices are expected to maintain their current levels.

 

Conclusion

Al Mazaya’s Report asserts that the gradual decline in real estate prices will, ultimately, be beneficial to the market, over the coming period. However, real estate markets that are noting sharp and accelerating declines will face many challenges in maintaining the value of their assets and investments and will have considerable difficulties attracting more investment, in 2016.

The general trend of reported and expected declines is attributable to a decrease in demand and an increase in supply – not just a rise in supply. Economic conditions of this nature may be pointing to further recession before there is a rebound.

Al Mazaya Report: Attraction of real estate investment in the Sultanate of Oman is increasing

 

Indicators show investment opportunities in low-cost real estate dedicated to young adults and first-time buyers

 

Economic conditions and the prevailing investment climate both have considerable impact on determining the type and number of investment opportunities available, in any given market. The ability to develop the structure and tools to keep abreast of local, regional and global developments gains substantial importance when we talk about attracting foreign investment towards major economic sectors. Given the recent levels of financial and economic uncertainty, investment opportunities require large-scale efforts in due diligence and focus.

In the long run, regional markets with evolved financial and legislative structures will ensure the continuation of activity across all major economic sectors, including real estate. This is because – regionally – the real estate industry remains one of the most important for both the public and private sectors and offers opportunities to offset the negative consequences of oil price declines.

Sultanate of Oman – Real Estate Overview

In this context, Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Real Estate Report points out that the real estate sector, in the Sultanate of Oman, has moved from a phase of development and reclamation of lands, by way of sale and purchase by domestic and GCC investors, to a phase of diversifying its real estate products, in terms of its residential and commercial offerings.

The Sultanate’s real estate market currently provides a large number of investment opportunities, although this currently rests on a package of incentives that help ensure the continuation of momentum from local investors. This is particularly relevant to developing areas like tourism, where the Sultanate is positioned to occupy an increasingly more prominent standing on the global tourism map. Moreover, investors can rely on the Sultanate’s commitment to capitalising on sound, yet flexible, economic policies that are able to respond to fluctuations in both neighbouring and global markets.

Assuming that Oman keeps pace with enacting global standards on economic policy, the current development and expansion taking place in the Sultanate’s economic infrastructure will further contribute to attracting both domestic and foreign investors. This is evident when you take into consideration the benefits of its investment climate across multiple industry sectors, the stability of the country’s economic and political system, an investment-friendly legal framework, and a flexible tax system.

Favourable Legislation

Al Mazaya’s Report further points out that the Sultanate’sreal estate sector has earned a good share of the government’s attention, with a view to introducing more amendments that are necessary to ensure the market’s ability to compete at the regional level. Most recently, several amendments made to the Foreign Investment Law have provided increased openness and incentives, in relation to tax and customs. These recent inclusions are in addition to existing legislation that allows for licensed freehold purchases of all-inclusive tourism compounds and the purchase of reclaimed lands throughout all the Governorates (regions) of the Sultanate. It is worth noting that flexible conditions for land ownership by individuals and companies is largely in accordance with usufruct (long-term leasing) laws and contracts, with an additional stipulation that lands purchased for tourism projects must be reclaimed within four years from the registration date. The owner does, however, withhold the right to resell the constructed buildings at any time and, in addition, the title deeds for the property can also be passed onto the owner’s heirs. These types of investments enjoy a tax exemption period of five years.

 

Infrastructure Development

Al Mazaya’s Reportalso adds that the real estate market in the Sultanate of Oman is one of the fastest developing markets in the region – in large part due to corrective actions being taken to provide an attractive economic environment for boosting activity and investment. This is particularly evident when looking at the real estate sector’s ability to take advantage of continued government spending on infrastructure projects.

Al Mazaya’s Report notes that investment opportunities in the Omani real estate market are present in many of the Sultanate’s cities and regions; therefore, investment opportunities are diverse and compatible with the aims and aspirations of a large number of investors. For example, the Muscat Governorate and all other major cities, including Salalah, Duqm, Al Buraimi and Barka, are currently attractive and experiencing high demand from domestic and foreign investors. Market indicators also reveal potential for further increases in demand, in harmony with their positive economic development and the vast areas of lands available.

On an administrative level, Al Mazaya’s Report suggests that the Omani real estate market would benefit from a more comprehensive database that provides detailed assessment of the quality and reliability of projects; thereby ensuring peace of mind to investors. This, in turn, will contribute to more positive and widespread support from the real estate sector, increase the rates of local, regional and global investment, and provide a solid foundation from which different types of investment decisions can be made.

Al Mazaya’s Report points out that such a database should including details related to the key areas for development and population-related needs, so as to identify the target categories for market analysis. Armed with such information, the planning of real estate investments can be brought into line with more internationally recognised norms for forming medium and long-term development strategies.

 

GCC Investment in Oman

When it comes to foreign investment, it is a well-known fact that GCC nationals account for the largest ratio of real estate ventures, into the Sultanate. This has typically included investments directed at undeveloped land and tourism projects. Al Mazaya’s Report points out that demand from GCC investors has seen a marked increase, in these areas, over the past few years – a direct result of the Sultanate’s economic and political stability, continued government spending, and uninterrupted urban growth in major cities. Competitive land prices and market liquidity are also key factors in motivating GCC investors to look towards Oman.

 

Residential Real Estate Sector – Oman

In terms of the residential sector, Al Mazaya’s Report notes a decrease in the demand for houses, a drop in domestic purchasing power and a decline in the number of title deeds granted to GCC investors over the past year.

It is worth mentioning that while Oman is not a significant oil producer, compared to most of its GCC neighbours, the Omani real estate market is not immune to the effects of declining energy prices and revenues. There is also a tendency in the Omani government towards rationalising continued spending on development projects; however, a deficit in the government budget, for the current year, was recently announced, with 84 per cent of total revenues from oil accounting for spending on development and service projects. That said, Al Mazaya Reportis confident that the Omani real estate market remains among the best investment opportunities in respect of real estate units for middle-income nationals. A rise in the demand for such properties, due to an increase in the Sultanate’s population, is largely being driven by the young adult and first-time buyers’ category.

 

Young Adults and Affordable Housing – Oman

Al Mazaya’s Report notes that there is a significantly young demographic of buyers in Oman, all of whom are looking to own affordable housing units and take their first steps onto the property ladder. It is worth mentioning that the construction of relevant real estate units is currently lacking; however, demand is high, so these locations should not be affected by market fluctuations, in the medium term.

Affordable or low-cost real estate units, aimed specifically at young adults and first-time buyers is expected to drive construction of such projects, based on the premise that demand for all-inclusive housing communities at affordable prices will increase over the next few years. On the other hand, oil price declines and its associated negative impact could affect the ability of young adults to own property, which may increase the likelihood of an upsurge in the pricing of housing units. The knock on effect may then have a negative impact on the pace of real estate investment into the Sultanate.

 

 

 

Conclusion

Al Mazaya Report forecasts that non-oil sectors are going to attain further growth in terms of productivity and contribute to the ongoing diversification of Oman’s income sources. The share of non-oil activity, in Oman, increased by 4.7 per cent, by the end of 2015, sparking confidence that the private sector will play an increasingly important role in advancing and activating investment activities, in the country. Of course, this will largely depend on the Sultanate’s continued commitment to enacting comprehensive infrastructural development, including the ports, airports, roads, and communication networks.

Taking into consideration that the Omani government is focused on energising both domestic and foreign investments across a large number of industry sectors, key opportunities – and high returns – exist for investors in areas such as: public services, healthcare, logistics, manufacturing, tourism, and mining.

In short, the real estate sector is a key priority for the Omani government and this presents huge opportunities for real estate developers and investors, in the medium to long-term.

Al Mazaya Report: Seeking to adjust the real estate market’s progress is a collective responsibility involving governments and the private sector

 

Real estate laws and legislation must counter negative practices of some real estate brokers’

 

In this week’s report, Al Mazaya’s Real Estate Report addresses the fact that regional markets are increasingly struggling to bear the burdens of international economic pressures. Supply and demand indicators are no longer capable of accommodating continuous deviations and distortions relating to fair prices, which is starting to have tangible effects on market forces.

This situation has emerged amidst negative contributions made by some of the region’s real estate brokers, leading to “unnatural forces” in relation to supply and demand – a matter that makes it difficult to assess what is a fair price for available real estate units. Brokers’ ability to influence the volume of offered units, in some markets, means they are able to control the market and prevailing prices, irrespective of a market recession or economic boom.

This situation gives rise to risks on the current and future status of the region’s real estate market, which expects to handover projects to a value exceeding tens of billions of dollars, in the coming years. However, it has become evident, with further laws and legislation coming into force, the space left for negative practices to have any influence is reducing.

Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Real Estate Report points out that the overall influence of real estate brokers’ practices is moving in the reverse direction to the developments in laws and legislation recently passed by several governments – both in the region and internationally. As the cases of brokers’ negative practices reduce, through increased scrutiny over the nature of deals and contracts – in particular those produced by real estate exhibitions – we no longer hear, for example, that off-plan real estate units have been sold several times over with their prices doubling before their projects even come to be built.

In addition, laws and legislations related to real estate financing, enacted by the supervisory bodies, are placing further restrictions and limitations on the values and volumes of liquidity moving towards the real estate sector, thus setting further controls to avoid negative deviations. At the same time, finance networks have become more efficient in terms of calculating risks and revenues. Ultimately, this leads us to conclude that attempts to adjust the real estate market dynamic have become a collective responsibility involving both government bodies and the private sector. This includes the likes of developers and banks, with further transparency and stability in the real estate market assured by new and effective laws and regulations.

Al Mazaya’s Report points out that the most active real estate markets, in terms of new projects, high demand and real estate events, are those where brokers increase their activities and grow their ability to influence whenever demand for residential, commercial and investment real estate products go up. However, their ability to influence goes down where contracts and deals are executed at the level of real estate development companies or through reliable real estate companies with a proven track record in the field of real estate marketing, promotion and deal execution. This, in turn, leads us to believe that real estate markets are becoming more stable and will benefit whenever contracts and deals are executed via official frameworks and by official means. It is worth mentioning here that the ability to regulate the market and brokerage businesses depends increasingly on the end beneficiary, who is obliged to close the deals in official frameworks, avoiding violations. It has become difficult to track and fully control working mechanisms and tools of brokers given the development in the tools they use; this includes unlicensed brokers who often promote their available real estate units online.

UAE

This week’s Al Mazaya Report touches upon the move in the real estate market, in Abu Dhabi, to adjust the tempo of the real estate market and blockade brokers’ malpractices. At a time where the real estate market is going through a level of modification at the level of both developers and financing channels, it will now not be permissible to offer real estate projects for sale or offer projects in real estate exhibitions without obtaining the approval from the Municipal Affairs Department and opening an escrow account. In this context, the emirate is awaiting the application of a lease indicator before the end of 2016, which will set an average costing for rental units in housing areas. The indicator is divided into 237 points and would be binding to both the landlord and lessee. Judicial bodies will also rely upon the indicator, with the courts able to assess rentals based on the detailed information the indicator will provide.

Relying on and applying the measurements from the indicator and its outputs would put an end to the problems facing lessees who are often faced with substantial, unjustified increases in rentals – year after year. The indicator will also help investors designate areas to launch relevant projects. It is planned for this indicator to take effect following the complete enforcement of the real estate regulatory law. This law will regulate the activities of developers, brokers, real estate appraisers, and the registration of real estate units and leases.

Qatar

With the continuing rise of land prices in Qatar and continuing negative practices by real estate brokers in the country, it seems the situation remains static at the present time with violations of applicable laws neither declining nor increasing. It is worth mentioning that one of the key issues lies in real estate brokers intentionally dividing and subleasing villas to generate substantially higher revenues. While there are applicable laws in this respect, effective regulation of this phenomenon has been difficult and violations are spread across the majority of housing areas in the country. It is noticeable that the substantial rise in rents has fuelled this phenomenon, with rents for rooms in divided villas being deemed more reasonable for renters, compared to the prevailing prices of whole units. Al Mazaya’s Report further reveals that the country’s increasing population and limited construction of housing units – serving low-income segments – continues to fuel this issue. It is the opinion of Al Mazaya that the enactment of further lease-relevant laws and legislation is necessary in order to contribute to controlling this phenomenon.

Oman

In the Sultanate of Oman, Al Mazaya’s Report addresses the trends and indicators of urban growth in the country, with government bodies moving to impose further controls and pass a series of laws which regulate the operation of real estate brokerage firms. Much like the measures being introduced in other GCC countries, these procedures aim to limit and regulate the functioning of individual real estate brokers and real estate firms so as to protect the real estate market from illegal practices.

Under the application of the new laws, no individual or real estate firm will be able to practice the profession without obtaining a license from the official regulatory bodies. In addition, real estate brokerage firms will be electronically linked to the concerned ministry in order to monitor the firm’s activity, as well as serving as an observable indicator on demand and supply movements, across the Sultanate’s real estate market.

Conclusion

In assessment of the negative impact of malpractices carried out by real estate brokers in the region’s markets, there is universal agreement that laws and due diligence procedures are needed to maintain a properly regulated and fairly governed real estate market. That said, market indicators concur with Al Mazaya’s assertion that some real estate owners are dealing with brokers to close sale and lease deals, with the aim of saving commissions and expenses charged by licensed real estate brokerage firms; therefore, there is still much to be done to ensure fair practices are upheld. In response, Al Mazaya’s Report urges the speedy and strict introduction of laws and legislation to crack down on violations that inflict damage and harm upon both lessees and the real estate market as a whole.

Al Mazaya’s Report asserts that addressing the professionalism within the industry will help the market and maximise revenues for all parties. It will also highlight the necessity of creating appropriate controls for online marketing processes, which are largely employed by unlicensed brokers.

It is noteworthy that the series of laws and legislation already in force, in many countries in the GCC, have contributed to reducing malpractice and it is clear that the steps being taken in these areas are edging the region’s markets towards greater transparency, stability and growth. Of course, the real estate market can benefit from further controls and laws, with further monitoring and follow-up tools on all violations and negative practices offering the region a competitive edge for foreign capital seeking stable investments in stable markets.

Al Mazaya Report: The time is right to focus on projects targeting middle-income buyers

 

A decline in building materials and energy costs can be key drivers for the development of low and intermediate cost housing

 

The importance of building material costs stems from their considerable impact on the real estate market and investments related to their production. This in turn, impacts on the cost of real estate units – in terms of both sales and leases.

In Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Real Estate Report it is noted that the rise in building material prices to unjustified levels has had an adverse impact on real estate activity in the region and has added further challenges to demand factors – making it difficult to reduce prices of real estate products given the high costs. Any reduction in prices to meet the financial capacity of investors or property buyers will cause the developers to sustain substantial losses or reductions in their profit ratios.

In cases of economic recession, particularly in respect to real estate projects, the decline in prices of energy and building material costs can lead to more affordable real estate products and would increase the pace of external demand, given the attractive power of ready-made real estate products that are already available in the market.

Al Mazaya’s Report notes the presence of positive indicators in the building materials market in the region, despite the upward and downward movement depending on current real estate activity. The key will be for developers to identify the right opportunities and prevailing prices and to use them proportionate to demand.

Al Mazaya’s Report also reveals that the key drivers in this economy are related to the timing as much as the price movement. Real estate markets and developers’ accounts must reflect the supply and demand forces in all economic conditions and they cannot rely on achieving objectives simply based on fluctuating prices. At this level of transparency there may be a need for intense competition among the contracting companies, although this is unnecessary for steel and cement given that the stability and flexibility of their prices grant developers an ability to plan and calculate the cost – throughout the project’s duration.

It is worth mentioning that a recession in business volume may motivate contractors to reduce profit margins to win tenders, a matter that has led to and will lead to reduced building costs. With existing low or intermediate costs of building materials, real estate products of stable and fair prices will help activate demand, irrespective of recession or boom cycles.

UAE

Al Mazaya’s Report points to the difference in costs of building materials in the UAE market – with fluctuations noted from emirate to emirate. Also notable are the differences with regard to the cost of labour, office rentals and land prices, differing levels of quality in building, and other relevant factors related to competition and inflation rates.

It is a fact that building costs in Abu Dhabi are higher than in the other six emirates due to the higher costs of rentals, manpower, land prices and accompanying costs for applying quality, sustainability and safety standards. All of these factors have led to an increase in aggregate building costs, in the UAE capital and the wider emirate. In addition, the UAE real estate market is among those that need stable building material prices to enable the contractors to determine costs. This is because ongoing cost fluctuations motivate the contractors to be patient when entering into new projects or hedge their inclinations towards higher cost estimates, which eventually leads to an increase in overall building costs.

Information issued by the Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi (SCAD) has revealed that the average pricing of building materials saw a rise in Q4 2015, increasing by 16 per cent over the corresponding period, in 2014; however, steel prices marked a decrease by up to 23.5 per cent. The cost of diesel also saw a marked reduction of 20.7 per cent, over the same period. In Dubai, within the same timeframe, prices of building materials dropped, with steel seeing a decline between 23.7 and 19.9 per cent, while cement dropped by a rate of up to 2.4 per cent.

Al Mazaya’s Report adds that the decrease in prices of building materials, along with the decline in oil prices, will activate the UAE real estate market across all categories, and in particular the middle-income group. This will be achieved by immediately constructing housing units at these competitive prices, with forecasts suggesting that the current recession in the prices will not last. At the forefront of this recession is the current cost of energy, which constitutes a large part of the overall production cost.

KSA

In Saudi Arabia, Al Mazaya’s Report notes that in spite of the kingdom’s high production of steel, the domestic demand is also high and increasing due to an undeterred production of real estate and housing projects in the country. Therefore, the Saudi market will remain a target for global steel companies both in the immediate and medium term. Market indicators point out that steel prices are prone to an additional decrease due to continuing negative forecasts in relation to the Chinese and European markets. That said, Al Mazaya’s Report stressed that a recession in prices of steel and building materials, in the Saudi market, is having a positive impact on the cost of real estate and ready-made housing products. It is, therefore, anticipated that prices will go down further – at rates proportional to the reduction in steel prices and other materials (namely oil).

Observers of the Saudi market also believe that there will be a direct impact on the price of housing caused by citizens’ large-scale abstention from purchasing property (60 per cent of the KSA market are tenants not owners) due to the high costs. It is, therefore, expected that such a recession will contribute to a re-offering of real estate products, at prices that are appropriate for the domestic demand.

Qatar

Al Mazaya’s Report notes that the Qatari real estate market has seen a marked increase in the volume of consumption of building materials, in 2016, and has had to resort to importing materials to meet the requirements of hosting the 2022 FIFA World Football Cup. Therefore, indicators of the construction market reveal a rise in building costs with an intense concentration on the execution of infrastructure projects. In this respect, Al Mazaya’s Report suggests that any marked rise in building costs may increase the cost of real estate products and will likely delay the handover of a number of other projects. It is worth mentioning here that the high demand for building materials and their high prices will lay the foundations for a new phase of development for other industries in Qatar and pushes towards an inauguration of new production lines for building material factories. This, in turn, will encourage the private sector to enter into this industry. High building costs, in Qatar, are also often affected by transport costs, which increase during the high demand periods.

 

Conclusion

Al Mazaya’s Report concludes that currently decreasing levels of building materials costs are good and beneficial for refreshing the building and construction sector for the middle-income group, across the GCC. This will become more relevant as the numbers of middle-income groups are increasing. Therefore, there would seem to be no time like the present for developers to commit to projects that will meet this new demand category.

While the expansion of the construction sector and building of houses for middle-income earners will have a direct contribution to the national economy of GCC countries, it is also understood that it will also grant GCC markets further competitiveness in the minds of international real estate investors.

Importance of a diversification strategy to better serve future of the regional real estate market is mounting

Risk of luxury projects exceeding their investment attraction

It has become noticeable, in 2016, that there is a growing trend towards offering more and more housing units in the luxury category for real estate projects – at both the regional and international levels. This comes at a time when we are also noting a rise in both the values and volumes of transactions executed, by investors from the GCC region and some overseas markets known for their interest in luxury properties.

Irrespective of the objectives underlying these purchase decisions, their impact should be assessed and understood from a couple of perspectives. The first being that such a trend will motivate real estate developers to move towards luxury real estate projects and pay less attention to calls for other, more affordable, real estate developments and products. Secondly, it means that foreign investment will bottleneck into a type of investment that is limited to a category within the wealthy community; a matter which leads Al Mazaya to believe that the real estate market is trending towards luxury real estate projects and away from initiatives and plans carried out by government looking to find long-term solutions to housing challenges.

Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Real Estate Report points out that this trend involves many risks; not only for focusing on luxury real estate products, but also for contradicting the demand indicators and fiscal and economic cycles we are currently observing.

Al Mazaya’s Report further notes that luxury real estate projects dominate almost all offered projects in real estate exhibitions and events that are organised at both regional and international levels. This is also true for the nature of projects offered by foreign companies in exhibitions and events hosted by the region’s countries.

 Abu Dhabi

This trend was noticeable at Cityscape Abu Dhabi 2016, which concluded a few days ago, where we saw many new projects launched – amounting to hundreds of billions of US Dollars. Particular focus was on luxury housing projects in the islands surrounding the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, with developers targeting UAE nationals, residents and foreign investors. In addition to this, freehold projects were also launched, again focusing on luxury products. Therefore, villas and luxury tower projects on Saadiyat, Al Reem, and Marina islands appealed to exhibition visitors and were reported to have generated sales at a rate ranging between 40 and 90 per cent, during the period of the exhibition. The greatest losers within the exhibition were projects and real estate products in the intermediate housing category, which seem to have almost disappeared.

In this respect, Al Mazaya’s Report points out that the real estate market in Abu Dhabi has seen a marked rise in the number of luxury real estate products being offered. This has come as a direct result of the handover of ready-made projects, in addition to the existence of trends and resolutions by the companies operating in the emirate to reduce housing allowances proportionate to the prices of luxury category housing units. With these new developments, it has become clear that the number of luxury units being offered is increasing, while a rise in the demand for housing units of affordable prices is low or simply being ignored.

It is Al Mazaya’s opinion that the Abu Dhabi real estate market is in desperate need of offering real estate products at affordable prices, while appealing to all community developers in the emirate for more diverse housing options. This will, in turn, also affect future forecasts for an increased or decreased demand for freehold projects.

Egypt

In this context, Al Mazaya’s Report points out that the events of Cityscape Egypt have also shown a need for diversification. In Egypt, the need for constructing hundreds of thousands of intermediate-level housing units has been placed on private sector companies to undertake an advanced role for carrying out such ambitions. This is largely because government budgets will not be able to complete such projects alone. Therefore, there must be an inevitable collaboration between the private sector and future government projects. If this can be achieved then the demand for housing projects will see an increase and can be expected to continue at a similarly healthy pace, in the future.

Al Mazaya’s Report adds that the gap between supply and demand in the Egyptian market is widening day-by-day due to a booming increase in population. Currently, the deficit is around 600,000 housing units per annum, a matter that reflects the volume of challenges and investment opportunities in front of private development companies. In spite of the momentum, driven by Egyptian and Arab investment, a large number of real estate projects constructed by foreign companies can also serve a luxury category and can benefit a particular segment, due to their higher prices.

Qatar

Qatar’s real estate market leads regional markets in the glut of units being offered in the luxury category, which we have witnessed and will continue to witness with the types of real estate projects being launched over the coming years. The current indicators still indicate an increase in lease revenues, which, according to current information, was an average of 15 per cent during the past year. It is noted that indicators of Qatar’s market also show a continued demand for housing units of all categories, including luxury units. A qualitative defect in real estate investment by the government, with continued focus on the luxury projects, buildings, resorts, palaces and villas, is clearly at the expense of intermediate real estate products, which are not proportionate to the largest segment of demand in this market.

Al Mazaya’s Report emphasises the need to avoid a shortage in intermediate housing products, which will mainly lead to recording high increases in lease prices, high increase in land prices, and thus difficulties in constructing intermediate housing projects. The problem lies with the current preference for investment in luxury projects, with tourism projects and resorts getting priority at this time.

Conclusion

Al Mazaya’s Report also touches on the nature and structure of foreign investments carried out by Gulf and Arabian investors abroad, in particular those investments that lean towards London real estate, which reached upward of GBP 4 billion last year. Noticeable focus was on London’s luxury real estate units and, as a result, luxury real estate prices in London continue to go up without being affected by the tax levied on profits. This is because the market for luxury real estate in London is robust and its wealthy clients come from all over the world.

It is worth mentioning that any global crisis is beneficial to luxury real estate, as it offers a safe investment shelter. That said; Al Mazaya’s Report emphasises the necessity of diversifying real estate projects in harmony with the segments of demand – both in the present and the future – whether local or foreign, without focusing on a single product.

Region’s economies to encourage strategic FDI and exploit opportunities generated by economic pressures

Unique investment advantages and opportunities in Saudi, Omani and Kuwaiti markets

Over the last 40 years, the successes achieved in the region’s investment markets have been instrumental to the continuity and growth of all financial and economic sectors. These successes have varied between one market and another and been spread over different time periods, according to the investment perspectives and plans being implemented. Taking into consideration the impact of economic crises, market fluctuations, as well as the short and long-term economic repercussions that follow, the region’s markets have proven to be resilient, having adopted strategies that continually support growth and development.

Financial indicators can be read or interpreted based on the level of development and competitiveness of investment markets, at the regional and international levels, in addition to their ability to provide quality investment opportunities – in all market conditions. The success of the region’s economies has largely been supported by the inflow of foreign investments and their ability to generate opportunities and cash flow that attracts diverse forms of investment.

Al Mazaya Holding Company’s Weekly Real Estate Report holds that real estate and other investment vehicles are important for attracting local and foreign investments; however, the tools and mechanisms for attracting investment are not always as easy as may be perceived. Considerable preparation, action, planning, resources and expertise are all required to identify the right strategy. This can often require a lot of time, effort and patience in order to achieve their goals.

With world markets all competing for foreign investment, qualitative investment prospects in the real estate sector – in terms of products, target groups and potential goals – have witnessed active expansion over the past ten years.

 Investment Drivers

The Dubai economy has managed to attract almost unlimited amounts of foreign investment through its outstanding preparation, packaging and planning. The Turkish economy has also succeeded in attracting increasing amounts of Gulf-based and international investment through the diversification of opportunities and the development of new laws and regulations. The UK market kept its position at the top of favourite investment destinations for Gulf-based capital, which exceeded GBP120 billion in 2015, with significant focus placed on real estate activities, capital markets and banks.

KSA

As we enter Q2 2016, Al Mazaya’s Report is optimistic about investment activity in KSA, despite the many diverse challenges and the long periods required to obtain ROI on foreign investment plans and programmes. The kingdom, however, is seeking to extend its economic base and allow foreign investors to have freehold ownership – at 100 per cent – and also intends to provide investors with more incentives and facilities, including granting land to build factories or loans to finance foreign industrial investments for up to 75 per cent of the project cost. In return, KSA seems increasingly ready to enter the global investment market with a sovereign fund of USD 2 trillion. The world’s financial community is also waiting to see the outcome of government plans for the privatisation of Aramco.

Through these initiatives, the Kingdom is also attempting to develop medium and long-term investments that will focus on a variety of assets including property, stocks, bonds and other solid investments. Privatisation will drive further deals, which should reflect positively on the investment climate and the increasing role of the private sector in the kingdom.

UAE

The UAE experience, which is based on comprehensive domestic development, is a prime example of how to attract and encourage foreign investment into all sectors of its economy. The UAE government also intends to approve a new investment law, to further drive investment into the country. This is expected to come into effect by the end of 2016.

It is clear that the UAE government actively targets non-oil economic sectors, especially those sectors that contribute most to GDP such as tourism, trade, re-export and ports, as well as petrochemicals and aluminium industries. UAE authorities pay close attention and follow-up to the provision of a developed legislative environment and law making.

Successful experiences in many economies across the world have largely depended on making laws and regulations more attractive to foreign investors, with incentives and clear advantages over competing markets driving the most successful proponents of this strategy. The UAE has achieved many successes in global competitiveness and continues to develop its capacity to facilitate business, as well as being a favourable destination and supportive environment for investors to visit.

Oman

Al Mazaya’s Report also highlights the fact that the Sultanate of Oman has many unique investment opportunities and advantages that are attracting local and foreign investment. The Sultanate depends on its strategic location to activate its economic sectors, while investment plans and strategies continue to assign a bigger role to the Omani private sector – thereby allowing companies to more freely contribute to the comprehensive infrastructure and development plans taking place in the country.

Authorities in Oman are also keen to support local and foreign investors by providing facilities and investment initiatives that will smooth out difficulties and challenges that may deter foreign investment. The Sultanate is also dispatching Omani business delegations to many countries around the world and organising visits for foreign delegations to acquaint them with investment opportunities across all areas of its economy. Currently, Oman promotes its direct investment opportunities through direct meetings and the media and it is to be noted that seaport projects are some of the most prominent opportunities at this time.

Kuwait

Of course, the Kuwaiti economy does not operate in isolation from the activities being recorded in other regional economies and the authorities there are also seeking to adopt laws and legislation that will encourage investment and attract foreign investors.

That said, the Kuwaiti economy is badly in need of foreign investment, although it is not due to a lack of investment opportunities available. It is worth noting that the Kuwaiti economy is a favourite investment destination for a large number of Asian companies, in view of the perceived low investment risks for the foreseeable future. It also provides indefinite investment potential – particularly due to its financial strength. Further development is needed in legislative and legal frameworks so as to get rid of bureaucracy, which hinders the current business environment and deters potential investors. Efforts are also needed to encourage partnerships between the public and private sector, in order to support domestic and foreign investments in the future.

Conclusion

Al Mazaya’s Report notes that, in the immediate future, the aviation, transport, industrial, finance and real estate sectors will be the main focus for regional investment programmes for foreign investors.

Al Mazaya also highlighted the need for mutual investment agreements, in order to alleviate the impact of sovereign funds’ investment concentration abroad and the inability to attract foreign investment. This strategy will enable the region’s economies to attract foreign investment in conjunction with a mutual increase in their economies’ activities in international markets.

Al Mazaya Report holds that the region’s countries are capable of attracting foreign investments from all over the world and, in view of their economic flexibility, diversity of opportunities and financial capacity, they hold many advantages over other global regions and competing economies.

Al Mazaya Report: Slump and recovery indicators should be the basis for setting the number of delivered units

Price drop will whet appetites for real estate units and thus increase investment

This week, the Al Mazaya Holding weekly real estate report covered the range of laws and regulations designed to govern the realty market, which are put in place to prevent bubbles and control negative practices, as well as to ensure that the real estate projects and units are sold at fair prices across the board.

As the supply and demand may vary in the region’s property markets, so too will the solutions vary from one market to another. While some markets in the region have managed to control the negative indicators, actions are underway in other markets to address issues that have come to light. All laws and regulations that are currently in place are continuously monitored to keep track of their positive impacts and to make any necessary amendments where they may not be working sufficiently.

Vacant properties

This week’s Al Mazaya Holding Real Estate Report states that one of the major challenges currently being faced in the market is the increasing number of vacant apartments in some of the regions. In the current state of recession driven by local and international financial and economic pressures, empty units make controlling the high selling and rental prices difficult. To regain control over the sale and rental market, it is necessary to control the unfair prices by supplying more units for sale and rent at fair market prices – this means that prices need to be reduced to enable new income groups enter the market and access properties at affordable prices.

The Al Mazaya report added that identifying viable solutions to control the number of vacant residential units in the region’s real estate market will positively impact all factions involved, as well as the market itself. Landlords and developers will receive fair prices for their units in all conditions, while property seekers will be able to buy or rent units at affordable prices.

Creating solutions will have a positive effect on the real estate market in terms of the level of liquidity, transparency and competition at the local, regional and international levels. This will better position the region’s markets to capture a larger portion of the total foreign investment, which seeks high returns. Success in this regard will depend on the industry’s ability to address the obstacles and challenges that exist in the markets from one business cycle to another.

Al Mazaya Weekly Real Estate Report said that there are no direct tools in place by authorities to put pressure on the owners of empty properties to offer their units in the rental market. Alternative options that are still available to control this situation include: imposing taxes on empty units or reactivating the cap on rental rise upon lease renewal.

Reasons behind the empty properties

The reasons behind the increase or decrease in the number of empty properties may vary from one country to another. Some property markets, like the UAE, have an accelerated pace of construction and regular entries of new projects to the market, enabling them to target all areas of local and foreign property seekers, attracting the attention and meeting all demand indicators. Most often, such markets have more empty units available for sale or rent. This situation is due to the accelerated pace of completion and delivery of ready-to-go units.

Abu Dhabi

Abu Dhabi’s real estate market has a higher level of empty properties, with an estimated 37% of the units available for lease standing vacant. The reason for the units remaining vacant is that real estate companies and landlords are controlling the market, choosing not to offer the vacant units for rent in order to keep the price levels up. To remedy the situation, a new real estate law in the emirate is expected to regulate the activities of real estate brokers and push over 25% of the existing brokers out of the market. Authorities plan to reduce unoccupied properties to only 8% by 2020.

Saudi Arabia

According to Saudi market data, the number of vacant residential units in the KSA real estate market is estimated at 12% of the total number of the ready-to-move-in residential units. This situation comes in a period of a continued housing crisis for the country, coupled with high selling and rental prices. This is  despite the availability of vacant residential units, which offer one of the quickest and most effective solutions when the fact that 60% of Saudi citizens live in rented apartments is considered.

The situation in Saudi Arabia is different from that of other property markets in the world, which may have high rate of empty residential units in period of economic downturn due to falling demand – in KSA, there is a good growth rate shown in the economic indicators. Therefore, it can be surmised that the primary cause for the housing crisis is the high costs of housing, which should be proportionate with income levels, particularly after the taxes imposed on undeveloped land plots. All market statistics show an increasing supply of residential units in all locations, with no real demand due to the exaggerated prices in many places.

Al Mazaya Weekly Real Estate Report revealed that the delivery of more properties is not the right solution for the increasing number of empty residential units, even if these new properties were varied and offered at fair prices. The positive effects of new properties will disappear if those delivered properties are luxury units. In this case, the new supply will not bring the high prices down to fair levels.

The report added that the recovery and recession indicators should be the basis for setting the number of units that should be offered or handed over in the market, taking into consideration the nature and sources of demand. While the demand is for middle and low income housing, the supply of luxurious residential unit will complicate the problem in the market.  If developers and owners delay the handover of projects in order to deny the market access to the residential units, the market will see negative results, as the high selling and rental prices will encourage owners of empty units to offer their units again. This will lead to the realisation of the fair indicator of demand and supply.

Conclusion

There is a noticeable trend in the region’s real estate market to delay the buying decision of all segments of properties, particularly in the KSA and Dubai market. This is because it is expected that the current selling prices will drop, and the prices in the Dubai market will correct following the 2012 upsurge. The attractive market, combined with an anticipated price drop, will whet appetites for real estate units for buyers, sellers, landlords and renters. This will regulate the activities in the market.

In addition, the Saudi market is set to correct, especially after the taxes are imposed on undeveloped land plots – this is because they undermined buying and investment sentiment with those seeking to own or invest in real estate market preferring to wait until market indicators are clear and prices holding steady at low levels. These trends within both markets will cause a further increase in the number of empty houses, which will continue until the recovery and high demand is restored. Once the market achieves a balance and the high demand returns, the losses incurred due to the market downturn will be recovered.

Al Mazaya Report stressed the importance of putting in place measures and regulations to achieve fair prices, as well as identifying methods to track the real demand and supply levels in all conditions. It must be noted that the increasing supply of real estate units and the high number of empty units will damage supply and demand and the fairness of prices. This will decrease the weight of the laws and regulations put in place to increase transparency and integrity of the region’s real estate markets. Finally, the report also stressed the importance of measures taken by the concerned authorities to decrease the number of empty real estate units.

END

Al Mazaya: The role of exhibitions as a platform for supporting the regional real estate sector needs to be reinforced

Al Mazaya Report: Current economic climate ideal for medium and long-term real estate investment

  Real estate exhibitions have been one of the key incentives driving economic activities around the world, as they help market and promote a wide range of a country’s other product and service sectors. This includes both domestic and international activities related to innovative real estate products, as well as products that target a specific demographic.

Exhibition success criteria varies from the number of new exhibitors, size of exhibits and number of visitors, on the one hand, to the number and values of completed deals, the nature of their concentration, and new projects and ideas showcased, on the other. The only constant in this data is that exhibitions should maintain their capacity to provide a large variety of investment opportunities. This will consequently help to keep these exhibitions as a key source for identifying real estate and other investment prospects – across the world.

In this regard, Al Mazaya Holding Company’s Weekly Real Estate Report has highlighted the role of these events in providing opportunities for all interested parties, including buyers and investors, to identify new projects. Exhibitions also open up channels of communication for cooperation and joint action in case of economic crises, in addition to being a useful platform for the exchange of knowledge and expertise.

The positive role these events generate augments when economic pressures in certain countries and other markets enjoy increased purchasing capabilities and a desire to search for foreign investment opportunities.

Increasing financial, economic and political pressures in the GCC countries have had a tangible impact on the pace and feasibility of real estate activities and their ability to achieve their basic targets. Al Mazaya’s Report noted an increase and continuity of activities and events last year and this year, with many pre-set targets achieved. This was most notable within the tourism-related exhibitions, events and conferences.

 Of MICE and Real Estate…

Typically, real estate exhibitions witness high demand from visitors and acquire the largest share of trade and executed deal values, within the MICE industry. Their impact on the activation of other sectors, in their respective local economies, is also well documented. Of course, the impact of real estate exhibitions evolves and progresses over time and according to prevailing economic conditions.

The level of competition, similarity and repetition of events has led many first-class development companies to organise more bespoke and specialised foreign exhibitions for their outstanding real estate products, so as to promote them directly in their target markets. These activities have gained momentum recently and are expected to increase, in the coming years.

Dubai

The concept and content of these activities, in the region, has been best reflected in the success achieved by the Emirate of Dubai, which is now renowned – internationally – as a host city for many exhibitions, across many industry sectors. With a packed exhibition schedule, throughout the year, the city embraces a large number of local and international exhibitions and other events, currently amounting to an annual number of 93; an average of 1.79 events per week.

Dubai has also succeeded in gathering hundreds of real estate development companies from all over the world to offer and regularly showcase their real estate projects to developers and investors. In addition to international MICE events, there are many domestic real estate exhibitions directed to different investor segments. Some of them aim to boost collaboration between Dubai and other cities, with others lending focus to ancillary industries connected to real estate, like interior design and decoration.

 Turkey

Al Mazaya’s Report confirms that real estate activities and events have increased since the beginning of the current year, with competition tough among GCC countries keen to attract investors and investments to their real estate projects.

The CityScape exhibition brand bears witness to this and recently expanded into the Turkish market, with the participation of 67 companies from different countries. Many of these companies were from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait. This exhibition has received interest from a large number of investors and local and international real estate companies and aims to motivate investors from Gulf countries to increase their stake in other projects, in Turkey. The exhibition has proven successful in generating exclusive opportunities for Gulf investors in the Turkish real estate market, which is characterised by its diversity of project sizes and uses.

Gulf-based investments in Turkey reached 30 per cent of the total foreign investment into the country, in 2015, with the country’s real estate market continuing to attract evermore high-end foreign investors. This is backed up by direct government involvement in developing infrastructure and placing real estate development among its core priorities for economic development.

  Abu Dhabi

In the same context, Al Mazaya’s Report has indicated that the UAE capital is getting ready to host Cityscape Abu Dhabi next April, during which a large number of new real estate projects are expected to be announced – both within the emirate and for the UAE in general. A large number of officials, decision makers, investors and real estate developers, as well as financial institutions are expected to attend.

The exhibition will constitute a serious chance to review a great number of real estate projects in Abu Dhabi and internationally. Moreover, this exhibition will be a forum for investors, developers, and experts in the fields of real estate, finance and economics. The importance of this event lies in testing current and anticipated performance indicators, mainly relating to the effects of low oil prices and spending rates, as well as testing actual growth indicators. Challenges related to funding and declining levels of real estate market liquidity will also be on the agenda. Current corrections being observed are seen as an indication of the market’s flexibility, maturity and ability to provide greater investment opportunities directly connected with the development of real estate sector and end user investments.

 Conclusion

Al Mazaya’s Report concludes that regional and international property markets require exhibitors and sector pioneers to make fundamental changes and introduce alternative strategic initiatives to encourage future investments. There is also a need to develop, package and introduce increasingly sophisticated investment models for investors. Al Mazaya’s Report emphasised the need to avoid repeating ideas for products and to continually seek to offer new products, particularly in relation to international exhibitions. This will help to achieve the set goals, add tangible economic value to the markets each project serves, and to continue to produce new investment opportunities that maintain investment attractiveness and competitiveness.

GCC countries require more investment alternatives and innovations to preserve competitiveness in hospitality and tourism sector

Al Mazaya Report: “Hotel Investment raises qualitative investment values and targets more coastal areas and islands”

Since the turn of the century, the tourism sector has been one of the key economic drivers of activity and accelerated growth in GCC economies. This is noted not just within the industry itself, but also in relation to the tourism sector’s ability to become a catalyst for other direct or indirect service sectors to grow.

Undoubtedly, the growth of the regional tourism industry has had a significant role in maintaining the pace of real estate projects and development and, despite the impact of the 2008 financial crisis, the hotel and tourism sector has remained adaptable to the pressures of recession and recovery. In fact, over the last few years, the hospitality and tourism sector has seen accelerated growth rates and continues to raise its contribution to the percentage of GDP in all GCC countries, with various other Middle Eastern countries also noting growth.

With new hotel projects continuing to come online, it has become necessary to reassess the projects in terms of quantity and quality, to compare them with the pace of economic activity around the world, and to enable them to compete with global tourism destinations. Rising competition from across the world adds a variety of challenges to the pace of activity and rate of returns; therefore, the hotel industry may encounter further pressures if construction continues without a clear perception of key indicators relating to demand.

Al Mazaya Holding Company’s Weekly Real Estate Report agrees that tourism diversity is important for alleviating the negative effects of direct competition. Of course, each market in the region relies on its own distinct and relative strengths to distinguish it from neighbouring markets and competitors.

The tourism sector in Saudi Arabia, for example, accounts for huge investments connected to religious tourism, business tourism, recreation and domestic tourism. Understandably, many hotel investments in Qatar are currently setting their sites on catering to the huge influx of guests expected for the FIFA World Cup 2022. The enormity of this event is also expected to drive many other direct or indirect investments into the country. One of the oldest tourism markets in the region, the Kingdom of Bahrain, continues to realise a steady flow of inward investment with continuous demand for real estate developments to support the hotel and tourism sector.

In the UAE, the strategic approach since the start of the century has been to shift focus from domestic and regional tourism to positioning its competitiveness at the international level. There is no doubt that the UAE – and Dubai in particular – continues to set the benchmark in the region when it comes to tourism, with unique and innovative hotel projects a regular feature of its ongoing development. Notably, the UAE is demonstrating its strategic prowess in this sector by continuing to improve its position on both the Global Competitiveness Index and the Top Global Destinations Index.

Al Mazaya’s Report does, however, point out that investment based on long term planning is now an urgent necessity in order to avoid challenges relating to declines in project feasibility and returns, which could cause considerable setbacks to incoming regional tourism traffic.

With reference to the region’s level of activity, investment and competitiveness, Al Mazaya’s Report says that achievements in the hotel sector cannot be discussed without reference to the achievements and successes accomplished by the sector in the UAE – and Dubai in particular.

According to Dubai’s Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing (DTCM), the number of hotel developments currently under construction, in the emirate, is 63, offering an additional 30,000 rooms to the 96,000 the emirate provided, by end of 2015. This activity comes in light of the high targets the Dubai government has set out to achieve, with 20 million tourists expected, per annum, by 2020. Additional estimates suggest this figure could jump to 25 million – in the year Dubai hosts Expo 2020.

With as much as 10 per cent declines recorded on average hotel room rates last year, the hotel sector saw significant improvements on competitiveness indices and showed an ability to maintain high occupancy levels, often exceeding 80 per cent. This reflected positively on investment returns, which were estimated at AED 26.8 billion, by end of 2015, demonstrating strong activity, in spite of the volatility and pressures encountered by international tourism markets.

In this context, the pace of investment in the Gulf hotel sector can be seen to be increasing rapidly. There is also strong competition between neighbouring GCC countries, each keen to raise their share of the regional tourism traffic.

The Kingdom of Bahrain is targeting a contribution of seven per cent of GDP, from its tourism sector, by the year 2020. Additional data indicates that the number of hotel rooms in the kingdom is expected to reach 20,000, by 2018, compared to the 17,000 rooms currently available. In the last two years, Bahrain has seen a steady increase in its hotel occupancy rates, largely due to an upsurge in tourists visiting the kingdom. This was a result of having more options available and maintaining average prices within suitable limits for both regional and international tourists’ budgets. Holiday package deals and promotional offers are seen as a means to attract more visitors – this is an area that definitely could benefit from more promotion and marketing, in order to achieve the aforementioned targets.

In light of the momentum recorded in the regional hotel sector, Al Mazaya’s Report states that the Qatari market will be a significant player in this sector, in the next few years. Current data points to an increase in the number of hotel rooms in the Qatari tourism market – up to 23,000 rooms in early 2016 – with capacity set to rise by 27 per cent, by the year’s end. The sector’s plans and strategies, resulting from both public and private sector activities, aim to increase the number of tourists visiting Qatar to nine million by 2030, with the tourism industry expected to contribute more than five per cent of overall GDP, in the same period.

After the UAE market, the Qatari hotel sector has one of the highest levels of inward investment. Of course, this is in line with the requirements for hosting the FIFA World Cup 2022 and the corresponding development plans being implemented. Current figures indicate that the government intends to spend over USD 45 billion on developing tourism products as it seeks to create tourism experiences that are unique and competitive.

It has become increasingly evident that countries in the region need to create more investment alternatives and innovations so as to maintain the competitiveness of the hospitality and tourism sectors, by creating new advanced destinations and services that are attractive to tourists.

Current demand levels will continue to drive the expansion of regional real estate and tourism investments, with islands and coastal areas, as well as other outstanding sites available for development, set to attract a growing number of tourists. This, in turn, will create more prospects for domestic and foreign private sector investment and will enhance diversification standards for the sector’s output in the coming years.

Despite the current progress and tangible successes already achieved, the tourist sector needs more qualitative local and foreign investments, as well as ongoing commitments and support for the industry, by all regional governments. It should be emphasised here that current investors in the hotel sector are calling for further action in both public and private sectors in order to insure its survival and to avoid any setbacks or unexpected delays in development. To this end, greater coordination and partnerships are required, from all parties, to protect the sector from any unexpected pressures and shocks.

Chinese investments in Europe increase – opening up new investment destinations

 

Al Mazaya: “New real estate destinations and options in Europe raise the value of foreign investments”

European real estate markets have a lot of advantages for foreign direct investors with a largely well regulated and investment-friendly environment that positions European assets and business sectors more favourably than many other worldwide locations.

It is certainly clear, from Al Mazaya’s Report, that many high-net worth (HNW) investors from the Middle East have placed significant investment across the continent, over the last decade. Many assets and holdings in these portfolios reflect aspects of prestige and affluence, as well being a long-term safe haven for the appreciation of value on assets.

Property prices in European markets are typically stable and consistently offer moderate growth rates, therefore offering safe investment positions in virtually all types of economic climate. In addition to this, GCC investors have increasingly demonstrated an improved ability to deal with applicable laws and regulations, thereby curbing and avoiding investment risks, scams and frauds that could cause any direct or indirect loss of investment.

According to current data, the property market in Europe, particularly in the major cities, is going through a period of increased demand and soaring competition. Most recently, Germany took the UK’s mantle as Europe’s most appealing country for real estate investment, ending a two-year British “reign”. Based on GCC foreign investment figures, 17 per cent of investors chose Germany as the continent’s top territory for property investment; the UK dropping into second place with a 15 per cent share.

Clearly, the UK real estate market has lost some its appeal due to weaker economic growth projections, announced recently by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, as well as there being an element of caution being applied ahead of Britain’s upcoming vote on its membership with the EU. That aside, London remains the most attractive city destination for real estate investors coming from the European, Middle East and African (EMEA) regions.

Emirati investment in Europe grew by 15 per cent, in the first quarter of 2016, with UAE investor sentiment set to diversify and increase on purchasing transactions within the Euro Zone. Reduced pricing and diverse payment facilities in the 19-state currency zone’s real estate market is, therefore, expected to increase interest and subsequent values in European real estate investment – further encouraging foreign investors to buy properties on the continent.

Al Mazaya’s Report highlights many advantages of real estate investment in Europe, including a multitude of options in both the ready-to-move-in properties and land plots. The reducing prices in many cities and locations are certainly a catalyst for attracting more foreign investors, with the total value of investment and cash flow, transferred from Middle Eastern investors into Europe, estimated to be USD 14 billion, in 2015; USD 3 billion of which represents the share of real estate investment. With new countries and locations being added to the list of favourable destinations, investor options are also expected to increase this year. The launch of a growing number of new projects – at reduced prices and in new locations – further reinforces the attractiveness of these markets, says Al Mazaya’s Report.

Above all else, the need to diversify the risk of an investment portfolio is a key reason behind the appetite for investment abroad. Return on investment (ROI) is the main factor when it comes to selecting the type, volume and duration of an investment.

Al Mazaya’s Report states that the UK real estate market is currently going through a great deal of challenges due to political and economic uncertainties and so is “losing its shine” compared with competing states on the European mainland. In addition to this, the UK is also suffering from a diminished ability to compete with a number of international real estate markets, with Dubai and Turkey just two examples of this. With the outcome of the UK-EU referendum vote looming, investors may be choosing to wait and see whether existing and planned investment in the UK market needs to be revised or simply held back until more clarity is available.

The UK leaving the EU will initially add a level of investment uncertainty that could result in a negative impact on international investors’ decisions, the overall business climate and the need to reassess and forge new commercial ties with the EU. This may prompt a reduced amount cash flow into the country, with investors also likely to reassess their investments in UK’s stocks and bond markets.

The total volume of the GCC’s investment in the UK was estimated at USD 130 billion, in 2015, with particular focus lent to its real estate, banking and financial sectors. However, despite the buoyancy and resilience of the British economy – currently the fastest growing market in the West – investment may drop due to a range of surrounding pressures, with the real estate market being expected to be the biggest loser.

A recent British government decision to increase regulation on buy-to-let properties will probably lead to a stampede of investors leaving the UK property market and to a short-term oversupply of ready-to-move-in residential units for investment purposes. After the US Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hike interest rates, the Bank of England is expected to follow with a similar move soon. Ultimately, this will raise mortgage rates, causing an inevitable decline in demand.

Additional restrictions imposed on money transfers by individuals have also contributed to the reducing appeal of the UK real estate market to foreign investors; therefore, the UK risks losing more of its status as a safe haven for wealth. Coupled with this, the British real estate market is going through a period of price inflation, which also hurts its appeal to investors. This is particularly true from investors based in the oil-rich countries where declining oil prices are providing their own domestic challenges and economic uncertainties.

Al Mazaya’s Report does note and recognises the increasing level of Chinese investment in Europe, in light of the EU and China’s ongoing development of economic ties. This is trend that is expected to improve and greater align the ambitions of the first and third largest economic zones in the world. (As a combined economic zone, the EU is larger than the US economy.)

The volume of Chinese investment in EU countries reached EUR 14 billion, by end of 2014, while the avenues of investment in China are also proving attractive for European companies. In the same context, Chinese investment expanded to record levels, in 2015, with Europe and the USA the main destinations. The top European destinations were Italy, France and the UK, respectively. Industry-wise, investments were largely focused on the real estate, automobile, finance and IT sectors.

Expanding Chinese investments in Europe and the Middle East are clearly targeting long-term returns through investments in housing and infrastructure projects, in addition to diversifying investment and reducing risks in the face of an economic slowdown in China’s domestic economy.

This week’s Al Mazaya Report highlights the growth indicators in real estate transactions in Europe and the Middle East region, which are seen as the outcome of positive signs being attributed to a growth in real estate investment this year. Therefore, 2016 is expected to be a year of thriving and fruitful business in many areas, particularly in the East European and Middle East regions.

Liquidity of real estate plus laws and regulations are behind the success of the region’s markets

General investment sentiment, together with government initiatives, to boost liquidity of regional real estate market

In spite of the accelerated changes and developments being witnessed by global real estate markets, this region is demonstrating an ability to withstand pressures and challenges – despite supply and demand fluctuations favouring either investors or end users.

That said, the market still reflects equitable and real value in many markets, especially after the slight corrective declines witnessed by the more active markets during 2015 and in the first quarter of 2016.

Clearly, the traded liquidity levels in terms of overall values of daily and monthly real estate transactions and trades – in addition to the rates of traded real estate products, the instructions of control authorities concerned with the values of funding real estate products, and the marketing mechanisms and tools employed by real estate development companies – all determine a value which is required to evaluate the ability of the market to maintain its pace of activity.

Al Mazaya Holding Company’s Weekly Real Estate Report states that the general investment sentiment of the real estate market, together with government initiatives, will boost the liquidity of real estate in all areas. This is without prejudice to laws and regulations, which constitute the minimum levels of control on the real estate market’s movements, in order to protect it from setbacks and unjustifiable price bubbles.

It should be highlighted that the liquidity of GCC real estate is capable of attracting liquidity by providing innovative real estate projects or products that fit all categories. In contrast, various government initiatives – mostly managed through their respective central banks – will amend real estate funding percentages from time to time, reflecting the flexibility and adaptability of these laws to the conditions of the market.

Central Bank regulations tend to support the market in case of decline and help control it in case of recovery. In addition, these laws are important for enabling additional segments of the domestic community to own properties and houses, especially the lower income groups. This increases the liquidity of the real estate sector while ensuring the continuity of real estate projects.

It should be further noted that amendments to certain laws will reduce investment risk in the real estate market and cause financing channels to keep funding plans and expand their activities.

Saudi Arabia

Al Mazaya’s Report asserts that the recent Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency’s (SAMA) decision to raise the borrowing levels for mortgages for citizens to 85 instead of 70 per cent, is expected to boost demand for residential properties. This will boost liquidity in the Saudi real estate market, which is currently suffering from a state of recession due to the government’s decision regarding the taxation of undeveloped land. Moreover, current rates exceed the capacity of middle and low-income citizens to provide the first down payment of 30 percent.

Al Mazaya’s Report also says that while on the surface the decision is classified as positive, the complexities within the Saudi real estate market may deprive this decision of its positive intent. The main problem lies in the high prices of residential units, which currently exceed low to middle income budgetary capabilities. This decision is likely to further increase the prices of residential units, since it will increase short-term demand.

Al Mazaya’s Report emphasises that the Saudi real estate market needs more real estate projects, including ready-to-move-in residential units, as well as the creation of a competitive investment environment to encourage investors to contribute to urban development and diversified products.In this context, Al Mazaya’s Report points to the Egyptian Central Bank’s amendment of mortgage rates for low and middle-income citizens, with the aim of encouraging real estate financing and raising the value of the sector’s liquidity.

All of this can be carried out through the provision of long-term funding with low diminishing returns of five per cent, instead of seven per cent. This should help provide support for the less well off categories. Any government decision like those described above will certainly help to alleviate the burden of low-income citizens, by motivating banks to finance these income segments, with credit risk coverage handled through collective insurance policies.

Al Mazaya’s Report also considers such decisions important for the encouragement of real estate developers to build medium residential units and offer more real estate projects consistent with such trends. That said, these developments will play a role in activating lending from middle-income brackets with banks that could not provide the necessary financing due to the shortage of the supply of residential units. Therefore, the initiatives as a whole will encourage construction for middle-income categories. It is noteworthy that the Egyptian real estate market needs yet more laws in place so as to be able to cope with its longer-term challenges.

Qatar

Al Mazaya’s Report highlights the fact that, at the present time, the Qatari real estate market is enjoying liquidity. It is currently constructing many real estate and infrastructure projects and has financial and banking regulations and laws that are encouraging investments. The government of Qatar clearly recognises the importance of liquidity for the completion of all its projects on time. It is also worth mentioning that the development of the Qatari economy leads to the rapid expansion of its economic base and so growth within the real estate sector remains strong for the foreseeable future.

Al Mazaya’s Report says that the continuity of government projects will increase demand in the leasing market, whether that is for flats, villas or office spaces. All market indicators show that the current liquidity levels in the Qatari real estate market are still good, the banking sector has not been saturated, and that – if needed – it can activate the market by injecting more liquidity. Moreover, certain types of projects, particularly luxury residences at reasonable prices, will give an extra boost to the demand, taking into account the imperatives for continuing to construct appropriate housing projects for all income levels – so as to ensure better buying and selling operations, during the current year.

Liquidity indicators in the most active markets in the region – represented by real estate transactions completed, during 2015 – show that liquidity values are still high and that they continue to realise increases year on year. These values are supported by attracting investment activity and the continuity of good opportunities in the market, in terms of local demand and foreign investment. Added to this are the indicators of domestic investment demand, which can look forward to the attainment of further returns, via the exploitation of investment opportunities at current prices and selling them at higher prices later.

UAE

In the same context, the Dubai real estate market achieved growth at three per cent by the end of last year, at a total value of AED225 billion. This was boosted considerably by the off-plan market, which witnessed a remarkable improvement during the same period.

 

Bahrain

The Bahraini market recorded exceptional deals last year, for a second year in a row, with a total value of BD1.21 billion of closed business recorded. These levels represent indicators of stabilised trading values and the growth of its real estate market.

Conclusion

Referring to the Real Estate Trading Index in the Qatari real estate market, Al Mazaya’s Report noted a total value amounting to QR56.1 billion – a growth rate of 10 per cent. It is worth mentioning here that the high current prices in the Qatari real estate market prevent the achievement of a greater number of higher value transactions in the territory.

Al Mazaya’s Report concludes that real estate market liquidity in the GCC countries is still good and that the laws and regulations applicable at present are suitable for protecting the interests and rights of all parties.

The initiatives of the government and private sector are expected to continue to play a major role in the revitalisation of the real estate market. They will move the market out of recession and into a situation where indicators began to affect the market, despite the start of the decline in oil markets, which will influence the liquidity values relating to long-term investments.

Al Mazaya’s Report stressed the need for a renewed focus on all the projects that will cause other categories to invest and take advantage of opportunities in real estate, since this leads to sustainable activity in sector, as well as other related production and service sectors.

Gulf real estate market has the resilience to respond to financial markets and global economic volatility

Freehold projects will promote foreign investment in the region and diversify income sources

Responsiveness to market developments and domestic and foreign supply and demand indicators are one of the key factors for the success of real estate companies. This is in addition to their ability to introduce unique innovations and ideas into real estate projects, which ultimately determine success for these types of companies, in the long term.

With the accumulation of practical experience, in the face of growing volatility of the financial and economic markets, it has become evident that real estate development companies are now better able to respond to a variety of financial conditions. A company’s plan and strategy is now increasingly diverse – in terms of project size, unit prices, promotion and marketing mechanisms, as well as the addition of price indicators for the end user. Furthermore, there is now a clear ability to introduce real estate products according to targeted public segments, whether that be for luxury, standard or low-cost quality properties.

In this context, it should be highlighted that the increase of freehold shares in new real estate projects has implications that strengthen a company’s status in the market, maintain the attractiveness of its projects and ensure its continuous activity. This will ultimately be in the interest of wider economic and financial activities in the countries where investments are taking place.

Al Mazaya Holding Company’s Weekly Real Estate Report points out that the success of all investment plans related to the real estate sector depend greatly on key elements in the market which control the level of attractiveness for domestic, regional and global investors. The standard of development enjoyed by all other economic sectors is influential in the success of long-term investments, mainly the plans for the extension of freehold opportunities on new real estate projects.

 

 

 

Qatar

Al Mazaya’s Report states that freehold plans and laws in the Qatari real estate market require the expansion of investment rules and procedures so as to facilitate freehold ownership of property by Arab and foreign investors. That is because the freehold law, currently in force, only allows full ownership to GCC citizens, but not others. The law does, however, provide special facilities and privileges for long-term leasing, for a period of up to 99 years with a renewable option for a similar period.

 

UAE

The mechanisms of freehold ownership cannot be addressed without mentioning the success stories achieved in the UAE, and in Dubai in particular. Indeed, all current and future plans that other GCC countries are seeking to carry out are done so with reference to the direct experience of Dubai. The emirate clearly has a lead on neighbouring regional freehold real estate markets, having succeeded in attracting all types and categories of international investor.

With that in mind, it should be said that the level of development recorded in the region has not yet equalled that of the Dubai market, which recorded significant rises in demand over the last two years, before beginning to recede slightly in 2015. Many see this as having a direct relation to the fall in oil prices and its consequences on the liquidity available for investment, as well as having been affected by government spending.

Al Mazaya’s Report can also reveal that real estate investment in the UAE remains resilient. This is due to the fact that it has the direct experience of having suffered the global financial crisis at a time when its market was already opened to freehold investment.

The value of Dubai’s real estate assets declined by more than a half between 2008 and 2010 then rose again and recovered most of their losses until the end of 2014. This is a key indication of the market’s ability to adapt to prevailing economic developments. It should be taken into consideration that the alternation of economic cycles imposed equitable prices of real estate products for freehold purposes, moving the market away from the danger of “price bubbles”.

Bahrain

The Bahraini real estate market has passed through many successful experiences in terms of its freehold real estate sector. This has been, in large, due to the kingdom’s clear vision and ambitious plans relating to a number of economic sectors – particularly in banking, real estate and energy.

It is worth mentioning that freehold projects in the kingdom are diverse, including high-end residential projects and luxury villas, along with medium cost housing.  It should be emphasised here that Bahrain’s freehold projects are part of a comprehensive, countrywide development strategy, which provides for clarity on the nature of the investment opportunities in the kingdom.

Bahrain was ranked fifth on the City of the Future Index (2015), which takes into account the country’s economic potential, business friendly environment, the efficiency of human resources and lifestyle, in addition to applicable direct foreign investment strategies. This means that Bahrain possesses the necessary assets to attract foreign investments, commensurate with the expansion of its real estate market. This includes freehold offerings on one hand, and the innovative and vibrant economic patterns being seen across all other sectors, on the other.

Conclusion

Al Mazaya’s Report says that the freehold experience can be diversified to include other economic activities and sectors, mainly the industrial sector, which has promising prospects for attracting foreign and domestic investment. The industrial sector’s alignment with the economic constituents and natural resources of the regional countries is a major factor here. The region’s economy is witnessing more mobility and changes that are aiming for economic diversification in order to diversify income sources, in addition to revenues from oil and other natural resources.

It should be taken into consideration that freehold projects have had a direct role in the development and introduction of more luxury real estate projects. They have also helped to develop the hospitality sector. This is because the attraction of foreign investment must be accompanied by the development of a wide range of lifestyle concepts and values that go with a real estate development – namely its plans, facilities and location.

Al Mazaya’s Report emphasises that the diversification of investment opportunities in key real estate markets around the world will pressurise the ability of the region’s countries to compete in the present and coming period.

Targeting foreign investors is now a priority for a great number of GCC countries, having made medium and long-term plans exactly for this purpose. This means that freehold and foreign investment markets face many challenges that require qualitative solutions and plans that suit the nature of demand, investor objectives and government plans. Competitiveness is still there and the factors for success are available to many of the regional markets for multi-sector investments, in particularly the real estate products that are subject to freehold laws and regulations.

Al Mazaya’s Report highlights the fact that the region’s markets have significant investment prospects in the real estate and other markets, since they are secure havens for diversified investment. This comes in light of an increasing desire from investors to place their funds in tangible assets with a low cost debt, in addition to the continued government attempts to put an end to the rise in prices and prevent the recurrence of a 2008-style recession.

Since the recent global economic crisis, the region’s markets have managed to avoid the formation of economic “bubbles” in the real estate market, which means that markets have become more mature and are able to retain interest from foreign investors, in the long term.

Al Mazaya’s Report says that the current level of demand in the majority of the region’s markets is within safe limits, while the demand for freehold projects is classified as good, in view of the current prices, yet it cannot be relied upon to realise significant growth rates due to the number of projects and prices currently available.

Middle East is fastest growing world region for the development of Trade and Logistic Services

Qualitative investments aim to maximise added economic value for Gulf states

The region’s countries have begun to take clear positions in relation to their logistical services and they have numerous opportunities to achieve further success – within a comprehensive and cooperative strategic framework. At the same time, certain sectors have the opportunity to lead financial and economic performance while there are slumps or a recession, which is witnessed by the regional and global economies from time to time.

Al Mazaya Holding Company’s Weekly Report has indicated that the volume and number of service projects, development plans, infrastructural development and the size of foreign trade, are all important for the success of logistics services in the region.

Oman

The Sultanate of Oman, for example, is looking to take advantage of its geographical location and huge investments spent on the development of its logistics infrastructure. From the outset of these plans, investments have been directed towards making the Sultanate an international destination to rank among the ten key logistical hubs – in the world.

As part of these plans, the Omani Government aims to attract foreign and domestic investment to raise the sector’s contribution to its GDP. In order to achieve this, Oman can make use of its existing strengths, as represented by its ports, airports, industrial free zones and economic districts.

The success of these plans will also have a significant impact on employment opportunities, support the growth of the national economy, and provide a diversification of income sources, in light of the continued price volatility of oil.

Further success in this domain will require more efforts in the field of legislation and regulations, in order to create a suitable environment for investment and providing an excellent infrastructure. Projects related to the development of seaports, free zones and railway projects would, therefore, play an important part in the activation of other industrial sectors, in the country.

KSA

Al Mazaya’s Report emphasises that the Saudi economy is increasingly moving towards developing its logistics industry, with strategies underway that will allow the sector to contribute no less than 12 per cent to its GDP, by 2018. This will, of course, be largely dependent on the recovery and growth recorded by the sector at the regional and global level.

With the Middle East currently one of the fastest growing regions in the world, in terms of the growth and development of trade and logistics services, significant economic and urban development will continue to back up and support this investment strategy. Investment in this sector promises more profits and success for companies operating in it, considering that all financial and economic indicators show the sector will continue to grow, in KSA, and its services increase over the next few years.

It should be said, at this point, that forecasts reflect the capability of the sector to maintain and build on its current pace and activity, having brought the size of KSA’s domestic logistics industry to more than SR 67 billion, at the end of 2015.

Over the next 10 years, infrastructure development projects in Saudi Arabia will amount to USD 140 billion, with emphasis placed heavily on metro and railway projects. They will be among the most important elements of success for the logistics sector, in the kingdom.

UAE

Al Mazaya’s Report also confirms that the UAE logistics sector is proceeding according to the government’s approved plans and strategies. Continued growth will contribute to the Emirates’ economic diversification and maintain secure thresholds of economic activity for many other relevant sectors.

Forecasts, similar to those of KSA, point to the sector’s ability to contribute up to 12 per cent of GDP, with the value of the industry already amounting to more than AED 92 billion, at the end of 2015. This is due to the country’s strengths, both in terms of strategic location and infrastructure, in addition to the absence of excessive bureaucratic procedures, which helps to vitalise and encourage the growth and development of the sector.

It should be noted here that logistics services will be the one of the most likely industries to benefit from Expo Dubai 2020 (and in the neighbouring state of Qatar, for the 2022 FIFA World Cup).

The sector will also benefit from strong growth in the volume of trade between Asia, Africa and Europe, in addition to the huge development of industrial projects across the GCC countries.

Key indicators show that the logistics industry in the region provides more new investment opportunities, as a result of the increasing intra-regional trade, and enjoys strong government support for further enhancements in the industry. Additional forecasts suggest that this will double the capacity of the sector in the coming years and enable it to play a leading role in facilitating international trade through the development of ports and facilities – to accommodate the expected increase in the industrial, commercial, retail, tourism and hospitality sectors.

Qatar

Current data suggests that the sector, in Qatar, will attract investments of up to QAR 30 billion, over the next years, which will also raise the sector’s contribution to GDP and support economic diversification. Al Mazaya’s Report states that Qatar considers the private sector a key strategic partner for the development of the logistics sector and will play a definitive role in supporting development across the country.

The Qatari government is working on the principles of equal opportunities, the realisation of added value for Qatar’s economy, and giving priority to Qatari companies. The Logistics Committee at the Ministry of Economy and Commerce has also recently signed agreements with a number of banks to provide funding for investors in logistics zones, on long-term financing terms of up to ten years. Clearly, this will facilitate and help these projects to be completed more quickly and easily.

It is also clear to regional observers that the Qatari authorities are working hard to provide support for all related projects, in order to reduce operating costs for investors and improve productivity, by providing high-level infrastructure and facilities for a variety of uses. This will reflect positively on the market and the price of products and logistics services. It will also raise investment attractiveness and competitiveness for the country.

Bahrain

Al Mazaya’s Report further highlights the investment and operational activity that has been recorded in the Bahraini logistics sector over the past few years; allowing the kingdom to establish advanced positions among the top specialised free zones, in the Middle East.

Bahrain’s free zones provide tenants with added value for export, import and re-export operations. It also offers competitive prices and high quality services, which has attracted a number of international companies to the island kingdom. The logistics sector receives a lot of direct government focus and support in all such circumstances.

Bahrain has also recently allowed companies with foreign capital to invest in land, sea and air-related logistics agents, as well as for re-export and value-added logistical services. By these actions, the authorities clearly intend to attract foreign investment, in light of the economic situation affected by the collapse of oil prices to below USD 30 per barrel. The amendments aim to improve the business environment, strengthen its competitiveness on regional and global levels and attract and nationalise more investment projects, in the kingdom.

Conclusion

Al Mazaya’s Report concludes that all the indicators show that the logistics industry in the region’s countries is capable of an annual average growth rate of up to seven per cent this year. The sector, therefore, is looking forward to more partnerships and contributions from the public and private sectors and companies of all categories and activities. This should be a key priority for those in charge of the region’s development plans, if they want to develop the sector, double its capacity and support the economies of the region, during the current year and future periods.

The criteria of stability, returns and demand for luxury properties heighten competition between Dubai and Istanbul

Financial, economic and political stability factors are always important in attracting domestic and foreign investments, in addition to opportunities provided by public and private sector development strategies. Stability requirements and investment returns are among the standards which determine the strength or weakness of demand for real estate products, as well as the value and volume of real estate dealings, in all territories.

Real estate market indicators in many countries are now showing a rise in supply, while other markets suffer from a shortage of medium and low cost real estate products, yet an increase in the supply of luxury real estate.

A number of major international cities like London, Dubai and Istanbul have recorded an increase in foreign investment over the last year. In all cases, the markets that provide the highest standards of benefits, including stability of prices, fixed value of investment assets and higher returns, are the markets where demand for real estate products will continue. They will also witness new real estate projects that meet diversity in demand, which means more competitiveness and innovation in real estate projects.

In this regard, Al Mazaya Holding Company’s Weekly Real Estate Report highlights the importance of investment activity currently being recorded in the Turkish real estate sector and its increasing appeal, due to the country’s ability to make quick amendments in laws and regulations to attract investors. The real estate market in Dubai, however, remains in the lead when it comes to its competiveness with major cities around the world and in terms of the volume of investments, growth of demand, the modernity of projects and its ability to meet the goals and aspirations of a wide number of international investors.

It is worth mentioning here that the Dubai and Turkish real estate markets enjoy a high level of investment appeal and feasibility in the medium and long term. Of course, there remain differences between the two markets. Dubai tends to attract investment based on business development and, as an attraction for foreign companies, building the Emirate’s competitiveness at the international level, so as to create a leading position among other key world cities. On the other hand, in Turkey, domestic and foreign demand for tourism and recreation projects account for a large share of the activity recorded by the Turkish real estate market.

With particular reference to the Turkish real estate market, Al Mazaya Report says that there are a number of internal economic pressures and indicators proving favourable for the continuity of foreign investment opportunities. With the continued demand for Turkish properties by individual investors, from GCC countries in particular, it is clear that Arab investments are steering clear from other regional markets that are witnessing social and political turbulence. This reinforces the attractiveness of the Turkish real estate market for HNWI (High Net Worth Individual) Arabs and raises the prospects of their continued interest in the Turkish market, as long as there is stability in the country.

Circulated data indicates that currently 25 per cent of sales in the Turkish real estate market are conducted by foreigners, amounting to 15 per cent of the total value of deals in Turkey. In 2015, 35 per cent of these foreign buyers were Arab.

Al Mazaya’s Report also points to market data that indicates GCC-based capital has acquired USD 2 billion, out of USD 5 billion, in Turkey, raising the number of completed deals of Arab investors to approximately 11,000 real estate units in 2015, with this number is expected to reach 15,000 units in 2016.

With a diversity of real estate products, in the Turkish market, the sale of houses to foreigners exceeded 23 per cent in Q4 2015, compared to the same period in 2014. It is to be noted that a large part of real estate demand and investment for residential projects is currently focused in or around Istanbul. It is projected that the price of land will increase in areas where the number of residential projects is rising, which means more returns for the owners of these investments.

In view of its geographic location, stability and progress, natural beauty and cultural history, Turkey has many attractive elements that appeal to investors. Attractive prices have also helped to increase the demand from GCC investors, especially if compared with the prices of properties in Europe and the US.

Accordingly, the Turkish real estate market has lately been recording significant rises in the price of real estate assets. This means that prospects for the construction of low cost housing projects will decrease if land prices maintain their rise and high taxes continue to be levied on properties. Despite the pressures on the Turkish economy, there are still chances to enter into good investments in its real estate sector.

The impact of low oil prices, decline of financial markets and the development of the Chinese economy, is actually working in the interest of existing investors in the Turkish market. With projections of decreasing Russian investments in the country, the pace of demand and increased supply will affect the real estate market and lead to a further decline in the prices of real estate projects. This should provide Arab investors with good opportunities for negotiation – at point of sale.

Al Mazaya Report states that the Dubai real estate market enjoys all necessary elements for competitiveness at both regional and global levels with the sector’s liquidity still good and able to attract foreign demand for its products. This is in light of the fact that supply and demand forces are balanced.

The market demand for residential units in the emirate has increased at an average of 6.5 per cent annually, mainly as a result of the continued projects connected with hosting Expo 2020. Al Mazaya says that the emirate is still an ideal destination for foreign investors to develop their business around the world, in view of its strategic location connecting the East and West. As a result, the demand for Dubai properties is witnessing continuing growth. This is because the business sector in the emirate is growing in line with its activity, despite the low oil prices. The emirate’s economy remains strong and stable, since its main source of revenue depends mainly on non-oil trade, tourism and the business sector.

The report also points out that Dubai’s luxury properties are still targeted by HNWIs across the world. As for returns, the value of assets and projects constructed before and after the financial crisis has realised higher rates of returns for their owners, while the leasing sector has also achieved strong results and high returns.

Al Mazaya’s Report considers that the competition between Dubai and Istanbul markets will gain yet more momentum in the coming year. The tourism sector will take a lead as it is considered a key driver for real estate demand in both markets. Business activities, government plans and financial and political stability factors will also be highly important for the consistency of demand and the increase of real estate activities of companies, in both territories.

It is noteworthy that over 10,000 of the richest investors in the world have a significant presence in Dubai, which has increased – and will continue to increase – the market’s attractiveness for more investors. Istanbul’s real estate market is currently ranked fourth in the world in a recent report on international rankings of the best investment locations around the world; Dubai is ranked seventh.

GCC countries need to implement ambitious, economically diversified industrial and tourism strategies

Heading for greater domestic competitiveness and a presence in foreign markets seen as way to avoid market volatilities

Al Mazaya Holding Company’s Weekly Real Estate Report has revealed that a sustained decline in oil revenues will stimulate factors for economic diversification of regional economies and the development of non-oil production sectors – mainly the industrial sector, which is already one of the region’s most significant income sources.

The general mood for investment in GCC countries remains strong and there are increasingly good indicators that are encouraging direct investments in the industrial sector. This comes in light of indicators showing the GCC countries’ share of direct foreign investment (DFI) amounted to USD30 billion at the end of 2015.

With GCC countries increasingly seen to be encouraging foreign investment, this has proven to have had a positive impact on the ability of the economies of these countries to withstand successive economic crises and oil price fluctuations. GCC countries have had to define clear policies for development based on integrated efforts in the financial and economic sectors to attract foreign investment. Al Mazaya’s Report fully supports efforts for laying down long-term ambitious strategies for development of the economic sector.

In order to be successful, Al Mazaya’s Report has identified that the approval of relevant laws and regulations, providing facilities and motivations for foreign investors and attracting all that boosts the competitiveness of the GCC industries, is needed. Despite many achievements in this domain, GCC countries are still required to exert greater efforts to encourage foreign investment in vital sectors.

UAE’s economic diversification: A regional benchmark

According to Al Mazaya’s Report, we cannot talk about diversification of income resources without reference to the successes already achieved by the emirate of Dubai and the UAE as a whole. Economic diversification has been the basis of the UAE’s leading regional role in this area and has meant that it is now ranked among the most secure and stable nations (Standard & Poor’s UAE rating standing at “AA”, for 2015). The UAE is also ranked number one among the GCC countries in terms of economic diversification – versus the oil sector’s role in gross domestic product (GDP).

The UAE Ministry of Economy (MoE) aims to increase the industrial sector’s GDP contribution to 25 per cent, by 2021. The UAE government’s ambitious strategy to reinforce the industrial sector’s role in its economy is seen as a significant contribution to the diversification of income resources – the industrial sector is already the second largest contributor to the UAE’s gross national product (GNP), after oil and gas.

Dubai’s oil and gas sector contribution to its GDP decreased to just two per cent by the end of 2015, reflecting the outcome of its economic diversification policy. It should be noted here that the reduction of oil revenue has impacted on economic activities, though this has proven to be lower than its impact on the economies of neighbouring GCC countries.

KSA

Al Mazaya’s Report has indicated that the economic sector is among the key development priorities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). In this context, the kingdom’s plans are expanding in the field of mineral exploration – in particular copper mining, which is currently the third largest contributor to the kingdom’s economy, after oil and petrochemicals. New mineral deposits and discoveries in KSA now represent a significant part of the government’s plans to diversify and expand production activities, as well as to provide a platform for investment opportunities from both domestic and foreign capital.

Based on the recent oil price fluctuations – predominantly in decline in recent years – the kingdom’s income has been negatively affected. Therefore, it is necessary to diversify income sources in the Saudi economy and shift from full reliance on oil to diversified resources. Non-oil exports have increased by 8.6 per cent, exceeding SR186 billion in 2015, while the kingdom’s export of petrochemicals has increased by 9.2 per cent, exceeding SR143 billion, for the same year.

Al Mazaya’s Report supports the economic and income diversification reflected in GCC countries’ 2016 budgets, yet there continue to be variations in plans, targets and timing that may require increased cross-border co-ordination.

The UAE and Qatar are currently leading the way in this field whereas KSA and Kuwait are developing their capabilities for diversification through a number of short and medium-term strategies. The Saudi budget aims to reduce an unprecedented budget deficit through retrenchment and the introduction of essential reforms into energy support mechanisms, with attempts to increase revenue from taxes and privatisation seen to be key.

Many observers and experts have suggested that KSA’s current budget reflects a positive way to address financial and economic reform, while others see that the actual decline in the volume of expenditure will be more severe than that reflected by the budget – based on current spending. It should be stressed here that the pace of reform in the country remains slow and that even current initiatives will take years before positive results can be seen to have any significant effect.

Qatar

The consequences of decisions on diversification of income are quite clear in the Qatari economy, which has depended on local and foreign expansion of all financial and economic activities for several years. In spite of the decline in oil returns, the Qatari economy has continued its growth and progress to become the second fastest growing economy in the world, at a rate of 7.1 per cent, by end of 2015. This is an indication that the Qatari economy has not been as adversely affected by the low oil returns as some of its neighbouring countries.

It is noteworthy that the Qatari economy is now regarded as one of the most competitive economies – worldwide – being ranked 13th on a list for global competitiveness, last year, and second among the Arab countries after the UAE. Therefore, Qatar has clearly seen significant advances in terms of economic performance and efficiency, business efficiency and development of its infrastructure. Al Mazaya’s Report expects the Qatari economy will maintain similar growth rates in 2016 with a continued growth of non-oil activities.

Investment spending, an extensive and comprehensive economic policy, population growth, the improved contribution of the non-oil sector to its GDP and plans and targets for the private sector will help stimulate this – all of which witnessed healthy growth, in 2015. In addition, Qatar is implementing an ambitious strategy regarding the diversification of income sources, relying on sovereign investments that are currently estimated at USD250 billion.

Tourism and non-oil sector investment strategies

Al Mazaya’s Report considers the tourism sector in the GCC countries to be a key factor for maximising short to medium-term returns and a significant conduit for attracting non-oil sector domestic and foreign investment. Strategies of the region’s countries, working within this framework, will see each country looking to highlight its distinctive advantages for acquiring an increased share of the international tourism market.

Currently, the UAE is ranked second in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with direct GDP contributions from the travel and tourism sector estimated at AED61 billion, a growth rate of 4.9 per cent in 2015. This occurs in light of the rise in the total value of investments in the travel and tourism sector by 13.5 per cent.

Within the framework of reinforcing non-oil revenue returns in the GCC countries, the Qatari tourism sector contributed QR13.6 billion to its domestic GDP, which now equals around four per cent of the non-oil sector. With increasing investment being driven into its tourism sector, it is expected that Qatar will continue to become an important destination for tourists from all over the world.

The Sultanate of Oman has also recently managed to improve its status as a tourist destination, with the sector driving GDP to approximately 2.2 per cent, by end of 2015.

The medium-term plans and strategies of the Kingdom of Bahrain have shown even further increases in the percentage of the travel and tourism sector and its GDP contribution, with 17.4 per cent the target expected by 2021.

Al Mazaya’s Report indicates that the industrial sector’s development plans will take a longer period to improve its contribution to GDP in the GCC countries. It should be highlighted here though that the UAE’s benchmark of 25 per cent, for industrial sector GDP contributions, is an aim being adopted by most GCC countries, by the beginning of 2021.

Saudi investments in the field of industrial sector development reached SR156 billion, in 2015, with the objective of increasing the sector’s contribution to 20 per cent of domestic GDP, by end of 2016. Al Mazaya’s Report argues that in realising such goals, the impact on the level of economic and income source diversification will be significant and the capability of GCC states to face market volatility, through increased competitiveness, diversification and a greater presence in foreign markets will be assured.

Al Mazaya Report: Plans for long-term secure investment havens find a sought after treasure in land

 

The importance of the real estate sector is such that it is undoubtedly affecting current price indicators for other goods and services. This is primarily caused by changes in the prices of different real estate products, in terms of selling, purchasing and leasing. In turn, the surrounding indicators related to the oil sector, financial markets and a country’s budget will affect the pricing of real estate products.

In this context, Al Mazaya Holding Company’s Weekly Real Estate Report would like to highlight that, in the coming period, the stability of real estate values – and their tendency to rise – will be limited to land prices. This is an effect that will be felt across the region and the wider world in 2016.

Demand for all types of land and locations across the GCC region will continue; however, this is in spite of the challenges encountered by the region’s economies and indicators showing a decline in the values of investment liquidity. While land is the key component of any real estate market, the continued demand for real estate products will help to keep prices high, with even higher prices to be expected in the short term. It should be emphasised that land still keeps its status as a secure haven in the face of financial and economic challenges and crises.

UAE

Al Mazaya Report points out that, to date, the land sector in the UAE has kept its appeal. The indicators of supply and demand are due to investment in real estate ownership, in terms of revenue and fluctuation factors, mostly influencing this. This comes in light of projections that land prices will increase more rapidly than the rise in the prices of residential units in the coming years.

It should be noted here that prices have not yet reached their level in 2008 – regardless of the nature and reasons for those prices – as well as their fairness and their dependence on the forces of supply and demand. This will keep the door open for further price rises. It is also noteworthy that in view of the increased value of land, investment in it will be limited to a specific number of investors.

Real estate developers will obviously enter as one of key competitors for land investment. Land investment will require high liquidity values that are not available for many of those interested in real estate investment. The data issued by the Dubai Land Department indicates that the demand for land is higher than that for residential villas and apartments. This bears positive indicators of continued activity and more projects in the tourism, retail, housing and commercial sectors.

 

Qatar

The activity witnessed by the Qatari real estate market in recent years comes as a result of the continued pace of growth of this sector, supported by infrastructure projects expected to amount to around USD200 billion in the coming five years. Qatar is also expected to achieve a significant leap in the volume of real estate sales, including open land and real estate of different types and categories.

It is worth mentioning that land prices in Qatar have witnessed record increases in the past few years as a direct result of rising demand and the expectations of still higher demand. There is also the liquidity factor and the negative role of brokers in this respect, which caused rises to reach 30 per cent within a short period. This will multiply construction costs and consequently the final price of real estate products, which will ultimately reflect on the final sale prices and leasing rates. This will cause a sharp price bubble if the situation is allowed to continue – in addition to the landowners’ already high control of the market.

The indicator of open land prices in Qatar has risen at more than 270 per cent in the period between 2009 and 2014, so the land value has become approximately 50 per cent of the total value of the property.

KSA

In the same context, Al Mazaya Report states that the decision on tax impositions relating to open lands in the Saudi market has had an impact on the values and volume of sales carried out last year, as well as on current prices. This decision is expected to motivate the owners of open land to develop or sell it to real estate developers. In both cases, this will reduce pressure on the demand for real estate and decrease the prevailing prices.

Pricing of real estate properties in Saudi Arabia is one of the most complex challenges facing the government there, in addition to the suffering of citizens who are attempting to own a house or buy residential real estate. It is hoped that the land tax decision will drain off sources of liquidity that, in turn, finance speculation and money circulation.

In Real Estate circles this decision is expected to prompt a decline of land prices and expedite the end of the real estate and housing crisis. It should be emphasised here that the direct impact of the decision on prevailing prices is still insignificant, especially with the market undergoing a significant depression and with prices still high compared with individuals’ income and credit capacity.

Al Mazaya Report further emphasises that the returns gained by landowners as a result of high prices exceed the income they obtain from leasing residential or investment units. They also exceed the return of the sale of real estate projects to the end user or to investors. This occurs if fluctuation ranges are added to prices from time to time, in addition to the costs of building, funding, maintenance and associated costs.

What is noteworthy here is the increased tendency towards investment in land whenever financial and economic pressures increase. That is because real estate selling and leasing prices are declining significantly, while land prices remain steady – and often witnessing remarkable increases.

The competition of developers and landowners for the purchase of land in the UAE real estate market, for example, is the result of the rise in expected returns in the coming years, ranging between 30 percent and 50 percent, while the returns for leasing varies between 10 per cent and 20 per cent. This is especially true of the hotel sector, which is considered a better investment than residential real estate.

In contrast, the high increases recorded by land prices in Qatar have enabled landowners to obtain returns in excess of 100 per cent within a short period. All challenges and financial crises have not affected the classification of land as a secure haven for investment, followed by investment in different kinds of real estate.

Al Mazaya Report: Recommendations

Al Mazaya Report asserts that the continued rise of land prices has repercussions that require attention and timely resolutions by the concerned agencies. The most important of these issues is the high price of land, as well as the increased volume and value of government and private projects in the region, which are also increasing the demand for land. On the other hand, the search for secure havens for the employment of investment liquidity increases the price of land since this sector provides constant long-term returns, despite the instability suffered by countries’ economies at present.

The factor of high returns in the real estate sector occupying a large share of economic activity provides investors with exceptional investment opportunities, protecting their liquidity and investing it in the most profitable sectors.

Al Mazaya Report states that the high price of land has significant economic effects that will make real estate development unfeasible for both medium and prime properties, which usually give high profit margins. They may raise the cost of construction of new projects and affect their returns, weakening the competitiveness of the new projects and leading to negative impact on the prevailing inflation rates. Land cost is the main reason for the inflation of black market prices, in both sale and lease of real estate units.

In this context, Al Mazaya Report states that in order to control the rising land prices, indicators point most probably to the imposition – by a number of regional states – of fixed taxes on landowners who do not invest in their lands within a certain period from the date of purchase. This will increase the supply of lands and will consequently reduce the average prices.

In conclusion, Al Mazaya Report argues that the rise in land prices is a natural indicator of the increase in demand and the high momentum of real estate projects. The continued and unjustified rise resulting from monopoly and speculation is dangerous for the growth of the real estate sector and its classification as the best secure haven – and often used by the regional economies – to attract migrating capitals.

Real estate market in need of more innovative investment tools to cope with economic fluctuations

Al Mazaya Report: Investment funds are one of the most highly efficient solutions for maximising assets and maintaining long-term investments

Current financial and economic developments, early into 2016, are showing that focusing on the right investment tools and approaches will be key to protecting achievements, gains and ensuring growth and recovery of all key economic sectors.

In efforts to support an efficient and integrated economy that is able to cope with economic fluctuations and financial crises, Al Mazaya’s Weekly Report invites regional economies to look seriously at encouraging a more widespread promotion of investment funds. Real estate investment funds, in particular, being some of the most efficient solutions for reducing investment risks and offering guaranteed target returns.

While investment funds have existed for some time, they are a sound financial vehicle for managing economic stability; however, the demand for their tools are directly proportional to the common and projected investment risks in an economy – the higher the investment risks, the lower direct investment is, fuelling a greater the demand for investment funds.

In the opinion of Al Mazaya’s Report, the region’s financial and economic development has not been accompanied by an appropriate development of supporting investment tools. As such, the pace of economic activities requires a continuation of investment liquidity in the “arteries” of domestic economies.

Al Mazaya’s Report further suggests, that a “culture of investment funds” should be encouraged as one of the potential solutions – in order to hedge the risks of direct and indirect investment.

Al Mazaya Holding Company’s Weekly Real Estate Report acknowledges that while investment prospects are currently declining quantitatively, investment risks are often too high for individuals to take on alone. Investment funds, therefore, can provide what regional markets currently need.

At the start of 2016, the number of real estate investment funds in the region, as well as the values of the target economy and their basic goals, is largely insufficient and unfit for the requirements of the time. In addition, supportive regulations and laws need to both drive and meet the demand. Al Mazaya’s Report further states that the encouragement and promotion of “collective investment concepts” at the individual and private sector investment level will be highly important in driving the development and recovery of the region’s real estate sector.

Unfortunately, despite the importance and benefits real estate funds can have on driving stability and progress in an economy, these vehicles have not been disseminated as widely as they could be, in the region’s markets. This makes us believe that the failure to start listing the units of funds, through the main financial markets, could be a major reason for a noted decline of these funds.

The importance of investment funds emanates from these funds being based on comprehensive real estate investment. They can purchase unbuiltlands, develop them, build residential and commercial complexes, buy existing real estate properties and benefit from their leasing revenue, and – ultimately – they can be sold. It should be noted that many laws in force allow these funds to sell off-plan, which activates these funds and increases the number and value of these investments.

Saudi Arabian Real Estate Fund – Market Overview

Currently, Saudi Arabia is considered the best of the region’s markets in this respect. 11 real estate funds exist there at present, under the supervision of the Capital Market Authority (CMA). However, the current number still remains low and not in keeping with the volume of the Saudi real estate market’s size – estimated at SAR 1.3 trillion – and it is also not compatible with the volume of demand for the residential and commercial sector.

According to Al Mazaya’s Report, investors are looking for direct, transparent and rapid investments in all circumstances, regardless of the level of realised profits and losses. Therefore, investors’ preferences emphasise the feasibility and circulation of an investment fund “culture” as a highly efficient solution for maximising assets and preserving investments in the long-term.

On the other hand, existing funds in many regional countries are run in a primitive manner, while “dissociation operations” with long periods in order to complete deals being a downside factor. There are also difficulties in the determination of unit prices in view of the absence of a market in which prices are circulated among a large number of buyers and sellers.

This has recently caused the board of Directors of Saudi’s CMA to issue a decision stating that valuation reports will not be accepted for real estate investment funds unless assessors who enjoy membership in the Authority prepare them. Al Mazaya’s Report welcomes this decision as highly important for the revival and encouragement of collective investment programmes and investment funds, since it enhances transparency and disclosure and provides a secure environment that attracts investment.

UAE-China Joint Strategic Investment Fund

In related news, Al Mazaya’s Report considers that the Joint Strategic Investment Fund, launched by the UAE and China with a value of US$10 billion – for commercial investments, conventional and renewable energy fields, infrastructure and advanced manufacturing initiatives – will strengthen and deepen strategic and economic relations, boost the growth of the world economy and promote the economic diversification approach, in the Gulf region.

Such initiatives serve as an introduction to higher investment values and more comprehensive goals in the coming period. They may pave the way for the expansion of investment in various funds – especially real estate funds – and try to impose corrective tools for the real estate market whenever it suffers distortions and deviations and concentrate investment on the medium-term by reinforcing the activities of real estate developers – a much needed proposition for the real estate market in the UAE.

UAE Real Estate – Market Overview

The liquidity of the real estate sector in the UAE remains good. The available investment opportunities are diverse, attractive and competitiveness with regional and global markets is still at its best. As such, real estate investment funds would help maintain the local investment liquidity and attract more from overseas.

Al Mazaya’s Report says that the downturn indicators in real estate investment volumes, during the current year, are as a result of the prevailing financial and economic developments, which increasingly points to the feasibility of collective real estate investment, in various types of investment funds.

The continuation of government spending on development and infrastructure projects will provide additional support for the expansion of joint investment strategies, taking into account that the decline in oil revenues and the strength of the dollar will lead to a decline in the flow of capital towards the real estate market in a number of countries and cities in the region – particularly the Emirate of Dubai.

Consequently, real estate markets of the size of the region’s markets require the promotion of a collective investment culture to improve the quality of output and maintain the value of investment assets. It is noteworthy that the value of land and real estate transactions in Dubai reached AED 267 billion, in 2015, an increase of 8 per cent, over the previous year (2014).

Qatar Real Estate Sector Overview

In 2015, the Qatari real estate sector recorded a rise in the value of real estate transactions, with an increase of 5.6 per cent and a total value that exceeded QAR56 billion. Al Mazaya’s Report states that the Qatari real estate sector has taken an upward trend in recent years, which raises optimism and maintains growth. The sector, therefore, is ripe for developing new investment tools.

Conclusion

Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Real Estate Report can confirm that real estate investment funds have demonstrated good performance over the past years in terms of both realisability and risk. The performance of many funds exceeds the average performance of the market, while maintaining the preferences of many investors who prefer to invest in funds instead of owning real estate directly.  In addition, funds have a higher liquidity than that of actual real estate making investment in these funds more attractive.

The Report also points out that the elements required for the establishment of real estate investment funds are available in the region’s markets because of the availability of real estate development companies, an abundance and diversity of real estate market products, and the development of hotels, residential and commercial properties and shopping centres. In addition, the regional mortgage market has matured over the last few years, which leads us to believe that the trend towards investment in real estate funds will expand in the coming period.

GCC and global economies hope for Chinese economic

recovery in 2016

 

There is a growing sense of unease across global markets about what 2016 has in store. Many countries are struggling to stave off a feared return to the dark days of the 2008 financial crisis and, in particular, China seems to be trying unsuccessfully to prop up markets that seem determined to fall precipitously. The situation in China is worrying for all of the world’s economies, not least for those with direct interests in the Chinese manufacturing story or those for whom China represents a major trading partner. The downward pressure on energy prices that a slowing Chinese industrial sector exerts has lately been well documented, and today we are seeing exactly what the repercussions are for Gulf states. It is no wonder, then, that it is to China that the world’s financial experts look as they try to make economic forecasts for the coming months.

In 2015, we saw the Chinese economy retract by some 6.9 percent, the worst retraction in 25 years. Across most sectors in China, we today see economic strain making itself felt: despite slowed industry, for example, in many domestic Chinese markets we see surplus, in real estate, we see supply outstripping demand, and in export trade we see volumes falling off. The Chinese financial services sector is also struggling due to slowed growth throughout the Far East. China’s status as a major engine of growth for the global economy, thanks to its normally insatiable appetite for raw materials, means that any sort of Chinese slowdown augurs badly for global markets. The knock on effects of Chinese recession can cause first ripples and then shockwaves of panic in all the world’s major markets.

Al-Mazaya Holdings Weekly Real-Estate Report states that the challenge for Chinese leaders in 2016 will be to steer the country’s economy away from reliance on heavy industry, debt markets and export, and to instead allow domestic supply and demand curves to once again hold sway in traditional Chinese markets. Certainly, we are seeing some evidence of this transfer taking place, or that efforts to effect it are being made. In 2015, fifty percent of GDP was generated by the financial services sector in China while infrastructure expenditure increased by ten percent.

Al-Mazaya Holdings Weekly Real-Estate Report fears that should the Chinese economy continue to struggle, the global economy in 2016 could go down a hole deeper than that encountered in 2008. The Chinese economy has become a mainstay of global financial stability and wealth creation. It is the world’s second largest importer of oil, importing more than six million barrels per day. Only America imports more. The ramifications for the global economy of depressed oil prices may not be obvious, but they are real.

Another economic issue to worry governments the world over is the dollar volatility we have seen over the course of the last year, and the consequent exchange rate volatility for various currencies against the dollar. The temptation for the American Federal Bank to hike interest rates as a safeguard against negative Chinese data grows by the day, but doing so carries significant risk.

Al-Mazaya Holdings Weekly Real-Estate Report points out that America is under pressure to reduce Chinese exports in light of the weakening yuan. After the 2008 financial crisis, America requested that the Chinese government strengthen the yuan to support America’s export trade, but today the Chinese government no longer has this option and is instead trying to artificially support a currency that, one suspects, would plunge if left to its own devices. In fact, it could be argued that China would be better off for the long-term if it allowed its currency to weaken, thus more accurately reflecting domestic economic reality. Today, Chinese exporters are being undercut by Asian competitors thanks to the artificial strength of the yuan.

However, Al-Mazaya Holdings Weekly Real-Estate Report does not anticipate any imminent relaxation of the measures that have been put in place to support the yuan, not least because doing so would have a domino effect throughout Asian markets – effectively, a currency war – that would serve no one, least of all Chinese companies half submerged in debt. Allowing the yuan to slide further would also undo immediately the work the Chinese government has taken in recent years to make it a major global reserve currency.

Over the last decade, we have seen a marked increase in Chinese investments overseas, particularly into manufacturing industries. Today, Chinese overseas investments are another reason that the global economy should be concerned about the country’s long-term economic viability. Chinese overseas investments are important creators of wealth and employment throughout the West and the Middle East. In 2015, alone, Chinese overseas investment totalled several billion dollars. Were these investments to be stopped, or sold, the repercussions for European, African, Arab and American economies would be seismic. Today, the Chinese government incentivises Chinese companies to penetrate foreign markets. Should this change, markets would quickly become spooked.

In recent years, we have seen much Chinese investment into Gulf markets. To date, China investment into the UAE economy exceeds AED200bn. The UAE is China’s largest export market in the Gulf and also its largest commercial partner in the region. In the last decade we have seen many initiatives from the UAE government to increase Chinese investment into Dubai and also to increase the sharing of knowledge.

Saudi Arabia, too, has benefitted from Chinese investments – today China is the kingdom’s most valued commercial partner. At the end of 2014, mutual Saudi-China trade had reached some US$69bn. Currently, some 150 Chinese companies are active in Saudi, most focussed on the hydrocarbon sector.

Al-Mazaya Report concludes by stressing that Gulf states should look where possible to support the Chinese economy over the coming year given the interlinked nature of Chinese and Gulf businesses and also the dependence of several Gulf states on Chinese purchasing power, particularly in the oil markets. Chinese investments throughout the Gulf are important generators of wealth and employment opportunities – should Chinese investment into the region cease the effect would be widely felt.  It is the the interests of everyone, all over the world, that the Chinese economy recovers and continues to grow in 2016.

Gulf real estate sector will witness continued construction activity in 2016 due to accelerated financial and economic developments

With huge development witnessed in the regional real estate sector over the past few years, its role in many countries – mainly targeting investors and foreign investment – has become a key driver for setting the pace of economic activity and diversifying regional economies away from oil. Some additional roles include the levy of tax for countries from one financial period to another.

Foreign investment is often associated with inflation caused by foreign markets. It is often short-term investments that can spark fluctuations and losses, unless host countries manage these investments prudently and place adequate restrictions in place to lessen the severity of capital rapidly leaving the country.

It is Al Mazaya Holding Group’s opinion that 2016 will see decisions regarding qualitative investment in real estate and other sectors facilitated more easily. This is because real estate markets currently having an abundance of supply, with variations in demand categories. Therefore, regional markets need to target quality projects in order to ensure continued demand, with minimum fluctuations in prices and returns.

Consequently, economic efficiency and current stability and growth requirements of key sectors call for economic systems that are adaptable to market conditions and gross domestic product (GDP) – in all sectors. Focusing on highly productive and cost-effective projects, recoverability, productivity and contribution to GDP in the shortest possible time, will be the best solution for the region’s domestic economies. These factors will enable each market to resist pressure and ensure continuity and competition within the income-generating sectors and continue to attract foreign investment.

Al Mazaya Holding Company’s Weekly Real Estate Report is confident that the only constant in the accelerated financial and economic developments, in regional economies, is that the real estate sector – at the beginning of 2016 – is witnessing a continued increase in construction projects. These upward trends reflect a continued strength of current and projected demand and, depending on feasibility studies and market forecasts prior to implementation, will ensure the success of all real estate projects.

The improvement of the returns rate, particularly rental returns, will have a positive impact on the sector, taking into account the fact that the gradual decline, recorded in property prices in some markets, is no more than an expected correction. The Al Mazaya Report sees this as a healthy phenomenon that comes after the highs recorded in prices over the past two years. It is, therefore, expected that regional economies continue to maintain targets for economic activity during 2016.

Saudi Real Estate Market: Aspirations for an Active Role of the Private Sector

The Al Mazaya Report asserts that regional real estate markets must keep up to date with emerging changes in government decisions and the private sector’s ambitions, in a timely manner. Saudi real estate market indicators show that 2016 will benefit greatly from the decisions and direction of the Saudi government and the Kingdom’s burgeoning private sector.

Over the past year, the real estate market has benefitted from a raft of quality government-led decisions that will have a significant and positive impact on the real estate sector in the coming years – the imposition of fees on undeveloped land within urban areas being one such example.

The sector will also benefit from an improved level of partnership between the Ministry of Housing and the private sector for constructing housing projects, in all cities across the Kingdom. This partnership signals an improvement in the sector’s ability to attract domestic and foreign investments, marking the start of efforts to correct the market’s conditions and increase foreign private sector investment.

The foundations for a new real estate boom is possible if solving the dilemma faced by the housing market is matched with new real estate products that meet the various needs of the Kingdom’s citizens and residents. It is worth mentioning here that the project for the construction of 500,000 housing units, in KSA, is still in force, with the government having allocated SAR 250 billion to be spent over five years, from the start date of the project.

Meeting Demand for Residential Real Estate Units is a Priority

The Al Mazaya Report can state that the majority of markets in the region, in 2015, suffered from an oversupply of real estate products and yet, at the same time, there is also a shortage of supply in certain sectors. For example, there is a shortage of medium and basic real estate units while there currently is an abundant supply of luxury residential units and office properties.

The largest proportion of investment units that were handed over during 2014-2015 was in the Bahraini real estate market. The real estate situation in the island Kingdom remains very reassuring, especially in residential real estate and land, with land and housing projects increasingly geared to low-income people. It should be noted that the recent decline in the prevailing prices, ranging from 10 to 20 per cent, will only be for a limited period and 2016 will remain a sound investment period for Bahraini residential real estate.

Bahrain also has a need for large housing projects, a figure that currently stands at around 55,000 units. This level of demand reflects the need for residential land and the need of citizens to buy properties in view of the limited area of the Kingdom’s lands and its population growth. Quality projects, therefore, will help the kingdom to overcome such challenges in the coming years.

Focus on Foreign Investment in order to Face Liquidity Pressures in the Real Estate Market

The Al Mazaya Weekly Report stresses that the residential sector, in terms of selling and leasing, is a key sector among all of the region’s markets and it is the residential sector that continues to set the pace of activity and demand for other real estate products. This poses short-term challenges to the UAE real estate market, in terms of both maintaining and building upon recorded successes. Changes in the sources of demand and the rise in the supply of real estate units and products may also be affected by a potential recession.

While the available indices point to a projected correction in the sale and lease rates of real estate, particularly in the emirates of Dubai and Sharjah, leasing and selling rates remain on the rise in Abu Dhabi, with fluctuations ranging from 10-15 per cent – in both directions.

The UAE real estate market, for 2016, will benefit from a strategic “return to basics” to determine the sources of demand and allow clearer targeting plans when starting new projects. Such measures should prevent an over supply of units.

Circulating data suggests that the real estate market in the emirate of Abu Dhabi will witness the hand-over of a large number of real estate units during 2016. Predictions range from 12-15,000 units, compared to 10,000 units delivered in 2015.

Assigning a Greater Role to the Qatari Private Sector in order to Achieve National Development Goals

Qatari real estate market developments are reflected in the 2016 budget with a continuation of infrastructure spending; these include schools and hospital projects as well as residential housing.

Spending will, of course, support the real estate sector’s growth, which subsequently establishes an investment climate that is capable of attracting funds, taking into account the need to assign new or additional roles to the private sector.

It should be emphasised here that the clarity of the plans and goals in Qatar’s Development Roadmap 2022, also requires Qatari real estate development companies to set goals reflecting the development of the private sector’s capacity to deliver new investment sources.

The Qatari real estate sector currently includes projects under construction at a value of QAR 261 billion, with infrastructure, transportation, sport, electricity, water and other important sectors driving growth.

The Al Mazaya Report recognises the importance of the contribution of current and upcoming projects in finding radical solutions for the domestic real estate market in order to be able to target foreign investment in 2016.

Completed projects and those in the hand-over pipeline must succeed in overcoming all existing challenges and it will be necessary for regional real estate markets to find the tools and mechanisms to mitigate the flight of domestic capital towards global real estate markets. This can be achieved by improving the attractiveness of real estate products and greater coordination and partnership between the public and private sectors. This also involves encouraging more investment-friendly laws, maintaining financial and economic stability, as well as creating marketing and promotional tools and mechanisms that are more efficient and in line with the developments recorded in the financial and economic systems over the past year.

Al-Mazaya Report: Real-Estate Assets are Safe from Regional Tension in the Short-Term  

These are uncertain times for the global and regional economies. A number of factors make long-term forecasting difficult, and optimism seems in short supply. Certainly, there is much to keep governments, bankers and investors awake at night. How, for example, will the falling oil price affect markets? Which sectors are likely to suffer the most over the coming months, and which the least? Where can money be put to keep it secure? How will Gulf countries that rely on hydrocarbon revenues continue to finance infrastructure spending programs and keep expanding populations happy? And if populations become unhappy, might the result be conflict?

Al-Mazaya Holdings Weekly Real-Estate Report states that all sectors will be affected by the coming economic challenges to some degree, especially given the interconnectedness of Gulf economies, where investment, particularly into real estate, can come from any country in the region. The smart investors, we believe, will be those who are able to remain active in sectors that are best positioned to ride out the storm. We predict the Gulf real estate sector’s fortunes will be dependent on the impact of economic uncertainty on people’s savings and on their perception of Gulf countries as politically stable. For this reason, it goes without saying that conflict within the Gulf would have a deleterious affect upon regional real estate confidence, not least because it would see investors scatter, but also because the consequent sell off would exert considerable downward pressure on the market.

We expect to see some AED186bn invested into Gulf real estate developments to the end of the third quarter, 2016, demonstrating an underlying confidence in the market that strong returns are still possible, despite economic challenges. However, we believe investors over this same period will likely be able to negotiate a total AED78bn in discounts compared to the same period in 2015, a fact that illustrates starkly the imbalance between supply and demand in the market.

We forecast Dubai real estate will remain the most attractive real estate asset class in the Middle East, thanks to the emirate’s considerable infrastructure and the international breadth of its investor catchment area. We expect to see developments continue in Dubai for the coming months in the absence of negative economic news that is tangible, as opposed to speculative.

Turning our attention to Saudi Arabia, Al-Mazaya Holdings Weekly Real-Estate Report is not as pessimistic as some market analysts regarding the outlook for the country’s real estate sector. We believe that although the kingdom faces some significant challenges in maintaining government spending programs as a result of falls in the price of oil, it is better positioned than many observers realise to adjust to adverse conditions. Current geopolitical tensions with Iran do not overly concern us, given the limited size of Iranian investment in Saudi real estate – we estimate the total value of Iranian investment in Saudi real estate is not more than US$500m, compared to US$20bn in Dubai real estate.

It is worth pointing out that an escalation of Saudi/Iran tensions may have the effect of pushing up oil prices. But it might also see the Saudi Riyal’s peg to the US dollar come under pressure, a phenomenon that many countries that peg their currency to America’s are currently experiencing, not only in the Gulf. As a result, countries and institutions that have previously been comfortable with lending to Saudi Arabia may become more cautious. Certainly, such an eventuality would have negative ramifications for the real estate sector as liquidity dried up and the effects of the kingdom’s budget deficit were keenly felt.

Conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran would serve neither side well from an international investment perspective, at a time when both countries strive to attract FDI. Iran has only just seen sanctions lifted that have kept the international community away for decades and was it was expected the country would see an investment wave of some $25bn into the energy and mining sectors over the coming months. Conflict would likely see this investment evaporate, for the short and medium term, at least.

There are currently many pressures on Gulf real estate prices, not limited only to Saudi-Iran tensions and the declining oil price. While some markets in the Gulf might benefit from the tensions between Saudi and Iran, we expect the luxury end of the market throughout the Gulf to suffer, thanks to the enthusiasm of Saudi and Iranian investors to participate in this segment. For this reason, we believe the middle class/middle income segment of the market represents the best value for investors and offers the best long term stability. We expect workers to continue to earn in Gulf markets, and as a result expect to see little price or demand fluctuation in this segment.

Al-Mazaya Report concludes by stating that while there are good grounds for caution currently in the Gulf’s real estate markets, pessimism should not be overstated. Many other Gulf sectors continue to thrive, not least tourism, retail and industry, and we expect these engines of growth to power Gulf economies through whatever short-term challenges lie ahead.

World economy faces real challenge under interest rate fluctuations, fund and real estate sectors and growth trends 

Government resolutions are no longer the sole or leading influence on the actual and non-actual growth rates that world economies experience with development plans and strategies under execution, also contributing to economic boom or recession.

It is now becoming evident that more significant resolutions directly and indirectly influence the economies of countries, provoked by large players taking critical decisions related to: guiding their own economies, controlling growth trends, and eliminating inflation and recession.

Further, a large number of countries are not able to stop the aforementioned influences, positively or negatively, given that decisions are being taken that seemingly neglect the local economic trends, particular to each country.

Also evident is the fact that countries have different capacities for handling developments and directly estimating their positive or negative consequences. A major example, in this regard, is the decision taken in the last week by the US Federal Reserve[AC1] , to increase interest rates. On the face of it, this decision will allow flexibility and investment preferences that motivate capital movement towards the US economy. However, this will cause a wider, more negative impact on the world economy as a whole.

As such, Al-Mazaya Holdings Weekly Real-Estate Report stresses on the current requirement for quality and influential decisions since the world economy needs to face a real and direct challenge to define its real strength and actual growth rates, materialising since 2008.

Development plans and strategies, in the coming years, need to be amended in direct relation to the results of the actual challenge, with consideration for the fact that each country should adopt financial and economic decisions that aim to maximise the benefit of increased interest rates on the US financial system and eliminating the negative consequences on their economies.

The US increasing its interest rates does not necessitate that each country with a currency pegged to the USD should increase its own domestic interest rates, in parallel with any US decision. This is true, especially, when you consider that many countries do not enjoy the near zero-interest rate prevailing in the US system.

Taking the decision to amend interest rates from previous levels may burden the economies of a large number of countries with financial liabilities and new deficits, without yielding any positive results on any other area. Therefore, preventive measures and piecemeal decisions should be planned related to the amount of impact on financial and economic sectors, as well as the interrelatedness between the US economy and the rest of world’s financial systems.

As to the effect of the recent interest rate rise on real estate and financial sectors within the US on other world economies, this Al-Mazaya Report concludes that it will not cause changes to all kinds of interests as the effect will be centered around short-term interest as financial market funds return. While the effect is not largely seen on long-term real estate mortgage rates and interest on consumable loans, such effects are thought to be centred on the interest rates of credit cards.

It should be equally noted here that tangible changes on interest rates offered to clients, based on the credit status of the loan applicant, are still awaited, with less reliable applicants set to bear higher interest rates – due to the associated higher risks on repayments. The same will apply on companies and governments seeking finance by issuing or selling treasury bonds. On the other hand, these implications will be positive to depositors, in the short-term, as returns on deposits, financial exchange markets and treasury bills will increase, after what has been a relatively long-term overall decrease.

The Bond markets will experience a variety of negative implications affected by higher interest rates and anticipations of increasing inflation. For stocks, it is slightly different: higher interest rates means economic growth, causing extra profits and returns for companies. In such conditions, this usually leads to a general increase on stock prices.

The Al-Mazaya Report refers to multiple pros and cons of raising interest rates in the US on other countries’ economies. The decision requires further study and evaluation on growth and regression of employment rates since higher interest rates correspond to higher employment and flexible wages, adapting to the surrounding business environment.

Inflation plays a significant role in this regard as well, where central bank estimates revolve around consumer indexes, personal consumption, goods and services indexes. Therefore, when the Consumer Price Index is higher than the target level, increasing the interest rate will negatively impact other economic indices.

Speaking of the correlation between world markets and signs of instability reflected in the world economy, taking as a starting point the recent global financial crises and the increasing elasticity of world financial markets, the increase on interest rates to the current levels will impose new burdens on many countries.

As for the USD rate, increased interest will negatively impact the USD exchange rate and, therefore, negatively impact on NET exports. The increase of USD rate will reduce the demand on US goods because of their higher costs. As such, higher interest rates will impact the exchange rates of the currencies of many other developing countries, reducing their rates – the Chinese Yuan for example.

The USD will also create a strong barrier limiting the growth of developing countries in this regard urging capital to migrate to the US via investments in stock and real estate markets. Ultimately, this will impose additional pressure on these countries while they seek to provide stability and growth within the international economy as a whole.

The Al-Mazaya Report also refers to the parallel increase of interest rates in Saudi Arabia, provoked by the US Federal Reserve[AC2]  interest rate increase. As the Kingdom mostly depends on oil revenues, which have seen an almost halving of the cost per barrel in recent years, Saudi Arabia has maintained its expansionist monetary policy during 2014 and 2015. This is a trend that is now under revision, in light of deceasing oil prices and the US Federal Bank increasing interest rates causing economic draw back.

A tighter monetary policy under higher interest rates with the SR linked to USD is, therefore, not feasible in the long-term. In the same context, the tighter financial resolutions will directly affect long-term finance costs and real estate purchase rates, since interest constitutes a major portion of real estate loans. This fact will simultaneously affect citizens’ solvency and trends to purchase convenient real estate. This will ultimately have a negative affect on the Kingdom’s real-estate market.

The Al-Mazaya Report would also point to the fact that the same implications may take place at other markets where local currencies are pegged to the USD.

Based on the most recent updates, the Al-Mazaya Report stresses that developing countries will face additional pressures which will lead to more fluctuations in world markets. The upturns in their economies creates fear against investors turning to purchase USD. The negative effects will multiply in young markets, based on World Bank’s statements, if cash flows are being redirected towards US assets, which will most probably cause economic instability if capitals rapidly migrate.

Four GCC banks have raised their interest rates in response to the US Federal Bank’s decision to raise US interest rates. These include Saudi Arabian, Kuwaiti, Bahraini and UAE banks.

التقرير العقاري الأسبوعي لشركة المزايا القابضة

تقرير المزايا: الموازنات التوسعية ستقود القطاع العقاري لتحقيق المزيد من الانجازات في العام 2018

السعودية تخصص 50 مليار ريال لقطاع الإسكان

204 مليار درهم قيمة التصرفات العقارية في دبي خلال التسعة أشهر الأولى من العام الحالي

اثبتت المسارات النهائية التي اظهرها القطاع العقاري لدول المنطقة مع نهاية العام 2017 قدرته على مواجهة التحديات والتأقلم مع التطورات المتلاحقة التي تسجلها أسواق النفط وأسواق المال العالمية، بالإضافة إلى التطورات الجيوسياسية التي تمر بها بعض دول المنطقة.

بالتالي فإن النظرة العامة لأداء الأسواق العقارية يمكن وصفها بالمستقرة والقادرة على توليد العوائد على الرغم من التراجعات التي سجلتها أسعار التأجير لكافة المنتجات العقارية والانخفاضات المسجلة على قيم المبايعات والتصرفات العقارية بشكل عام نتيجة تراجع القيمة الإجمالية للسيولة الاستثمارية التي تم ضخها لدى شرايين الاقتصادات المحلية، والتي تستهدف الاستثمار متوسط وطويل الاجل.

في المقابل فإن المؤشرات التي عكستها الموازنات التي تم اعتمادها تعكس حقيقية مفادها مواصلة دول المنطقة على الانفاق التوسعي واستهداف كافة القطاعات وتحفيزها وفق منظور الاولويات وكفاءة المشروعات، الامر الذي يحمل معه مؤشرات إيجابية على قدرة القطاع الخاص على المضي قدماً في تنفيذ المشاريع الحالية والدخول في مشاريع عقارية واستثمارية جديدة لا تقل أهمية عن غيرها على مستوى العائد وعلى مستوى مساهمتها بالناتج المحلي الاجمالي المتراكم خلال السنوات القادمة.

واشار التقرير العقاري الأسبوعي لشركة المزايا القابضة إلى أن الأسواق العقارية لدى دول المنطقة واجهت العديد من التحديات والتي جاءت نتيجة للضغوط التي تواجهها الميزانيات العامة، ومستوى الكفاءة الاقتصادية ضمن منظور المخاطر والسيولة، الأمر الذي كان له تأثير مباشر على فرص الاستثمار الجيدة التي تم توفيرها من إجمالي الحراك.

وكان للخطط والتوقعات الحيز الاكثر من إجمالي المشهد الاستثماري على كافة القطاعات على حساب الانجازات الحقيقية النهائية، ذلك أن الجهات الرسمية انصب تركيزها على خطط رفع الدعم وتحرير الأسعار والاتجاه نحو اعتماد تطبيق الضرائب، وذلك للسيطرة على العجوزات التي فرضتها تراجع عوائد النفط والتي استمر تأثيرها على مدار العام.

ولم تشهد أسواق المنطقة دخول المزيد من المشروعات العقارية الضخمة والتي انحسرت عناوينها ومضامينها، في حين شهدت اسواق الاصدارات الاولية المزيد من الاكتتابات، والثابت الوحيد ضمن المعادلات المعقدة كثرة التوقعات بتحقيق نتائج أفضل في المستقبل كون الانجازات المحققة بقيت أكثر تواضعا على أمل أن يحمل العام القادم المزيد من الانجازات والنتائج الملموسة.

وعلى الرغم من مؤشرات التراجع المسجلة على قيم المبايعات العقارية لدى سوق دبي العقاري، والذي يعتبر الانشط على مستوى الدولة والمنطقة ليسجل تراجعاً بنسبة 23% خلال الربع الثاني من العام الحالي مقارنة مع المستوى المسجل خلال الربع الاول. واستطاعت السوق العقارية من تنفيذ تصرفات عقارية بقيمة اجمالية وصلت إلى 204 مليار ريال خلال التسعة أشهر من العام الحالي، حيث تعكس هذه المؤشرات استمرار الجاذبية والحفاظ على مستويات سيولة جيدة على مبايعات الاراضي والمباني والوحدات السكنية، وتعكس ايضا قدرتها على جذب واستقطاب المزيد من الفئات وشرائح المستثمرين على المستوى المحلي والاقليمي والعالمي.

وأشار تقرير المزايا إلى أن التوقعات التي تحيط بأداء القطاع العقاري خلال العام 2018، تظهر قدرة السوق الاماراتي ككل على الاستقرار وتحقيق معدلات نمو جيدة على العديد من القطاعات نتيجة ارتفاع مستويات الانفاق واعتماد موازنات توسعية للعام القادم، وفي الإطار ساهم الانخفاض المسجل على أسعار الوحدات السكنية والفلل بتحفيز المستخدم النهائي من الاتجاه نحو الامتلاك بدلا من الايجار، ويتوقع أن يستمر هذا الاتجاه مع توقعات بتسجيل انخفاض اضافي على الاسعار المتداولة خلال الربع الاول من العام 2018.

وعلى صعيد السوق العقارية السعودية، فمنذ السنوات الثلاثة الماضية تشهد السوق مسارات التصحيح السعري على كافة المنتجات، وفي مقدمتها أسعار الاراضي السكنية، حيث اظهرت مستويات السيولة تسجيل قيم متدنية لتتراجع القيمة الاجمالية للتعاملات العقارية على أساس أسبوعي خلال العام الحالي وتستقر عند 4.3 مليار ريال، وبنسبة انخفاض بلغت 21% مقارنة بالمتوسط الاسبوعي للعام 2016، والتي بقيت عند 5.4 مليار ريال. فيما سجل مؤشر الاسعار قصيرة الاجل خلال العام الحالي مسارات تراجع ملموسة على أسعار الاراضي والعقارات السكنية مقارنة بنفس الفترة من العام الماضي.

وشدد تقرير المزايا على أن الموازنة العامة التي تم اعتمادها مؤخراً هي موازنة توسعية بامتياز، وسيكون السوق والقطاع العقاري في مقدمة المستفيدين من حجم السيولة التي تستهدف تحفيز الاستثمارات وتحفيز مشاريع القطاع الخاص وتعزيز قيم السيولة المتداولة، وتشير البيانات المتداولة إلى تخصيص 50 مليار ريال على قطاع الإسكان، حيث سيتم توجيه نسبة كبيرة من الانفاق للقطاع السكني لرفع نسبة تملك المواطنين للمساكن والتي تأتي ضمن توقعات بتحقيق معدل نمو اقتصادي بنسبة 2.7% ونمو القطاع غير النفطي بنسبة 3.7%.

وأكد تقرير المزايا على أنه ومع الاستمرار في طرح مشاريع الاسكان الميسر وتنوع خيارات التمويل وتوفر معلومات شاملة عن السوق العقاري من شأنه أن يحفز السوق خلال الفترة القادمة وتدفع الاسعار نحو العدالة والطلب نحو النمو.

وأشار التقرير إلى طبيعة المسارات التي سجلتها الاسواق العقارية لدى دول المنطقة والتي تراجعت نتيجة تراجع قيم السيولة وارتفعت نتيجة طرح مشاريع جيدة وذات جدوى اقتصادية وعوائد مرتفعة في ظل استعداد قنوات التمويل من توفير التمويلات التي تتناسب وكافة الشرائح والمنتجات. في المقابل فقد سيطرت القرارات المالية والاقتصادية والخطط طويلة الاجل خلال العام 2017 والتي لم تبدأ النتائج الايجابية أو السلبية لتلك المشاريع بالظهور بعد.

وكان نصيب القطاع العقاري القليل من خطط التحفيز والكثير من القرارات التي تحمل ضغوط مباشرة على أداء القطاع ونموه، وفي الإطار فإن ازدحام اقتصادات المنطقة بقوائم الاصدارات الاولية واستقرار اسواق النفط وأسعارها عند مستويات داعمة للسيطرة على العجوزات المتراكمة على الموازنات تمهيدا لتسويتها سيكون له تأثيرات مباشرة على رفع وتيرة النشاط الاقتصادي وسيولة القطاع العقاري وستمهد الطريق للدخول في مشاريع عقارية وغير عقارية جديدة.

وقال التقرير أن القطاع السياحي سيحافظ على نشاطه ووتيرة نشاطه التوسعي خلال العام 2018 على الرغم من الضغوط المحيطة، فيما يتوقع لخطط التنمية والتحول ان تساهم في الحفاظ على قيم الاصول والاستثمارات القائمة وجذب المزيد من الاستثمارات.

ووفقاً لتقرير المزايا فإن الحراك المالي والاقتصادي لن يتوقف وان القدرة على تحقيق قفزات اقتصادية نوعية باتت تعتمد على تحقيق الاستقرار المالي والاقتصادي وتطوير مناخات الاستثمار للحفاظ على الاصول والمشاريع القائمة، ويبدو أن النتائج التي تحققها القطاعات غير النفطية باتت مبشرة إلى حد كبير، حيث استطاع القطاع غير النفطي الاماراتي من تحقيق ارتفاع بنسبة 3% خلال العام الحالي مقارنة بـ 2.7% خلال العام 2016، في المقابل يبدو التقارب الاستثنائي الاماراتي السعودية قادر على تحقيق إنجازات اقتصادية كبيرة خلال الاعوام القادمة، في ظل حجم تبادل تجاري يعتبر الاكبر على مستوى المنطقة، وتعد الامارات أهم الشركاء التجاريين للمملكة بحجم تبادل تجاري بلغ 73 مليار ريال في نهاية العام 2016، في حين تتجاوز الاستثمارات السعودية في الامارات 35 مليار درهم.

واختتم تقرير المزايا بالقول أن استمرار ضخ السيولة الاستثمارية لدى شرايين الاقتصاد والمضي قدما بتنفيذ خطط البنية التحتية من شأنه أن ينعكس إيجابا على الاداء المالي لشركات القطاع الخاص والاقتصاد ككل، بالإضافة إلى قدرتها على التخفيف من التأثيرات السلبية التي ستحملها الضرائب الاضافية التي سيجري تطبيقها في بداية العام القادمة إذا ما تواصل التراجع والركود على عدد كبير من القطاعات الرئيسية، ونوه التقرير إلى أن الانظار تتجه خلال العام القادم نحو قدرة القطاع الخاص على إحداث تغيير على الاداء الاقتصادي العام انسجاماً مع ما تقوم به الحكومات من خطط تحفيز، وبالتالي فإن تكامل الأداء المالي والاقتصادي ضمن منظور موحد من شأنه أن يساهم في تحقيق كافة الخطط وتحقيق كافة الأهداف التنموية والاستثمارية متوسطة وطويلة الاجل.

التقرير العقاري الأسبوعي لشركة المزايا القابضة

عوامل الاستقرار والنمو تعد المحرك الرئيس لقرارات الاستثمار العقاري على المستويين المحلي والخارجي

بريطانيا وألماني وتركيا تتصدر مشهد الجذب الاستثماري العقاري العالمي

العقار التركي يستحوذ على ما نسبته 20% من إجمالي الناتج المحلي وارتفاع بنسبة 0.5% على أساس شهري في بريطانيا

 

تعد عملية إيجاد البدائل الاستثمارية الجيدة ضمن مختلف الأسواق عملية صعبة وخاصة في ظروف التراجع والركود الاقتصادي، كما تبدو المفاضلة بين الفرص واختيار الافضل أكثر صعوبة ضمن مختلف القطاعات.

ومع تركز استثمارات الأفراد والمؤسسات العابرة للحدود على القطاع العقاري، المتمثلة بشراء الوحدات السكنية، إلى جانب الاستثمار في أي من الفرص التي يوفرها القطاع السياحي أو الاستثمار لدى أسواق المال حول العالم، وغيرها من القطاعات، فإن هذه الاستثمارات المباشرة باتت تخضع لحزمة من العوامل تحدد حجمها وتركزها والمدد الزمنية لها على الصعيدين المحلي والخارجي، الأمر الذي يحمل معه الكثير من التحديات لدى مواقع الاستثمار المختلفة مع احتدام المنافسة بين الاسواق والدول على جذب الاستثمارات الخارجية في الوقت الحالي.

وأشار التقرير العقاري الأسبوعي لشركة المزايا القابضة إلى أن عوامل التحفيز والجاذبية للأسواق وفرص الاستثمار تبدو أكثر تركيزاً على القطاع العقاري، والتي باتت تعتمد على مجموعة من العوامل لنموها وتحفيزها واستقرارها، يأتي في مقدمتها سهولة اتخاذ القرار وبخاصة لدى شريحة المستثمرين الأفراد، إلى جانب سهولة إيجاد وتحديد الفرص الاستثمارية ضمن القطاع العقاري بالمقارنة مع القطاعات الأخرى والتي تتطلب فهماً عميقاً ودراية خاصة بآلياتها.

وساهم الحصول على التمويل اللازم للاستثمار العقاري في نمو هذا التوجه والمقرون بمقدرة اكبر على تحقيق نمو رأس المال المستثمر وضمان التدفقات النقدية من خلال التأجير أو حتى تحقيق أرباح رأسمالية ناتجة عن ارتفاع أسعار العقار عند البيع.

ويقول تقرير المزايا، أن الاستثمار العقار يعطي كلا طرفي العملية العقارية مساحة أكبر للتفاوض على السعر النهائي وسهولة في نقل ملكية العقار، والاستفادة من التغيرات والتطورات التي تشهدها مدينة أو دولة العقار نفسه.

وأشار التقرير إلى أن القدرة على تحديد واختيار أسواق الاستثمار العقاري وتحديد الفرصة الافضل على مستوى السوق نفسه تتأثر بحالة عدم الاستقرار التي تسجلها الأسواق المستهدفة، بالإضافة إلى ما تشهده من تسجيل ارتفاعات سعرية حادة غير متوقعة، فيما بات التطور المسجل على التشريعات والقوانين أكثر تعقيداً وأكثر تحفيزاً للمنافسة بين الأسواق.

وتطرق تقرير المزايا إلى السوق العقاري التركي والذي يعد المحرك الاساسي لبنية الاقتصاد بشكل عام، حيث يستحوذ على ما نسبته 20% من إجمالي الناتج المحلي التركي، ويعتبر أحد أهم القطاعات الحامية للاقتصاد في مواجهة الازمات المحلية، إلى جانب ما يتمتع به من جاذبية استثمارية تعد ببيئة خصبة ومربحة بشكل تصاعدي ومستقرة قادرة على استيعاب عدد كبير من المستثمرين.

من ناحية ثانية، سجل القطاع العقاري البريطاني خلال العام الحالي ارتفاعاً واضحاً على نطاقات التذبذب والتباين السعري نتيجة لأسباب كثيرة، وعلى الرغم من الجاذبية الاستثمارية والطلب الخارجي المرتفع الذي يتمتع به، فقد سجل السوق العقاري البريطاني نسبة انخفاض على أسعار العقارات السكنية بنسبة وصلت إلى 30% خلال السنوات الثلاثة الماضية، رافقت تسجيل انخفاضات حادة على الجنيه الاسترليني والتصويت للخروج من الاتحاد الاوروبي، وبالتالي فإن الوقت يعتبر مثاليا بالنسبة للمستثمرين الاجانب للدخول، في المقابل وكنتيجة طبيعية لوتيرة النشاط التي يسجلها السوق العقاري فقد شهدت أسعار المساكن ارتفاعا فاق التوقعات خلال نوفمبر الماضي لترتفع بنسبة 0.5% على أساس شهري مقارنة بنسبة ارتفاع 0.3% خلال أكتوبر وبنسبة 3.9% على أساس سنوي خلال الاشهر الثلاثة حتى نوفمبر.

وفي الإطار يقول تقرير المزايا، أن الانفتاح الألماني لجذب الاستثمارات الخارجية سيتقلص مع ارتفاع الجاذبية للاستثمار في القطاعات الاقتصادية الالمانية من قبل العديد من الشركات والدول وبشكل خاص من الصين، وبالتالي فإن الاستثمارات الخارجية على القطاعات الاستراتيجية مثل شبكات الكهرباء ومحطات الطاقة النووية وشبكات المياه والاتصالات والمطارات باتت تخضع للتحقق من قبل الجهات الرسمية.

والجدير ذكره هنا أن السوق العقاري الألماني يتمتع بدرجة استقرار كبيرة وعوائد جيدة وطلب تأجيري مرتفع ويحتل المرتبة الثانية على مستوى النشاط والنمو بعد السوق البريطاني، في حين يستطيع المستثمر الخارجي من التملك بنسبة 100%، بالإضافة إلى سهولة الحصول على التمويل وتحقيق نسب نمو تتراوح بين 4% إلى 10%، ويعد بعوائد سنوية مستقرة تصل إلى 5% نتيجة لارتفاع نسب الاشغال وارتفاع الطلب على استئجار المنازل والتي تعتبر فرصة كبيرة أمام المستثمرين الاجانب الراغبين في الشراء بغرض الاستثمار والحصول على عوائد جيدة ومستقرة.

ويقول تقرير المزايا الأسبوعي أن القفزات النوعية التي حققتها القطاعات الرئيسية في عدد من مدن ودول المنطقة على بعض القطاعات الاقتصادية خلال الفترة الماضية، قد انعكس تأثيرها بشكل واضح على المشاريع الانشائية، والتي جاوزت حاجز التريليون دولار، وتستعد لمشاريع وبنى تحتية وطرح آلاف الوحدات السكنية والاستثمارية والصناعية خلال الفترة القادمة، مع توفر خطط تحفيز مالية واقتصادية واستعدادات غير مسبوقة من قبل قنوات التمويل لتوفير السيولة اللازمة للمشاريع ذات الجدوى الاقتصادية الجيدة.

وينطوي الاستثمار العقاري لدى عدد من اسواق المنطقة على عوائد لا تقل عن 9% على أساس سنوي وأرباح رأسمالية ناتجة عن فروقات أسعار الشراء والبيع، وبالتالي فإن لدى الاسواق العقارية الإقليمية مقومات المنافسة مع الاسواق الخارجية على الرغم من التوترات وحالة عدد الاستقرار وتقلبات أسواق النفط وعوائدها، لا تزال تشكل الكثير من التحديات والعقبات أمام تعزيز قدرة هذه الاسواق من الاستحواذ على المزيد من الاستثمارات وتحقيق المزيد من النجاحات.

وشدد تقرير المزايا على أن الاسواق العقارية في اوروبا لازالت تتمتع بمزايا متعددة تمنحها الافضلية على المستوى العالمي، في ظل ما تتمتع به هذه الاسواق من استقرار على الاسعار وتسجيلها ارتفاعات جيدة مع الزمن، بالإضافة إلى ارتفاع عوائدها مستقبلا، فيما يسهم انخفاض المخاطر الاستثمارات العقارية نتيجة الاستقرار السياسي والمالي والاقتصادي في جذب المزيد من الاستثمارات العربية والأجنبية.

تقرير المزايا: نجاح خطط ومشاريع الاسكان المتوسط تعتمد على عمق الشراكة بين القطاعين الحكومي والخاص

أكثر من 3 تريليون دولار اجمالي المشاريع العقارية قيد الانشاء في دول الخليج

 

تتأثر عمليات الطلب على السلع والخدمات بحالات التقلب وعدم الاستقرار المالي والاقتصادي، نتيجة عدم استقرار الأسعار لهذه السلع والخدمات في ظل التقلبات السوقية وتسارع قوى العرض والطلب نتيجة لتسارع القرارات والخطط التي تستهدف إحداث تعديلات جوهرية على التدفقات النقدية على مستوى الكم والنوع في أي دولة أو منطقة ما.

وعند الحديث على المنتجات العقارية باختلاف أنواعها وشرائحها، نرى أن هناك طلباً أكثر استقراراً عند المستويات السعرية كافة، حيث تحظى كل شريحة منها بمصادر طلب خاصة تعمل في كثير من الاوقات والمواقع على تثبيت الأسعار بشكل أكثر منطقية. وكدليل على ذلك، فإن مشاريع الاسكان المتوسط تشهد حراكاً مستمراً على مستوى دول المنطقة والعالم في ظل كافة الظروف، وضمن مختلف حالات التقلب الاقتصادي، نتيجة لعوامل تتعلق بالتكلفة وسهولة التمويل والطلب المتزايد.

وتشهد المنتجات العقارية الأعلى مستوى، تقلبات على قوى العرض والطلب والأسعار السائدة كونها تتصل بمناخات الاستثمار ومستوى المخاطر السائدة والحوافز المقدمة لجذب الاستثمار والقوة الشرائية على مستوى الافراد والمؤسسات، إلا أن المستهلك النهائي لهذا المنتج العقاري متوافر باستمرار ولكن بالتأكيد بنسب أقل بالمقارنة مع مستهلك الإسكان المتوسط.

وأشار التقرير العقاري الأسبوعي لشركة المزايا القابضة، إلى أن المشاريع العقارية التي تستهدف شريحة الطلب المتوسط أصبحت أكثر تأثيراً على قرارات المستخدم النهائي لدى غالبية الاسواق العقارية، في ظل استمرار ضخ هذه المنتجات من قبل الجهات الحكومية والقطاع الخاص، وتشهد هذه الشريحة اهتماماً متزايداً من قبل كافة الاطراف وعلى الدوام.

حيث ترتبط مشاريع الإسكان المتوسط بالخطط الحكومية الرامية إلى توفير منتجات عقارية تتناسب وذوي الدخل المحدود والمنخفض، ومعالجة التحديات والعقبات التي تحول دون قدرة المواطن في امتلاك المنزل المناسب.

كما تتصل أهداف القطاع الخاص بهذه الشريحة في ظل توفر الفرص الاستثمارية الجيدة والطلب المرتفع في ظروف التراجع والانتعاش، إلى جانب معرفة كافة الأطراف إلى أن الجهات الرسمية سوف لن تكون قادرة على معالجة الطلب بالكامل، وبالتالي لابد من تدخل القطاع الخاص واستغلال الفرص الاستثمارية القائمة. وتمثل العلاقة القائمة بين الجهات الرسمية والقطاع الخاص اكثر التجارب نجاحاً في سبيل تطوير علاقة الشراكة والتعاون بين الطرفين وبما يساهم في تحسين وتيرة الاداء الاقتصادي وتحقيق معدلات نمو مرتفعة كونها تحمل مفاهيم التكامل في الاداء والنتائج.

ويقول تقرير المزايا أن لكل مشروع إيجابياته وسلبياته، ولكل توجه استثماري مخاطره وعوائده، وكذلك المشاريع العقارية ذات الاستهداف المتوسط، حيث أن ارتفاع أسعار الاراضي بشكل عام وعدم انخفاضها لعدة أسباب يشكل تحدياً أمام شركات التطوير العقاري لتقديم منتجات عقارية أكثر جاذبية على المستوى السعري، على عكس المشاريع الحكومية والتي تمتلك الأراضي.

كما تشكل تكاليف البناء عائقاً ايضاً كونها لا تفرق بين المشاريع العقارية المميزة والفاخرة والمتوسطة، إلى جانب هوامش الأرباح التي لابد لشركات التطوير العقاري من الحفاظ عليها لضمان ديمومة أعمالها واستمراريتها.

في المقابل يحظى الاستثمار في مشاريع الإسكان المتوسط بالكثير من المزايا، يأتي في مقدمتها مقدرتها على رفع مستوى المنافسة لدى الاسواق العقارية ونموه، كما توفر هذه المشاريع لشركات التطوير العقاري عوائد مرتفعة نظراً لاتساع شريحة المستهلك النهائي، وهناك استمرارية للطلب على هذا المنتج يأتي بديلاً وحلاً مثالياً لخيار التأجير.

وأشار تقرير المزايا إلى أن السوق العقاري الاماراتي شهد تركيزاً كبيراً على طرح الوحدات السكنية من الفئة الفاخرة خلال سنوات ماضية، في حين كان التركيز أقل على مشاريع الإسكان المتوسط، تسببت في حدوث حالة من الاختلال لدى السوق العقاري.

وتشير المصادر إلى أن الشريحة المستهدفة من ذوي الدخل المحدود والمنخفض تشكل ما نسبته 40% في السوق الاماراتي، وهي الفئة التي يتراوح سعر المتر المربع المستهدف لها ما بين 700 إلى 900 درهم على ألا يتجاوز سعر الوحدة الصغيرة 800 ألف درهم.

يأتي ذلك في الوقت الذي تلزم التشريعات الصادرة عن مجلس أبوظبي للتخطيط العمراني على سبيل المثال بتخصيص 20% من المساحة الاجمالية للمشاريع الكبيرة كمساكن للأفراد من ذوي الدخل المتوسط. حيث تهدف هذه التشريعات إلى توفير خيارات سكنية تلائم دخل المقيمين في إمارة أبوظبي.

وفي الإطار يرى تقرير المزايا أن السوق العقاري السعودي يعد سوق العقارات المتوسطة بامتياز، نتيجة سيطرة الفئة المتوسطة وذات الدخل المحدود على النسبة الاكبر من المجتمع في المملكة، في حين تبدو مؤشرات طلب الاستثمار الخارجي على مشاريع العقارات السكنية أقل من المستوى المطلوب نتيجة النظم والقوانين المعمول بها هناك.

ويقول تقرير المزايا أن الجهات الرسمية تسعى إلى عقد شراكات عالمية لبناء المزيد من المساكن بقيم استثمارية ستصل إلى 375 مليار ريال خلال السنوات الخمسة المقبلة، والتي تستهدف بالضرورة التخفيف من حالة الاختلال بين العرض والطلب على المساكن، فيما تنظر الجهات الرسمية بواقعية مع القطاع الخاص لتحقيق المزيد من الانجازات على هذا الصعيد.

ويتوقع أن تشهد السوق العقاري المزيد من مشاريع الاسكان المتوسط وزيادة نسب تملك المساكن للمواطنين بواقع 5% سنوياً عن مستواها الحالي البالغ 47%، واوضح تقرير المزايا أن توفر الاراضي السكنية اللازمة للمشروعات لازالت تشكل أكبر العقبات أمام القطاع العام والخاص وأن الحاجة إلى أن يلعب القطاع الخاص أدواراً متقدمة، بما فيها القطاع المصرفي، باتت أكثر الحاحا لإيجاد الحلول طويلة الأجل لقضايا توفير المساكن المتوسطة لذوي الدخل المنخفض خلال السنوات القادمة.

ويعتبر السوق العقاري البحريني سوقاً نشطاً على كافة المجالات التجارية والخدمية والصناعية، ويعد مستوى التشغيل الحالي المصدر الرئيسي للطلب على العقارات، فيما لم تغفل الجهات الرسمية توفير العقارات للمواطنين ودعم السوق العقاري والدخول في مزيد من الشراكات مع القطاع الخاص البحريني، لتتواصل المشاريع الاسكانية التي تستهدف ذوي الدخل المتوسط والمحدود والتي لازالت تمثل أولوية للجهات الرسمية والتي من شأنها أن تساهم في استقرار الاسرة البحرينية.

وتخصص المملكة ما قيمته 2 مليار دولار ضمن برنامج التنمية الخليجي لدعم المشاريع الاسكانية، حيث انعكس هذا البرنامج خلال الفترة الماضية إيجاباً على تسريع إنجاز المشاريع الاسكانية التي تلبي احتياجات المواطنين، وهناك آلاف الوحدات السكنية ضمن مرحلة التسليم وأخرى قيد التنفيذ في الوقت الحالي، الأمر الذي يقودنا إلى القول أن البحرين تنفذ خطط طويلة الاجل تحول دون تعرض السوق العقاري لاختلالات على قوى العرض والطلب في المستقبل.

وأكد تقرير المزايا أن الفترة القادمة ستشهد دخول آلاف الوحدات العقارية السكنية من مختلف الفئات ضمن دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي وتستهدف الاستثمارات الداخلية والخارجية، يأتي ذلك في ظل البيانات المتداولة والتي تشير إلى أن القيمة الاجمالية للمشاريع العقارية قيد الانشاء لدى الدول الخليجية تتجاوز 3 تريليون دولار.

واختتم تقرير المزايا بضرورة إيجاد قاعدة للتعاون بين القطاعين الحكومي والخاص في مجال توسيع أنشطة ومشاريع الاسكان المتوسط خلال الفترة القادمة، والتي من خلالها يمكن تجاوز التحديات التي تواجه عدداً من أسواق المنطقة في الوقت الحالي، كما أن عدم وجود تعاون مباشر بين الاطراف سيقود إلى فشل عملية التخطيط العمراني واستمرار اختلال قوى العرض والط

التقرير العقاري الأسبوعي لشركة المزايا القابضة

البنية التحتية للقطاع الصحي الخليجي باتت أكثر جاهزية للتنافس على المستويين الإقليمي والعالمي

الفرص الاستثمارية التي يوفرها القطاع الصحي السعودي تقدر بـ 266 مليار ريال سعودي

توقعات بتضاعف حجم القطاع الصحي الإماراتي بما يزيد عن 4 أضعاف حتى العام 2025

 

يحتل قطاع الرعاية الصحية ضمن دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي أهمية متزايدة من قبل القطاعين الحكومي والخاص، انعكست آثاره على واقع الاستثمار ضمن هذا القطاع الهام والحيوي، في وقت نشهد في تسارعاً وتنوعاً في الطلب على مختلف مكونات القطاع الصحي من قبل المواطنين والمقيمين.

وقال تقرير شركة المزايا القابضة الأسبوعي، أن حالة التطور التي يعيشها قطاع الرعاية الصحية، والذي تحول من تلبية الاحتياجات المحلية للمواطنين والمقيمين على مستوى المنطقة، إلى قطاع يمكن أن يسهم في رفع القدرات التشغيلية لعدد كبير من القطاعات الاقتصادية، ويسهم أيضا في نمو الدخل القومي الإجمالي، مع انتعاش قطاع السياحة العلاجية. الامر الذي جعل من الضروري الاتجاه نحو تطوير هذا القطاع والاستثمار فيه بشكل أكبر على المستويين الإقليمي والعالمي.

وأكد التقرير على أن الاقتصادات التي اعتمدت بشكل أكبر على القطاع الخاص بهذا المجال استطاعت تحقيق قفزات نوعية ملموسة، مكنها من احتلال مركزاً متقدماً على مقياس الجاذبية السياحية، وتحقيق معدلات نمو ملحوظة على قيم التشغيل والعوائد.

وتبدو الصورة أكثر وضوحاً عند الحديث عن النجاحات التي حققها القطاع الخاص في تطوير خدمات القطاع الصحي والارتقاء بها إلى مستويات عالمية خلال السنوات العشرة الماضية، فيما تبدو الصورة أكثر تحدياً عند الحديث عن المستوى الذي وصل إليه القطاع الصحي الحكومي والعقبات التي يواجهها في سبيل تطويره على الرغم من خطط التنمية الحكومية المتواصلة.

وقال تقرير المزايا أن المستوى الحالي للقطاع الصحي الحكومي لن يكون في موقع جيد بالمقارنة مع التركيز المسجل والتطوير النوعي الذي يقوم به القطاع الخاص، وعلى القطاع الحكومي العمل بشكل مكثف لرفع مستوى هذه الخدمات، آخذين بعين الاعتبار القدرات المالية للدول وحجم الاقتصاد ومستوى الديون الخارجية والقدرة على جذب الاستثمارات الخارجية ضمن هذا المجال، والتي بطبيعة الحال ستنعكس قيمها على تطوير قطاع الرعاية الصحية الحكومي وتلبية ما يتطلبه المواطنين على اختلاف شرائحهم.

بالتالي فإن الحديث عن الاتجاه نحو سيطرة كاملة للقطاع الخاص على قطاع الخدمات الصحية سيكون له تأثيرات سلبية على الطبقات الاقل دخلاً في المجتمعات، وما يحمله ذلك من تبعات اجتماعية من الصعب السيطرة عليها في المستقبل.

وتشير البيانات المتداولة إلى أن القطاع الصحي على مستوى دول المنطقة شهد تركيزاً استثمارياً منقطع النظير خلال السنوات القليلة الماضية، وبشكل خاص لدى دولة الامارات العربية المتحدة، فيما يتوقع أن يتضاعف حجم القطاع بما يزيد عن 4 أضعاف حتى العام 2025 وان يرتفع حجم الاستثمار ليصل إلى 125 مليار دولار. كما يتوقع أن يصل حجم الانفاق على الرعاية الصحية إلى 60 مليار دولار خلال نفس الفترة، يأتي ذلك في الوقت الذي شهد فيه القطاع تطوراً كبيراً على صعيد أنشطة البناء والتشييد نتيجة لتدفق المزيد من الاستثمارات المحلية والخارجية، الأمر الذي احدث نقلة نوعية على حجم القطاع الصحي ونوعية الخدمات المقدمة.

ومما يجدر ذكره هنا، أن للتصاميم المتقدمة وحلول البناء المتكاملة والمتخصصة التي ينفذها القائمين على القطاع في مجال تشييد المنشآت الصحية، والكوادر المؤهلة، والتقدم التكنولوجي، جميعها تصب في صالح تعزيز الاستثمارات وتقديم خدمات صحية استثنائية لكافة شرائح المجتمع المستهدف، في ظل التوسع السكاني، وانتشار الامراض ذات العلاقة بتطور أنماط الحياة، والقوانين والتشريعات التي باتت تلزم الحصول على التأمين الصحي للجميع.

ويقول تقرير المزايا أن خصخصة القطاع الصحي لدى المملكة العربية السعودية باتت ضرورة ملحة ومستحقة نظرا لحجم التحديات والعقبات، بالإضافة إلى حجم الطموحات والخطط الجاري تنفيذها، وبالتالي فإن الاعتماد على الجهات الحكومية لوحدها من شأنه مضاعفة التحديات والابقاء على القطاع في خطر وتعطيل مساهمته في الانشطة الاقتصادية ودعم التوجهات الجديدة.

وتظهر البيانات المتداولة إلى أن الفرص الاستثمارية التي يوفرها القطاع الصحي السعودي تقدر بـ 266 مليار ريال سعودي، يأتي ذلك في الوقت الذي يعد فيه تطوير القطاع الصحي من الاولويات الحكومية بالتوازي مع الاولوية التي تحظى بها مشاريع البنية التحتية، وذلك نتيجة الزيادة الكبيرة على أعداد السكان والذي يقدر بـ 31 مليون مواطن، وما إلى هنالك من تحسن دخل الفرد، الأمر الذي نتج عنه تزايد الاهتمام والطلب على الخدمات الصحية ذات الجودة العالية.

وأشار تقرير المزايا إلى أن التركيز في الوقت الحالي ينصب على زيادة عدد المستشفيات والمراكز الصحية بالإضافة إلى تطوير نوعي على الأجهزة والمعدات الطبية والمختبرات ومعاهد التدريب والتي تشكل مجتمعة فرصاً استثمارية استثنائية في سوق يحتاج إلى الكثير من التطوير والتحسين لتقديم الخدمات الطبية بالشكل منافس.

وتطرق تقرير المزايا إلى التطور المسجل على القطاع الصحي الاماراتي وما تضمنه من تطوير كبير على الخدمات المقدمة من القطاع الحكومي والخاص على حد سواء، وليس من المبالغة بشيء القول بأن القطاع الصحي الاماراتي وبالإمكانات القائمة والاستثمارات الضخمة يحتل المرتبة الاولى على مستوى المنطقة في هذا المجال، واصبح قادراً على التنافس على المستوى الدولي، حيث تشير البيانات المتداولة إلى أن القطاع سيحقق نسب نمو تصل إلى 12% بحلول العام 2020، فيما تتركز الجهود في الوقت الحالي على تحقيق النجاح في التحول من العلاج إلى الوقاية والوصول إلى قدرات كاملة لتأمين الافراد والممتلكات ضد المخاطر المتنوعة والتي في المحصلة ستصب في رفع كفاء واستقرار الاقتصاد الوطني.

وفي الإطار يقول تقرير المزايا أن قطاع الرعاية الصحية يحافظ على مكانته من الانفاق الحكومي خلال السنوات الأخيرة، وبنسب نمو تتناسب ومتطلبات الحفاظ على قطاع صحي كفؤ، واظهرت الميزانية الاتحادية للعام 2017 استحواذ القطاع على 4.2 مليار درهم وبنسبة 8.6% من إجمالي الموازنة وبـ 4.5 مليار للعام 2018 وبنسبة 7.6% من إجمالي الميزانية الاتحادية، فيما يقع القطاع في قلب الاجندة الوطنية لرؤية الامارات 2021 للوصول إلى نظام صحي يستند إلى أعلى المعايير العالمية.

وتحدث تقرير المزايا عن التحديات والفرص القائمة لدى القطاع الصحي البحريني في الوقت الحالي، حيث يخضع القطاع لمزيد من الخطط والتركيز الحكومي والخاص، حرصاً من كافة الاطراف على تطوير القطاع بشكل دائم ويتمتع بكلف تشغيلية مناسبة ومؤهلات وكفاءات قادرة على تقديم خدمات بمواصفات عالمية ليكون متماشيا وبشكل دائم مع التطور المسجل على المستوى العالمي في هذا الميدان، يأتي ذلك في الوقت الذي تتركز فيه الجهود إلى تعزيز التكامل في الخدمات الصحية بين القطاع العام والخاص من خلال تشجيع السياحة العلاجية، في حين تبدو القوانين والتشريعات أكثر مرونة وقادرة على استقطاب المشاريع الصحية الاجنبية ذات الكفاءة العالية من خلال الاستثمار المباشر والتي من شأنها أن تنعكس إيجابا على نوعية الخدمات الصحية التي يقدمها القطاع الصحي البحريني بشكل عام.

ونوه تقرير المزايا إلى أن قطاع الرعاية الصحية لدى دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي قد قطع شوطاً كبيراً باتجاه العالمية والتحديث والتطوير، ولايزال الطريق طويلاً لتحقيق التكامل والشمول على الخدمات الصحية والنجاح في خطط التحول من الرعاية إلى الوقاية، ومن ثم إلى تحول القطاع من قطاع خدمات صحية محلية إلى خدمات سياحية علاجية، تمكنه من استقطاب الاستثمارات أولا، ومن ثم استقطاب طالبي العلاج من كافة أنحاء العالم.

واختتم تقرير المزايا القول أن البنى التحتية لدى غالبية دول المنطقة قادرة على تطوير خدمات القطاع الصحي، في الوقت الذي يبدو فيه القطاع الفندقي (الضيافة) أكثر جاهزية لاستقبال أعداد كبيرة من السياح والزوار، إلى جانب ما يتمتع به القطاع العقاري من قدرة على التعامل مع كافة أنواع الطلب الحالي والمستقبلي، وبالطبع فإن الشراكة التامة بين القطاعين العام والخاص لازالت تحتاج إلى المزيد من الجهود والخطط والتعاون بين الطرفين لتحقيق التطوير المنشود وجذب الاستثمارات ورفع مساهمته من إجمالي الناتج القومي خلال السنوات القادمة.

بهدف إعادة هيكلة قوى العرض والطلب العقاري على مستوى الوطن العربي

دول المنطقة ترصد مئات المليارات لإنشاء عواصم ومدن جديدة لاستحداث مفهوم حديث لحل التحديات والإشكالات العقارية والكثافة السكانية التي تواجهها

 

يشهد القطاع العقاري على مستوى المنطقة والعالم الكثير من التطورات والأخبار والمشاريع ذات الطابع المميز والأهداف المبتكرة والاستهدافات الأوسع من قبل المستخدم النهائي يوماً بعد يوم، وذلك في ظل التطور المفاجئ الذي أظهر إنشاء عواصم ومدن جديدة في بعض دول المنطقة، الأمر الذي عمل على استحداث مفهوم جديد يلخص إمكانية تلك الدول من حل الكثير من التحديات والإشكالات العقارية والكثافة السكانية التي تواجهها.

وقالت شركة المزايا القابضة في تقريرها الأسبوعي إن دول المنطقة نجحت في وضع الحلول طويلة الأجل عبر التخطيط المستدام والاستحواذ على المزيد من الفرص والاستثمارات التي تبحث عن كل جديد وإيجابية، إضافة إلى أنها استطاعت من مجاراة التقدم وتطبيق مفاهيم المدن الذكية والتي أصبحت هدفاً أساسياً من قبل حكومات الدول المتقدمة التي باتت من خلالها تستقطب الاستثمارات والمستثمرين وتضمن الحصول على تدفقات مالية مستمرة.

وأضافت “المزايا” أن الدول أبدت استعدادها لبناء مدن بحجم عواصمها تكون استثمارية استثنائية، حيث أن كل دولة لديها إمكانيات وقدرات لتحقيق النتائج الإيجابية التي تتصل بمستقبل الرفاهية الاجتماعية والوصول إلى تنفيذ استباقي لمفاهيم المدن الذكية التي أصبحت تسيطر عليها التقنيات والتكنولوجيا الحديثة حتى تكون مميزة وقادرة على إحداث فرق على الثقافة المحلية ودمج المجتمعات فيما بينها.

ورأت “المزايا” أن هناك مخاوف من تحول مشاريع المدن الجديدة إلى مشاريع مكررة وبنفس نسب العشوائية والتعديل المتواصل، وذلك لأن استقرار الحكومات وخططها لا يمكن ضمان استمرارها، إضافة إلى أن التسارع المسجل على الخطط والتعديلات الجاري تنفيذها على القوانين والتشريعات لا يمكن التنبؤ فيها، الأمر الذي يضع المزيد من التساؤلات عن كيفية الوصول إلى الأهداف النهائية كما هو مخطط له.

وأشارت “المزايا” إلى أن البداية جاءت من إمارة دبي على مستوى الاتجاه نحو تطوير المدن القائمة ومن ثم طرح مشاريع المدن المتكاملة، والتي تتكون من أربعة قطاعات رئيسية، الأول يركز على السياحة العائلية والثاني يركز على قطاع التسوق والثالث يستهدف توفير بيئة جديدة ومتكاملة لريادة الأعمال والابتكار، فيما يركز الرابع على بناء منطقة متكاملة للمعارض وصالات العرض.

كما أن إمارة دبي الحالية سوف لن تكون قادرة على تلبية الطموحات المتنوعة خلال السنوات القادمة، وبالتالي لابد من البدء في تطوير مدن وعواصم جديدة لريادة الأعمال والابتكار والسياحة العائلية، حيث تشير البيانات المتداولة إلى أن عدد المسافرين عبر مطارات دبي سيصل إلى 90 مليون نسمة خلال السنوات الستة القادمة، وأن القطاع الفندقي يحقق نسب إشغال تتجاوز 90% في كثير من أوقات السنة.

وجاء الإعلان عن بناء عاصمة إدارية جديدة في مصر بمثابة تكملة لما بدأته بعض الدول الخليجية وليكون محطة جديدة لإعادة هيكلة العاصمة القديمة وإعادة توجيه العرض والطلب والاستثمار في العاصمة الجديدة، حيث تشير البيانات المتداولة إلى أن التكلفة الأولية للعاصمة الإدارية الجديدة سيبلغ 45 مليار دولار، ويستغرق بنائها حوالي 7 سنوات وستتسع إلى 5 ملايين نسمة.

وبينت “المزايا” أن الهدف الأساسي جاء مغايراً لأهداف المدن الأخرى، حيث تستهدف هذه العاصمة تخفيف الازدحام عن العاصمة الحالية وانعاش الاقتصاد المصري، وتوفير ما يزيد عن مليون فرصة عمل، يأتي ذلك في ظل التوقعات بأن يتضاعف عدد سكان القاهرة خلال الأربعين عام القادمة عن مستواها الحالي البالغ 8 مليون نسمة، حيث من المفترض أن تضم العاصمة الجديدة المقرات الحكومية ومقر البرلمان والوزارات والسفارات الأجنبية، بالإضافة إلى مواقع خاصة بالمعارض ومنشآت إدارية ومناطق سكنية.

وأوضحت “المزايا” أن المملكة العربية السعودية أعلنت عن بناء مدينة نيوم كمدينة عصرية، حيث سيكون لهذا المشروع تشريعاته وأنظمته الخاصة ويحاكي المستقبل على كافة الأنشطة والمستويات، كما أنه يمتد على طول 468 كيلو متر، ويربط بين آسيا وإفريقيا وبمساحة إجمالية ستصل إلى 26.5 ألف كيلو متر مربع وبكلفة متوقعة ستصل إلى 500 مليار دولار، فيما تشير التوقعات إلى أن 70% من سكان العالم سيتمكنوا من الوصول إليها خلال وقت قصير من الزمن.

كما أن الهدف من إنشاء هذا المشروع في السعودية جاء مغايراً بعض الشيء عن مثيلاتها، كونه يستهدف بناء منطقة استثمارية تستهدف 9 قطاعات في الأساس، وهي: قطاع الطاقة والمياه والنقل والتقنيات الرقمية وقطاع الغذاء والتصنيع والإعلام والسياحة، فيما سيكون الهدف العام من وراءه بناء أحد أهم العواصم الاقتصادية والعلمية العالمية دون إغفال للتصاميم التنافسية التي يمكنها من التفوق على المدن العالمية الكبرى على مستوى النمط المعيشي والفرص الاقتصادية الفريدة، وما ستتمتع به من حلول ذكية للمواصلات والتنقل والرعاية الصحية وشبكات الإنترنت ومنازل خالية من الكربون.

في الإطار فقد طرحت مؤخراً المملكة الأردنية الهاشمية فكرة إنشاء عاصمة جديدة خارج حدود العاصمة الحالية والتي يتوقع لها أن تكتمل بحلول العام 2050، حيث تستهدف هذه المدينة تقديم نوعية حياة أفضل للمواطنين واستيعاب جزء كبير من التوسع العمراني للمدن الرئيسية وتوفير بدائل مناسبة للمواطنين على مستوى السكن والمعيشة وبأسعار معقولة.

ويتوقع أن تعمل العاصمة الجديدة الأردنية على مواجهة تحديات توفير خدمات عامة متطورة وتخفيف الضغط والاكتظاظ الحالي وتحفيز النمو الاقتصادي، كونها تقوم على أساس التخطيط طويل الأجل وفتح آفاق تنموية جديد للمستقبل.

وأكدت “المزايا” على أن مشاريع المدن التي تم الإعلان عنها ولم يتم البد بتنفيذ غالبيتها تظهر أهمية النشاطات العقارية في إيجاد الحلول المالية والاقتصادية لاقتصادات المنطقة، وتوفر فرص عمل وتنوع اقتصادي وجذب استثماري مستمر، فيما تكشف هذه المشاريع حجم التحديات والحلول المطلوبة وبشكل عاجل، حيث تشير الأرقام والخطط إلى أن هذه المشاريع قد تفوق القدرات المالية لبعض الدول ويصعب القيام بتنفيذها بشكل منفرد.

واختتمت “المزايا” تقريرها بأن على الدول صاحبة هذه المشاريع العملاقة أن تتجاوز الكثير من التحديات والعقبات القائمة على الصعيد المالي والإداري وعلى مستوى الاستقرار السياسي وتوفير كافة المصادر المالية والاعتماد على معايير عالمية للقيمة المضافة وعمل دراسات جدوى تضمن النتائج والعوائد المستهدفة بعيدة المدى حتى تتمكن من البدء بالتنفيذ والوصول إلى الأهداف الموضوعة على المستوى المحلي بشكل خاص بكفاء عالية.

التقرير العقاري الأسبوعي لشركة المزايا القابضة

دول المنطقة تثبت قدرتها على إيجاد ظروف مناسبة لتوسيع استثماراتها لتلبية احتياجات جميع فئات المجتمع

الإمارات تتصدر الدول العربية في الاستحواذ على تدفقات الاستثمار الأجنبي بواقع 9 مليار دولار خلال العام 2016، تلتها مصر بقيمة 8 مليار دولار، والسعودية بقيمة 7.5 مليار دولار

أثبتت عدد من دول المنطقة خلال الفترة الماضية تمكنها من إيجاد ظروف مناسبة لتطوير قدراتها الاستثمارية على المستوى الداخلي، وتعظيم الأصول ولفت الانتباه على الأنشطة المالية والاقتصادية والتنظيمية القائمة، وذلك لتوسيع فرص الاستثمار وتنويعها لتلبية احتياجات وأهداف أكبر شريحة من المجتمع المحلي والإقليمي، فضلاً عن أن أدوات الاستثمار تطورت في المرحلة الحالية باتجاه جذب الاستثمارات الخارجية والتي تتطلب غالباً مناخات وظروف أكثر كفاءة وتنظيم.

وقالت شركة المزايا القابضة في تقريرها الأسبوعي إن دول المنطقة ركزت مؤخراً على كل ما يتعلق بجذب الاستثمارات وتحسين قيم السيولة المتداولة، وذلك نتيجة انخفاض قيم السيولة والعوائد القادمة من بيع النفط، إضافة إلى أن الجهود ما زالت متواصلة من قبل جميع الأطراف لتحقيق هذه الأهداف مجتمعة ومنفردة، لتجاوز كافة العقبات والتحديات القائمة، وتحقيق التنويع المطلوب والتوزيع العادل للمصادر والفرص.

وأشارت “المزايا” إلى أنه على الرغم من تشابه الخطط والمشاريع والأهداف في اقتصادات دول المنطقة والمحيط، إلا أنها قد تكون قادرة على النجاح والنمو في الظروف المشابه إذا توفرت عوامل النجاح التي في مقدمتها توفر مصادر الطلب المحلي واقتناص الفرص بين فترة مالية وأخرى، وبين تطور مالي واقتصادي خلال الفترة القادمة، حيث شكلت الاستثمارات الفردية النواة الأساسية في تطوير فكرة الاستثمار عبر الحدود لدول المنطقة، واستطاعت الأسواق العقارية الإماراتية على سبيل المثال من جذب سيولة الأفراد بشكل خاص في البدايات من كافة الدول الخليجية المجاورة.

وأضافت “المزايا” أن المسارات الاستثمارية الحالية شكلت أهمية كبيرة في توسيع قاعدة الاستثمار لدى القطاعات الاقتصادية كافة، والتي تتواصل رغم التحديات والمخاطر التي تحيط بها، بالإضافة إلى أن الارتفاع المسجل على حدة المنافسة بين أسواق الاستثمار المحلي والخارجي تضاعفت خلال السنوات الأخيرة للضغط على حجم السيولة الاستثمارية المتوفرة على المستوى المحلي لصالح فرص الاستثمار الخارجية، والتي تتمتع بأسعار جيدة وعوائد مستقرة ومرتفعة في أحيان كثيرة، الأمر الذي كان له أثر في الانحسار المسجل على قيم السيولة الاستثمارية في الوقت الحالي.

وبينت “المزايا” أن البيانات المتداولة تعكس مدى اتساع قيم الاستثمارات التي ضخها المستثمرين الأفراد والمؤسسات من المملكة العربية السعودية في فرص الاستثمار التي وفرتها اقتصادات الدول المجاورة، والتي تتجاوز 78 مليار دولار، حيث تركزت على الفرص الاستثمارية الواعدة التي وفرها السوق العقاري الإماراتي، مما عملت على رفع وتيرة الاستثمار والسيولة لدى السوق العقاري الإماراتي، ليتفوق المستثمرين السعوديين على باقي المستثمرين من دول مجلس التعاون.

ولفتت “المزايا” إلى القرارات الأخيرة التي تم اعتمادها والقاضية بإعفاء رجال الأعمال السعوديين من الرسوم ومعاملتهم معاملة المواطن الإماراتي، الأمر الذي سيعمل على رفع قيم الاستثمارات القادمة من السعودية باتجاه فرص الاستثمار التي يوفرها الحراك المالي والاقتصادي الإماراتي، وبشكل خاص القطاع العقاري والصناعي والسياحي، فيما يتوقع أن تشهد قطاعات النقل البري والخدمات اللوجستية المزيد من التدفقات النقدية، وذلك كنتيجة طبيعية للتطور الحاصل على مفهوم الاستثمار وقوانينه، التي تعتبر غير معقدة وتشجع الكثير من المستثمرين الخليجيين والعالم على الاستثمار فيها.

في المقابل تتصل التطورات الأخيرة التي يشهدها الاقتصاد السعودي بتأثيرات إيجابية أو سلبية على حركة التدفقات المالية والاستثمارية على مستوى المنطقة ككل دون استثناء، حيث تشير التوقعات أنها ستحمل تأثيرات سلبية على المدى القصير والمتوسط وإيجابية على المدى الطويل، كما تتزايد التساؤلات عن مستقبل ومصير الاستثمارات السعودية لدى الاقتصاد المصري والتي تقدر بـ 60 مليار دولار، وتتوزع بين الاستثمارات الحكومية والقطاع الخاص، فيما باتت الاستثمارات المتوقعة وتلك التي تم الاتفاق عليها بين القطاع الخاص ورجال الأعمال السعوديين والمصريين في حالة شك نظراً لصعوبة تقدير النتائج النهائية لحملة مكافحة الفساد التي تشنها المملكة العربية السعودية على عدد كبير من رجال الأعمال.

وكما هو معلوم فإن الاقتصاد المصري لا يزال بحاجة إلى المزيد من الاستثمارات الخارجية على كافة القطاعات والأنشطة كونه يمر بمرحلة إعادة تفعيل الخطط والبرامج الاستثمارية لمواجهة الضغوط المالية والاقتصادية الحادة، وأن أي تطورات قادمة من المملكة العربية السعودية سيكون لها بالغ الأثر على الاقتصاد المصري في المرحلة القادمة، وبشكل خاص على قطاعات الإعلام والصناعة والعقار وغيرها من القطاعات الحيوية.

وأوضحت “المزايا” أن الظروف والمستجدات المتسارعة من شأنها أن تفتح المجال أمام المزيد من التدفقات النقدية نحو الاستثمارات الخارجية على المستوى الإقليمي والعالمي، فيما يتوقع أن تتراجع قدرة عدد من اقتصادات دول المنطقة في جذب المزيد من الاستثمارات الأجنبية أو الحفاظ على الاستثمارات الحالية إذا ما تواصلت ظروف عدم الموائمة بين أهداف وتطلعات المستثمرين مع معدلات نمو ومؤشرات الاستقرار المالي والاقتصادي والسياسي على مستوى المنطقة ككل.

وقالت “المزايا” إن الفترة السابقة شهدت مرحلة التأسيس لجذب الاستثمارات الخارجية والحفاظ عليها، لتتصدر دولة الإمارات العربية المتحدة قائمة الدول الأعلى على المستوى العربي في تدفقات الاستثمار الأجنبية القادمة عند قيمة إجمالية وصلت إلى 9 مليار درهم إماراتي في نهاية عام 2016، تلتها في القائمة مصر بقيمة 8 مليار دولار، فيما جاءت المملكة العربية السعودية ثالثاً على القائمة بقيمة 7.5 مليار دولار، بينما وصلت تدفقات الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر القادمة إلى الدول العربية ككل 31 مليار دولار في نهاية عام 2016 مقارنة بمبلغ 24.6 مليار في نهاية العام 2015، وعلى الرغم من الارتفاع المسجل إلا أن حجم الاستثمارات مازال متواضعاً مقارنة بحجم الفرص وحجم الاستثمارات الخارجية لدول المنطقة حول العالم. كما أن التطورات المتسارعة التي يشهدها الاقتصاد السعودي من شأنها إعادة رسم خارطة الاستثمارات من وإلى المملكة بشكل خاص وباقي دول المنطقة بشكل عام.

    العقارات التجارية في السعودية تسجل تراجعات بنسبة 15% مع نهاية الربع الثالث من العام الحالي

أثبتت البيانات المتداولة بأن كفاءة السوق العقاري وقدرته على التأقلم مع الأحداث والأخبار اليومية تعتمد على مستوى المرونة التي يتمتع بها كل سوق، واستطاعته على معالجة الخلل الذي يتم تسجيله على مؤشرات العرض والطلب عند حدوثه، حيث شكلت العقارات الإدارية المحور الرئيسي الذي تقوم عليه التوقعات حول الأداء المستقبلي للسوق العقاري والقطاعات الاقتصادية الأخرى، في الوقت الذي من شأنها أن تعكس فيه العقارات التجارية والمكتبية طبيعة الحراك الإجمالي للأنشطة الاقتصادية المختلفة، نتيجة التداخل الكبير بين مسارات الطلب على المساحات والوحدات المكتبية وتحسن وتيرة الأنشطة الاستثمارية وقيم السيولة المتوفرة للاستثمار.

وقالت شركة المزايا القابضة في تقريرها الأسبوعي إن المساحات المكتبية تعتبر من أكثر المنتجات العقارية التي تأثرت بمستوى الطلب والأسعار السائدة والتراجعات المسجلة منذ بداية العام الحالي وحتى اللحظة، وذلك نتيجة جملة من العوامل والمؤشرات التي جاءت ضاغطة على وتيرة النشاط الاقتصادي وقدرة القطاعات الأخرى على تحقيق المزيد من النمو، الأمر الذي يشير إلى أن الطلب على المساحات المكتبية والإدارية يتركز على المساحات الصغيرة والتي غالباً ما تتناسب وحجم الأعمال المتوفر في الوقت الحالي.

وأضافت “المزايا” بأن أداء السوق العقاري على مستوى المنطقة يتأثر بشكل مباشر عند تسجيل تراجعات على وتيرة الأداء الاقتصادي وحركة رؤوس الأموال والاستثمارات، بالإضافة إلى تأثره بمستوى المخاطر المحيطة بالاستثمار المباشر وغير المباشر، حيث أن المساحات المكتبية تعتبر المقياس المباشر لقوة النشاط الاقتصادي ومعدلات نمو القطاع العقاري ومقياس إضافي لتصنيف أسواق الاستثمار من قبل المستثمرين.

وبينت “المزايا” بأن إجمالي الحراك المالي والاقتصادي لدى السوق السعودي يحتاج إلى مزيد من الوقت للتأثير على مسارات التأجير والاستثمار، حيث ينعكس ذلك إيجاباً على الأسعار المتداولة ونسب العوائد التي يمكن أن يجنيها المستثمرون، كما تشير البيانات المتداولة في السوق أن أسعار العقارات التجارية شهدت تراجعات حتى نهاية الربع الثالث من العام الحالي لتصل إلى 15% وبشكل خاص على المواقع الرئيسية في العاصمة الرياض، يأتي ذلك في الوقت الذي تسجل فيه الأرقام القياسية للأسعار تراجعاً بنسبة 9% على العقارات التجارية على أساس سنوي على مستوى المملكة.

كما أن الأسعار السائدة في السوق العقاري السعودي على كافة المنتجات دخلت في مسارات تصحيح منذ عدة سنوات ومازالت تسجل المزيد من التراجع، وذلك نتيجة الإجراءات الحكومية التي تتجه نحو ضبط السوق والوصول إلى الأسعار الحقيقية، والتي تمكن المواطنين من الاتجاه إلى الشراء والتملك، حيث شهد السوق السعودي تراجعاً على وتيرة نشاطه الاقتصادي بسبب إعادة الأولوية للمشاريع الحكومية وتركزها على القطاعات الإنتاجية والتي يعول عليها تحقيق التنويع المستهدف على الدخل القومي.

في المقابل فإن سوق العقارات التجارية والمساحات المكتبية في السوق الإماراتي يتمتع بحالة من التنوع من إمارة إلى أخرى، حيث تتباين الأسعار السائدة ومؤشرات العرض والطلب بين السوق العقاري في إمارة دبي مقارنة بإمارة ابوظبي أو إمارة الشارقة، إضافة إلى أن البيانات المتداولة تشير إلى استقرار معدلات الإيجار على المساحات المكتبية في السوق العقاري بإمارة دبي خلال الربع الثالث من العام الحالي، يأتي ذلك في ظل الحديث عن وصول إجمالي المساحات المكتبية المنفذة خلال الربع الثالث إلى 85 ألف متر مربع، فضلاً عن أن الأسعار شهدت حالة من الاستقرار على المواقع الرئيسية والثانوية، فيما يبدو السوق أكثر تركيزاً على مساحات التجزئة لدى مراكز التسوق الرئيسية التي تواصل تسجيل معدلات طلب وإشغال جيدة.

ولفتت “المزايا” أن الطلب على المتاجر لدى المجمعات ذات المساحات الصغيرة داخل وخارج مراكز التسوق باتت الأكثر طلباً، حيث مازالت العقارات التجارية في إمارة أبوظبي تمر بحالة من التصحيح على أسعار إيجارات المساحات المكتبية خلال النصف الأول من العام الحالي في ظل تسجيل الارتفاع على المعروض، فيما يتجه الطلب بشكل لافت على المساحات المكتبية الصغيرة والتي تتسم بأسعار مناسبة وبشكل خاص التي تستهدف المشاريع الصغيرة والمتوسطة الحجم.

واشارت “المزايا” إلى ظروف السوق العقاري في سلطنة عمان خلال الربع الثاني والثالث من العام الحالي، حيث تشير البيانات المتداولة إلى ضعف الأداء الاقتصادي، مما أدى إلى الضغط على أسعار تأجير المساحات المكتبية على مختلف المدن الرئيسية التي في مقدمتها العاصمة مسقط لتصل في المتوسط إلى 18%، بينما دفعت هذه المسارات الملاك إلى تقديم عروض تنافسية لإيجارات المكاتب، وبات المستأجرون يبحثون عن خيارات ذات أسعار منخفضة أو تقليص حجم المساحات المستأجرة.

وتوقعت “المزايا” أن تحمل التعقيدات ذات العلاقة برفع الدعم وتطبيق المزيد من الضرائب وبشكل خاص ضريبة القيمة المضافة بنسبة 5% على سوق العقارات تسجيل أسعار تأجير المكاتب تراجعاً إضافياً إذا ما تواصلت تكاليف التشغيل بالارتفاع، فضلاً عن أن التوقعات تشير إلى تباطؤ نمو الاقتصاد العماني، وذلك نتيجة انخفاض إنتاج النفط وعوائده، فيما يتوقع أن يعود إلى التعافي خلال العام 2018، تماشيا مع توسع إنتاج الغاز وثبات الاقتصاد غير النفطي، الأمر الذي قد ينعكس إيجاباً على السوق العقاري ككل.

وقالت “المزايا” في نهاية تقريرها إن العودة إلى المسارات المسجلة في السابق وعودة الجدوى للمشاريع الحالية والقادمة تتطلب حالة من الارتداد لدى أسواق النفط، والتي باتت تسجل قفزات سعرية قد يكون لها تأثير إيجابي على المدى المتوسط والطويل، إضافة إلى أن إعادة مراقبة المعروض وإدارة طرح المشاريع العقارية الاستثمارية والتجارية والسكنية من شأنه أن يعيد الجاذبية لكافة المنتجات والمشاريع، ومن شأنه تصحيح مسارات العرض والطلب، وبما يحقق أهداف المستثمرين والسوق والمستخدم النهائي.

أظهرت البيانات والمؤشرات المتداولة بأن أسواق المنطقة العقارية شهدت عمليات طرح أولية متواصلة خلال فترة ما بعد الأزمة المالية العالمية دون وصولها إلى المستويات المستهدفة، وذلك نتيجة استمرار الضغوطات المالية والاقتصادية وتراجع معدلات النمو لدى الاقتصاد العالمي، الذي لا يزال يشهد الكثير من التحديات والمعوقات التي تحول دون تحقيق معدلات نمو مستهدفة على الرغم من تدني أسعار النفط، والتي كانت تشكل التحدي الأكبر أمام الاقتصادات الصناعية والشركات الكبرى حول العالم.

وقالت شركة المزايا القابضة في تقريرها الأسبوعي إن عمليات التحول والطرح التي تنفذها اقتصادات المنطقة تشكل حالة إيجابية من شأنها تشجيع الشركات الأخرى على التحول للطرح العام وتوسيع قواعد التمويل ومصادره ورفع قيم السيولة المتداولة وقدرة الشركات على مواصلة الاستثمار في كافة الظروف، حيث باتت الشركات العاملة لدى اقتصادات المنطقة اللجوء إلى التمويل المناسب لتغطية النفقات الجارية والرأسمالية بالتوازي مع متطلبات العمل ومؤشرات النمو التي تظهرها الاقتصادات، فضلاً عن أنها أصبحت توسع قاعدة اتخاذ القرار والانفتاح نحو مصادر التمويل الضخمة، والتي تمكن الشركة من تنفيذ مشاريع نوعية لم تكن تستطيع الدخول فيها.

وأضافت “المزايا” أن الحراك الحالي يسير في الاتجاه الإيجابي وذلك إذا ما تم تنفيذ الطروحات الأولية التي تم الإعلان عنها من قبل الشركات صاحبة العلاقة في دول المنطقة، حيث تشهد اقتصادات المنطقة تحولات كبيرة نحو جذب الاستثمارات الأجنبية بكافة الوسائل والأدوات، فيما بدت حالة المنافسة أكثر وضوحاً خلال الفترة الحالية بين اقتصادات دول المنطقة، في ظل ما تشهده من تنفيذ مشاريع ضخمة وتعمل على إعادة هيكلة القوانين والتشريعات التي من شأنها تسهيل عمليات دخول الاستثمارات وتوطينها في كافة المجالات.

وأوضحت “المزايا” أن البيانات المتداولة تشير إلى استمرار حالة التباطؤ على عدد الاكتتابات والعائدات الإجمالية المحققة، لتنحصر أنشطة الاكتتابات خلال النصف الأول من العام الحالي لدى الاقتصاد السعودي مسجلة ثلاثة اكتتابات، مستهدفة بذلك توفير مصادر دخل جارية للمستثمرين من خلال الاستثمار في أصول عقارية مدرة للدخل والاستثمار التجاري وصناعة مواد البناء، إضافة إلى أن سوق الاكتتابات خلال الربع الثاني من العام الحالي جاء أفضل من مستواه خلال نفس الفترة من العام السابق.

وذكرت “المزايا” أن إجمالي الحراك المالي والاقتصاد الجاري تنفيذه في المملكة العربية السعودية يعزز الاتجاه نحو المزيد من الطروحات الأولية وزيادات على رؤوس الأموال خلال الفترة القادمة، حيث تعمل المملكة كمحرك رئيسي لأنشطة سوق الاكتتابات العامة الأولية على مستوى دول مجلس التعاون، في حين تشهد سوق الإعلانات طروحات أولية نشطة تعكس نية الشركات نحو التحول والاستفادة من التحركات المالية والاقتصادية، وتعكس أيضاً ثقة تلك الشركات بقوة الاقتصادات المحلية وقدرتها على فرز المزيد من فرص الاستثمار والمشاريع الجيدة خلال الفترة القادمة.

وتحدثت “المزايا” عن حراك سوق الاكتتابات لدى الاقتصاد الإماراتي والذي سجل اتساعاً على عدد وقيم الطروحات والاكتتابات الأولية قبل أن تبدأ بالتباطؤ نتيجة حالة الانحسار للسيولة المتداولة والسيولة الاستثمارية، والتي تأثرت بتراجع عوائد النفط والإنفاق الحكومي، حيث لنشاط سوق الاكتتابات الأولية لدى الاقتصاد الإماراتي تأثيرات إيجابية غير محدودة، وتلعب أدوار هامة في زيادة حجم السيولة المتداولة في أسواق المال، إضافة إلى دورها التحفيزي في جذب مستثمرين جدد على مستوى الأفراد والمؤسسات محلياً واقليمياً ودولياً.

في المقابل فإن التصنيفات المرتفعة التي يحصل عليها الاقتصاد الإماراتي وتصنيفه ضمن الدول ذات الدخل المرتفع، تعد جميعها مؤشرات تعكس الثقة الدولية المتزايدة في الاقتصاد والأسواق المحلية وأداء الشركات المساهمة العامة، الأمر الذي من شأنه أن يخلق المزيد من فرص دائمة للاكتتابات والطروحات الأولية والتي في المحصلة تعمل على تنويع مصادر التمويل والدخل للاقتصاد الوطني.

وأكدت “المزايا” على أهمية تنشيط سوق الاكتتابات المحلية على مستوى اقتصادات المنطقة خلال الفترة القادمة، حيث سيعمل ذلك على تشجيع عدد كبير من الشركات المترددة من إدراج أسهمها سواء كانت كبيرة الحجم أم صغيرة والتحول من شركات مساهمة خاصة إلى عامة، كما ستنعكس هذه التوجهات إيجاباً على تعزيز الاستثمارات الأجنبية وتدفق الكثير من الأموال.

وبينت “المزايا” أن سوق الاكتتابات على مستوى المنطقة قد تأثر سلباً بالأزمة المالية العالمية، حيث تتركز الجهود منذ ذلك التاريخ على تنشيط السوق وإعادته إلى سابق عهده، كما أن أسواق دول المنطقة على موعد مع الكثير من الطروحات الأولية للشركات الحكومية، والتي تأتي ضمن خطط التحول والخصخصة ومشاركة القطاع الخاص بخطط التنمية المستقبلية.

وقالت “المزايا” إن سوق الاكتتابات يتطلب توفر حالة من الانتعاش وارتفاع قيم السيولة لدى الأسواق المحلية والتي تعني ارتفاع مستويات الثقة وتراجع مستويات المخاطر والترقب، وذلك لتمكين الأسواق المالية والصناديق والشركات الاستثمارية من تسويق وجذب الاستثمارات وبشكل خاص الخارجية منها.

ولفتت “المزايا” إلى أن تنشيط سوق الاكتتابات المحلية خلال الفترة القادمة يشكل أهمية كبيرة لاقتصادات المنطقة والشركات العاملة فيها، كونها تعاني من تراجع على قيم السيولة في شرايين الاقتصاد، فيما ستخضع قيم الائتمان المقدم من قبل الجهاز المصرفي إلى اعتبارات كثيرة تتصل بطبيعة الاستثمارات ومددها ومستويات المخاطر والكلف والضمانات المقدمة، فيما تحتاج شركات القطاعات الرئيسية إلى مصادر تمويل أكثر مرونة وسرعة في الإنجاز من تلك التي يوفرها القطاع المصرفي لاعتبارات كثيرة تتصل بطبيعة الاستثمارات ومدتها ومستويات المخاطر والكلف والضمانات المقدمة.

في المقابل فقد بات من الضروري الاتجاه نحو الاستفادة من مدخرات وثروات واستثمارات الصناديق الاستثمارية الأجنبية، وإيجاد آليات لتوطين أموال الأيدي العاملة الأجنبية وإبقائها داخل الدول من خلال توفير آليات وأدوات استثمارية محلية قادرة على استيعابها، حيث تشير مؤشرات الأسواق إلى وجود رغبة لدى الكثير من المستثمرين للاستثمار إذا ما توفر الأدوات المناسبة ذات العوائد الجيدة.

باتت تسجل اتساعاً على مستوى المستثمرين وبديلاً استثمارياً ناجحاً على مستوى الشركات والعالم

أسواق السندات مصدر مالي واستثماري استثنائي تدفع عجلة التنمية وتطور البنية التحتية وترفع قيم السيولة المتداولة في دول المنطقة

الاقتصادات الخليجية تصدر سندات بقيمة 23 مليار خلال الربع الثالث من العام الحالي

أشارت البيانات التي يتم تداولها في الوقت الحالي أنه لا يوجد حدود للفرص الاستثمارية وللمخاطر التي تحيط بها حول العالم، إضافة إلى أنه لا يمكن تحديد مقدار العوائد التي من الممكن تحقيقها من وراء كل استثمار ناجح كان أم خاسر، فضلاً عن أنه لم يعد الاستثمار المباشر وغير المباشر حكراً على مؤسسات وشركات أو حكومات معينة، حيث أصبحت متوفرة أمام الجميع وبكافة الطرق والفئات والأحجام الاستثمارية، ولم يتبقى على المستثمر إلا اختيار التوقيت المناسب للبدء  بأعماله الاستثمارية التي تتناسب مع مقدار السيولة المتاحة لديه.

وقالت شركة المزايا القابضة في تقريرها الأسبوعي إن الاستثمار يتحكم فيه الظروف الاقتصادية السائدة على مستوى المناطق والعالم، حيث أن على الدول الاتجاه نحو البحث عن أدوات استثمارية تتعامل مع المخاطر أكثر من التعامل مع العوائد، كون حسابات المخاطر تكون أكثر حساسية من ظروف الانتعاش، إضافة إلى أن المستثمرين قادرين على التعامل مع كافة مستويات المخاطر بسبب ارتفاع نسبة العوائد، في الوقت الذي يسجل فيه الاستثمار في سوق السندات اتساعاً على مستوى المستثمرين وبديلاً استثمارياً ناجحاً على مستوى الشركات والدول.

وأضافت “المزايا” أن أسواق السندات حول العالم باتت داعماً رئيسياً لقيم السيولة الاستثمارية على مستوى أسواق الأسهم، وعلى مستوى الاستثمارات المباشرة على القطاع العقاري والصناعي وغيرها من الاستثمارات التي تصنف ضمن الاستثمارات متوسطة وطويلة الأجل والتي تحتاج إلى دورات وتشغيل اقتصادي لتوليد العوائد واسترداد قيم الاستثمارات الأولية، حيث تشكل أسواق السندات المحلية والعالمية مصدراً جيداً لتمويل الشركات والحكومات على حد سواء، فضلاً عن أنها أصبحت من الأدوات الاستثمارية ذات العوائد الجيدة، كما عملت على تحسين قيم السيولة المتوفرة للاستثمار لدى أسواق المنطقة وبشكل خاص خلال فترة تراجع أسعار النفط وتراجع عوائدها التي صاحبها انحسار لفرص الاستثمار الجيدة وتراجع قدرة المستثمرين على تحمل مخاطر متنوعة لا يمكن تقدير مستوياتها.

وأشارت “المزايا” إلى المؤشرات المتداولة التي تظهر مراهنة المستثمرين حول العالم على ارتفاع عائدات السندات خلال الأشهر 12 القادمة، حيث بات مديروا الصناديق على استعداد أكثر لتحقيق عوائد استثمارية مرتفعة تبعا لذلك، إضافة إلى أن حركة الاستثمارات العالمية أصبحت تتجه إلى أسواق السندات على حساب الإيداعات في البنوك والأصول التي تستفيد من ارتفاع أسعار الفائدة ومعدلات التضخم، فضلاً عن إمكانية التخارج من الاستثمار في الأسهم.

وبينت “المزايا” أن مخاطر الاستثمار في السندات باتت تتأثر سلباً بالمخاطر السياسية القائمة مع كوريا الشمالية، بالإضافة إلى مخاطر انهيار أسواق السندات العالمية خلال الفترة القادمة، حيث أن الأداء الاقتصادي العام لاقتصادات الدول أضحى يشكل أهم الحوافز لجذب المستثمرين حول العالم، وذلك لأن السندات الحكومية قادرة على جذب المستثمرين العالميين في أي وقت وبكافة القيم إذا ما تناسبت مع أهداف وتطلعات حملة السيولة الاستثمارية.

ورأت “المزايا” أن المقارنة بين الاستثمار في سوق السندات والسوق العقاري تبدو ذات جدوى إذا ما تم تقييمها على أساس المخاطر والعوائد وفترات الاسترداد والقدرة على تحديد الفرص الاستثمارية بالوقت المناسب، حيث أن الاستثمار في العقارات والسندات يوفر مجالات أوسع للمستثمرين تتناسب مع أهدافهم واستراتيجياتهم الاستثمارية وتحمل عوائد دورية مجدية، بالإضافة إلى أن الهدف الأساسي هو رغبة المستثمرين في الحفاظ على أموالهم المستثمرة أو زيادتها والحصول على تدفقات نقدية دورية.

في المقابل يشكل الاستثمار في السندات والعقارات أداة استثمارية آمنة، حيث يتم تقييم السندات وفقاً للملائمة المالية والقدرة الائتمانية للجهة المصدرة، فيما يتم تقييم الاستثمار في السوق العقاري وفقاً للأسعار المتداولة والعوائد المتوقعة وقوانين الاستثمار المحفزة للاستثمارات المحلية والأجنبية، بينما يعول في كلا الاتجاهين على قيم السيولة المتوفرة للاستثمار والتي ترتبط بالأداء الاقتصادي العام وأسعار النفط لدى اقتصادات المنتجين.

وتطرقت “المزايا” إلى التحسن المسجل لدى أسواق السندات وقدرتها على جذب حكومات الدول للاستثمار فيها أو الحصول على مصادر تمويل لا نهائية، يأتي ذلك في الوقت التي كانت تتجاهل فيه اقتصادات دول المنطقة أسواق السندات العالمية، ولكن مع تتابع الأزمات الاقتصادية العالمية واتساع حجم الديون خلال السنوات التي تلت الأزمة المالية العالمية ومع تراجع أسعار النفط إلى ما دون 30 دولار اتجهت اقتصادات المنطقة نحو سوق السندات لتتمكن من جمع ما يزيد عن 66 مليار دولار من خلال طرح سلسة من السندات في الأسواق العالمية خلال عام 2016، فيما تمكنت الأسواق الناشئة باستثناء الصين من طرح سندات بقيمة وصلت إلى 482 مليار دولار.

ولفتت “المزايا” إلى أنه ومع بقاء متوسط العجز لدى اقتصادات دول المنطقة عند 7% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي فإن التوقعات تتجه نحو زيادة إصدار السندات مع استمرار الاعتماد على سوق السندات وبقاء أسعار النفط دون المستويات التاريخية، بالإضافة إلى أن إمكانية انخفاض الجدارة الائتمانية في اقتصادات دول المنطقة ستكون أكثر واقعية، مما يعني تراجع قدرتها على جذب الاستثمارات الخارجية على القطاعات الاقتصادية الرئيسية التي يأتي في مقدمتها القطاع السياحي والعقاري والصناعي.

وأكدت “المزايا” أنه على الرغم من الضغوط والتقلبات التي تشهدها أسواق السندات العالمية إلا أن هذا السوق يشهد جاذبية استثنائية خلال الفترة الحالية، حيث تمكنت الاقتصادات الخليجية من إصدار سندات بقيمة 23 مليار خلال الربع الثالث من العام الحالي مقارنة بـ 21 مليار دولار خلال الربع الثاني، الأمر الذي يعكس حجم الاكتتابات المسجلة وقوة الاقتصادات الخليجية التي ترافقت مع ارتفاع أسعار النفط بنسبة كبيرة، والتي أدت أيضاً إلى زيادة الإقبال على السندات.

كما أن تراجع المخاوف المالية عمل على جعل السوق السعودية مصدر جذب نظراً لقوة الأداء الاقتصادي وفاعلية الصكوك كأداة استثمارية مهمة للمستثمرين، فيما شكلت زيادة الطلب على السندات الخليجية نظرة إيجابية للأداء الاقتصادي العام وخطط التنوع، بالإضافة إلى زيادة ثقة المستثمرين الخارجيين بقدرة الحكومات على سداد قيمة السندات في مواعيدها المحددة.

واختتمت “المزايا” تقريرها بأن سوق السندات بات يعد من المصادر الأكثر أهمية وسهولة في تجميع مبالغ مالية كبيرة تستخدم في مجالات التنمية وتطوير البنية التحتية ورفع قيم السيولة المتداولة في دول المنطقة، حيث أن تطور سوق السندات الدولية مكن حكومات دول المنطقة من الحصول على مبالغ إضافية ، فيما وجدت بعض الاقتصاديات في سوق السندات فرصة لاستثمار السيولة المتوفرة لديها بأسعار جيدة ومخاطر متدنية نظرا لتنوع مصادر تلك السندات وغاياتها ومدتها.

التقرير العقاري الأسبوعي لشركة المزايا القابضة

تراجع قيم السيولة الاستثمارية المحلية يرفع مستوى المنافسة على الاستثمارات الأجنبية

أسواق المنطقة تحتاج إلى تهيئة قطاعاتها الاقتصادية الرئيسية وتنفيذ الكثير من المتطلبات والمعايير ذات الطابع العالمي لاستقبال الاستثمارات الخارجية

إجمالي التجارة غير النفطية يصل إلى 71 مليار درهم في ظل تنامي العلاقة التجارية والاستثمارية والاقتصادية بين السعودية والإمارات

تشهد المنتجات العقارية حالة من اشتداد المنافسة فيما بينها خلال الفترة الحالية في ظل ما تشهده الأسواق من حجم معروض من الوحدات العقارية على مختلف أنواعها السكنية والتجارية والصناعية، لتضاف إلى تسابق قائم على المستوى الإقليمي والعالمي لاستقطاب الاستثمارات الخارجية.

وقالت شركة المزايا القابضة في تقريرها الأسبوعي إن المنافسة باتت تتعدى مضامين الأسعار والتصنيفات وتتصل بطبيعة القوانين والحوافز ومعدلات العوائد المتوقعة ومستويات المخاطر المصاحبة ومدى توفر مناخات استثمارية جاذبة، إضافة إلى أنها باتت قادرة على جذب المزيد من الاستثمارات التي تتوافق مع مستويات التحفيز الاقتصادي وقدرة الاقتصادات على فرز المزيد من فرص الاستثمار في كافة القطاعات الاقتصادية.

وبينت “المزايا” أن أسواق المنطقة ليست مستعدة للمنافسة الكاملة مع الأسواق الخارجية، كونها لاتزال بحاجة إلى تطبيق وتنفيذ الكثير من المتطلبات والمعايير ذات الطابع العالمي، بالإضافة إلى التخلص من الكثير من الحواجز الاجتماعية والتشريعية والنفسية لتتمكن من تهيئة قطاعاتها الرئيسية لاستقبال الاستثمارات الخارجية، فضلاً عن عدم وضوح مفهوم الاستثمارات الخارجية، والذي لا يزال ضمن المفاهيم العامة، دون تحديد آليات وطرق الاستفادة من الاستثمارات الأجنبية، والخطط الكفيلة بجلبها، وكيفية انسجامها مع خطط التنمية المرحلية والشاملة وخطط التحفيز والتحول الاقتصادي.

وأوضحت “المزايا” أنه من الضروري أن تتمكن اقتصاديات دول المنطقة من جذب الاستثمارات الحقيقية إلى القطاعات الإنتاجية لتعزيز قدرة اقتصاداتها على إنتاج وتصدير المنتجات للخارج بعيداً عن الاستثمارات الخدمية، والتي تنعكس إيجاباً على الشركات ومراكزها المالية فقط، كما أن عدد من اقتصادات المنطقة قد وصلت إلى مراحل من النضوج التي تتناسب ودخول استثمارات أجنبية شريكة لرفع مستويات المنافسة واختراق أسواق جديدة.

ولفتت “المزايا” إلى الاقتصاد الإماراتي الذي بات على مقربة عالية من تحقيق إنجازات عالمية على مستوى المنافسة في كافة القطاعات الاقتصادية، حيث تشير البيانات والمؤشرات المتداولة إلى احتلال الدولة مراتب متقدمة على المستوى العربي، فيما يتعلق بجذب الاستثمارات الأجنبية المباشرة خلال السنوات الماضية مستحوذة على ما نسبته 29% من إجمالي الاستثمارات الأجنبية المباشرة، في حين بات الاقتصاد الإماراتي قادر على استقطاب المشاريع الاستثمارية الأجنبية الجديدة، إضافة إلى أن الاقتصاد الإماراتي يستحوذ على ما نسبته 25% من أكبر 500 شركة عالمية تتخذ من الإمارات مقراً لها.

كما يحتل الاقتصاد الإماراتي المرتبة 16 في مؤشر التنافسية العالمية 2016/2017، على مستوى تمكين التجارة العالمي، وأصبح واضحاً التقدم الذي تحققه الشركات الوطنية وقدرتها على المنافسة مع مثيلاتها من الشركات العالمية وبشكل خاص على قطاعات البنية التحتية واللوجستية والطرق والعقارات، الأمر الذي انعكس إيجاباً على حجم التدفقات الاستثمارية الأجنبية الواردة، والتي سجلت نمواً بنسبة 2.2% في نهاية عام 2016.

ولاحظ تقرير “المزايا” تنامي العلاقة التجارية والاستثمارية والاقتصادية بين السعودية والإمارات، والتي باتت تشهد المزيد من الزخم والتحفيز والتنوع، وتعتبر الأكبر والأشمل على مستوى دول مجلس التعاون والمنطقة، حيث تشهد العلاقات الاقتصادية تطوراً ملحوظاً وبشكل خاص على الأنشطة التجارية ليرتفع إجمالي التجارة غير النفطية إلى 71 مليار درهم، فضلاً عن أن ارتفاع مستويات الشراكة والاستثمار المتبادل من شأنه أن يساعد الاقتصاد السعودي على تحقيق نجاحات إضافية من خلال الاستفادة من التجربة الاقتصادية الإماراتية، كون الاقتصاد السعودي يعتمد وبشكل رئيسي على استخراج وتصدير النفط.

كما تعول الجهات الرسمية السعودية على خطط التحول والتحفيز الاقتصادي وإعادة تقييم كافة التشريعات والقوانين ذات العلاقة بالشأن الاقتصادي والاستثماري، وتعميق دور القطاع الخاص في صنع القرار الاقتصادي، حيث تشير البيانات المتداولة إلى أن الناتج المحلي الإجمالي حقق نسب نمو وصلت إلى 6.5% خلال السنوات الماضية، فيما سجل الناتج المحلي الحقيقي غير النفطي معدلات نمو وصلت إلى 7.8% ليتجاوز نصيب القطاع الخاص من الناتج المحلي ما نسبته 38%، الأمر الذي يشير إلى تسجيل حراك اقتصادي من شأنه أن يحسن قدرة الاقتصاد السعودي على جذب الاستثمارات الأجنبية خلال السنوات القادمة.

وتطرقت “المزايا” إلى الاقتصاد التركي والقطاع العقاري فيه الذي أصبح قادراً على المنافسة على المستوى الإقليمي والعالمي، والتي شهدت حالة من التركيز الحكومي على القطاعات الأكثر أهمية، فيما تشير البيانات المتداولة إلى قدرة الاقتصاد التركي على تحقيق معدلات نمو تصل إلى 5.5%، إضافة إلى أن الجهات الحكومية تسعى إلى تحقيق معدلات نمو أكثر توازناً من خلال تطبيق المزيد من الإصلاحات السعرية، حيث يتصدر القطاع العقاري على التركيز الحكومي وتبني الكثير من البرامج لتطوير القطاع ورفع جاذبيته الاستثمارية.

وفي السياق فإن السوق العقاري الأردني بات أكثر جاهزية للمنافسة على مستوى المنطقة من خلال الاعتماد على العديد من الخطط والاستراتيجيات التي من شأنها تحسين الجاذبية الاستثمارية للقطاعات الاقتصادية وتوفير العديد من التسهيلات والحوافز للاستثمارات المحلية والأجنبية، وذلك في إطار سعيها إلى مضاعفة معدل النمو الاقتصادي، فيما تضيف معايير الاستقرار مزايا كثيرة ذات علاقة بتحفيز الاستثمار المحلي والخارجي، وبات من الواضح أن الكثير من المشاريع العقارية الجاري التخطيط لها والتي في طور التنفيذ تستهدف المستثمرين الخليجيين في الأساس، وذلك لأن الخليجيين يبحثون عن فرص استثمارية جديدة ومربحة لدى الأسواق المجاورة، والتي منها السوق العقاري الأردني الذي يتجه نحو تبني أنظمة التملك الحر للمستثمرين الأجانب.

واختتمت “المزايا” تقريرها بأن مؤشرات الاستقرار والأمان وتوفر معدلات نمو جيدة وتبني الجهات الحكومية لخطط التنمية ودعمها وإشراك القطاع الخاص بخطط التنمية المتوسطة وطويلة الأجل، يعمل على ارتفاع حدة المنافسة بين الاقتصادات المحلية والأجنبية على الاستحواذ على الحصة الأكبر من الاستثمارات الباحثة عن الفرص الاستثمارية المثالية، ويأتي ذلك في الوقت الذي تتراجع فيه قيم السيولة الاستثمارية على المستوى المحلي وارتفاع درجة التعقيد والمطالب لجذب الاستثمارات الخارجية إلى الأسواق الأقل تطوراً.

على المنتجات العقارية

تقرير المزايا: وفرة المعروض من الوحدات في دول مجلس التعاون انعكس على الأسعار الإيجارية لها لتسجل تراجع بنسب تراوحت بين 5  20٪

كشفت بعض المؤشرات وجود الكثير من المعطيات المتداولة التي تؤثر إيجاباً وسلباً على أداء السوق العقاري في المنطقة بالوقت الحالي، إضافة إلى ظهور عدد من القرارات والتطورات التي تحمل في طياتها نتائج يصعب تحديدها، حيث سجلت أسعار الإيجارات لكافة المنتجات العقارية سواء كانت سكنية أو تجارية أو استثمارية وحتى الصناعية مسارات من التصحيح بشكل إيجابي عملت على تنشيط سوق الطلب رغم جميع التحديات الاقتصادية التي تحيط بالقطاع العقاري.

وقالت شركة المزايا القابضة في تقريرها الأسبوعي إن مؤشر أسعار التأجير لدى المدن الرئيسية في المنطقة قد تأثرت بمجموعة من العوامل التي في مقدمتها استمرار تراجع أسعار النفط، وانخفاض حجم القروض التي توفرها قنوات التمويل وخطط التمويل المخصصة للمنتجات العقارية التي يتم طرحها في السوق، إضافة إلى أن آليات عرض المنتجات كان لها دور في تحديد مستوى التراجع أو الثبات، فيما استحوذت أسعار العقارات المطروحة للبيع على أدوار في تحديد الطلب على سوق التأجير لدى بعض الأسواق والتي غالبا ما تتأثر بمرونة أسعار العقارات المطروحة للبيع.

وأكدت “المزايا” أن حجم وتنوع القطاع السياحي يساهم في تنشيط السوق العقاري، بينما تلعب البورصات أدوار متقدمة في تحديد حجم السيولة المتداولة نظراً لتساوي فرص الاستثمار في ظروف الانتعاش والتراجع، حيث بات واضحاً أن العديد من الأسواق العقارية في دول المنطقة تراجعت أسعار التأجير فيها خلال العامين الماضيين، كما تساوت التراجعات ذات العلاقة بتراجع عوائد النفط وعوامل المعروض وحالة الانسجام بين قوى العرض والطلب.

وأضافت “المزايا” أن هناك تباين واضح في نسب التراجع المسجلة عند الحديث عن قدرة الأسواق على جذب الاستثمارات الخارجية إلى القطاع العقاري وغير العقاري، حيث أن الاستمرار في تنفيذ مشاريع عقارية وتنموية ضخمة وطرح المزيد منها سيؤثر على القيم الإيجارية النهائية.

وتحدثت “المزايا” عن المؤشرات التي عكستها الأسواق العقارية الإماراتية منذ بداية العام الحالي وحتى نهاية الربع الثالث منه، حيث تشير البيانات الخاصة بسوق التأجير إلى دخول السوق العقاري الإماراتي في انحسار لمسارات التراجع قريبة من الثبات، مسجلة نسب تراجع تراوحت بين 5% و 10% على كافة المواقع في المدن الرئيسية، فيما يظهر سوق التأجير في إمارة دبي تماسكه وثبات أسعاره عند حدود معينة متماشية مع مستويات السيولة المتداولة وارتفاع الطلب المحلي والخارجي، إضافة إلى أن سوق دبي سجل ارتفاع في نسبة الرهونات العقارية منذ بداية العام الحالي، ساهمت في التخفيف من حدة التراجعات المسجلة.

كما سجلت أسواق التأجير في إمارة أبوظبي الاتجاه نفسة مع ارتفاع في حدة التراجعات والتي وصلت إلى 10% على الشقق السكنية خلال الربع الثاني، وعلى أساس سنوي، فيما تراجعت أسعار تأجير الفلل بنسبة 9% خلال الفترة ذاتها، إضافة إلى أن مبيعات الوحدات العقارية سجلت تراجعاً على وتيرتها بنسبة وصلت إلى 14% في نهاية الربع الثاني من العام الحالي مقارنة بمستواها في عام 2016، ويعود ذلك إلى تفاعل قوى العرض والطلب والضغوط المالية والاقتصادية على المستوى المحلي والإقليمي والعالمي، بالإضافة إلى تراجع الإنفاق الحكومي والمشاريع المطروحة.

وقالت “المزايا” إن القرارات المالية والاقتصادية والاجتماعية التي تتسارع أنباء طرحها في السعودية والبدء بتنفيذ الكثير من التوجهات الحكومية ذات العلاقة بإجراء إصلاحات اقتصادية ومالية جوهرية لم يسبق لها أن أبصرت النور لدى المملكة، ستنعكس إيجاباً وسلباً على الكثير من القطاعات خلال مراحل التنفيذ الأولى، مما سيؤدي إلى تأثير هذه القرارات بشكل مباشر وغير مباشر على السوق العقاري على مستوى أسعار التأجير وأسعار البيع السائدة.

في المقابل فإن التوجهات الحكومية السعودية الحالية ستنعكس إيجابا على المواطنين والمستخدم النهائي من خلال طرح المنتجات بأسعار متدنية، وستنعكس سلباً على المستثمرين نظراً لتدني العوائد والأرباح الرأسمالية، حيث تشير البيانات المتداولة إلى تسجيل أسعار الإيجارات نسب تراجع وصلت إلى 20% نتيجة ارتفاع عدد الوحدات الشاغرة والتي تأتي كنتيجة مباشرة لتزايد عدد المقيمين الذين غادروا المملكة منذ بداية العام الحالي، بالإضافة إلى تأثر الكثير من الشركات بتراجع وتيرة النشاط الاقتصادي وانخفاض الصرف على الكثير من المشاريع.

كما يتوقع أن تتواصل مؤشرات التراجع في السوق العقاري السعودي حتى نهاية عام 2018 قبل أن تبدأ نتائج إعادة الهيكلة الاقتصادية بالظهور، فضلاً عن أن وزارة الإسكان السعودية تعمل حالياً على توفير ما يقارب 1.5 مليون وحدة سكنية، والتي من المتوقع أن يكون لها تأثيرات على أسعار التأجير والبيع.

وأوضحت “المزايا” أن أداء السوق العقاري البحريني يختلف كثيراً عن باقي أسواق الدول المجاورة، كونه يشهد ارتفاعاً في الطلب على الوحدات السكنية بشكل دائم، بسبب محدودية المساحات المتوفرة على مستوى المملكة ككل، بالإضافة إلى تواصل المشاريع التي يقودها القطاع الخاص والعام منذ فترة، فضلاً عن أن الأسواق العقارية البحرينية شهدت موجة من التصحيح والتراجع على أسعار التأجير منذ بداية العام الحالي، والتي وصلت إلى ما نسبته 8%.

وبينت “المزايا” أن السوق العقاري البحريني تأثر بوتيرة النشاط الاقتصادي المسجل على مستوى اقتصادات المنطقة وتراجع أسعار النفط، حيث أن عدد من القطاعات الاقتصادية الرئيسية مازالت تحقق المزيد من المؤشرات القوية والتي في مقدمتها القطاع السياحي الذي يأتي على رأس الأولويات الحكومية التي تتركز في الوقت الحالي على توفير بيئة حاضنة للمشاريع السياحية، وتحفيز مشاريع القطاع الخاص، وذلك لأنه يساهم بما نسبته 3.4% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي، فيما تستهدف المملكة مضاعفة نسب المساهمة لتصل إلى 6% من الناتج المحلي خلال السنوات القليلة القادمة.

وتطرقت “المزايا” إلى أداء السوق العقاري في سلطنة عمان، والذي تتساوى فيه مصادر المؤثرات السلبية كتراجع أسعار النفط وانخفاض وتيرة الاستثمارات الحكومية، بالإضافة إلى ارتفاع حدة المنافسة بين أسواق المنطقة لاستقطاب السياح والزوار، فضلاً عن وجود تحديات محلية ذات علاقة بتطور القوانين والتشريعات، حيث تشهد أسعار الوحدات السكنية والمساحات الإدارية المزيد من التراجع.

وأضافت “المزايا” أن البيانات المتداولة تشير إلى أن متوسط الإيجارات في سلطنة عمان سجل نسبة انخفاض وصلت إلى 6% منذ بداية العام الحالي، فيما أظهر السوق مؤشرات تماسك وانحسار لموجات التراجع، حيث تم ملاحظة صعوبة تسجيل قفزات كبيرة على الأداء الاقتصادي العماني خلال الفترة الحالية، وصعوبة توفير المزيد من فرص الاستثمار المتنوعة التي من شأنها رفع وتيرة الطلب على الوحدات السكنية من قبل المستأجرين، كما أنه من المتوقع أن تسجل السوق أدنى قيمة للإيجارات وعند نسب تراجع ستراوح بين 5% و7% حتى نهاية العام الحالي.

ترتبط سيولة القطاع العقاري في دول المنطقة بمستوى التحفيز وحجم وعدد المشاريع العقارية والقدرة الشرائية للمستثمرين والمستخدم النهائي إلى جانب قدرة شركات التطوير العقاري، وما توفره قنوات التمويل على اختلافها، حيث أصبحت تستحوذ مفاهيم ومضامين قيم السيولة على أهمية كبيرة لدى الأسواق المحلية، فضلاً عن أن تراجعها قد يؤدي إلى الدخول في حالة من الانخفاض على الأسعار وعلى قيم الاستثمار ونموها، الأمر الذي من شأنه طرح المزيد من المشاريع والاستثمارات وتحقيق نمو جيد على القطاعات الاقتصادية كافة دون استثناء.

وقالت شركة المزايا القابضة في تقريرها الأسبوعي إن الأسواق العقارية في دول المنطقة سجلت ارتفاعات قياسية على قيم السيولة المتداولة خلال السنوات الماضية، دفعتها إلى تسجيل فقاعات سعرية وارتفاعات على مؤشرات الطلب الحقيقي وغير الحقيقي، إلى جانب ما يتم طرحه وإنجازه من المشاريع العقارية، الأمر الذي جعل حكومات الدول تتجه نحو تنفيذ خطط لتطوير البنية التحتية والاستعداد لمشاريع عقارية وغير عقارية بكافة أنواعها وأشكالها.

وأضافت “المزايا” أن أسواق المنطقة تواجه في الوقت الحالي انخفاضاً على قيم السيولة الاستثمارية، الأمر الذي كان له أثر نوعي على الأداء العام للقطاعات الاقتصادية، وعلى مؤشرات الأسعار المتداولة بيعاً وتأجيراً، إضافة إلى تأثر العوائد النهائية الناتجة عن الأنشطة الاستثمارية المختلفة، إلا أنه بات واضحاً أن للسوق العقاري قدرة على التأقلم ومواجهة التحديات بمرونة جيدة، ويستطيع الصمود والاستمرار في البحث عن الوسائل والأدوات التي من شأنها الحفاظ على مستويات نمو مستهدفة.

وتطرقت “المزايا” إلى مؤشرات السيولة لدى القطاع العقاري البحريني، حيث تشير البيانات المتداولة إلى أن قيمة المشاريع العقارية تصل إلى 26 مليار دولار، كما يشهد القطاع ارتفاعاً على طلب العقارات السكنية والتجزئة، فضلاً عن قطاعات الضيافة والفنادق التي تنمو سريعاً، إضافة إلى أنه من المتوقع أن يرتفع الطلب على الوحدات السكنية، وعلى الخدمات السياحية نتيجة تدفق الزوار إلى المملكة الذي وصل عددهم الإجمالي إلى 5.6 مليون سائح خلال النصف الأول من العام الحالي، وبنسبة زيادة وصلت إلى 14% مقارنة بنفس الفترة من العام 2016.

وفي السياق فقد بلغ عدد المشاريع العقارية الجاري تنفيذها في البحرين 17 مشروع عقاري، تركزت في الغالب على مشاريع الإسكان، بالإضافة إلى استمرار مشاريع تطوير البنية التحتية، فيما تسعى الجهات الرسمية إلى إدخال المزيد من التطوير على التشريعات التي تهدف إلى جذب المزيد من الاستثمارات وتحسين قيم السيولة الاستثمارية على القطاع العقاري وباقي القطاعات.

وعلى صعيد السوق العقاري السعودي، فإن معدات السيولة تواجه بعض الضغوطات ذات العلاقة ببعض القوانين، في مقدمتها فرض رسوم على الأراضي الفضاء، ونتيجة تشدد المصارف في منح القروض العقارية وفرض شروط إضافية، إلى جانب تراجع عدد المشاريع الاستثمارية في المجال العقاري.

وأكدت “المزايا” أن السيولة الاستثمارية لدى السعودية تختبر في الأساس سوق الأسهم قبل أن تتوزع على القطاعات والأنشطة الاقتصادية الأخرى، حيث أن وجود مؤشرات جيدة في سوق الأسهم خلال الفترة الحالية سيعمل على تصعيب فرصة إدخال سيولة استثمارية جديدة إلى السوق العقاري السعودي، إضافة إلى أن المشاريع التي تم الإعلان عنها وتلك الجاري تنفيذها ستتواصل وفق الجداول الزمنية والخطط المعدة في الأساس، فيما يتوقع أن تبدأ سيولة السوق العقاري بالتحسن بداية العام القادم نتيجة لحزمة القوانين والقرارات التي سيتم اتخاذها، والتي تسعى عبرها السلطات الرسمية إلى تشجيع الاستثمار والتطوير العقاري وتوفير بيئة مناسبة لتحفيز المنافسة على المستوى المحلي والخارجي.

وتحدثت “المزايا” عن سيولة السوق العقاري الإماراتي خلال العام الحالي، حيث تم ملاحظة أن كافة المؤشرات المتوفرة تعمل على تحفيز القطاع وفرز المزيد من فرص الاستثمار الجيدة سواء كان على مستوى التشريعات أم على مستوى الفعاليات والحراك الاستثماري المسجل حتى اللحظة، فيما ساهمت مسارات التصحيح السعري المسجلة على رفع جاذبية العقارات المعروضة، وشجعت المطورين العقاريين على طرح المزيد من المشاريع ذات الطلب المرتفع محلياً وخارجياً، بينما تنشط الشركات العقارية في طرح منتجات عقارية قابلة للترويج والتسويق والبيع بأسعار السوق السائدة من دون خسائر.

وأبدت “المزايا” ملاحظتها بأن كافة إمارات الدولة تسجل المزيد من الحراك وتحافظ على سيولة جيدة حتى اللحظة تمكنها من الاستمرار وتحقيق المزيد من النتائج الجيدة، حيث أن القطاع العقاري في إمارة أبوظبي سجل المزيد من النمو وارتفعت وتيرة النشاطات العقارية بنحو 8% خلال العام الماضي مدعومة بتنوع نشاط العقارات والتشييد ومشاريع البنية التحتية الجاري تنفيذها، بالإضافة إلى الارتفاع المسجل على القروض العقارية وارتفاع حجم الاستثمارات الأجنبية.

وأشارت “المزايا” إلى مجموعة القرارات والتوجهات التي ستعمل على التخفيف من عجز الموازنات وتوفير مصادر للإيرادات الحكومية، والتي منها فرض ضريبة القيمة المضافة في بداية عام 2018، بالإضافة إلى التوجهات ذات العلاقة بخصخصة عدد كبير من الشركات والمؤسسات الحكومية، والتي من شأنها أن ترفع قيم السيولة وتوفر مصادر تمويل للاستثمارات والخطط المالية والاقتصادية القادمة، فضلاً عن بقاء أسعار النفط عند حدودها الحالية، وتركيز المزيد من الاستثمارات الجديدة على تطوير قطاع الطاقة المتجددة وزيادة مساهمته في الناتج المحلي الإجمالي لدول المنطقة.

وبينت “المزايا” أن سيولة السوق العقاري من الممكن أن تتحرك في الأسواق الراكدة وتتزايد وتتحسن أكثر لدى الأسواق النشطة في الأساس خلال العام القادم، والتي ستكون مدعومة بحزمة من المشاريع الانتقائية والتي تعمل على تحفيز الاستثمارات والمستثمرين على المستوى المحلي والخارجي.

واختتمت “المزايا” تقريرها بأن التوقعات ذات العلاقة بمعدلات النمو الاقتصادي لدى الاقتصادات الرئيسية في المنطقة، ستدعم تحسن مستويات السيولة المتداولة على كافة الأنشطة الاقتصادية والتي في مقدمتها السوق العقاري، وذلك لأن التقديرات تشير إلى قدرة الاقتصاد السعودية على تحقيق معدلات نمو تصل إلى 1.8% في نهاية العام الحالي مقارنة بـ 1.3% في نهاية عام 2016 وبنسبة نمو اقتصادي سيصل إلى 3% لدى الاقتصاد الإماراتي، فضلاً عن التوقعات الإيجابية حول نمو الناتج المحلي غير النفطي بنسبة ستصل إلى 3.8% وبنسبة تصل إلى 2.3% لدى الاقتصاد البحريني، الأمر الذي يعني أن الأداء الاقتصادي العام لازال في المنطقة الإيجابية وقادر على تحقيق معدلات نمو مستقرة ونامية.

المزايا: آليات السوق تعزز من تحول سلوك المستخدم النهائي نحو التملك

أظهرت مسارات الأسواق العقارية ضمن دول المنطقة بأن الطلب على التملك مستمر من قبل المستخدم النهائي والمستثمرين المحليين والخارجيين، مع تزايد حدة هذه التعاملات في ظروف الانتعاش الاقتصادي وارتفاع قيم السيولة المتداولة لدى الأسواق العقارية، في ظل ارتفاع معدلات الإيجارات بشكل عام وبنسب عوائد مجدية، الأمر الذي يشير إلى أن خيار التملك سيصبح أكثر جدوى في المستقبل القريب.

في الوقت الذي عززت فيه غالبية شركات التطوير العقاري من حملاتها التسويقية المكثفة خلال الربع الأخير من العام الجاري والمتضمنة عروضاً تشجيعية ومحفزات إضافية للجمهور في سبيل بيع أكبر قدر ممكن من الوحدات السكنية لديها قبل نهاية العام، وتحقيق الأهداف الموضوعة على الصعيد التسويقي.

وقالت شركة المزايا القابضة في تقريرها الأسبوعي إن قوى العرض والطلب تتفاوت على المنتجات العقارية المختلفة، وذلك لاختلاف الظروف المالية والاقتصادية المحلية والقدرات المالية للراغبين في الشراء أو الاستثمار، كما أنها تختلف من دورة مالية إلى أخرى وبين اقتصاد لآخر، وذلك يعود إلى أسباب منها، قوة الانسجام مع خطط واسترايجيات التنمية وخطط التركيز الاستثماري سواء كان باتجاه القطاعات الإنتاجية أم الخدمية وغيرها، فضلاً عن أن التراجع في الأسعار وتراجع قوى الطلب، وثبات قوى العرض الذي عمل على فرض حالة من التساوي بين خيارات التملك والتأجير ضمن الحسابات الزمنية القصيرة والمتوسطة للمستثمرين، فيما بقي خيار التملك الأفضل ضمن الحسابات الزمنية طويلة الأجل للمستخم النهائي.

وأوضحت “المزايا” أن خيارات التملك والتأجير متاحة في جميع اقتصادات المنطقة والكثير من دول العالم التي تسمح قوانينها بالتملك الحر لغير المواطنين، وذلك ضمن أطر قانونية تم تطويرها مؤخراً للاستحواذ على مزيد من الاستثمارات الأجنبية، وتنشيط الطلب في الأسواق العقارية التي غالباً ما تتداخل مع الكثير من القطاعات.

وأكدت “المزايا” على أهمية المراحل التي تمر بها الاقتصادات المستهدفة من قبل المستثمرين للدخول في عمليات الاستثمار، وعلى العلاقة الطردية بين النمو الاقتصادي وارتفاع عدد المستثمرين بالقطاع العقاري والتملك الهادفة إلى الاستثمار، فيما تتناسب قوى الطلب من قبل المستخدم النهائي بالعكسية، وذلك لأن ارتفاع الطلب الخارجي يرفع الأسعار ويخفض من فرص المستخدم النهائي من الحصول على الوحدات العقارية بالأسعار التي تتناسب والقدرات المالية الخاصة به، إضافة إلى أن لتطوير قوانين التمويل العقاري وتوفر آليات ذات علاقة بالرهن العقاري لها تأثير مباشر على إجمالي الحراك، وعلى قوى العرض والطلب والأسعار السائدة، إضافة إلى تأثيرها على عدد المشاريع الجديدة التي يتم طرحا كلما تصاعدت قوى الطلب.

وأشارت “المزايا” إلى مسارات السوق العقاري الإماراتي وقوى العرض والطلب فيه التي مازالت تحقق استقرار قابل للنمو، فيما تسجل مشاريع التملك الحر المزيد من الجاذبية، حيث سجل السوق دخول ستة مشاريع للتملك الحر منذ بداية العام الحالي في إمارة دبي، توزعت بين مشاريع فاخرة ومتوسطة، وذلك لتلبية احتياجات شرائح متنوعة من المستثمرين.

كما تشهد إمارة أبوظبي دخول مجموعة جيدة من مشاريع التملك الحر، وذلك نتيجة الطلب الكبير على الشراء، فيما تشهد إمارات الدولة الأخرى نشاطاً ملحوظاً في هذا الاتجاه، بسبب مؤشرات الطلب التي مازالت داعمة لتنفيذ المزيد من المشاريع العقارية، فضلاً عن أن استمرار مسارات التصحيح السعري المتوسط المسجل لدى السوق العقاري الإماراتي حتى اللحظة سيساهم في ارتفاع الطلب على التملك الاستثماري بشكل خاص.

وشددت “المزايا” على أهمية الخطط التي تتبناها شركات التطوير العقاري لتحفيز الراغبين في الشراء للوحدات السكنية في الوقت الحالي، وبشكل خاص طرح برامج سداد تتناسب مع نسبة كبيرة من الراغبين في التحول من الاستئجار إلى التملك وتشجعهم على شراء الوحدات السكنية، إضاف إلى أن قوانين التملك الحر لدى دول المنطقة بشكل خاص وخارجها جميعها تركز على تسهيل إجراءات التملك وفق شروط ومحددات منافسة ومرنة وقابلة التعديل وفق المستجدات المحيطة بها، والمتطلبات الخاصة بخطط التنمية لدى كل اقتصاد.

وأضافت “المزايا” أن جذب الاستثمارات وتنشيط الأسواق لا يقتصر فقط على القوانين والتشريعات، وإنما يعتمد على المناخات الاستثمارية وآليات التحفيز ومقدار التشغيل للقطاعات الاقتصادية ومعدلات النمو الحالية والمستهدفة، حيث أن الاقتصادات الأكثر جذباً للاستثمارات العقارية وغير العقارية هي الاقتصادات الأكثر نشاطا وإنتاجية والقادرة على توليد فرص الاستثمار الجيدة.

وتطرقت “المزايا” إلى قوانين التملك الحر لدى عدد من الدول التي تم ملاحظة تركيزها على الاستثمار الأجنبي، حيث يركز قانون التملك الحر في السعودية على السماح بتملك غير المواطنين المقيمين في المملكة لغرض السكن الخاص، وعلى الصعيد الاستثماري يحق للمستثمر الأجنبي شراء المباني والأراضي لإقامة المباني السكنية واستثمارها في البيع أو التأجير خلال مدة خمسة سنوات، بشرط أن لايقل تكلفة المشروع عن 30 مليون ريال.

في المقابل فقد حملت قوانين التملك الحر الكثير من النتائج الإيجابية على الاقتصاد الإماراتي منذ البداية كونه من الاقتصادات الأولى التي قامت باعتماد وتطبيق القوانين ذات العلاقة ليصل إجمالي الحراك إلى أكثر من 34 منطقة حرة في الدولة تعمل على جذب الاستثمار والمستثمرين من كافة انحاء العالم، حيث تعمل مجتمعة ومنفردة على توفير مناخات حرة للتجارة وتقدم إعفاءات جمركية على الصادارت والواردات لتشجيع الشركات على تأسيس الأعمال وتحفيز القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة، الأمر الذي شكل في الوقت الحالي مصدر دعم مباشر لاقتصادات دول المنطقة ككل.

وعلى صعيد متصل فإن المملكة العربية السعودية تتجه نحو تحقيق المزيد من الأهداف المشابهة للإمارات، حيث سمحت الهيئة العامة للاستثمار في المملكة رخصاً للاستثمار الأجنبي في 13 قطاع اقتصادي، وتهدف من خلال ذلك إلى جذب الاستثمارات الأجنبية الجادة التي تساهم إيجاباً في تنمية الاقتصاد الوطني، فيما تتجه كل من مملكة البحرين وسلطنة عمان الاتجاه نفسة بطرق وأدوات مشابهة ومغايرة أحياناً سعياً منها إلى تنشيط عمل القطاعات الاقتصادية الرئيسية والاستحواذ على حصص جيدة من إجمالي الاستثمارات القادمة إلى المنطقة.

واختتمت “المزايا” تقريرها، أن مشاريع التملك الحر ساهمت كثيراً في تحسين وتطوير الأداء العام للاقتصاد ورفعت من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي، إضافة إلى أنها ساعدت في  أكساب دول المنطقة جاذبية أكثر  للاستثمار، وانعكست بشكل كبير مردوداتها إيجاباً على جودة المنتجات العقارية ككل، فضلاً عن أن مشاريع التملك الحر كان لها دور مؤثر في الحفاظ على وتيرة النشاط عند حدود جيدة على الرغم من التراجع المسجل على مستوى المنطقة والعالم، إضافة إلى مساهمتها في الحد من التراجعات السعرية في الأسواق النشطة على مستوى المنطقة، ودورها في الحد من هجرة روؤس الأموال إلى الأسواق الخارجية، كونها توفر فرص استثمارية مجدية اقتصادياً.

في ظل مساهمتها بمنح المنتجات العقارية مزيداً من الجاذبية السعرية للتملك

القطاع المصرفي يلعب أدواراً حيوية في تنشيط وتعزيز الحراك العقاري ومواصلة نموه

عوائد الاستثمار العقاري في الإمارات وصلت إلى متوسط سنوي قدره 12%

تشير الدلالات بأن القطاع العقاري الخليجي يحتاج إلى بعض العناصر الرئيسية المكملة لتحقيق مزيد من الإنجازات الاقتصادية، بما يجعله يمضي قدماً في تنفيذ الخطط والمشاريع العقارية ومشاريع البنية التحتية، ومن أهم هذه العناصر وجود وقطاع مصرفي قوي، يكون له دور حيوي ومباشر في إيجاد وتفعيل وتوسيع أنشطة وعمل القطاع العقاري وتحقيق نجاحات على أرض الواقع في الوقت الحالي.

حيث قالت شركة المزايا القابضة في تقريرها الأسبوعي إن القطاع المصرفي أصبح يلعب أدواراً استثنائية في كافة الظروف وبخاصة في حالات التراجع والركود، وذلك من خلال الاستمرار في منح القروض العقارية للأفراد والشركات لاستمرارية تنفيذ المشاريع، الأمر الذي سيكون له تأثير مباشر على ديمومة القطاع وقدرته على النمو والتوسع ومقاومة الضغوط المباشرة، إضافة إلى أن مستويات المنافسة بين البنوك وبين شركات التطوير العقاري كان لها دور كبير في تخفيض الكلف المصرفية.

وأضافت “المزايا” أن الجهاز المصرفي له أدوار مؤثرة وحيوية على جميع القطاعات الاقتصادية في صياغة حاضرها ومستقبلها، إضافة إلى أن له تأثيرات إيجابية على مستوى القطاع العام الحكومي كونه يعتبر مشارك رئيسي في تنفيذ وإنجاز المشاريع التنموية، ومثال على ذلك، دور الجهاز المصرفي الإماراتي المتقدم ضمن معادلة التطور والنشاط العمراني المسجل على كافة الأنشطة والمجالات الاقتصادية، فضلاً عن اعتماد مختلف القطاعات عليه عند البدء بدراسة وتقييم المشاريع التي سيتم تنفيذها.

وبينت “المزايا” أن المصارف بشكل عام تعمل كمستشار وممول للمشاريع المنوي تنفيذها، حيث سجلت الخدمات المصرفية تطورات متسارعة لتكون مؤثرة وفاعلة في كافة الميادين، فضلاً عن أن مستويات المنافسة والتكامل بين المصارف وشركات التطوير العقاري وصلت إلى استهداف الطرفين المستثمرين من الأفراد والشركات لتقديم المزيد من العروض والتسهيلات على خطط السداد، بالإضافة إلى طرح المنتجات العقارية بمعدلات فائدة منافسة، الأمر الذي كان له تأثيرات إيجابية ملموسة على تنشيط الطلب على المنتجات العقارية.

وتحدثت “المزايا” عن حالة التفاؤل التي يظهرها المصرفيون في السوق الإماراتي، والتي تدور حول إمكانية نمو القروض العقارية، والتي تستهدف أيضاً كافة فئات الطلب من مستثمرين وأفراد من فئة المستخدم النهائي، والتي من ضمنها أصحاب الدخول المتوسطة، حيث تشير التقديرات إلى إمكانية أن تسجل القروض العقارية نمواً بنسبة تصل إلى 5% حتى نهاية العام الحالي، ويأتي ذلك بسبب تصنيف السوق العقارية الإماراتية في الوقت الحالي بسوق المستخدم النهائي والمستثمر الخارجي.

في المقابل فإن زيادة إقبال المستخدم النهائي على شراء العقار في الإمارات سيعمل على دعم تعافي السوق ونموه، فيما سيساهم رفع سقف التمويل للمقيمين إلى 89% في تعزيز أنشطة المصارف وتمكين شرائح جديدة من الاتجاه نحو الشراء، الأمر الذي من شأنه أن ينعكس على شكل موجة انتعاش مرتقبة جديدة خلال العام المقبل.

وذكرت “المزايا” أن الحصة الإجمالية للرهونات العقارية المنفذة في إمارة دبي قد وصلت إلى ما نسبته 65% من إجمالي الوحدات السكنية التي تم بيعها خلال النصف الأول من العام الحالي، الأمر الذي يشير إلى أن المزيد من الوحدات العقارية تم بيعها للمستخدم النهائي، حيث قامت المصارف بتمويل صفقات البيع والشراء، إضافة إلى أن نسب التصحيح السعري التي سجلتها السوق العقارية في دبي والتي تقدر بـ 15% منذ عام 2015، ساهمت في منح المنتجات العقارية مزيداً من الجاذبية السعرية للتملك.

وأشارت “المزايا” إلى جاذبية المنتجات للتمويل التي دفعت المصارف لتقديم حلول وخيارات متنوعة للتمويل وبأسعار فائدة تتناسب وشرائح أكبر من المتعاملين على مستوى العقارات السكنية والتجارية، وبشكل خاص مع توجه عدد كبير من المقيمين إلى شراء العقارات عوضاً عن استئجارها في ظل الأسعار السائدة، حيث عكست البيانات الصادرة عن دائرة الأراضي في دبي ارتفاع قيمة الصفقات العقارية بنسبة 16.8%، الأمر الذي يعكس مستوى الطلب الجيد والفرص الاستثمارية القابلة للتمويل.

وتطرقت “المزايا” إلى الارتفاع المسجل على مؤشرات الطلب على العقارات السكنية المتوسطة، والتي من شأنها أن ترفع من مستوى الطلب وزيادة قيمة صفقات الشراء والتمويل من المصارف العاملة في الدولة، حيث يعتبر ارتفاع وتيرة النشاط على العقارات السكنية المتوسطة تحولاً إيجابياً لدى السوق العقاري الإماراتي، الأمر الذي سيؤدي إلى تحول السوق العقاري إلى سوق مستهلكين نهائيين، إضافة إلى أنه من المتوقع أن يشهد السوق المزيد من المشاريع العقارية الضخمة، التي بدورها  ستسيطر على حصة مرتفعة من قوى العرض والطلب في الوقت الحالي، وبالتالي سترتفع فرص الاستثمار والتمويل من قبل المصارف على مستوى تمويل عمليات ومراحل التشييد والبناء، وتمويل صفقات الشراء عند التسليم النهائي لتلك المشاريع.

وأكدت “المزايا” أن الاتجاه نحو العقارات المتوسطة من شأنه أن ينعكس إيجاباً على استقرار ونضج السوق العقاري، ودفع الطبقة الوسطى للمساهمة في نمو السوق خلال فترات التراجع والركود، فيما ستحتفظ المنتجات العقارية الفاخرة على جاذبيتها على المستوى الاستثماري، وستظهر المصارف العاملة قدرتها واستعدادها لتوفير التمويل لكافة الفرص والطلبات إذا ما توافق ذلك مع برامج التمويل ذات العلاقة بالسوق العقاري المحلي والخارجي.

ولفتت “المزايا” إلى القطاع المصرفي الذي يعتبر شريك حقيقي في التنمية والنشاط العقاري والتجاري والاستثماري في الدولة، حيث تشير البيانات المتداولة إلى أن إجمالي الرهونات العقارية المنفذة في دبي منذ بداية التعافي من الأزمة المالية العالمية وحتى نهاية النصف الأول من العام الحالي وصلت إلى 366 مليار درهم، استحوذت القروض العقارية الممنوحة للمواطنين والمقيمين على ما نسبته 30% من إجمالي محفظة التسهيلات لدى القطاع المصرفي.

وقالت “المزايا” أن التطورات والتحديثات التي تشهدها الصناعة المصرفية والتطوير العقاري ستعمل على خفض التكاليف والزمن المطلوب والجودة النهائية للخدمات والمنتجات على حد سواء، فيما بات المناخ الاستثماري القوي عامل رئيسي في إنجاح خطط كل من القطاعين المصرفي والعقاري، مع الأخذ بعين الاعتبار تأثير القوانين الاقتصادية المرنة وسهولة ممارسة الأعمال والمزايا التي توفرها المناطق الحرة والاقتصادية المتخصصة التي لها دور كبير في تنشيط الحراك التجاري والاستثماري، ورفع الجاذبية للاستثمارات الخارجية.

واختتمت “المزايا” تقريرها بأن السوق الإماراتي شهد ارتفاع في عوائد الاستثمار العقاري ووصلت إلى متوسط سنوي قدره 12%، فيما ساهمت المشاريع العقارية التي تم الإعلان عنها منذ بداية العام الحالي والتي تقدر بقيمة 30 مليار درهم، في تطوير العلاقة بين المصارف وشركات التطوير العقاري والمستخدم النهائي، والتي ستفضي إلى طرح المزيد من المنتجات المصرفية التي تتناسب ونوع المشاريع والمنتجات العقارية المعروضة.

Shedding significant light on promising investment opportunities; fair prices; activities of brokers & speculators

 

Cityscape Global 2017 seeks to determine market efficiency; nature of demand & its sources; monitor negative indicators; forging solutions

 

Current pricing levels attract foreign investments, support end-users

The GCC real estate market is suffering from some fluctuations triggered by government spending plans, private sector strategies and the decline in liquidity levels. The focus is currently laid on the largest real estate event in the region to determine the nature of existing investment opportunities and how to utilise them. Cityscape Global 2017, which was held in Dubai last week, provided an opportunity for companies to determine the nature of demand, its sources and how to deal with the market over the coming period, creating opportunities for investors and end-users, while identifying types of transactions and prices prevalent on the market.

Al Mazaya Holding in its weekly report said that Cityscape Global in Dubai is a primary tool to assess how effective are current laws and legislation in regulating the workings of brokers and speculators as well as the performance of real estate agents who have played a major role in creating the price bubble which was witnessed over the past period and that led to the failure of many projects and the loss of savings. The report said that current prices are attractive for foreign investments and end-users alike.

Al Mazaya expressed concern that brokers and speculators may re-enter real estate markets and resume their activities in the region, targeting those real estate products offered by property companies in foreign markets. The report further elaborated that determining the real price level of investments on foreign markets seems more difficult than concluding how fair are current market prices.

Al Mazaya believes that there are tools that can monitor market performance, as prices, currently witnessed in most of the real estate markets, excluding the British property market, are attractive for end-users. Moreover, low prices generate opportunities to invest in real estate markets and pave the way for price hikes that are fair in some cases and unjustified in some others.

The report stressed the importance of Cityscape Global 2017 in identifying market efficiency, the nature of demand and its sources in addition to monitoring negative indicators and addressing them directly and efficiently.

This comes at a time when all platforms are waiting for the performance of real estate sectors and the nature of subsequent steps to be taken, as well as their positive impact on all parties across the board, said the report.

Al Mazaya suggests that the region’s property markets will recover over the coming period thanks to several factors, including diversity of real estate products offered on the regional and international markets and price attractiveness.

In this regard, the report mentioned that Kuwait has witnessed a good price correction movement of up to 30%, which is quite close to fair values after having seen unjustifiable record highs over the past period, led by real estate brokers and speculators, not to mention the lack of a balanced supply-demand set-up.

The Kuwaiti real estate market is currently witnessing an improvement in investors’ confidence due to the state of price stability reported over the past period.

Al Mazaya noted that the real estate market in Saudi Arabia is getting under control with the objective of reining in brokers and speculators, a positive approach which has started to yield satisfactory results. The recorded decline in prices of residential, investment and industrial land and homes, has contributed significantly to marginalising the role of speculators and licensed real estate brokers whose activities were a major factor behind the price bubble and stagnation witnessed over the past period and the difficulty in boosting citizens’ homeownership at fair prices.

The Saudi authorities concerned are taking precautionary measures to limit the role of speculators and brokers. This comes at a time when the Kingdom has issued a list of licensed real estate offices, imposing fines on owners of unlicensed real estate offices. The Saudi Ministry of Housing will begin in December to register violations made by real estate offices that don’t abide by “Ijar”, a mandatory system that makes it incumbent on licensed real estate agents to register lease contracts and residential online.

The report shed light on the performance of the British real estate market and the roles played by market brokers and speculators, particularly during the Brexit period, which will often result in further imbalances and will trigger pricing deviations that are difficult to avoid. Industry reports indicate that house prices in Britain witnessed a record high in August, increasing by 1.1%, and are expected to post a further hike of 2%.

Concluding, the report underlined the importance of real estate developers and companies maintaining the current price stability, forestalling a comeback by brokers and speculators, and focusing on economic diversification. The report also emphasised the importance of participating in real estate events and activities, being an excellent tool to determine the efficiency of laws and legislation that have been adopted to regulate the real estate sector. The report on this score singled out Dubai’s Cityscape Global, which, it said, has generated positive results thanks to the large number of participating companies and their diverse experience.

With 192 deals worth $32 billion

Gulf countries moving towards mergers to accelerate growth, attract foreign investments

Cityscape Global valuable opportunity to identify real estate trends at local, regional, global levels

Property markets in Gulf countries are going through multi-faceted challenges and volatilities, so more effective plans are needed to regulate workings of real estate companies. It will ensure market cohesion and enable them to prepare for the post-recession period by taking effective measures that enhance their competitiveness and help them launch viable projects. Therefore, real estate and non-real estate companies across all economic sectors now tend to merge so that they can address existing challenges amicably.

Al Mazaya Holding in its weekly real estate report said that mergers and acquisitions during the current period are a step in the right direction that is justifiable due to the challenging conditions all business sectors are going through. The report added that mergers can generate lots of investment opportunities. Such a tendency towards mergers proves that GCC markets are flexible and adaptable and can recover through the launch of SMEs, said the report, noting that mergers contribute to preventing further losses and to maintaining existing assets, therefore, avoiding further volatilities and weaknesses.

Al Mazaya added that the establishment of new financial and economic entities will help economies of the region resist domestic and foreign challenges and achieve high growth rates that will enable them to continue to implement development plans and attract more foreign investments.

Al Mazaya pointed to data on mergers and acquisitions that show a recovery in the first half of the year in the Middle East and North Africa region, remarking that up to 192 mergers were completed, with a total value of $32 billion during that period. They are primarily centred on the oil and gas sector, in addition to some activities recorded in the aviation, energy and utilities sectors. The banking and capital markets’ sector appears likewise to be expecting further mergers over the coming period, stated the report.

On the other hand, the retail and consumer products’ sectors tend to merge under changing conditions. Capital is set to be allocated to e-commerce and technology sectors, which will have a positive effect on the overall economic performance, proving that the region is still a source of capital flows, with investors still believing that the added economic value generated from mergers is greater than the risks associated with these mergers.

The report highlighted the challenges and obstacles that have had over the recent period a negative impact on the performance of real estate companies and financial centres, which witnessed many fluctuations and pressures resulting from the sharp decline in oil prices and the accompanying decrease in the level of investments and development spending. Such challenges pushed property companies to introduce many adjustments to their short and medium-term plans with a view to meeting the requirements of the current conditions. They turned to overseas real estate investments, whether through the development of residential and commercial projects or through the purchase of real estate projects including buildings and residential units in Turkey and other European countries and the US market.

The report explained that the achievement of more investment returns and the utilisation of stable economic conditions have been and will continue to be the main objective of real estate companies to overcome the current decline paths through the value and number of projects offered. The activity recorded in the tourism sector and the increasing numbers of population and tourist arrivals in Turkey and Egypt, in particular, have led Arabian Gulf companies to go for these markets to utilise the emerging high demand over there. In the meantime, low investment costs played a role in increasing the value of investments abroad, primarily in the British and American markets which are known for their high investment returns.

The report addressed the challenges faced by property and contracting companies in the Saudi market over the recent years, where many companies are likely to exit the market due to their inability to withstand besetting challenges, including payment of worker wages. Such circumstances reflect the challenges faced by the sector and the consequent negative impact on the economic performance as a whole, especially in case, the number of faltering companies and projects continue to increase.

The report said that the UAE is the second largest economy in the region after Saudi Arabia thanks to the flexibility of its economy and its policy of economic openness, including the adoption of laws and regulations flexible enough to cope with the rapid and multi-faceted developments currently witnessed in the region.

Al Mazaya believes that there is a great need for mergers in non-real estate sectors in the UAE as the market needs entities that are stronger and more competitive.

The next stage requires better preparation by all operating companies. Economic diversification plans need to be benchmarked against relevant international standards and criteria in order to ensure their success.

The UAE economy accounted for 46% of M&A transactions in the Middle East during 2016, with a total value of $56 billion, said the report, adding that the UAE market is expected to record M&A transactions worth over $18 billion by the end of the year across all sectors.

Al Mazaya also pointed to Cityscape Global 2017 in Dubai as a valuable opportunity to identify trends adopted by local, regional and international real estate markets. The property event will identify how far mergers and acquisitions are needed at the present stage. It is held in a timely manner to identify sources of demand, their nature and strength, and measure this demand against the property supply provided by operating real estate developers.

Al Mazaya concluded that the 16th edition of Cityscape Global 2017 is expected to witness a significant development. It comes amidst reports that property companies will be allowed to conduct direct sales during the event for the first time in 15 years. The participating companies are also expected to offer mouthwatering deals in terms of prices and payment plans to ensure a new correction for current prevailing prices and boost competitiveness and stimulate demand.

Myriad investment opportunities in the offing to boost homeownership levels

Saudi real estate sector developing comprehensive incentive plans

to draw investments to major cities

Property sector’s contribution to GDP increases to SAR128 billion by end of 2016, a growth of 6% since 2012

The real estate sector in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has secured considerable leaps over the past ten years in terms of projects, their scale and investment values. But the sector also faced many obstacles that stood before its development and growth until it reached its current levels of resistance, cohesion, strength, and competitiveness at the regional level. In the meantime, laws, and legislation in force have played a major role in curbing the development of the sector and its ability to attract investment flows, while the neighbouring markets have taken earlier initiatives and more efficient steps to develop their investment laws, streamlining cash inflows and foreign ownership.

In its weekly report, Al Mazaya Holding said that Saudi Arabia has focused over the past two years on the development of laws and regulations that enable the real estate sector to attract foreign investments – a positive transformation that is expected to strengthen the productive capacities of the country’s major economic sectors, and to lead to a strong, agile and competitive economic sector resilient enough to resist financial and economic crises.

Al Mazaya has indicated that the property market in Saudi Arabia is one of the most powerful in the Middle East.

Commercial and residential properties are the strongest catalysts for the Saudi real estate sector, which is primarily a rental- rather than an ownership-oriented market. Owned units across the entire Kingdom don’t exceed 46% of the existing properties, 56% of which are in the capital Riyadh. This indicates that there are many investment opportunities to raise this percentage and bring it up on par with that in the neighbouring markets if forces of supply and demand have been efficiently balanced and obstacles to raising ownership rates have been removed.

Al Mazaya report noted that the Kingdom’s mortgage laws have played a significant role in encouraging Saudi citizens to own homes, improving financing opportunities, and supporting the banking sector by providing financeable and mortgageable products. These laws, said the report, have also contributed to mitigating risks, regulating government support programmes and controlling prices.

Al Mazaya added that the Saudi real estate sector’s contribution to the country’s GDP increased to SAR 128 billion by the end of 2016, achieving a compound growth rate of 6% between 2012 and the end of 2016.

The new laws and legislation developed by the government over the recent period are aimed at reducing housing costs for Saudi citizens by bringing down land costs in addition to improving competitiveness levels, and contributing to maintaining positive growth rates over the coming years by developing integrated plans in line with the economic transformation strategy.

The weekly report also referred to the positive effects brought in by the law of imposing fees on unexploited land, estimated at 4 billion hectares, across the Kingdom. This law is part of the development of laws and legislations conducive to regulating the real estate market and reducing the unjustifiable increase in land prices. Authorities concerned, through this legislation, have sought to curb speculations on white lands – large plots of idle urban land — and to find solutions to the housing crisis and accelerate the pace of construction on the outskirts of cities and suburbs.

The report added that the comprehensive implementation of legislation related to the real estate sector will direct citizens towards owning homes at affordable prices, especially in view of the continuing housing crisis across the Kingdom. The coming years are expected to witness more positive effects on boosting the attractiveness of real estate investment in KSA, specially in major cities where vacant, undeveloped lands account for 20% of the total space.

Al Mazaya said that enactment of laws and amendment in legislation related to the real estate market and the financial and economic sector, in general, have been rapidly progressing over the past period, citing in this regard the tendency to allow foreign investors to acquire full ownership of companies in the health and education sectors. Such measures which are likely to attract investments and propel activities at the real estate sector are expected to generate investment opportunities worth more than $180 billion over the next five years.

Al Mazaya mentioned that despite the recession that the real estate market has faced for three years, and the accompanying declines and correction of trading prices and the resulting postponement of purchase and investment decisions on land and real estate products, the sector is still waiting for a further correction.

The benchmark index of prices has fallen by 14.4% in the past few years, declining 8.6% during the second quarter of this year compared to the same period last year, said the report, attributing this to continual pressures on the commercial and residential land sector.

On the other hand, the industry data reflect the positive effects of the package of laws and legislation being implemented and those still in the pipeline. The Saudi Ministry of Justice data shows that the total number of real estate transactions already conducted reached 714,000 since the beginning of this year. The banking sector has provided more than SAR110 billion in property financing, which reflects the size of investment opportunities that can be financed following the development of a robust legislative system and efficient incentive plans.

Concluding, the report stressed the importance of continuing to evaluate and analyse all challenges and risks faced by the real estate sector in Saudi Arabia during the current period, as the Kingdom is currently undergoing a process of restructuring, including a privatisation process targeting all economic sectors, in the forefront of which comes the real estate platform. The sector, according to the report, can be the largest beneficiary of the current financial and economic mobility if relevant laws and legislation go into force as planned, which will stimulate the performance of the economic sector in its entirety.

High liquidity reflecting positively on neighbouring markets

Dubai real estate market making great strides, maintaining attractiveness despite global economic challenges

Dubai projects exceed AED21 billion during H1 2017

During the first six months of 2017, the property market in Dubai witnessed a qualitative investment leap. It continues to grow in spite of all regional and global financial and economic challenges and pressures piled up by other real estate markets around the world. Challenges that are attributed to the fact that realty markets, in general, have a lot in common, including similar designs, spaces, and end-products, but differ in terms of costs and legislation.

In its weekly real estate report, Al Mazaya Holding said that the Dubai real estate market relies on luxury and sophisticated products and adopts modern design techniques to create new investment prospects that enable investors to benefit from the emirate’s resilient economy and high employment levels, ultimately boosting demand for all products, goods, and services.

The report pointed out that liquidity is often negatively affected by accumulating pressures, including myriad real estate auctions which absorb large chunks of liquidity from the real estate and capital markets. Political stability significantly impacts cash levels as those wishing to buy and invest in the real estate market prefer to postpone their decisions until they get a clear vision of ground realities.

Al Mazaya report explained that the more prices decline, the lower liquidity will be on the market, specially that amendments introduced by banks to raise interest rates on cash deposits would negatively accelerate cash withdrawals from the property markets, as stable returns are far better than volatile gains under unstable conditions.

The report noted that more than 68 real estate projects were launched worth over AED21 billion during the first half of this year, with the market attracting an increasing number of international investors, which ultimately boosts demand and confidence in the domestic economy.

Around 535 projects of different sizes and purposes were handed over to their new owners during the past ten years in addition to completing 24 projects during the first six months of the year.

The achievements made by the real estate market in Dubai are important indicators that must be considered in assessing its ability to move forward on the path of growth. The emirate’s realty market has become mature enough to take advantage of the emirate’s infrastructure boom and the country’s political and economic stability.

The report referred to the data released by the Dubai Land Department, which showed an exceptional diversity in the number of nationalities investing in the real estate market of the Emirate. According to the figures, around 217 nationalities invested in the emirate’s property market during the first half of 2017, with sales carried out during the same period hitting a new high of AED63 billion, showing an increase of 29 per cent compared to the first half of 2016. Real estate transactions set a new record of AED132 billion in the first half of 2017, an increase of 17 per cent over the same period of 2016. The data reflect the success achieved against the pre-set targets, as well as the emirate’s ability to attract local, regional and global capital.

Al Mazaya pointed to the investment returns that investors in the real estate sector can get by targeting promising investment opportunities generated by growing investment activities and increasing liquidity levels in the market. The data indicate that it is possible to get profit rates ranging between 5% and 30% while market indicators estimate returns at 20% – 30% if the hotel sector is targeted, given the high occupancy rates throughout the year and accelerated construction investments as well.

On the other hand, returns on residential real estate investments are still attractive. Current data indicate that 10% – 20% returns can be achieved, while an average yield of 5% – 8% can be achieved according to market indicators. Office spaces retain an interest rate ranging between 8% and 10%.

The report mentioned that all indicators addressing the real estate market in Dubai corroborate the positive ongoing activity across the sector during the second half of this year. In addition, the retail sector has a wider impact on the level of commercial and financial mobility and the value of liquidity generated and traded, together with growth and improvement across the tourism sector in the run-up to the World Expo 2020 Dubai.

It noted that real estate sales are still setting new records. The housing sector has approximately 8,000 residential units under construction that are expected to be delivered by 2020. This reflects the high level of ongoing activity, the volume of projects and the expected supply and prices. Corrections recorded in the apartment and flat sale prices ranged between 5% and 10%, and have played a major role in stimulating demand at the local, regional and global levels.

Al Mazaya concluded that the exceptional activity recorded by the Dubai real estate market during the first half of the year, which is expected to continue until the end of the year, will positively impact the financial and economic prospects in the emirate and rest of the country in addition to the entire region due to the significant volume of the market in terms of projects and their prices as well as demand levels.

-Dynamism produces diversified investment opportunities under all circumstances

-GCC economies are making a quantum leap in terms of global investments, development and growth plans

-Saudi Arabia to generate over $100 billion through Aramco IPO

– UAE seeks to increase non-oil sector’s GDP contributions to 25% by 2021

Recent data and indicators reveal that there are many investment opportunities that have been seized across all Gulf countries since they have embraced a comprehensive development drive. These investments have achieved multiple successes and were conducive to overcoming many of the challenges faced in the region, providing a financial-cum commercial momentum as a result of which an unlimited number of real estate and non-real estate projects as well as long-term growth and development plans and strategies have been launched.

Al Mazaya Holding in its weekly real estate report highlighted investment data purporting that the infrastructure sector was given high priority by investors while the real estate platform was prioritised by the governments and the private sector. The banking sector provided diversified services and posted impressive growth rates.

In the meantime, the health sector drew significant investments both to meet domestic demand and to develop medical tourism. The industrial sector has been prioritised by the governments as part of their diversification plans, while the energy sector has maintained its strategic investment importance, being the main source of cash flows in most of the regional countries.

Al Mazaya report added that the challenges and crises experienced by the countries of the region at present time are likely to create direct and indirect investment opportunities as more projects are being launched while the region’s governments are initiating a large number of mega projects which should have positive impacts on all sectors. The governments of the region have approved long-term development plans up to the year 2030 and medium-term plans up to 2020, to secure economic integration and attract foreign investment inflows over the coming period, besides laying focus on generating sustainable cash flows.

The weekly report said that the current incentive strategies for the economic sector will stimulate the pace of investment. In addition, they will identify more investment opportunities that suit all categories of current and potential investors across all economic and service sectors. In the meantime, the ongoing mega-projects are likely to invigorate the investment movement at supporting sectors, which play a major role in providing momentum to financial and economic activities and in achieving medium and long-term goals.

The report sheds light on the Saudi economy, which, it said, enjoys myriad financial and economic incentives at present, and boasts untapped investment opportunities, in line with the Saudi Vision 2030, including its privatisation plans that are expected to generate more than $100 billion through a 5 per cent IPO of the giant oil company Aramco, which will have a significant impact on government spending and sources of funding. The decision to open the Saudi capital market for foreigners is anticipated as well to ratchet up investments to around $20 billion.

Al Mazaya report pointed out that Saudi Vision aims to promote the saving concept among Saudi citizens, which will generate a lot of funds, contributing to the development of small and medium enterprises, and increasing the liquidity needed for seizing investment opportunities. In addition, many local and foreign banks are now seeking to expand their activities in the Saudi market, while several international banks are set to have a foothold in Saudi Arabia to get a share of available investment opportunities, including transactions to be conducted by the government.

The report also sheds light on the UAE economy, which has survived many of the crises and complexities it encountered over the past years and managed to generate viable investment opportunities. The report attributed this to the fact that the UAE economy is based on innovation to ensure its superiority and enhance its ability to deal with emerging challenges.

Al Mazaya pointed out that the UAE economy is currently undergoing a massive development process which will result in more investment opportunities that will include major development projects across several sectors, including energy, finance, business, small and medium-sized enterprises, education and training, infrastructure, health and industry, with the UAE government seeking to increase the industrial sector’s contribution to GDP to 25 per cent by 2021.

On the other hand, the Bahraini economy has been able to make tangible achievements in terms of overall development. Infrastructure projects have received increasing attention as the main driver of other economic sectors, especially the tourism and hotel platforms. The industrial sector witnessed more stimulus plans. Statistics by the Bahraini Industry, Trade and Tourism indicate that 170 licences were given to industrial projects in 2016 with a total value of $3.7 billion. In the meantime, it transpires that the value of direct support provided by the GCC countries to infrastructure and housing sector development projects reach around $10 billion.

The report stressed that the significant partnerships signed and those expected to be signed in the near future with global economic blocs, especially with the Eurozone countries and the British, American, Chinese and Turkish economies, will boost competitiveness and provide a good ground for private businesses to consider investment opportunities created by interested economies.

Concluding, the report expects the economies of the region to enter into new partnerships and agreements with active economies around the world over the coming period, in the implementation of the development and growth plans which are currently underway and which are expected to create good investment opportunities.

In light of the growth of non-oil sectors and their increasing contributions to Region’s GDP

The GCC property sector boasts distinctive appeal in meeting all types of domestic and foreign demand

Non-oil sector growth in GCC States projected to rise 3% until the end of the year

Current industry indicators show that the GCC real estate sector is ready to fulfil all types of domestic and foreign demands due to its diverse products and investment options. This is augmented by the price correction trends recorded in sale and purchase transactions, which are projected to continue in a gradual manner that will render real estate products more mouth-watering and fuel demand in active markets.

In its weekly real estate report, Al Mazaya Holding said that the real estate sector has become one of the most influential platforms in the region because of its economic and financial recovery activities. It is no longer surprising that the real estate sector plays a pivotal role in implementing medium and long-term developmental plans. In addition, the sector has become one of the mainstays of the economy all around the world.

The report mentioned that economic diversification plans and activities have gained more ground and efficiency than before. This is due to the stimulus packages and pressures which have created economic platforms that are active and stimulating for other streams such as tourism, processing industries and agriculture in some countries of the region. The sector, therefore, has turned to be one of the main enablers for economic growth and contributors to gross domestic product (GDP) of GCC states.

The report points out that oil continues to be one of the main catalysts for developing the real estate sector to be a major pillar of economy in the Gulf region, as the achievements made by metropolitan cities in the Gulf countries provide clear evidence of the importance of the real estate industry, with oil revenues still accounting for 90 per cent of income streams in Saudi Arabia and 93 per cent in Kuwait where the volume of liquidity in circulation continues to be the main determinant of government spending.

Tourism sector and infrastructure

Al Mazaya believes that there are direct factors that play a major role in supporting the real estate sector and its current and future projects. Atop of these factors is tourism, which is the biggest supporter of the real estate industry, as primarily seen in the influx of tourists to Dubai, Bahrain and Oman which is drawing property and non-real estate investments in myriad areas, including retail trade, accommodation and residential as well as luxury real estate, to these countries.

The report adds that there are other factors creating momentum in areas of real estate, trade and investment, notably the continuation of private sector infrastructure projects that manifest themselves in hosting global events, including the construction of hotels and related hospitality projects. Additionally, the population growth recorded in the main cities stimulates demand for housing units & utilities and revitalises construction investment. This is coupled with the role of governments in providing an investment-conducive climate to attract foreign capital inflows into the realty sector.

Ambitious projects and growth rates

The report also touches upon the nature of projects being implemented and their impact on the investment movement in general and on the real estate industry in particular. More than $1 trillion funds have been allocated to construction projects under execution in the GCC states. More than 200 enterprises are being executed in urban areas, in addition to aviation industry development projects worth more than $55 billion, bringing to 152 the number of projects in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman, which in their turn will fundamentally stimulate tourism, trade and investment.

Al Mazaya points out that the total value of railway sector developments projects in GCC states is estimated at $240 billion, which will reflect significantly on the movement of passengers and goods. In addition, these projects will facilitate the pace of investment for all major economic sectors, foremost of which is the real estate sector, ultimately spurring a growth rate of 3.4 per cent by the end of 2017.

Infrastructure enterprises and partnership with private sector

Available industry data indicate that Saudi Arabia needs investments of $613 billion in infrastructure until 2040. This comes at a time when the Kingdom is going to finance 80 per cent of the infrastructure projects and to accord a new role to the private sector to participate in maximising investment returns, which will help scale down the number of deferred or cancelled projects in the transport, construction and energy sectors. The report expects government spending on infrastructure and development projects will continue during the second half of this year, and support the private sector in direct and indirect ways. This comes at a time when GCC budgets reflect an increase in government spending on major infrastructure developments, which will accelerate construction of roads, power plants, water, ports and airports. A prime example in this regard is the momentum recorded in infrastructure investments in the UAE and its significant contributions to the country’s economic growth.

Performance of non-oil sectors and privatisation plans

The report highlights the plans and strategies being applied in the GCC states that it says will succeed in reducing existing fiscal deficits to below 2 per cent over the next five years. The growth rate of non-oil sectors in the GCC states is projected to increase by 3 per cent until the end of 2017, compared to 2 per cent in 2016. The privatisation porgrammes that the governments of the region plan to implement are anticipated to bring in myriad macroeconomic advantages, and to ease the burdens borne by the public budgets, with the real estate sector to enjoy investment opportunities created by the economic mobility and high liquidity values.

Availability of financing facilities and price corrections

Concluding, Al Mazaya corroborates the important role of financing channels in supporting and stabilising the pace of construction and funding of various real estate products. The Gulf banking sectors continue to provide the required financing in accordance with the approved credit frameworks and policies on the basis of return and risk calculations. The growth of transactions conducted until the end of the first half of this year reflects increasing financing options for real estate activities, with price correction trends in rental and other property transactions expected to lift the pace of activity and to stimulate demand over the remaining period of this year.

Growth in off-plan property sales reflects robust demand and confidence in GCC real estate market

Dubai records 50% rise in off-plan transactions in H1

The nature of real estate demand in the GCC states differs from that in other property markets across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and the world over, especially in the markets that follow the open market system and introduce freehold laws and regulations for non-citizens.

In its weekly real estate report, Al Mazaya Holding mentioned that the demand for off-plan properties is one of the most important indicators that gauge confidence and recovery for real estate sectors in GCC states, while other property options are available as well to meet different types of demand and incomes.

The diversity seen today in real estate products, including regular to medium to high-end, and the difference in prices according to location and classification, invigorates the real estate sector. It adds to the abundance of excellent investment opportunities in different categories, not to mention the favourable legislation and laws governing this business, and the effective role they play in protecting the rights of all parties concerned.

The report pointed out that off-plan sales and purchases have their pros and cons, noting that weaknesses must be minimised whenever possible to ensure the continuation of the current momentum enjoyed by this type of business thanks to its positive impact on the property market.

One of the most significant advantages of the off-plan system is the provision of low-cost financing to developers and creation of real estate products at competitive prices to buyers, as well as the availability of payment options less similar to specialised financing channels, said the report. It added that the off-plan system enables buyers to secure capital gains upon resale after property delivery, while developers usually offer discounts ranging from 15 per cent to 20 per cent to encourage investments and help secure initial project costs. Off-plan-associated easy payment options are another positivity added to other advantages, including the possibility of getting best available units within a project in advance.

On the other hand, the report said that off-plan properties still, however, carry risks despite the remarkable progress achieved by the laws and regulations governing this sector, which have been able to deal efficiently with these investment options after the negative results recorded due to the lack of laws preventing buyers from transferring ownership of unfinished property. Speculations used to have a profound negative impact on the real estate sector in many of the region’s markets during that time.

In addition, the inability of the buyer to identify the final product is a disadvantage of off-plan transactions, which leaves the buyer with only one option, i.e. to rely on the developer’s reputation in the market. The difficulty of getting access to finance for unfinished properties is an additional challenge for buyers of this type of property, specially in case there were no arrangements made between banks and developers to provide exclusive financing options.

Other challenges are the difficulty in determining the final delivery date, because of liquidity-related challenges, which may result in a buyer’s inability to move and live in the contracted property.

The report said that the UAE market in general and Dubai, in particular, took the lead in launching the off-plan concept and also took the initiative of introducing robust laws and regulations that prevent speculations and any imbalance in the forces of supply and demand, including property prices. The report highlighted the efforts which have been and are still being made to regulate the work of real estate agents region-wide, given the significant impact of this sector on the stability of the real estate market as a whole.

According to available data, the total value of off-plan transactions conducted in Dubai during the first half of this year is estimated at AED18 billion worth of selling 9,734 apartments and 2,794 residential villas, with the pace of activity recorded during H1 registering a rise of 50 per cent as compared to the same period of 2016. The report underscored the need to comprehensively consider the recorded data on account of its impact on improving investor confidence in the real estate market in the Emirate of Dubai and boosting positive sentiments in the construction sector and ultimately enhancing growth.

The report added that off-plan sales in the Saudi market are progressing gradually, while there is still a need for improving legislation for the market to be able to compete with other markets in the region. The total volume of off-plan sales across the Kingdom is valued at SAR48 billion. This comes within the programmes launched by the Ministry of Housing to increase the supply of housing units, which, reflects the positive effects the off-plan system has on real estate developers and construction companies.

These programmes also aim to reduce the cost of owning residential units for Saudi citizens, ensure transparency in the real estate market in the Kingdom and stimulate competition among developers. State departments in KSA are working to ensure full protection of the rights of all contracting parties, making it incumbent on real estate developers to conform with the models and specifications agreed upon in advance with their clients– measures which are likely to develop the construction sector and reduce speculations that have their bearing on projects and final prices.

Al Mazaya believes that the off-plan system is of more importance to real estate developers than to buyers and the market as a whole. The success of real estate developers in selling part or the entire project depends mainly on the developer’s reputation in the local or regional real estate market. Therefore, the developer who aims to embark on off-plan projects must build confidence-building measures with clients all through the implementation stages.

The existence of integrated mechanisms and efficient programmes to evaluate developers’ plans and enable buyers to learn from past experiences of developers would earn this business more transparency and stimulate developers to ensure faster and efficient execution of projects.

In addition, developers’ compliance with all legal requirements and procedures in accordance with relevant regulations will play a significant role in providing financing for the implementation of projects as planned. It is noted here that the authorities and departments concerned in Dubai obligate the developer before starting the sale, to own the land of the entire project and open a trust account where 20 per cent of a project’s estimated value is deposited along with the funds paid by the buyers.

The report stressed the fact that the decline in speculators’ dollar in the regional markets and the tightening of relevant laws have directly contributed to the development of the off-plan sector and the credibility and pace of its activity to the moment. The report explains in this respect that end-users now account for the largest percentage of demand recorded in the real estate markets in the region, which means more stability in prices and ultimately more protection of the rights of customers and buyers in the first place.

The report highlighted that the continued growth of off-plan sales has contributed in one way or another to maintain a positive momentum in the construction sector in the region.

As per circulating data, contracts during the first quarter of this year recorded a decline of 17 per cent compared to the same period last year. The construction sector in the UAE property market comes on top with contracts worth $10.8 billion, followed by the Saudi market with contracts worth $4.7 billion over the same period.

Including UAE, Turkey:

Vibrant property markets maintain competitiveness, driven by Britain

-Property transactions in Dubai exceed AED125 billion in H1

-London house prices projected to grow 3.7 per cent by the end of 2017

Investors’ loyalty towards certain markets has become the determining factor in selecting an investment destination rather than the availability of potential business opportunities.

Al Mazaya Holding in its weekly real estate report, attributed this to the maturity, clarity and legislative readiness enjoyed by many real estate markets across the globe, noting that availability of sufficient financing, credit facilities and cash inflows that match real estate developments are the major determinants of investment spending. The report added that investment opportunities in the real estate sector are available in distinct categories, spaces, rates and locations, only waiting for investors to strike their deals at the right time.

The report mentioned that the Brexit has neither resulted in tapping new property markets nor did it trigger an exodus of real estate investments from the Britain’s real estate market as it has already secured the confidence of investors from different parts of the world, maintaining its competitiveness overseas, particularly in the UAE.

The report added that property markets all over the world have come under different financial, economic and political pressures over the past period as a result of the economic instability suffered by oil-exporting countries, not to mention the state of political volatility that has had its own bearing on the overall scene.

Price corrections recorded in some property markets have helped create new investments, which capitalised on attractively low property rates, said the report. The Britain’s property market has maintained its price stability as a result of demand remaining at a level that has kept prices unchanged as yet, it added.

The report singled out the markets of Dubai, Turkey and Britain as among the most stable markets that enjoy high demand levels from individuals and institutions alike, with an increasing number of new real estate projects having been recorded over the past period at these markets that meet the needs of different categories of investors and potential buyers.

The real challenge faced by the British economy in general and its property market, in particular, lies in the sharp devaluation of the Pound which has had its own new impact on the living standards as well as on commodity and services prices, while property maintained price stability, with no rate hikes having been observed as yet.

The report added that London property market has not shown any sign of price retreat as was expected, given that house prices in Britain, however, have doubled as much as they were during the 2009 global financial crisis, with property rates spiralling from around 280,000 pounds to 470,000 pounds in 2016.

According to available data, house prices in London will grow 3.7 per cent by the end of the current year against 4.4 per cent last year, said the report. It added that the Britain’s real estate market enjoys incentives and stability levels never found in many property markets around the world, including 99-year freehold, with property owners having the power to dispose of their land at their discretion, including all buildings. Property investments in London depend as well on growth rates rather than income levels, not to mention the availability of robust legislation ensures the protection of local and foreign investors’ rights.

The report maintained that diversity of investment opportunities in more than one market won’t have a negative impact on Gulf investors wishing to have a foothold in foreign markets, adding that devaluation of Pound against US dollar is likely to attract UAE, Qatari, Saudi and Kuwaiti investors to Britain’s property market as it will trigger a fall in house prices and help draw more real estate investments.

The report expects Gulf investments in Britain to undertake a radical shift, as Gulf investors have become more interested in the hospitality sector than in purchasing houses for personal use with a view to benefiting from the high returns generated by the tourism sector all year round. Statistics show that around 2.7 billion pounds of Gulf investments have been funneled into the hotel sector in the UK last year, with 4 per cent of Britons expecting a hike in property prices following the Brexit, which shows that the decision to withdraw from the European Union will reflect positively on the real estate market, including houses and offices.

In the meantime, neither political instability nor currency devaluation has obstructed foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into the Turkish economy during the current year, with available data pointing to a noticeable increase in Turkish investments overseas, which reflects the Turkish economy’s ability to generate cash inflows through internal and external investments.

Data released by Turkey’s Central Bank revealed a 65 per cent increase in FDI during H1 of 2017 to $3.6 billion, with Turkish investments overseas up 9 per cent to $2.4 billion. The country managed to draw $3.6 billion in foreign investments until April 2017, a growth of 2 per cent over the last year, most of which are centred in areas of retail trade, property and construction. Residential rates posted record highs over the past five years, with an annual average rise of 90 per cent. Istanbul got the lion’s share of foreigners’ property purchases and the total number of real estate units sold during the first three months of the year hit 4,270.

In Dubai, the uptrend continues, with research data showing an increasing demand for land sales and mortgages, exceeding AED125 billion in value over the H1 as a direct result of the current active movement that culminated in pumping $40 million of real estate projects, which reflects the current and future potential of local and foreign demand for the emirate’s property.

The Dubai real estate market is capable of meeting investors’ needs, said the report, noting that the demand is focused on the hospitality, retail trade, and leisure sectors along with luxury apartments. Dubai, the report emphasised, is now in a position to benefit from all the developments witnessed in regional and global property markets thanks to its highly competitive edge in terms of attracting investors and tourists from different parts of the world.

Amid growing need for private-public partnership

-Gulf Region requires to ensure financial, economic, political stability

to maintain investment inflows

-UAE ranked 16th globally by World Competitiveness Report 2016-2017

The Arabian Gulf countries come on top of the world’s most investment-conducive nations thanks to the diverse investment opportunities they abound in, with all investment projects implemented in the region over the past years having borne fruits in a way that exceeded all expectations. These success stories are undoubtedly attributable to the positive role played by the region’s governments in developing effective investment and development plans that have yielded positive returns.

In its weekly real estate report, Al Mazaya Holding states that more constructive plans and efforts are needed over the coming period for the regional countries to reach the aspired pan-economic and financial integration required to survive the ongoing headwinds, specially that some economic tracks have shown negative symptoms that have had their own bearing on the investment landscape, not to mention the state of political tension boiling over the region that could result in an exodus of foreign investments.

The report added that despite the continued efforts being made across the private and public sectors, the pressures the economic and financial areas in the region are facing have resulted in wasting multiple investment opportunities that could have added enormous value to the regional economies.

In this respect, the report mentioned, a large number of economic projects and blocs have seen the light over the past period at the global level and generated significant economic values. And in some countries, the financial returns generated by these projects have surpassed the expectations. The report added that the GCC region boasts a lot of potential and advantages that could enable its countries to continue to forge ahead with the current projects and even launch new developmental and production-oriented enterprises over the coming period on the condition that financial, economic and political stability have been restored in addition to providing comprehensive developmental strategies over the medium term that can be adjusted if necessity arises.

The report said that regional countries enjoy a competitive edge in terms of investment, including security, stability and high cash inflows in addition to robust legislation that ensures full protection for foreign investments. In this regard, it singled out the United Arab Emirates as the region’s favourite destination for Arab and foreign investments thanks to a number of advantages, including stability, security, economic resilience, flexible legislation and business–friendly environment that entices different segments of investors.

The report maintained that the UAE is currently working on multiplying prospects for foreign investment growth, including providing myriad incentives for giant companies and business entities to gain a foothold on the UAE market and establishing economic partnerships with different world countries. This policy has enabled the country to draw accumulated foreign investments estimated at $118 billion by the end of 2016.

Foreign investments in the UAE are particularly centred in processing and heavy industries, including aluminium, and petrochemicals, in addition to tourism and aviation. The country ranked 16th globally on the World Competitiveness Report 2016-2017 which serves as an international testament to the successes achieved by the country’s domestic economy.

In the meantime, the report said, the Saudi Arabia’s economy is still in a position to secure investment successes in the coming period, pointing out that the value of investments until the end of 2016 amounted to $7.5 billion, with the transformational plans now adopted by the Saudi government expected to yield positive returns in the coming period, as it lays a special focus on strengthening the private sector contributions to the national economy and boosting competitiveness on the global level.

The report mentioned that the KSA is providing significant contributions to the global economy and helping stabilise world economic growth, noting that the decreasing government debt rate is likely to help draw more investments to the country in the coming period and pave the ground for executing more infrastructure and developmental enterprises.

It added, however, that the road is still long and onerous for the regional countries to ensure economic integration, citing the current geopolitical challenges as having a negative impact on potential investment inflows, causing considerable investments to flee the region to other markets.

In the meantime, the report noted that foreign direct investment (FDI) to other parts of the world is likewise facing headwinds, with foreign investment inflows to areas with less growth rates having decreased 13 per cent, while advanced economies witnessed an increase of 4.9 per cent in FDI to one trillion dollars over the past period, particularly in Europe, Canada, USA, Australia and Japan.

The report added that privatisation plays a significant role in propelling FDI, noting that developing economies have failed to secure the planned investment growth despite their need for considerable investments in areas of energy, water, and education. The development plans launched by the governments of the region and private sector require billions of dollars to ensure proper development before 2030, said the report, explaining that such plans are based on diversifying economic resources and income streams to ensure economic resilience, stability, and confidence.

Concluding, the report underlined the importance of reinforcing pillars of financial, economic and political stability to maintain investors’ confidence at a satisfactory level that promotes growth plans and ensures sustainable investment inflows into all economic sectors.

Saudi investments account for 80% of Gulf property businesses in Bahrain

-Bahrain’s property market safe haven for real estate developers, investors

-Competitive environment, robust growth despite local, regional, global pressures

Despite local, regional and global business pressures investment promotion efforts in Bahrain are forging ahead, exceeding expectations, creating good business opportunities and consolidating the Bahraini real estate sector in a way that has helped the economy survive heavy losses and avoid an exodus of local and multinational investments, according to Al Mazaya Holding Weekly Real Estate Report.

The report attributed the competitive edge enjoyed by the Bahraini real estate market to the robust legislation enacted by the government, including a resilient freehold system and the self-sponsorship permit which is governed by rules and regulations according to the Bahraini Law. Such flexible regulations have encouraged investors to have smooth access to the Bahraini market, with the government showing full commitment to ensuring a business environment that is considered the most flexible and agile across the GCC region, on account of the several privileges provided, including a tax-free environment for private companies and capital profits along with free transfer of profits and capital.

In the meantime, the decline in rental costs of office spaces and industrial plots besides the 100 per cent foreign ownership of trade and property assets are additional factors that stimulate investments in Bahrain, with statistics indicating that property investment returns hit around 10-12 per cent for rentals and 40 per cent for sales. The report attributed the improved returns to the recent efforts made by the government to amend and update its legislation in a way that meets the industry requirements and ensure the rights of all parties concerned. Now more focus is being laid on developing additional legislation that addresses ailing real estate businesses, which is estimated at BHD473 million.

The report noted that the Bahraini property market posted satisfactory performance during the Q1, 2017 in terms of deals and sales done as well as property in supply, which reflects the fact that supply outpaces demand in various parts of the Kingdom and consequently leads to further decline in rentals. Such a condition will create more competition among developers and owners to supply high-quality products at competitive prices, said the report.

Potential tenants are now provided with a plethora of options, with current data indicating that apartment rates declined by 8 per cent and villas by 7 per cent, with rental rates projected to further plummet over the coming period while office space rates remained stable till the end of the Q1.

The report mentioned that the Bahraini property market is generating promising investment opportunities as compared to other neighbouring economies with the Kingdom classified among the best investment-conducive environments in the region.

The report highlighted the multi-purpose enterprises provided in Bahrain which meet different economic needs and reflect the considerable cash levels available, with data showing that the total value of property transactions conducted during the first quarter of the year surged to around BHD 290 million.

It added that the Kingdom of Bahrain is in the same time-making tangible efforts to develop tourism and retail trade, with infrastructure investments enjoying official support from the government, primarily those developments closely related to construction of roads, bridges and airports which are considered among the key economic enablers in line with medium and long-term development plans.

The report also highlighted the negative impact of the falling global oil prices and the consequent plummet in revenues and returns, which in return necessitated the development of new spending priorities by the regional countries and have had their own negative bearing on all economic sectors, including the real estate platform. However, the Bahraini market, added the report, has proved its ability to survive challenges and to continue to grow on the back of a setof catalysts, primarily a plenty of Gulf investments in the kingdom, particularly Saudi investments which account for 80 per cent of Gulf real estate business in Bahrain.

The latest developments in the region are likely to fuel risk all over the region and create more challenges which are expected to be utilised by the Bahraini market to attract more investment inflows thanks to its exceptional business environment and robust growth levels.

Concluding, the report said that ailing real estate developments are still within a limited level thanks to the robust legislation enacted by the Bahrain government to protect the rights of all parties concerned. Bahrain is considered among the first countries that applied efficient policies to ensure economic freedom, and its efficient policies and regulations have made the Kingdom a safe haven for real estate investors and development companies.

Saudi Arabia seeks to diversify economy to secure high yields across all economic platforms

 

Saudi government’s plans are aimed to remove negative practices and develop fundamental solutions to optimise real estate sector performance

 

Non-oil revenues double over past two years to SAR 200 billion

The finance, real estate and energy sectors are the key drivers of the Saudi Arabia’s economic growth and prosperity. Current research studies point out that the future strategy of the Kingdom fundamentally relies on these sectors which will continue over the coming period to be the centrepiece of the government’s focus, creating the momentum needed to accelerate the achievement of aspired objectives.

In its weekly real estate report, Al Mazaya Holding highlighted that Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s ascension to power as the Saudi Crown Prince will reflect positively on the local and regional levels, particularly with regards to the oil sector. The Saudi Crown Prince will chart a strategic path for the Kingdom to wean its economy off oil as the main engine of the local economy.

The report mentioned that the Saudi economy boasts enormous potential that will help it achieve many of the ongoing plans, adding that the reliance on one mere source of economy can’t ensure economic stability and improvement at the medium – or long – terms as diversification of economic sources is the only way to secure high yields from diverse economic platforms.

The fast-paced and discrete political developments taking place inside the ruling regime in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are likely to reflect positively on the Kingdom at large and extend benefits to the Middle East region in its entirety thanks to the ambitious plans led by the Saudi Crown Prince which are primarily based on increasing oil prices and stabilising the energy market by ensuring a balance between market forces – demand and supply – and revitalising investments. Current data points out that non-oil resources have doubled over the past two years to SAR 200 billion, with the budget deficit still below previous forecasts and reportedly would never exceed 30 per cent of the total revenues, with the government seeking to decrease unemployment to less than 7 per cent.

The report referred to the congruous relation now being created between the private and public sectors in Saudi Arabia where roles and responsibilities are reciprocally exchanged in a way that serves the overall plans and strategies, given the fact that the Saudi economy used to be run by state departments only, without real distribution of roles and responsibilities among other players, therefore, falling short of best international practices followed by highly developed countries.

At present, the private sector in the Kingdom is required more than ever before to assume real roles under the Saudi Vision 2030. The sector has to be part and parcel of all long-term development enterprises and a major driver for accelerating the non-oil gross domestic product. Under this vision, the private sector’s contribution to the GDP should jump from 40 per cent to 65 per cent, with small-scale establishments’ contributions to increase from 20 per cent to 35 per cent, which entails an accelerated launch of new investments by the private sector across all economic platforms, particularly the essential ones which are known for their slow growth and decelerated returns.

The report highlighted the potential positive impact the latest political developments in Saudi Arabia would have on the economy, particularly with regards to the property sector which is still coming under strong headwinds and deceleration despite all the measures introduced by the Saudi government that aim to remove all negative practices and develop fundamental solutions to several challenges, including provision of financial support and loans to Saudi nationals for streamlining their property ownership.

In the meantime, development plans are ongoing on a regular basis, with current data indicating a significant increase in under-construction property developments which amounted to SAR 940 billion, a 33 per cent of which is claimed by the energy sector, a 9 per cent by the construction sector and a 27 per cent by the transportation sector, whereas studies are under way to evaluate the progress achieved hitherto in implementing government-run companies’ privatisation stages.

The report mentioned that the public and private sectors in the Kingdom presently target three primary areas at the real estate market. Residential units is on top followed by office spaces and then the leisure and hospitality sector. The government now focuses its efforts on developing efficient regulations for the residential sector, including enforcement of the Unified Lease Contract issued in February 2017 which is aimed at accelerating development of more residential units, creating an investment-conducive environment and boosting consumer’s confidence in the housing sector, as low-cost residential units are still the favorites option for all segments of society.

In the meantime, the report highlighted a 9 per cent drop in rentals during the Q1 2017 following the government’s announced plans to launch more than one million apartments at easy loans as part of its housing programme which is due to be up for grabs by the Q3 this year. Office spaces retained their activity and even recorded growth following the noticeable demand from the healthcare sector, said the report, adding that government projects to develop the leisure sector are expected to continue, with more of such developments projected to be launched over the coming period, including shopping centres, to revitalise the trade and visitors’ movement.

The report also shed light on the challenges met by the Saudi property market during the H1 2017, primarily shortage of liquidity, which pushed the volume of real estate transactions down by 10.7 per cent, with property trading value during the H1 down by around 39 per cent to SAR 46.7 billion from SAR 75 billion last year – figures that reflect a liquidity crunch and demand deceleration.

The report concluded by affirming that the fast–paced developments witnessed in Saudi Arabia are likely to create a momentum toward the financial and economic sectors, with the Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s ascension to powers expected to secure a gigantic leap in the financial and economic performance overall.

World Bank: Jordan’s economy to post 2.3% growth in 2017

 

Jordanian property market shows signs of recovery, stability despite economic pressures

 

Jordanian properties retain market value thanks to resilience of banking sector and promising real estate opportunities

Jordan’s real estate market has shown significant positive signs over the past period on the back of continued demand by Jordanians and residents coming from neighbouring countries, which has ultimately contributed to keeping the prevailing rates unchanged as a direct result of the tremendous population growth witnessed by the Kingdom over the past ten years.

In its weekly real estate report, Al Mazaya Holding said Jordan’s real estate market provides a key to many of the political problems witnessed in neighbouring countries. Latest data indicates that although the market has not fully picked up and recovered from the price fall across the region, it still retains its value, competitive edge and an investment-conducive environment.

The report mentioned that the recent measures taken by the Jordanian government play an important role in rejuvenating the real estate sector. These include increasing tax exemptions to enable wider segments of society to own appropriate housing units that match their purchasing power. Additionally, positive legislation reflects conveniently on the market and economy, which regulates the freehold investment relations with non-Jordanians in a flexible way that would not impinge on the country’s demographics, and would not allow hot money to be invested in primary sectors which don’t tolerate random speculations or short-term, drastic trends for correction.

The report noted that the Jordanian real estate market has gone through contradicting developments since the beginning of the year, with property sales having reportedly declined by up to 6 per cent during the first quarter of the year during which real estate transactions declined compared to the same period last year, going down to JOD 1.5 billion, with sales falling by 10 per cent during the same period. Apartment sales retreated by 11 per cent while land sales decreased by around 10 per cent on an annual basis.

In the meantime, real estate transactions dropped to JOD 2.7 billion until May 2017 from JOD 2.5 billion during the same period last year – 7 per cent down. With tax exemptions for apartments falling as well by 11 per cent until April, the capital Amman recorded 74 per cent of the total volume of transactions.

The report highlighted the strengths of the Jordanian real estate market which earned the sector an important ranking as one of the most important emerging markets in terms of market value, forces of demand and supply and investment competitiveness.

The Jordan’s property market has seen a jumbo leap in areas of high-rise building and urban development, coupled with a rising number of skyscrapers that were not common in the market before. In the meantime, a couple of housing investment developments have been launched across the Kingdom along with a large number of tourist projects aimed to enliven the tourism sector and provide diverse hospitality services.

The number of real estate investors has been significantly increasing over the past few years as a direct result of the state of political and economic instability witnessed across the Middle East.

The report noted that the stability boasted by Jordan’s market has contributed to propelling demand among Jordanians in the first place, increasing capital inflows coming in from neighbouring countries to launch mega property developments.

The report stressed that the Jordanian market has good levels of liquidity, with the magnitude of the kingdom’s banking sector playing a significant role in advancing real estate investments.

The report added that real estate and non-real estate investments in Jordan are directly affected by Gulf economies where a large number of Jordanians are working. The fact that Gulf nations are now in the process of replacing foreign workforce with national manpower is likely to reflect positively on the Jordanian market if proper measures have been taken to ideally benefit a large number of Jordanian expats coming back from Gulf countries.

Concluding, the report said Jordan’s real estate market abounds in promising investment opportunities and it is still considered among the major economic sectors in the country despite all besetting challenges. The report cited recent World Bank report which highlighted the country’s ability to post a growth rate of 2.3 per cent for the current year that will reach 2.6 per cent by 2018. Several United States companies reportedly seeking to utilise the investment opportunities generated by the economy at the current period, which means launching long-term economic and trade partnerships with the US that are likely to reflect favourably on the economic diversification plans, and ultimately ensure further stability and growth.

Amidst noticeable growth in realty transactions and number of new investors

UAE property market retains investors’ confidence despite headwinds, holds further prospects for growth

Around AED20 billion is average monthly property transactions in Dubai

Liquidity crunch will continue to be the major concern in the region and rest of the world over the coming period, with most of the economic platforms facing mounting multifaceted pressures that have their own bearing on the level of capital flows available on the markets. Cash levels, according to the current data, are getting more dependent on business and political sentiments prevailing and on the approaches adopted by countries to control or tap cash flows.

In its weekly real estate report, Al Mazaya Holding said that the financial, economic and political pressures faced across the region are not new, but rather go back to many years ago, causing to hurl main economic sectors into a critical state of deceleration and recession, not to mention the growing risks now associated with different types of investments. Specifically, the real estate sector has suffered a lot from the liquidity crunch that has impacted the forces of supply and demand and ultimately affected the overall economic activity.

Most of these pressures, the report said, emanated from uncontrollable economic and financial developments, but reform plans and schemes adopted by countries concerned have contributed to improving economic circumstances and regaining investors’ confidence that helped recover part of the liquidity lost and survive many of the complications and challenges they had faced.

The report mentioned that the UAE real estate sector is resilient and buoyant enough to resist and grapple with the current pressures thanks to the massive investment base it enjoys and the economic incentives and developmental plans launched by the government from time to time, noting that other neighbouring economies are more likely to get affected by the current challenges.

The Dubai real estate market, for example, has posted high levels of liquidity thanks to the billions of dirham generated by the real estate transactions conducted since the beginning of the year, the report said. According to the Dubai Land Department data, property transactions hit a total of AED26.6 billion during January 2017 and AED15 billion in February, rising to AED21.7 billion in March before edging down to AED18 billion in April. The month of May recorded a significant growth of 88 per cent over the corresponding period last year, ratcheting up the value of property transactions to AED20.7 billion, with the first week of June retaining a normal business movement at AED4.1 billion. The report attributed the boom to the positive purchase incentives, including easy-payment plans and competitive rates provided by the UAE-based banks. The report underscored in this regard the importance of continuing efforts to keep the momentum running and maintaining the current high level of cash inflows in order to sidestep any potential pressures and challenges.

The report also attributed the positive mood in the UAE property market to the robust legislative framework laid down by the UAE government. Additionally, the transparency and credibility help developers launch medium and long-term plans and strategies that help the market maintain its competitive edge and retain its favourite status as one of the region’s, and rather the world’s, best real estate investment havens. The report added that the UAE government consistently launches price-correction plans that support the ‘shift from rent to own” among investors who accordingly seek to seize the investment opportunities available and make use of the tremendous advantages provided to real estate developers.

The report stated that the mechanisms of gauging property markets should be based on an overall review and comprehensive benchmarking with other markets, explaining that appraising market performance according to a price retreat trend and accordingly opting for a price correction process is an unreasonable approach. In this regard, the report cited the growing level of investors’ confidence witnessed in the UAE property market since the beginning of the year hitherto and the rapid growth posted in terms of real estate transactions and number of new investors, as indictors that the demand will continue to grow over the coming period to new higher levels. The plans announced by the Emirate of Dubai recently to increase the number of tourists to exceed the 25 million mark in addition to the continued population growth are all factors that are likely to reflect positively on the level of demand.

Increased liquidity levels at the UAE Central Bank and the improvement in deposit levels and financing options noticed since the end of the last year are other signs that the UAE real estate sector is capable of tackling different forms of pressures and challenges.

Concluding, the report said the UAE has a stable and resilient financial system that effectively contributes to the country’s economic diversification programme and restructuring reforms that help safeguard the country against financial and political headwinds. The report, in this regard, pointed to the significant growth recorded in real estate loans during 2016, which reflects improved sentiments among real estate and non-real estate investors. The report added that the UAE market, in addition, is among the best beneficiaries of current geopolitical developments in the region thanks to its strong infrastructure, diversity and growth prospects.

Al Mazaya Weekly Report

 

Real estate demand in Egypt expected to grow

up to 70% by year-end

Dubai retains its safe haven status for real estate investments

Property investments prove strong shield against economic headwinds

Property investments across the Gulf region have proved to be a strong shield protecting the regional economy and enabling GCC states to grapple with the ramifications of besetting financial crises. Most of the real estate investments typically retain their original market value, with each market boasting its own peculiar features that hold high demand in times of economic recovery, and fair in times of crisis — a fact that keeps the business running under all circumstances.

According to Al Mazaya Weekly Real Estate Report, property investments create attractive business opportunities and yield positive and sustainable returns driven by growing demand and sustained significant contributions to other economic platforms — a fact which is translated in the sector getting the largest share of liquidity in comparison with all other economic platforms. The report indicated that the economic and financial developments, the region has been going through all over the past period, have strengthened the real estate sector and helped diversify projects launched in this vital sector of the regional economy.

The report added that the risks associated with real estate investments are confined to their volatile returns caused by external economic pressures, with real estate assets having consistently proved to be resilient enough to keep their original values, which are always set to grow and secure high returns, be it residential, commercial, or industrial property. Likewise, land investments have proved their worth under all market circumstances, a fact verified by land rates never declining despite all economic challenges seen by the region.

The report highlighted the requirements needed to be met in order to ensure sustainable investment returns from the real estate sector and to safeguard this fundamental economic platform against economic headwinds blowing through the region. Atop these requirements, as per the report, is the stability of global oil prices, with GCC governments needed to adopt precautionary austere measures in preparation for the post-oil era.

The report pointed out that there are divergent speculations and forecasts associated with the real estate sector across the region based on the nature of spending measures adopted by each country and its financial status, with local economies needed now more than ever before to develop strong potential for growth and competitiveness so that they can stand up to global and regional economic fluctuations and vulnerabilities. GCC states are required, the report said, to shift to the knowledge-based, diversified economy model and work for best utilizing their enviable strategic locations as well as developing their infrastructure in a way that serves and meet the needs of all economic sectors besides creating economic catalysts and investment incentives conducive to consolidating their investment environments.

The report in this regard underscored the importance of ensuring consistent capital inflows and financing solutions on the back of a robust legislative and regulatory infrastructure that enables the realty markets to secure positive returns and further increase investors’ trust under all circumstances.

The report cited the Egyptian real estate sector as the best example embodying the importance of property investments over the long run. Despite the state of anticipation and hesitation looming every now and then, Egyptians still deal with real estate investments as a safe haven to protect their savings in anticipation of inflation-related crises that deplete the purchasing powers of all segments of society, regardless of their income levels and the social class they belong to.

Recent data indicate consistently growing real estate demand in Egypt, with property rates have increased by up to 30 per cent in less than three months, said the report, expecting prices to continue to grow by up to 70 per cent towards the end of the year. Citing factors, the report mentioned the rising cost of building materials, interior design & finishing works besides the recorded growth in demand and snowballing speculations.

The UAE property sector, meanwhile, has proved to be the main determinant for real estate development and investments across the GCC markets, with the Dubai realty market considered a safe haven for local and foreign investments alike, said the report, highlighting a considerable inflow of funds amounting to AED91 billion during 2016, with property transactions reaching a decent level of AED259 billion during the same period. New projects worth more than AED100 billion were launched last year, said the report, adding that a large number of existing projects have already been completed to meet demands of different segments of society.

The report in this regard highlighted the countless advantages boasted by Dubai, including its investment-conducive environment, a robust economy which has helped the emirate’s property market exceed expectations over five years in a row, since 2012, increasing investment returns of more than 9 per cent annually, growing investors’ confidence, and robust legislations and regulations that safeguard rights of all parties, ultimately helping the emirate retain its safe haven status for investment.

Concluding, the report said that long-term real estate investments will continue to be the best business option at property markets across the world, with profit levels to continue to be a strong investment determinant. Both anticipated and unanticipated fluctuations and volatilities recorded by real estate sectors from time to time will likewise continue to create new investment opportunities for all segments of society.

Due to residential oversupply and growing economic pressures

Rental rates falling across GCC property markets, amidst marked tendency towards homeownership

Recent real estate market data of Gulf countries have indicated numerous shifts in terms of supply and demand as all major property developers in the region are opting for carefully calculated and well-thought-out projects and products to boost economic growth.

Property options are increasing amidst a marked trend among real estate developers to change focus from renting to homeownership patterns by offering more flexible and easy instalment plans.

Al Mazaya Holding Weekly Real Estate Report mentioned that the region’s property markets are witnessing a series of positive and negative changes including the decrease in rentals. It reflected positively on the tendency to purchase the property. Rental rates are expected to plummet further by the end of the year.

Financial and economic developments at regional and global levels directly affected the region’s realty markets, which are primarily impacted by demand and supply gap at all times.

The report added that the decline in rental rates since 2016 to-date came in line with all previous expectations. Abu Dhabi rental rates are falling by an average of 7 per cent during the first quarter of the year, while luxury flats are going further down by 10 per cent. Villa rentals are decreasing by 5 per cent and apartment sales are also edging down by 5 per cent on average.

Office spaces lease rates fell by 7 per cent amidst slowing demand and rising supply of new inventory that accelerated the handover of new projects which ultimately caused prices to retreat. Cutting down employees’ housing allowances by a number of companies have its own bearing on demand rates, which are expected to keep their current level over the coming few years.

In Dubai, a state of deceleration is continuing as a result of the corrective measures taken, which should reflect positively on sales and rental operations, said the report, adding that the besetting economic and financial pressures have driven residential rates down to all-time lows.

The report stated that more than 2,600 apartments and townhouses have been added to the market in Dubai during Q1 2017, with 28,000 more expected to be completed by the end of the current year. Vacant office and administration spaces reached 14 per cent, it added.

The report revealed that villa rental rates went down by 8 per cent while apartment rates decreased by 3 per cent during 2016. The report affirmed that low prices are likely to encourage homeownership, causing rental operations to further down.

Regarding Qatar market, the report said last year the realty market witnessed a state of recession which is still continuing this year despite the current stability recorded with regards to office and residential rentals that plunged 15 per cent recently in the wake of economic challenges surrounding the region.

The Qatari property market is heavily dependent on oil & gas rates, said the report, adding that the increasing supply of residential and commercial units over the past period has pushed prices down. The tendency to increase the occupancy rate of the hospitality sector by launching more projects has ratcheted up supply in a way that has further brought prices remarkably down, the report revealed. It is noted that Qatar is planning to provide more than 60,000 hotel apartments in the run-up to the FIFA World Cup 2022.

In Bahrain, the report attributed the fall in prices to the oversupply of residential units.

The report expected that the continued fall in rental prices as well as the prevailing low purchasing prices would encourage GCC nationals, residents and foreign investors to buy different types of properties rather than leasing. However, the report predicts economic pressures in the region including rising interest rates are likely to trigger a fall in the purchasing power in the wake of the continued drop in oil prices.

The report concluded that increasing supply of properties over the current and coming periods will typically augment the residential market, ultimately leading to more plummets in rates and investment returns amidst retreating demand rates and noticeable deceleration in growth.

The Region’s Property Markets are Poised for More Promotional Campaigns to Increase Local and Foreign Investments

The campaigns will help to secure cash needed for ongoing projects and revitalise demand

In response to the fluctuating market conditions across the region, the Gulf property sector has adopted a set of flexible promotional tools and campaigns that meet the requirements of the multi-faceted developments taking place. These include fast-paced business ups and downs observed throughout the GCC states.

With each of the region’s markets having its own distinctive peculiarities, a multi-pronged approach is needed for each accounting period in order to come up with an ideal mechanism that can generate reasonable investment returns. Al Mazaya Weekly Real Estate Report confirmed that the positive yields generated over the past period will help render current real estate marketing plans a success, both at the regional and global levels.

The report noted that foreign companies now tend to pump more liquidity to property investments in active markets, making use of the high annual returns of real estate investments and the current economic and political stability enjoyed by the GCC states. This enhances their competitive edge and propels promotional and market plans at the global level.

The region’s real estate companies seek to get more cash inflows, revitalise demand over all types of property and utilise external demand to generate capital profits. Industry indicators expect the region’s markets to continue to launch more promotional and marketing offers that will reflect positively on other economic platforms in the future.

The report highlighted the positive activities recorded by the forces of demand and supply in Saudi Arabia, where prices of land, flats and villas decreased by 15-30%, particularly in Mecca, Jeddah and Riyadh. As a result, property companies now go for all possible kinds of promotional plans, including waiving first installments of for-sale flats and offering real estate products at reduced installments in order to increase demand and get the cash needed for ongoing projects.

The report described the current status on the Saudi market as positive for all parties concerned, with property companies getting the needed liquidity and end-users ultimately having property at affordable prices. The report noted that low prices of land located outside urban areas might not have a positive impact on prices and end-users.

The forces of demand and supply in the UAE market go otherwise, according to the report, if compared with neighbouring markets. Varying prices could slightly affect demand over different types of real estate products, with declining rates of flats and luxury villas likely to encourage several segments, including middle-income categories, to invest and buy. In cases where price hikes have been reported, more confidence in the sector performance would be ensured, which would ultimately lead to more demand over all types of products.

The UAE is forging ahead with its promotional and marketing plans at the local and foreign levels, with the property companies operating in the country vying to lure the largest possible segments of international investments by participating in global platforms and forums through which they promote different categories of real estate products. Dubai Land Department, for example, has over the past period been organising overseas promotional campaigns to increase foreign investors’ awareness of investment prospects in the real estate sector in the emirate. Such efforts have resulted in a 34% increase in foreign investments to AED23 billion during Q1 2017, with indicators expecting continual growth for the UAE real estate market during the Holy Month of Ramadan.

The report highlighted the high-yield returns of real estate investments in the region’s markets, which help draw investors under all circumstances, despite besetting economic pressures. In this regard, the report mentioned that real estate investments in the UAE recorded an average annual interest rate of 9%, with Bahraini market registering an annual interest rate of 9-13%. Property annual expenses do not exceed a maximum of 1.5% of the total annual returns while re-sale profit of under-construction residential units after completion ranges between 17 to 22%.

Due to the prevailing state of deceleration, property development companies in the region are expected to offer more discounts during the Holy Month of Ramadan to overcome current slowdown and draw more customers with the objective of achieving sale targets for the elapsed period of the year.

It is noteworthy that observing Ramadan during the early months of the summer season, where the property sector usually suffers some deceleration in terms of sales and demand, provides a good chance for property companies to develop attractive promotional campaigns during the Holy Month in the run-up to the post-Eid El-Fitr period. The real estate exhibitions held by the end of last year and early this year provided property companies with a good chance to promote their products, with a lot of them having made good business at the local and international levels. Such campaigns are expected to continue during and after Ramadan by making use of the current low prices as a catalyst to revitalise demand.

In conclusion, the report said that the rental market remains tight in most of the region’s countries, with rising rental costs usually driving demand over sales operations.

Remarkable Tourist Performance Yields Substantial Results and Consolidates GCC GDP

The current momentum recorded by the regional tourism sector is exceptional

The growing focus of GCC states on tourism has yielded substantial results, expanding economic opportunities and helping Gulf economies survive current business pressures. The successful impact of tourism on the economy is attributable to the strong tourist infrastructure enjoyed by the region’s countries, which gives the tourist sector a regional and global competitive edge that reflects positively on total revenues.

In its weekly real estate report, Al Mazaya Holding said that the region’s countries are mulling over all possibilities and opportunities that can help ensure stable and increasing growth rates amidst current local and global challenges that are difficult to survive through the plans and strategies now in place. The report termed the current momentum recorded by the regional tourism sector as exceptional, being mainly created by the private sector, with the region’s governments continuing to provide all forms of support to their economic platforms, primarily tourism, to help ensure the required growth rates.

Tourism is regarded by the region’s countries as a major enabler for economic diversification, owing to its substantial contribution to creating the needed momentum on the trade, industrial, real estate and service sectors during both growth and deceleration times.

Citing the successful tourist projects launched in the region over the past period, the report said the innovative tourist products introduced by the GCC states are characterised by cultural diversity and provide different options for edutainment and leisure that cater to all needs in a way that attracts global interest. This helps woo more foreign investments into the region and create solid ground for luxury real estate projects.

Shedding light on the Qatari market, the report said that tourist expansion plans are going at full tilt, with the Qatari government working to attracting over 10 million tourists by the year 2030 and increasing tourism revenues to around $18 billion.

The report added that the Qatari government plans to draw new investments to the tourism sector amounting to $45 billion in the form of cultural, infrastructure and transportation projects, which are expected to increase by 8% annually up until the year 2026. The report referred to the efforts being made to stamp out all obstacles met by the tourist sector, including facilitating tourist visa requirements, developing more effective plans that market the country’s tourist potential, increasing discounts and promotions, and expanding leisure and business tourism options. The successes achieved over the past period are encouraging enough to invite more investments to the sector and expand tourist projects, including the construction of additional numbers of resorts and hotels.

In Saudi Arabia, the tourism sector, being an efficient generator of job opportunities, has been receiving growing attention from the Saudi government, with available data indicating that the sector can provide up to 1.2 million job opportunities by the year 2020 as a result of the momentum created by the government’s increasing focus on directing more capital inflows to the industry.

Within this context, the Saudi Tourism Authority has allocated SAR 3 billion in credit to establish hotels and other types of tourist facilities until the year 2020. As a result, the number of hotels in KSA has increased by 6% this year, in addition to a 4% increase in the number of furnished apartments. However, the coming period requires more effort by the government to survive the multi-faceted challenges besetting the sector.

The report highlighted the continual progress made by the UAE tourist sector over the past 17 years despite economic pressures. Having met the requirements of the private-public sector integration, the UAE tourist sector has ushered in a fresh phase of creativity and innovative concepts, relying on a highly advanced infrastructure and a well-diversified economy that ensures increasing demand and competiveness.

Despite the pressures besetting other business platforms, the UAE tourist sector is launching well-thought-out projects, with the industry’s contribution to the nation’s GDP amounting to 12% and tourist spending reaching AED 110 billion by the end of 2016. Online tourist reservations in the UAE hit an enviable value of AED33 billion, accounting for 55% of the region’s total electronic reservations.

In conclusion, the report noted that the average hotel occupancy in the UAE jumped to 81% by the beginning of the current year, with a 6% increase in demand, topping the region’s tourist sectors in terms of hotel occupancy, which reached 67% in Saudi Arabia and 70% in Qatar.

AL MAZAYA HOLDING’S WEEKLY REPORT

 

 

GCC Governments Focus on Profitable Projects to Offset Accumulated Deficits

 

Investment and development plans are still reliant on oil prices

GCC States have shown far greater efficiency in managing the impact of falling oil prices, according to current data and economic indicators gathered by Al Mazaya Holding’s latest weekly report. The Gulf region has reconsidered development priorities in a way that corresponds to generated returns, optimising government expenses and incentivising the private sector to take up additional roles in the development process.

The region’s countries have proved hitherto successful in their economic investment options despite market pressures, which are, however, strong enough to endanger gains of strategic developmental plans and long-term investments.

The economies of oil exporting countries have for a long time been largely dependent on oil market performance with weaker crude oil prices creating a new reality that augments pressures on oil economies. As a result, this has developed new policies to avoid enormous budget deficits that could jeopardise their investment gains, including increasing oil production levels or maintaining them at their current rates.

The report mentioned that global oil prices declined by 6% during Q1 2017 amidst fears of increasing shale oil reserves after OPEC’s deal with non-members to cut oil output. This has pushed oil rates over the $50 mark, a level that encourages American shale oil producers, who are not part of the deal, to resume production.

Oil prices declined by 2% in April, standing at an average of $51.7 per barrel, with light crude rates continuing their plunge during the first week of May through electronic transactions in Asia. Brent crude dropped to $47.1, with current data projecting no potential stability or improvement at the $70 mark.

Government expenditures remain unchanged, running at safety net spending levels, with private sectors being empowered to chip in and make up for weaning government spending. The first quarter of 2017 recorded a 16% enterprise growth as compared to the same period last year, with the UAE economy coming on top in terms of the number of projects being launched while the Saudi market is down 29% as compared to the same period last year.

Energy sector enterprises have increased by 18% comparatively with Q1 in 2016 amidst persistent fears of further declines across the sector. This has triggered a reconsideration of several mega project-related tenders, as prices are not encouraging a resumption of development plans and property, industrial and service projects.

The report shed light on the UAE’s real estate market which has witnessed new property projects worth AED 16 billion, in addition to investment enterprises in areas of hospitality, marketing and leisure launched by semi-government and private companies as well as luxury property projects initiated as part of plush and integrated model urban communities. Economic diversification and the varying effects of oil prices from one emirate to another are supporting factors that has kept momentum running in the real estate sector during the first quarter of the year.

Data released by the Real Estate Registration Department in Dubai showed consistently increasing foreign demand for Dubai property, with non-Arabs claiming 51.6% of property purchases, followed by Gulf investors at 35.5% and Arab investors at 12.9%.

In Saudi Arabia, pressures are more likely to continue at key economic platforms during the rest of 2017, according to the report, as transformation plans underway need longer time to bear fruit. The Saudi property market is, therefore, not likely to witness growth at the current stage and will wait for deliverables of the transformation drive.

Data released by the Saudi Ministry of Justice indicated a decline of 9.5% for property transactions in the housing sector, 11.7% for the commercial sector and 1.3% for the agricultural sector. The report referred to 10 ambitious enterprises underway worth $92 billion, including religious, entertainment and new housing projects. Urban and transportation projects account for 68% of KSA’s total projects, estimated at A$ 700 billion.

In Oman, Vision 2040 is set to give the property market more momentum over the coming few years, with the exceptional nature of the Omani realty market auguring well in a way that exceeds expectations and outpaces the performance recorded in neighbouring countries.

In conclusion, the report stated that government spending is now mainly focused on never-failing profitable enterprises in order to offset accumulated budget deficits. In addition, the relative rise in oil prices compared to the previous years has reflected positively on the real estate sector’s performance. However, with oil prices remaining below the $50 mark, despite the consensus on extending crude oversupply limits, pressures are expected to persist at vital sectors of primary importance to GDP.

Amidst bullish economic indicators

GCC states enjoy advanced industrial zones capable of attracting foreign and local investments

The demand for industrial spaces is a significant indicator of economic growth as it reflects the country’s ability to get high rankings at local and international economic indices. Forces of demand are typically associated with developmental and economic transformational plans, which are already underway in the region, and translate the importance attached by the governments of the region to the industrial sector and steps are taken to drive its contributions to Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

According to Al Mazaya Holding Weekly Real Estate Report, most of the GCC states have advanced industrial zones capable of both attracting foreign and local investments and in the same time surviving economic pressures created by the challenges besetting the region.

The report mentioned that the declining demand for residential units, amidst continued supply of ready-to-move properties, has negatively affected selling and rental rates, with residential units demanded by foreign companies being the only exception. This, according to the report, has had its knock-on effect on the demand for commercial and industrial spaces as well as on the value of new investments.

The report revealed 10-20 per cent drop in demand for industrial and commercial spaces in Qatar, with more declines projected during the first half of the year as a result of the demand for residential units, which likewise started to decrease owing to the downsizing policies adopted by some companies and growing supply of other residential options that meet the needs of different segments of society.

The declining global oil prices that resulted in decreasing government spending have had their own bearing on employment rates and commercial and industrial activities, said the report, pointing out that Qatar has started to launch logistics and industrial projects to revitalize business, support local products and diversify investment techniques as well as providing momentum to increase the role of the private sector in the developmental drive, thereby creating new opportunities for young investors, including small-medium scale investment companies.

In the Emirate of Dubai, the demand for industrial areas has been stable during Q1 of 2017 despite the economic volatility witnessed at regional and global levels, said the report, noting that real estate demand in the industrial sector, including transformational industries, increased 18 per cent in Dubai’s industrial free zones during 2016, with warehouses having been in strong demand during the same period.

The report attributed stable demand rates in the UAE to the billions of dirhams being spent by the government on developing the industrial sector, including the launch of sophisticated industrial zones supported with premium infrastructure services and hundreds of parks and plants. In this regard, the report cited establishment of KIZAD, Dubai Industrial Zone and Dubai South as prime examples of efforts being made to promote local industries and bring them at par with global standards.

In Saudi Arabia, efforts are going on in full swing at the government level, with data indicating a growing upward movement in developing industrial areas as a result of the recorded increase in the number of industrial, service and logistics contracts being awarded. The report also cited the economic transformational plan adopted by the country to further empower the industrial sector.

The report highlighted the trend towards launching industrial infrastructural enterprises in Saudi Arabia, including different types of industrial cities owned by the private sector as well as those executed by the Saudi Industrial Development Fund, with investments channeled to the sector over the past few years amounting to SAR 1.1 trillion. The report added that Saudi Arabia, in doing so, relies on an integrated infrastructure to generate employment opportunities, improve investment potential and create a business-friendly environment capable of enticing local and foreign investors.

In Oman, the outlook is more optimistic on account of the direct and indirect support provided by the government, with total leasable industrial areas across all industrial zones in the Sultanate reaching more than 33 million square meters during the first half of last year. Plans are underway to ensure availability of integrated industrial areas over the coming period by diversifying sources of income and creating new solutions to consolidate the economy.

According to the report, Oman’s Public Establishment for Industrial Estates has created more than 33,000 job opportunities through the projects launched at the country’s industrial parks, with the total space of leasable areas exceeding the 90 million SQM mark, all of which are dedicated to industrial, commercial and service purposes. Attracting investments worth more than OMR 6 billion in 2016, industrial zones in the Sultanate are integrating state-of-the-art technologies into different industries in order to save time and effort, accelerate production and enhance quality and efficiency.

Concluding, the report said the region’s industrial sector is moving in the right direction, enjoying true potential for success thanks to the continued support provided by the governments and their empowerment of the private sector, calling for developing efficient mechanisms that enable the GCC states to promote and market their industrial zones on the global level in order to ensure the highest possible levels of occupancy and demand and generate best investment returns.

Considered amongst leading, highly-demanded financing tools for government economic development plans

Islamic Sukuk comes on top of key enablers for investment growth

The Sharia-compliant financing options have become the most useful financial solutions capable of leading the world economy at a time other traditional financing options are waning and not anymore able to meet the growing demands of developmental drives and requirements of the new global investment landscape. This competitive edge enjoyed by Sukuk, the Islamic bond, is attributable to the buoyancy and flexibility enjoyed by this investment vehicle to provide the liquidity levels needed by mega-sized enterprises launched by the private sector, and to meet the needs of government spending requirements. Over the past period, it has been noticed that the growing issuance of Sukuk has had its positive impact to keep the required momentum on capital markets in a way that has reflected positively on all essential economic sectors, atop of which come the investment and real estate platforms.

Al Mazaya Weekly Real Estate Report said that Islamic Sukuk has been gaining noticeable momentum over the past period, outperforming conventional bonds in attracting the largest possible segments of investors in light of the growing appeal it is now enjoying among investors across the world due to its relatively reduced risk, and distinctive fundamentals as a means to monetize assets once cash is needed by its issuer.

Comparing Sukuk and conventional bonds, the report said, Sukuk are financial certificates structured to comply with Islam’s prohibition on charging or paying of interest that grant an undivided interest or share in an underlying asset along with the profits, cash flows and risk commensurate with such ownership. Sukuk are often referred to as the Islamic equivalent of bonds. But Sukuk represent ownership of real assets, whereas conventional bondholders own debt. Sukuk is an attractive Sharia-compliant option for investors seeking to diversify their investment portfolios. They tend to be more insulated from market fluctuations and have lower correlations to other asset classes, including global conventional bonds and global equity.

Financial institutions around the world are now vying for securing the largest possible share of Islamic finance and capital by developing banking mechanisms compliant with Islamic Sharia principles and launching new financial products on financial markets and stock exchanges that cater to the needs of Muslim investors and businessmen.

Despite surrounding headwinds, the Islamic finance industry has been posting strong growth rates over the past years, with Sukuk becoming amongst the key financing options sought after by world governments to attract Islamic capital and Sharia-compliant financial services. With countries effectively seeking to develop their financial legislation and investment vehicles in alignment with Islamic finance, Sukuk have taken on different forms and types, including Sukuk Al Ijara, Sukuk Al Musharaka,  Sukuk Al Murabaha,  and Sukuk Al Istisna, etc.

The report indicates that Sukuk cover a wide spectrum of economic activities including production platforms like agriculture and industry as well as financial and investment domains such as Al Murabaha, highlighting in this regard the Islamic concept of sustainability and durability ensured by Sukuk where the owners invest their money in real projects. Sukuk are well suited for smart management of risk. Uncertainty is a big part of the investment. Islamic securities can be issued with varying degrees of risk and yield, allowing investors to choose a portfolio best suited for their risk management profiles.

The value of Sukuk is reportedly expected to surge to $60 billion by the end of 2017, which is below original forecasts, said the report, noting that the fall in global oil prices which started in the second half of 2014 has accelerated the issuance of Sukuk specially by oil-producing companies which tried to utilize the Sukuk market to maintain spending level at normal rates and keep developmental efforts unaffected.

The report said that the volume of Sukuk, according to current indicators and statistical data, is expected to surge to $3.4 trillion by the end of 2018, with the Islamic finance market projected to grow by 13-15 per cent during 2017.

This comes at a time when the Islamic finance sector is considered among the highest growing sectors thanks to the advantages offered by Sukuk and their important role in providing feasible opportunities and savings to different investment platforms as well as their contributions to diversify investment tools, given that large-scale economic developmental plans require accelerated issuance of Sukuk in order to maximize savings and expand investment pools.

Within this context, the 9th Forum for Listed Companies and Analysts, held recently in Kuwait, included for the first time a discussion panel themed “Sukuk and Future Outlook” to demonstrate Sukuk growth opportunities as a financing instrument, not to mention the legal, regulatory and supervisory requirements for sovereign and corporate Sukuk issues.

The forum discussed the key growth drivers for the Sukuk industry and potential growth markets. The participants underlined the critical role of supervisory authorities in areas of Sukuk, noting that any Islamic legislation-related headwinds in the Sukuk market might trigger a negative impact on the entire Islamic financial sector. The forum reiterated the growing trend towards issuing Sukuk across the markets of the Gulf region in specific in light of the ability of this kind of investment to survive risks related to the budget deficit, foreign loans, privatisation and monetization.

The report noted that Islamic Sukuk provide good opportunities for getting suitable and powerful financing options at a time other financing options wane and fail to provide the needed financing for infrastructure and developmental enterprises, which are subject to market volatility, ultimately reflecting negatively on spending priorities. It added that the flexibility and resilience provided by Sharia-compliant financial products have enabled many countries to launch infrastructure projects and state-run income-generating enterprises.

The report concluded that the Sukuk market is a strong enabler for investment growth in the capital markets both at present and in the future thanks to its potential to facilitate synergy, safeguard markets against volatility and generate cash inflows besides its ability to develop innovative financial products.

Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Report

GCC States Urged to Continue Infrastructure Development and Ensure a More Effective Role for the Private Sector to Improve Returns and National Economies

Infrastructure enterprises identified as main catalyst to all business platforms

Infrastructure enterprises are a major catalyst to accelerate economic, commercial and real estate growth in the region, with sustainability taking precedence over all other considerations in the developmental plans devised by GCC states.

In its weekly real estate report, Al Mazaya Holding said that the lion’s share of the region’s projects are infrastructure-oriented, primarily the construction of roads, airports, railways and power plants. It has transpired, according to the report, that the countries of the region are giving priority to high-yield projects over the medium and long terms.

Most of mega projects currently executed by countries of the region reflect their economic visions, most of which target the year 2030 as their completion date. In order to achieve their ambitious economic objectives, countries of the region have to have robust economies capable of generating equitable returns from different key economic platforms, including the Oil and Gas sector. They have to be capable of attracting sustainable foreign investments, steering clear of bubbles, speculations and fragile investments.

By laying more focus on infrastructure projects, GCC states seek to rehabilitate their economies and optimize their expenditure, endeavoring to reap the dividends of their investments by ensuring stable returns without government interventions and additional financial allocations in the future.

The report noted that Bahrain is presently witnessing an investment boom at the level of infrastructure projects, with the market having already survived all the pressures besetting it, achieving tangible growth at the real estate sector, locally, regionally and internationally. The report cited the ongoing construction of the USD $1 billion Bahrain International Airport as a perfect example for massive infrastructure projects ongoing in the kingdom. The airport is expected to have a capacity of 14 million travelers. The Alba’s Line 6 Expansion is another mega project estimated at USD $3 million. The Kingdom’s new power and gas plant are expected to effectively contribute to the growth of the non-oil sector in the country, said the report.

Current business indictors reflect the vibrancy of the UAE real estate market despite economic and financial pressures created by the fluctuations in global oil prices. The UAE is the top of MENA countries in terms of the volume of infrastructure enterprises, which are launched in alignment with the UAE government’s strategies to ensure investment momentum and vibrancy under all circumstances.

Infrastructure enterprises in the UAE are sustainability-based, with state departments consistently seeking to enforce sustainability and green building codes as well as renewable energy concepts through which the country’s future plans can be realized by applying best practices and optimal utilization of resources and human capital.

The report underlined the importance of infrastructure enterprises to ensure economic momentum by directing more attention to engage the private sector in the development process in a way that it turns to be a partner rather than a mere beneficiary.

The report termed the infrastructure enterprises in Qatar as the most diversified in the entire region, as it is associated with mega projects of tremendous international significance, including those of the FIFA World Cup 2022.

According to the report, the Qatari government is planning to give the private sector priority in executing existing projects, with statistics showing that the country’s 2017 budget earmarks more than QAR 72 billion to national projects has increased allocations to mega projects. The report noted that a total of QAR 261 billion is expected to be spent on FIF World Cup-related projects over the coming years, most of which target the transport, sports, electricity, education and health sectors.

Infrastructure enterprises have posted stable growth during Q1 2017 and have become the mainstay of economic, social and political activities in urban societies.

In conclusion, the report underlined the importance of the GCC states continuing to launch new infrastructure projcts over the coming few years, warning that any postponement or cancellation of existing projects will certainly create more challenges to the private sector. The GCC states are always urged to keep the investment momentum running and to encourage the private sector to play a more effective role in implementing the development plans by contributing to infrastructure projects and other enterprises that are mainly aimed to attract foreign investments, which mostly need a robust and vibrant private sector to persist.

Qatar seeks to retain privileged investment status in Britain, securing successive achievements across the world

A steady pace of development is reportedly witnessed across the Gulf region for expanding and diversifying investments to accommodate business opportunities that could be up for grab in the build-up to a potential recovery. Under such a bullish atmosphere, it transpires that the Qatari economy boasts the largest level of liquidity among the region’s economies and even in comparison with most of the world countries, a fact which encourages the launch of medium- and large-scale investments at local and global levels to utilise this high-level of cash.

In its weekly real estate report, Al Mazaya Holding said that the Qatari investment sector has achieved noticeable successes over the past period due to its focus on growing opportunities in the real estate sector across the world, acquiring considerable shares at international banks, commercial activities and global brands.

The report noted that the Qatari investments in Britain are constantly growing despite the fast-paced build-up to Brexit, creating different platforms of activities provided by the United Kingdom.

The report added that diversification and expansion of investments create myriad opportunities for growth coupled with potential risks and challenges, with the investments led by the Qatar Investment Authority considerably growing across the British banking and real estate sectors.

The report mentioned that the Qatar’s real estate sector faced recessions by the end of 2015 and 2016 following an unprecedented period of urban expansion created by the execution of a large number of projects across different domains. That state of recession manifested itself in reduced numbers and volumes of real estate transactions specially in terms of land sales which declined by 80 per cent. In addition, the oversupply of residential units pushed rental and sale rates down by 10-20 per cent.

In the meantime, retail spaces in Qatar’s major areas substantially grew over the past few years, and they are projected to rise by 220 per cent by the year 2019. Retail spaces allocated to shopping centres are expected to reach up to 1.3 million square metres over the coming three years, which means that the demand for residential units targeting middle-income segments shall keep growing at the current level, with property developments expected to continue to be launched to provide diverse options matching different budgets.

Additionally, banks’ funding facilities in Qatar help stimulate the property sector by providing different mortgage products to individuals and corporates alike, said the report, noting that mortgage loans during 2016 increased to 6.6 per cent of total credit facilities.

The report highlighted the role played by Qatar’s banks in driving Qatari overseas investments as Qatari citizens are growingly willing to own property across different countries, specially in the British property market where Qatari banks provide different credit facilities up to 70 per cent in line with the Qatari Central Bank’s rules and regulations.

The report highlighted the momentum gained by Qatari investments in Britain where they top the list of Arab investors, comprising more than 8 per cent of the total new property purchases in London, with current data estimating total Qatari investments in Britain at around 30 billion pounds distributed among leading property establishments.

Investment risks in Britain are manageable and predictable, according to the report which adds that Brexit creates new investment opportunities, with Qataris to hold a favourite status to utilise these opportunities thanks to the considerable Qatari cash levels available in Britain, not to mention the accumulated experience gained over the years by Qatari investors. The report mentioned that most of the Qatari investments will target infrastructure enterprises as well as healthcare and InfoTech.

Qatar is expected to pump 5 billion pounds new investments in the next five years into the British economy in different fields, primarily energy, property, real estate and services as well as other fundamental sectors. Such inflows are certainly to create good opportunities for the British economy and help attract more foreign investments to offset the negative consequences of Brexit. Britain plans to turn into a global investment hub contrary to previous projections that the British economy will decelerate as a result of withdrawal from the European Union.

Concluding, the report said the British economy has managed to consolidate its investment status in the EU in a short span of time, gaining fair foothold among major decision-making centres, particularly financial and banking sectors, a prestigious status that Britain will seek to bolster over the coming years, with the GCC states to be among the most beneficiaries thereof.

Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Report

The Region’s Real Estate Markets Continue to Attract Cash Flows Despite Economic Pressures

High cash inflows and low prices drive demand of residential units in GCC states

 

Diversification of real state products locally and globally is one supporting factor that rejuvenates property markets and ensures continued buoyancy. In its weekly real estate report, Al Mazaya Holding said that despite economic pressures, there are still free cash flows sailing into the region’s markets. However, these cash flows differ in their ability to attract investments, depending on the availability of cash among individuals or organizations. In addition, price levels in the current period are a major driver of momentum.

According to the report, the region’s real estate markets are currently divided into three types. The first is dominated by local demand only where end-users are the only active players. The second comprises end-users and investors on equal footing; investment in this type of market is of lower risk and high returns with a growing asset value. In the third type of market, investment demand prevails and is the main catalyst for real estate activity.

Investment returns play a significant role in activating rentals and sales of readily available units, thanks to the high returns for investors. Furthermore, property markets enjoy a higher competitive edge worldwide, despite all business challenges besetting them in comparison with other inflexible types of investments where prices continually take an upward turn.

Streamlined measures, multiple credit facility options and geographical diversification are all factors that maintain competitiveness and provide property markets with the momentum needed to increase profits and get official authorities to provide incentives that help the real estate sector grow.

The report highlighted the significance of diversifying real estate products in terms of value, rates, categories and locations, singling out the Turkish property markets, which are among the most favourites for Gulf investors, thanks to significant incentives provided by the government that help generate multiple investment opportunities.

In this respect, the report noted that the Qatari investments in Turkey have exceeded $20 billion worth of commercial and construction contracts, with Saudi real estate investments amounting to around $6 billion, with the Turkish government planning to increase them to $25 billion by the year 2023. UAE investments in Turkey are likewise on the rise, increasing by 160% over the past two years.

Regarding Gulf investments on the UAE property market, the report said they are on the rise, with the Emirate of Dubai maintaining its leading position thanks to its ability to stand up to volatility and internal and external pressures.

The UAE is classified among the world’s leading real estate markets that enjoy continual external and local demand on various types of products, with residential units still with the highest demand. Saudis lead the list of gulf investors in Dubai with AED8 billion worth of real estate investments; they are second on the list of non-Emirati property investors. Kuwaiti investors increased in number in Dubai over the past years, launching AD2 billion worth of real estate enterprises.

According to the report, the British real estate market abounds in limitless investment prospects and has displayed steadfastness and resilience despite the Brexit-related challenges and pressures. The high demand over real estate products, especially residential units, high cash levels, low investment risks and robustness of the banking sector are all factors that enhance the British market’s competitiveness and its ability to provide luxurious residential projects.

In conclusion, the report said that real estate transactions in and outside the region are mainly investment-oriented, with end-users likely to account for a decreasing share as prices increase and flexibility diminishes. Accordingly, active real estate markets in the region are likely to provide investment-oriented projects to maintain their resilience and attractiveness under all circumstances.

Al Mazaya Holding Weekly Report

GCC States Geared to Follow Suit with US Interest Rate Hikes

The Gulf realty sector will remain unaffected

Indicators of economic growth have proved the region’s economies resilient vis-à-vis besetting external headwinds. Citing reasonable growth rates, recent data shows that the forces of supply and demand have not been negatively affected, thanks to the GCC states’ robust trade relations with each other and around the world.

In its weekly real estate report, Al Mazaya Holding said the GCC states have managed to mitigate risks associated with challenges surrounding the region, thus developing efficient strategies and building fiscal buffers to safeguard themselves against decreasing revenues and budget deficits.

It is hardly possible to develop a direct assessment of the impact of some challenges on the economic situation in the region, said the report, citing the 25 basis point-hike in US interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, as the impact varies from one market to another. Home loan interest rates in the UAE, for example, differ even from one bank to another. In addition, UAE interest rates are already high, and therefore, any further hike by the UAE Central Bank will not have any bearing on the realty market, either among end-users or investors.

The report noted that the Gulf banking sector boasts fair liquidity levels and, therefore, any rise in interest rates will not have much impact on bank lending and credit volumes. In the meantime, the availability of cash is likely to boost competition among banks in terms of financing options. Therefore, borrowers would get their loans at the discretion of their banks in terms of costs, returns, liquidity volumes, target plans that differ from one fiscal period to another and level of collaterals provided by potential borrowers. Banks offering home loans are favorites because they are in consistent demand, compared to other commercial products that are usually vulnerable to market fluctuations.

In addition, real estate demand in the region’s markets is still below expectations, which means interest rates are more likely to increase, according to the report.

Financial decision-makers in the US usually keep a close eye on market reactions to any hike in interest rates, and accordingly, they take action to rectify it, said the report, citing two hikes in US interest rates in three months only, a development which proves how rapidly the US economy is progressing and recovering. Furthermore, market indicators reveal that US inflation rates are stable at the level set by the US Federal Reserve.

The region’s central banks are expected to follow suit with the US interest rate hikes, said the report, warning that if that has already commenced, the region’s countries should take actions to avoid a new economic crisis because their local currencies are pegged to the US Dollar. In addition, according to the report, such an increase in interest rates could cause investment-bound liquidity to flee from local markets in favour of dollar-denominated assets and projects.

The report added that any rise in interest rates would deplete cash from local markets, directing liquidity instead toward investment opportunities in the US market, which would augment economic pressures already faced by the region’s financial markets. This hike in interest rates would affect prices of stocks, commodities and property with the latter already having been going down over the past two years. In the meantime, the property sector would not be directly affected by the likely rise in interest rates as the decline in property prices is likely to offset a potential rise in bank lending rates. This is due to the fact that most of the real estate loans are offered at fixed rates, which means the real estate market would remain unchanged.

The region’s tourism sector is resilient enough to resist any negative impact by increasing interest rates, owing to consistent promotional campaigns and rates as well as the increasing number of tourist arrivals. In addition, the tourism platform is already booking high profits and the strategies adopted by decision makers are sufficient to mitigate any negative impacts.

In conclusion, the report noted that rising interest rates primarily benefit the US economy while their impact would vary from one market to another across the world, as further increases in interest rates are still a possibility. It expected that interest rate related decisions would generate more pressures on world economies such as US Dollar-denominated debts now account for 85% of the world’s total financial exchanges, a fact which could make it necessary for GCC states to look for a different currency peg over the coming period to circumvent further pressures on their economies.

Property Oversupply Impacts Real Estate Prices

An elaborate, well-thought out oversight mechanism is needed to regulate the region’s realty markets

The Gulf property market continues to achieve good results despite the multifaceted challenges besetting it, locally and internationally. However, the region’s countries still vary in terms of recovery levels, which are directly determined by the forces of demand and supply, real estate investment liquidity and a tendency toward property ownership among locals, residents or foreign investors in the region. This discrepancy in market performance has had a direct bearing on the visibility of ongoing projects, and ultimately, on selling and rental rates.

Al Mazaya Holding’s weekly real estate report indicated that the variations in demand and supply levels from one market to another lead to volatility in rates and performance and consequently, in potential investment returns.

The report added that several residential projects and thousands of new properties will be up for grabs in 2017 and over the coming years as a direct result of the decline in major industrial and trade platforms and government enterprises. It referred to the growing possibility of a further decline in demand, especially if the completion and handover of property units continue to meet delivery schedules.

The report added that real estate activities in the region will not come to a halt despite the surrounding negative and positive developments. However, according to the report, property development companies and executives are required to develop a sound management approach to control the negative circumstances and accommodate their concomitant pressures.

The value of 2016-2017 property projects already under construction in the UAE is estimated at $629 billion, said the report, indicating that the UAE realty market is overseen by strict regulations to ensure the handover of residential units within the set timeframe. In this respect, it highlighted the delivery of 34,000 residential units in the UAE in 2016.

The report termed the Saudi property market as quite complicated due to declining property ownership levels among Saudi nationals, and a considerable rise in plot prices. While the execution of more residential units will have a positive impact on the Saudi property market, the launch of more investment projects will have negative bearing on the market, added the report. It highlighted on this score an announcement by the Saudi Ministry of Housing indicating that it will launch the first batch of a housing project in collaboration with the private sector and banking sector. The housing project will include the launch of 380,000 residential and investment units across the KSA to be handed over in 3 years.

A state of upward activity has been witnessed by the construction sector in Qatar, which is described by the report as among the region’s most buoyant markets, with delivery of projects and residential and commercial units having started more than one year ago. More projects continue to be launched on the market, which means more activity over the medium and long terms. More than 60,000 residential units and around 700 towers and residential blocks will have been handed over in Qatar until the year 2020, which means that any decline in demand or increase in supply of residential units and offices are likely to negatively impact the market, expose investors to considerable risks as a result of difficulties they might face while selling or renting according to prevailing prices. Bank-funded projects may also face considerable challenges.

Rental prices continue to decrease in Abu Dhabi, said the report, expecting the decline to be up to 15 percent and even more due to the oversupply of new and old flats and declining demand. The Emirate of Dubai is likely to be going in the same direction, with rental prices having decreased by up to 5 percent during the 4th quarter of 2016. More dips are expected by the time around 31,000 residential units and 12,000 villas will have been delivered during this year in a number of locations across the emirate. In the meantime, the decline in rental rates reached 25 percent in Saudi Arabia last year.

In conclusion, the report stressed the need for an effective oversight mechanism to follow up the handover and supply of residential and commercial property on a constant and permanent basis in order to ensure stability on the region’s real estate sector over the coming and present periods. Demand is still below the required levels and present economic circumstances do not bode well for an accelerated demand over the coming period, which means that random deliveries of properties would create more risks.

Economic Pressures Create Reasonable Prospects of Success for Islamic Sharia-Compliant Finance

Islamic banking sector to standardize approach to accommodate fluctuations in target markets

The Islamic Sharia-compliant banking sector continues to gain ground worldwide, accounting for 50 per cent of the banking industry across the world. This is attributed to the fact that the Islamic banking system is resilient and buoyant enough to attract investments in all business platforms.

In its weekly real estate report, Al Mazaya Holding said the current economic situation in the region necessitates the efficient development of Islamic banking products to close the gaps created by the financial crises that hit the markets over the past years. This can be ensured by launching newly developed products that can revitalize the main sectors of the economy in the Arabian Gulf countries, particularly because Islamic banking products are known to be capable of accommodating all types of business pressures under all circumstances.

The report noted that the fall in global oil prices in mid-2014 has had its bearing on the Islamic banking products across the world. However, the Islamic banking industry has shown growing levels of buoyancy that has enabled it to deliver premium results in terms of assets and profits by end of 2015 and 2016.

The ability to ensure sufficient cash levels for Islamic banks comes on top of the challenges facing the Islamic banking sector, which necessitates the development of an efficient mechanism to ensure the required levels of liquidity for Islamic finance and consequently achieve positive results across different business sectors with the aim of enabling individuals to get lucrative returns, indicated the report.

Infrastructure and mega energy projects as well as real estate enterprises come on top of the best investment options available for the Islamic banking industry over the next period, added the report, noting that the massive magnitude of such projects proves the Islamic finance sector’s great potential and competitiveness. In the meantime, Islamic banks are required to develop comprehensive plans conducive to investing in short-term business products that could earn them larger quotas of target markets and consequently garner more profits.

GCC states’ share of the Islamic banking sector amounts to $490 billion, which accounts for 38% of the total value of Islamic banking assets across the world, with Saudi Arabia dominating the asset growth in the Islamic banking industry in the Gulf region. The Islamic banking products in the UAE are gaining ground, representing 20% of the total Islamic banking assets in the region, said the report, highlighting the ongoing efforts in the UAE to launch a higher oversight authority for Islamic Sharia-compliant products that will be in charge of regulating the Islamic banking sector and enhancing its regional and global competitiveness.

Citing recent market research, the report estimated the volume of the Saudi mortgage market at SAR 207 billion, with further growth expected over the coming period, which paves the ground for creating more investment opportunities in the future, especially with the Saudi official authorities planning to raise Saudi citizens’ house ownership percentage from 47% to 52%. Quoting industry business indicators, the report said the Saudi Islamic banks are in a good position to provide mega real estate loans thanks to the legislation recently issued by the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority that allows up to 85% mortgage of a property, which creates a fertile ground for fair credit facilities.

The Islamic banking sector has managed to provide feasible solutions, and quality and innovative services to large segments of society, as it expects the sector to achieve 15% growth should it manage to keep its current momentum.

In this regard, the report stated the Islamic banking sector has become resilient enough to provide innovative Islamic banking products that are conducive to achieving the targeted growth levels and enhancing banks’ ability to attract new clients under all circumstances.

The report shed light on the remarkable growth in Islamic banking products in Britain, with property financing and purchasing transactions having reached an all-time high in 2016 and mortgage applications rising by as much as 9% in 2016, which makes Sharia-compliant mortgage an ideal option for growing numbers of finance seekers.

In conclusion, the report stated that Islamic banks are required to ensure product alignment and a standardized approach in order to be able to accommodate the fluctuations witnessed by their target markets, including the challenges associated with weak oil prices and returns.

The current weak oil prices are most likely to curb growth levels and create further challenges that, in turn, would make Sharia-compliant finance a more viable option than conventional banking for oil exporting countries to forge ahead with their current and future planning strategies.

Dubai Maintains Competitive Edge and Investment Quotas Despite Challenges

The Emirate’s economy is robust enough to accommodate all business demands and pressures

All fields are expected to experience a rapid economic boom

The Emirate of Dubai continues to show growing levels of buoyance in the real estate and tourism sectors, boasting growing demand and increasing financial returns in all business platforms, thanks to its highly sophisticated industrial base and acquisition of good market quotas. This impressive economic success is attributed to a number of factors – primarily well-thought planning that carefully takes into consideration recovery and deceleration circumstances, a sound learning methodology, application of best practices, optimum utilization of resources and seizing feasible investment opportunities.

In its weekly real estate report, Al Mazaya Holding stated that the property sector in Dubai is enjoying high demand thanks to the sound, well-founded plans devised by the government to cope with and accommodate demands of the fast-faced developments taking place regionally and worldwide.

The report also highlighted the positive impact of the current competition running between GCC markets, where efforts are tirelessly being made to improve the investment environment by launching mega infrastructure projects worth billions of Dirhams and developing business-friendly legislations to attract feasible local and international investments. This is in addition to the current endeavors to privatize state-run companies and assets.

The report underlined the positive impact of privatization on the region’s economy in terms of mitigating financial burdens and risks, and offsetting budget deficits in some sectors. All economies of the region are set to benefit from the business incentives provided by privatization, as the economies will enjoy a higher level of preparedness and readiness potential to secure a better position in terms of investment incentives and opportunities.

The economic boom witnessed by Dubai is attributed to its ability to attract and adopt innovative business concepts that certainly generate positive returns under all circumstances, thanks to its modern infrastructure and sound approach toward different economic circumstances and pressures.

The Dubai economy managed to attract AED 403 billion worth of direct and indirect foreign investments during 2016, which accounts for 67% of the country’s and region’s total foreign investments. Wholesale and retail trade transactions account for the largest part of these investments, followed by the financial sector in the second position and the real estate sector in the third position with AED 58 billion worth of direct foreign investments.

A strong recovery was recorded in the trade, tourism and construction platforms by the emirate’s private sector, as revealed by Dubai markets data by end of December 2016. This is attributed to growing production, business and employment activities and exceptional performance in the construction sector, which has played a major role in propelling the economy to a very reasonable level. On this score, the report cited growing cash levels and the large number of transactions implemented in Dubai that amounted to AED 295 billion worth of property deals in 2016, with sales accounting for AED 103 billion thereof. The private sector also launched 134 new projects estimated at around AED 100 billion.

The report attributed the pressures and challenges experienced by the UAE realty market last year to the weak oil prices and the geopolitical developments in the region. Large-scale infrastructure, road and transport projects estimated at AED 20 billion will be executed over the coming years, including those associated with EXPO 2020. This economic boom is likely to boost economic competitiveness and enhance the emirate’s ability to draw global companies specializing in high-end smart technologies.

Dubai has managed to strengthen its position as a global business center thanks to the government’s economic diversification plans and efforts to streamline export regulations, the report stated. The emirate thrives with developmental projects in addition to innovation-based enterprises that are likely to generate a plenty of investment, development opportunities and prospects over the coming years, with available data estimating the total value of 2017’s real estate projects at more than AED 100 billion. These projects include EXPO 2020 enterprises, Dubai South, and Al Maktoum International – Dubai World Central (DWC), in addition to several tourism enterprises, the latest of which is the launch of Dubai Harbour Project, the Middle East region’s largest marina that is planned to feature a cruise ship port with a terminal fit for 6,000 passengers.

Highlighting the knowledge-based economy projects launched by the emirate, the report cited the Museum of the Future, a unique initiative by the government of Dubai that explores the future of science, technology and innovation, and is therefore expected to turn Dubai into a regional and global hub for the development of sciences. The Mall of the World is a project to build the largest shopping center of its kind in the world, which envisions a fully air-conditioned city, comprising more than 4,500,000 square meters and capable of receiving around 180 million visitors annually. Dubai Water Canal is another major enterprise to create unlimited tourist investment opportunities, including hotels, restaurants and entertainment facilities. Remarkable progress is being achieved by the emirate as well in terms of implementing power and water generating projects that are likely to produce high-yield financial savings amounting to AED 60 billion by the year 2030.

Conclusion

Dubai is required to forge ahead with its efforts and ambitious plans in order to maintain its competitive edge and powerful economic position – a difficult task to emulate at present or in the future. As a result, Dubai will be able to continue to benefit from the investment opportunities available.

Property Companies Required to Control Expenses and Develop Advanced Investment Techniques to Survive Potential Fluctuations

Real estate sector impacted by market volatility – current circumstances provide resilient companies with valuable investment opportunities

The real estate business has been impacted by a number of factors that have a bearing on the sector’s performance, driving it up and down due to market volatility. Moreover, the recession suffered by some of the region’s real estate markets has decreased the number of property projects being launched and increased estimated costs.

Al Mazaya Holding’s Weekly Report stated that 2017 will witness a continued deceleration in terms of performance that is likely to get a number of companies to increase their capital to pare their costs or opt for mergers to create robust economic entities with firms that have similar platforms in order to reduce operating costs and mitigate losses sustained by local and regional equity markets and shareholders.

The report expected a state of precarious stability to prevail over the region’s real estate landscape during 2017 as a result of persisting economic pressures. These pressures are predicted to curb the growth of real estate companies listed on GCC stock markets. The economic challenges besetting the region and other parts of the world are not the only determinants of firm performance, said the report, noting that rising costs, expenses and the inability of some companies to ensure sound project management and revenues have a direct bearing on the property market’s overall performance.

The report underlined the necessity of reviewing the property sector’s performance over the past five years and pinpointing causes behind positive and negative performances that affect the industry status in the region’s stock markets.

The report shed light on the annual performance of real estate companies in Saudi Arabia, six of which registered negative results on the Saudi stock market, while three only posted positive results at the end of 2016. The building and construction companies did not fare better – eight companies recorded negative results while only nine recorded positive growth by the end of the year.

The declining annual profits of Saudi property markets are attributable to rising Zakat allocations and growing business cost hikes. Decreasing rental revenues and occupancy rates as well as increasing financing, marketing, administrative and taxation costs likewise have their direct bearing on the overall performance, said the report.

In the UAE, there is a discrepancy between stock market performance and the overall performance of property companies where results are better than those recorded at other markets, which proves that UAE property companies have managed to control operating and non-operating expenses to reduce overall projects costs. Within this context, seven UAE property companies listed on the local stock markets posted positive annual growth by the end of 2016, with only five ending on a low note in terms of operating revenues. The majority of property firms in the UAE have booked overall profits amounting to 2.5% by the end of 2016 comparatively with the same period in 2015.

On the other hand, the Qatari property market recorded lower profits in 2016 than in 2015 as a result of declining operating revenues and losses associated with sales of existing financial assets as well as the rise in selling and marketing expenses. The achieved profits include non-recurrent sources, property sales, and real estate investment appraisals.

The rise in property products and plot lands in Qatar has led to real estate deceleration and negatively affected real estate company performances, including those listed and de-listed on equity markets. Concurrently, company performances have not been affected by falling oil prices and rising costs of energy by-products.

The report mentioned that the results achieved by Gulf property markets are attributed to the nature of competition on the market over the past and current years, with a growing state of awareness as companies prefer not to go for investments whose economic returns are difficult to anticipate due to growing pressures besetting the market. This, in turn, may impinge on their ability to launch new enterprises that require modern expertise and techniques.

Government spending over the past few years has not been widely supportive of property development companies, which, as a result, have opted for concentrating their activities on projects launched by state governments from time to time. And until now, no significant changes have been confirmed by governments with regards to their spending polices in a way that could reflect positively on property companies by the end of 2017.

Further, the report also highlighted a decline in the number of property projects, in terms of value and volume, and a government tendency toward privatisation, indicating that such trends have their bearing on the decision of cash holders and on long-term investments. Therefore, this may generate further complications that are likely to negatively affect economic platforms, primarily the real estate sector.

In addition, economic deceleration is likely to reduce property rates, which ultimately means declining business returns. However, the current situation creates an opportunity for companies with resilient financial positions and sufficient liquidity to seize genuine investment opportunities and secure good returns at the regional and global levels.

In conclusion, the report called upon property companies to adopt modern and more efficient investment techniques as well as unify efforts if they are to pare cumulative losses, survive current business pressures and challenges in order to maximise financial returns. They are also required to tap into new investment opportunities and launch income-generating projects regionally and globally in order to avoid further loses and control expenses.

GCC States in Good Position to Stand Ground Against Trump’s Protective Economic Measures

The region’s economy is diversified enough to maintain a competitive edge

Gulf countries are required to review local and foreign investment strategies

The Gulf property market has been beset with several challenges for a long period of time. However, despite the fast-paced and multi-faceted changes and economic developments occurring at all levels, the sector has managed to survive these challenges by adopting a series of effective measures. Economic diversification, modifying investment project launch and execution schedules, and changing types of investment from individual-domestic ones to institutional global investments are among the measures that have been taken to mitigate the increasingly high risks to cope with the developments in the region. Maintaining the competitive edge of the current and future medium and long-term investments by integrating political impact into investment strategies are among the approaches adopted to face challenges.

In its weekly real estate report, Al Mazaya Holding stated that the political affiliations of the new US President Donald Trump will have their own bearing on American investments, locally and internationally. His new policy will have an infinite impact on the economies of the Gulf region, especially those measures relevant to the energy sector. Trump’s plans are likely to create more challenges to be suffered by the major economic sectors in the region, mainly the real estate platform, which is directly affected by government spending strategies.

In this regard, the report highlighted the US president’s statements regarding his plans to streamline the permitting process for all energy companies. The report also underlined other statements related to his intention to revive the U.S. coal industry, boost  US oil and gas production, and establish a pipeline network to import about 830,000 bod from Canada, a development which is likely to put more pressure on oil prices in an already suffering industry.

The report referred to the potential impact of unstable US capital markets and US dollar on Arab investments in the US. Saudi investments in US markets are estimated at $ 7500 billion, with the trade exchange between the two countries amounting to around $ 65 billion by the end of 2015. Saudi Arabia issued up to 317 licenses for US companies to launch $52 billion worth of investments, a fact which indicates that any political or economic decisions that do not carefully consider the requirements and interests of both parties would jeopardize the two countries’ economies.

The report warned that the new US Administration’s tendency to take unilateral protective measures without consulting their European partners would destabilize the world economy. Several countries had pinned hopes on the year 2017 for economic recovery, yet it has become crystal clear that the US Administration is displaying a tendency to unilaterally usurp all investment opportunities, leaving other economic blocs all over the world in the lurch and unable to recover or gain any ground.

The report states that the current US Administration is going for more tax deductions, which has forced several companies to leave the US market. In addition, the new US president is said to be planning for a lower US dollar to make US products more competitive, not to mention other US plans to further dominate the ranks of global consumers’ favorites. The report noted that the Gulf aviation sector would likewise be affected by the new US policies, with US air carriers attempting to appeal to Trump for protection against foreign competition, mainly coming from the three core Gulf airlines: Emirates, Qatar and Etihad. These airlines’ successes over the past years have prompted hostility from US and European carriers.

The report highlighted the speculations and discrepancy in forecasts with regards to the future of the Gulf realty markets owing to the state of unsteadiness suffered by local and international markets. Trump’s stimulus plans could prompt the US to rapidly hike interest rates, which would reflect negatively on mortgage interest rates, and consequently lead to more shrinkage on property markets which are already sustaining myriad pressures in sales and rental transactions.

Conclusion

The report said the GCC states are still in a good position that enables them to stand ground vis-à-vis the new US Administration’s policies by virtue of the diversification policy and the medium and long-term plans that have been adopted. The report referred to the sovereignty funds and the trade surpluses boasted by the GCC states as a resilience factor enjoyed by the Gulf region. The GCC states, however, are required to review all the financial, economic and political decisions taken and to adopt a robust approach toward the new US investment strategy, while reconsidering the current investment plans in light of the potential changes that might be introduced to the capital markets over the coming period.

Gulf Business Sectors Required to Develop Plans and Rectify Investment Imperfections to Cope with New Local, Regional and Global Circumstances

Investors are heading to Canada and Australia in search for fresh markets

Diversifying investment projects is a significant factor that ensures success, sustainability and development. The development of solid and well-thought plans and strategies is essential to maximise financial and business gains and achieve set targets. It has become crystal clear that GCC states are following coherent approaches that help them efficiently respond to world developments, particularly with regards to investments, with the objective of developing certain mechanisms that have a direct impact on their investment environment and local economies.

In its weekly real estate report, Al Mazaya Holding noted that different business sectors need to develop their investment environment by enhancing competitiveness and attracting more capital and cash flows in order to ensure success for their small and medium-term business plans. Current data and statistics show that the region’s markets boast economic, financial and political stability that is likely to help the region’s countries safely maintain their investment quotas over the coming period with no risk exposure.

The report also noted that the Gulf countries are not classified among the markets that are suffering negative effects, nor are they able to adopt and accommodate all types of foreign investment plans. This is due to the fact that they differ in their business preparedness, readiness and capabilities. In addition, modernization and development plans are impacted by several factors, primarily financial, economic and political stability. It is this stability that directly affects competitiveness and whose absence widens the gap with top world business organisations.

The report highlighted the successes made by the UAE and Qatari markets over the past period, thanks to their readiness and adaptability to foreign business trends as well as the support given by their governments in terms of streamlining legislations, developed infrastructure facilities and high spending plans – advantages that have all reflected positively on the high growth levels secured by the two countries.

A country’s competitiveness is measured by a number of factors, atop of which comes innovation and creativity, according to the report. Cash flow freedom, bureaucracy levels and tax and customs laws are other factors that play a major role in ranking the world’s most competitive countries, with investment companies commissioning thorough studies before launching their businesses to identify a country’s ranking on the global competitiveness index guided by these factors.

The report noted that the policies adopted to privatise the public sector play a significant role in expanding private sector activities, elaborating that the stability of the stock markets and their ability to yield positive returns is of a vital importance in attracting investments. Investment-friendly laws and environment help create the required momentum on all production and service sectors.

The report highlighted the growing business opportunities created by increasing competitiveness as well as the decline in economic growth levels across the region and the whole world. Such economic circumstances have led to more synergies, mergers and acquisitions in the Gulf and global markets. Mergers are considered an efficient option that helps enhance competitiveness, growth and economic expansion amidst such a state of economic deceleration.

The region’s countries now witness a growing tendency toward synergies and mergers, with the total value of integrations concluded during 2015 amounting to $ 40 billion, while 2016’s total value of integration processes is not expected to be less than that in 2015. Such mergers aim to enhance operational efficiency and productivity vis-à-vis the current stage of economic deceleration. The tendency toward acquisition, integration and mergers steadily continues among major world companies. The region has recently witnessed 80 such processes where local companies have either been acquired or merged. In addition, Gulf companies have completed 108 mergers and acquisitions overseas worth around $17.3 billion.

The report noted that GCC states need to reinvigorate their business plans on a regular basis, redefine their marketing plans in the way that can cope with the fast-paced market changes, and opt for markets that enjoy more political and financial stability.

In this regard, the report said that Australia offers investment opportunities that entail huge capital like sovereign wealth fund investments in areas of infrastructure, ports, roads, railways, power generation, and so on. The Australian economy enjoys a highly competitive edge especially in the US, British and Japanese markets, with the Australian government now tending to attract Gulf investments. Recent data revealed that the UAE investments in Australia have exceeded $26 billion, with the bilateral trade exchange edging to more than $22 billion.

Foreign trade and economic relations mainly come through government agreements and deals, while individual investments are concentrated in areas of stock and money exchange and real estate, said the report. The Canadian market is now an investment favorite in areas of energy and maritime trade.

Recent data put UAE investments in Canada at more than AED 85 billion and trade exchange at more than AED 6 billion in 2015. A series of discussions has been held over the past period to provide momentum to Gulf-Canada economic relations and engage the Gulf’s private sector to play a more efficient role in strengthening business partnerships.

Canada and Australia are considered among the most favored investment destinations, especially in areas of real estate, which have secured positive growth over the past few years. This is a direct result of the sustained demand over different categories of residential property fueled by the increasing number of new immigrants who have triggered a demographic change in these countries and accelerated growth in the property sector.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the report said that Gulf countries are required to place more emphasis on innovation, state-of-the-art technology and strengthening their brand identity while targeting those markets that enjoy tax incentives, adding that they have to be well geared for more feasible investments.

Diversification of Projects Maintains the Momentum and Performance that Local Firms Require to Enhance Competitiveness to Survive Coming Challenges

The Building and Construction Sector is a Significant Income Generator and a Key Catalyst for Economic Recovery

The building and construction sector in the region has survived the economic challenges witnessed over the past period as a result of oil price fluctuations along with the concomitant global and regional developments. Though it has been adversely impacted by the fall in government spending, the sector has played a positive role in attracting new foreign investments to the real estate sector and other economic platforms in GCC states, thus significantly contributing to economic recovery in the region.

In its weekly real estate report, Al Mazaya Holding said the cost control policy adopted by the region’s countries has directed more focus on the construction sector, being a significant income-generating stream, with the private sector directing more attention to the construction-contracting sector as projects have continued to be established and generate investment returns. In the meantime, local firms have remained unable to compete with foreign multinationals.

The construction-contracting sector now sees a slow down in new projects due to the scourge of late payments by both the government and private developers. This makes it clear that the diversification of projects in terms of volume and time frames is not the only factor that directly impacts the performance of local contracting companies.

A stable banking sector plays a major role in ensuring successful real estate investments, said the report, underlining the benefits secured from the developers’ timely fulfilment of their financial obligations.  The report cited the state of optimism created by the Saudi real estate sector’s payment of outstanding dues estimated at SAR 80 billion to contracting companies, a move that has boosted economic activity, helped launch feasible projects, and limit the number of foreign companies defaulting and exiting local markets.

In 2016, the Saudi construction-contracting sector dropped projects worth around $266 billion, most of which are heavy investments that are not expected to yield commensurate returns. The report stated that continued austerity measures and restructuring plans in KSA, including efforts to cut budget deficit to SAR 198 billion, will have adverse direct effect on the construction-contracting sector this year, with infrastructure projects to take the lead instead.

In the meantime, the UAE realty market continues to deliver positive results, especially with the growing number of new projects being launched. Recent data revealed that the total spending on construction projects in Dubai shall amount to AED 100 billion in 2017 thanks to the fact that the contracting sector has hitherto fulfilled all its financial obligations.

In Qatar, more contracts are expected to be signed to launch new projects worth QAR 46 billion during 2017, thanks to the considerable budget allocations to mega infrastructure, healthcare, education and transportation projects. The report referred to the Qatari government’s economic diversification plan aimed at keeping the competitiveness of the contracting sector and its ability to attract investments and laborers until 2020.

The report noted that the region’s realty markets s have generally maintained their growth, with property developments expected to grow by18% during the first quarter of 2017, with associated risk levels still low.

The slump sustained by the construction sector has significantly affected the building material sector, which is known to be one of the driving forces behind the fall in prices. The report cited the 30% slide in building material prices on the Saudi market last year, attributing it to the slowdown in private and public construction operations, in addition to the state of recession suffered by the contracting sector due to the rising land prices and decline in property demand.

The report noted that the UAE’s real estate markets are now stable in the wake of the slowdown witnessed at the building and construction sector in Abu Dhabi, and the fluctuations and state of unsteadiness in Dubai.

In Qatar, there is a sustained demand for property, with prices remaining stable and even rising from time to time, which means that any potential fall in building costs would depend on how far the total costs of the ongoing projects would decrease so that they might become resilient enough to deal with market challenges.

Conclusion

The report underlined the importance of mitigating the competition between foreign multinationals and local firms, pointing out that such a heated level of competition has a negative impact on the entire market. Foreign companies are still controlling and owning most of the developmental and infrastructure projects as well as the private sector enterprises, thanks to their experience, readiness and ability to deliver projects on schedule at top quality and optimum investment returns.

Due to the slowdown witnessed in under-construction projects, the Gulf markets are now witnessing the most heated competition ever that would curb, if not mitigate, the local companies’ ability to survive the challenges over the coming years.

Integrated Plans Required to Control Property Supply in GCC States

– There is a growing tendency toward small office spaces to circumvent pressures

– Real estate investments are most secure and lucrative in the long run

The fast-paced business developments witnessed over the past period have proven in no uncertain way that the region’s countries are unable to develop any kind of reliable forecasts about business platforms without having clear-cut project plans and integrated strategies. The paradigm shift in areas of financial and economic investments has generated myriad decisions that have had their bearing on all projects, including those under execution now and those planned for the future. In the meantime, indicators showed that all types of real estate investments have proved to be the most secure and feasible over the long run. Further, it has transpired that the success of any projects, mitigation of investment risks, maximizing returns and circumventing legal and legislative obstacles all depend on the availability of realistic and genuine data and the nature of information issued by official or private authorities with regards to current or future market indicators.

In its weekly real estate report, Al Mazaya Holding said commercial property investments are the most affected by global economic and financial developments and by the financial and economic momentum witnessed locally and regionally.

The report said that the fall in government spending around the world has resulted in a decline in demand for commercial real estate projects. 2016 witnessed many remarkable developments on this score, with the demand over office spaces and other commercial real estate projects having tangibly fallen in a way that is noticeably greater than its equivalent over residential and investment property.

Regarding the region’s realty markets, the report said that Qatar has an oversupply of vacant office spaces, with the ‘tower area’ having turned out to be the most negatively affected as a result of the decline in demand by tenants despite a fall of over 20% in rental rates by the end of 2016. Statistics showed that the Qatari market would need more time to recover, with the supply of office spaces, which cover more than 600,000 square meters, thus outstripping demand. The report referred to a number of reasons that would slow down any recovery in the Qatari market over the short run, including the heated competition among landlords to attract tenants and the reluctance of some of them to reduce prices and others’ insistence to keep prices high. The report also referred to the lack of proper geography diversity with most of the residential units being concentrated only in modern areas, with old and logistics areas being marginalized and lacking development.

A slowdown was witnessed in demand over office spaces in Abu Dhabi, with demand only focused on small office spaces that are less than 500 square meters. The Dubai realty market was not different in its declining demand over office spaces as result of the fall in economic activities in general and the tendency among organizations to downsize. The report attributed this to the decline in oil prices and slowdown in all types of investment activities. The report expected this year to witness more demand over different real estate products in UAE, with luxurious office spaces situated in plush areas of distinguished locations and those in free zones to be the most attractive.

The Saudi realty market stilll enjoys a major competitive edge thanks to the government’s 2030 vision. The Saudi Vision 2030 will play a major role in forestalling a potential economic crash and in increasing demand of office spaces over the coming period. The King Abdulla Center alone has around 1.7 million square meters of office space in addition to other spaces added by the different projects implemented in major cities over the past years.

The Bahraini market is witnessing a state of stability in comparison with its neighbors, said the report, expecting this state of stability to persist over the first half of this year, provided that economic recovery should continue. The demand over office spaces is still reasonable in Bahrain, thanks to a balanced supply-demand mechanism and stable rental rates.

The Bahraini market, however, has been affected negatively by the fall in economic activities, thus resulting in reduced job vacancies as an outcome of the decline in oil prices. Such a situation has triggered austerity measures in response to the paradigm shift, primarily in areas of oil and gas, in order to avoid any potential consequences that could afflict all economic platforms, atop of which comes the real estate business.

The report added that there is a tendency among the region’s companies to opt for small office spaces in view of the current circumstances and conservative future outlook.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the report indicated that it is quite difficult to control the supply-demand mechanism by reducing rental rates due to the fact that there are other factors that govern sector performance. In order to control supply, there should be a mechanism to review the issuance of real estate licenses and to determine the right time for launching property investments.

Gulf Countries to Tap into Unconventional Investment Avenues to Strengthen Position on Global Business Map

GCC States Maintain Competitiveness Despite All Challenges

Countries of the region have had no specificity of investment over the past period, with several GCC states opting to focus on projects that yield more assured value, according to recent market research. World markets have witnessed myriad investment opportunities that are based on specific purpose planning, with Gulf nations adopting multiple approaches to circumvent losses resulting from adverse economic circumstances the region has faced. Such discretionary approaches have ultimately proved rewarding and helped these countries draw more global investments, particularly in areas of real estate.

In its weekly real estate report, Al Mazaya Holding stated that the growing heated competition between developed and emerging economies have made it difficult for all bar none to secure a share on local, regional and global markets. The report attributed this to the state of economic instability engulfing the world and the growing risks besetting the global investment environment, indicating that the focus on real estate and shares investments is an attempt to steer clear from investing in areas of energy, environment, IT and infrastructure where the governments of the region exercise full control, rendering it difficult for investors to forecast or determine potential returns and cash recovery cycles.

According to the report, real estate investments top Gulf investors’ favourites list of all types of investments, despite the state of uncertainty that loomed over the markets, eclipsing other investment platforms that only got minimal, insignificant portions of the markets. Investment in shares featured growingly high comparatively with the total value of real estate investments. The report pointed to the competitive edge enjoyed by the UAE realty market which tops the region’s list of the most attractive property markets, thanks to its investment-friendly regulations and environment, premium quality property, predictable profitability rates and highly developed infrastructure, which altogether represent a robust lever to improve the country’s competitive position in areas of real estate, globally and regionally.

The report highlighted a state of confusion and conflict in recent investment indicators due to existing unpredictable economic risks that have pushed individuals and institutions to opt for feasible investment opportunities that are easy to implement and predict. Commodity markets, especially metals and minerals, have experienced fluctuations and a severe state of unsteadiness, and were thus classified among unsafe investment options.

In the meantime, currency markets have shown high potential for growth, albeit still classified among the most risky options owing to the prevailing economic and financial fluctuations and the difficulty to predict a turnaround for the global economy. A fact which, the report said, makes it inevitable to continue to search for less risky investment opportunities that may be utilised if necessity arises, such as real estate and infrastructure investments.

The report mentioned that the healthcare sector in the region drew a big share of investments over the past 10 years due to the growing number of elderly people in the region and the consequential increasing health expenditure per capita. The GCC states’ ambitious plans to enhance their competitiveness and lead world countries in this field have sustained a long-term investment strategy in the healthcare industry, added the report.

Over the coming period, the healthcare sector may experience fair growth rates that can be reliable enough for the region’s countries to utilise as a catalyst for economic diversification should innovative approaches be adopted to give non-conventional investors access to medical care services. The report in this regard referred to available economic data purporting that the healthcare market in the region shall grow by as high as 78% by the year 2020 to reach a staggering value of $71 billion, with healthcare investments in areas of infrastructure and IT to top the list.

The report underlined the tendency among the region’s countries to tap into unconventional investment avenues over the coming few years, singling out on this score the IT sector by virtue of its significant role in the development of major economic platforms and in building real momentum by increasing exportable products. Recent data, according to the report, showed that the UAE has posted impressive results, with science and technology investments amounting to $80 billion in total value. These investments, which include renewable energy, civil aviation, aerospace-related enterprises and innovations, are conducive to concomitantly generate businesses in other sectors, consequently augmenting their contribution to the UAE GDP.

The report called upon the private sector to utilise government support for the industrial sector, which is aimed at raising its contribution to the region’s GDP from 10% to 25% by the year 2020. Industrial investments in different fields are expected to exceed $1 trillion, a staggering figure which is likely to provide growing economic impetus, create job opportunities in all sectors – primarily construction material and retail markets – and develop service-producing, finance and transportation sectors.

The report underlined the necessity of endorsing development-oriented laws, regulations and strategies to cope with the growing economic challenges regionally and globally, accelerating efforts to enable the industrial sector to play a greater role in sustaining the GCC countries’ competitiveness and production potential. The GCC states boast a lot of potential that enable them to make great strides in all domains, said the report, citing recent market research.

Conclusion

The report concluded that numerous signs point to a good year ahead, with the region’s economies expected to witness myriad investments opportunities that would yield returns better than those secured in 2016 that would help them rectify their circumstances and forge ahead with their economic diversification programmes. The unprecedented momentum expected for the region’s countries would create several direct and indirect investment opportunities for the private sector, which would increase profitability and enhance its contributions to the GDP.

Robust Real Estate Strategies Needed to Match Increase in Housing Demand

The market faces a demand-supply imbalance due to population growth

The real estate sector in the Gulf region has been beset with several challenges due to the lack of balance between population increase, new housing supply and affordability, according to industry research conducted recently. It has become necessary for GCC states to enforce groundbreaking legislations that meet the requirements of the new developments taking place with regards to freehold mechanisms in the region and to provide feasible and effective strategies conducive to circumventing potential losses, achieving positive results and ultimately ensuring market stability.

In its weekly real state report, Al Mazaya Holding mentioned that GCC states should develop robust strategies to get the right balance between housing supply and demand and conduct statistical research with the objective of developing a better understanding of the driving forces that impact the main economic platforms in the region, primarily the real estate sector. This will enable the government to come up with a set of solutions to create premium investment opportunities and launch projects that are more feasible to implement with remunerative investment yields.

The report shed light on the Gulf realty markets that are experiencing population growth and increasing demand for residential units with reference to the high population growth rates in Saudi Arabia, including the rising number of working expatriates across all the economic sectors. The KSA government has been planning to increase housing supply by 7% annually by providing 1.5 million homes to cater to different types of demand, indicated the report. The government, as part of the Saudization Programme, seeks to raise Saudi families’ ownership of property from 47% to 52% by the year 2020, noting that the capital of Riyadh currently witnesses the highest level of demand for low-cost housing units. Recent statistics showed that the number of Saudi citizens amounted to 20 million by the end of 2015, while expats are estimated at 11 million – an annual population growth of 2.11%.

The report highlighted the balance between housing supply and population growth in the UAE where the markets are witnessing a well-calculated supply of new housing units that meet different types of needs and demand. Recent data showed that houses were added to the market to meet the population growth – 5,000 in Dubai and 12,000 in Abu Dhabi. In the meantime, population growth in Dubai was estimated at 6.4% and 7% in Abu Dhabi last year, which led to a decline in housing sales as a direct result of falling oil prices, the slump in investors’ activities, slower government spending and the negative impact of a stronger dollar that pushed property prices up and discouraged foreign investors.

The Qatari realty sector is working on two levels: meeting domestic housing demand and implementing government’s plans to draw more foreign investments. The report referred to the FIFA World Cup 2020 as a robust market catalyst, with plans underway to increase housing units up to 65,000 by the end of 2019.

A set of solutions has been developed to meet increasing population growth rates in Qatar, including raising the number of residential and commercial units. This will drive a building and construction spree over the medium-term, particularly with regards to affordable housing projects that address some segments of society. Further, the report attributed the real estate investment boom in Qatar to the increasing population growth rates which exceeded 9% in early 2016, giving more momentum to the Qatari economy, currently considered among the world’s fastest growing economies.

In the Omani market, the report mentioned that the population reached 4.5 million by the end of the year 2016, a 62% increase since 2010. A large number of developmental and urban projects, including roads, airports and seaports have been developed to meet the increasing population growth rates, drawing more investments to the Omani market.

The report referred to the now-prevalent mood of optimism following the oil price stability and the likelihood of seeing a strong rebound in 2017. It also underlined the possibility of witnessing increasing demand for property should the region overcome the current geopolitical and economic challenges.

Reportedly, positive levels of liquidity are available in banks and local and foreign investors, which should reflect positively on real estate, trade and industrial activities. However, government spending will determine the success or failure of the efforts made to bridge the gap between population growth and the supply of certain types of property that meet investment requirements and cater to all needs.

Conclusion

The report underlined the significance of the role played by resilient laws on the encouragement and protection of foreign investment in existing GCC states in creating the momentum needed to maximise yields and ensure a balance between population growth, housing supply and affordability. However, the region’s countries are required to continue to seek more effective strategies to overcome the challenges faced by the real estate markets.

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